FINALLY, a jobs report that is actually decent

[bpwallace49]

I think Ice1 and Az should get into a discussion regarding the CBO . . . . .

[Ursa Majoris]

a decrease in unemployment is not the same as an increase in employment. Employment can increase while unemployment remains the same.

 

 

It seems you are arguing that 8% unemployment is somehow a good thing if it remains stable. That is a poor argument on your part regardless of how you frame it with minutia.

 

If you actually read and digested instead of fuming through your red glasses, you'd see I'm arguing no such thing. I'm merely correcting an error on your part - a significant error.

[Ice1]

name='Ursa Majoris' date='2/4/12 2:19pm' post='3625749']

If you actually read and digested instead of fuming through your red glasses, you'd see I'm arguing no such thing. I'm merely correcting an error on your part - a significant error.

Like I said:

 

Are you somehow trying to debate the word "IS" or are you trying to justify the CBO report as good news?

 

8% is 8% That is not misrepresentation but if you think it is write the CBO.

 

Rise above Ursa, your petty grammar police shtick is getting old. Interesting how you use this when unable to defend a position.

 

Thanks for playing!

I have seen people like you for years. I will leave it to others to determine if you are Loser with a capital L. Anyone that reads your posts can see it. I get your weak game of deflection because you can't argue the merits of the thread. Regardless, from my perspective you are weak closed minded individual and I am perfectly fine if you think the same about me.

 

My first post in this thread was my opinion, nothing more. Agree or disagree is fine by me.

 

Here you go!

Surprised by your comment, oh well keep it up if that floats your boat.

___________________________________________________________

 

 

The Nations unemployment numbers are absolutely terrible. The Broader U6 Measure is at 15.1%.

 

That said the trends have not been running negative for 9 months now so that is a step in the right direction for the American worker. The real reality however is the economy must add way more jobs than 200K per month or this recovery will take close to a decade. 200K barely keeps pace with population expansion.

I doubt the rate dips below 8% by election day given the significant uncertainty of tax rate expiration which is keeping well over a trillion on the sidelines but we have seen nominal movement in the unemployment rate dropping and that is a good thing. The housing numbers are still terrible with way too much inventory so construction is still a major concern which will probably drive up unemployment in coming months towards 8.8 or 8.9 by election day.

 

I will be far more optimistic when we see a long term solution on taxes which will allow business to better plan for expansion and we start seeing additions in the 400K plus range.

 

Still a positive sign but we have a very long road ahead if we do not do way way better. The CBO is not painting a positive picture at all looking at the overall economy and is projecting unemployment to remain above 8%. CBO further projects an additional 1.1 Trillion added to the deficit this year.

 

CBO

 

Your first post dealt with correcting this statement coming to the aid of Bushwacked:

 

It is stunning you would think NO projected increase in employment for the next two years is somehow good news?

 

I get it. You decided to correct this based on population expansion instead of percent even though you know good and well I was talking stagnant unemployment rates all because I didn't add the words "as a percent to unemployment"

 

That was one hell of a contribution. I actually expect no more from you as you have shown for some time you are not really capable of any meaningful contribution. Great Job, I am sure you are proud with your contribution to the site..... I am also quite sure many see you for the Major Jerk you are acting like.

 

I will say if you had any class at all you would man up and actually discuss the issues rather than simply look for a wrong word or phrase.

[bpwallace49]

Wow is ice barking up the wrong tree here. again.

[Ice1]

Wow is ice barking up the wrong tree here. again.

 

And enjoying it!

[bushwacked]

Wow is ice barking up the wrong tree here. again.

 

I, for one, am somewhat entertained by whatever Ice is trying to do to rationalize what he was wrong about.

[SayItAintSoJoe]

I doubt the rate dips below 8% by election day given the significant uncertainty of tax rate expiration which is keeping well over a trillion on the sidelines but we have seen nominal movement in the unemployment rate dropping and that is a good thing.

CBO

 

What a catch 22. We need to keep the Bush tax cuts in place in order to remove the "uncertainty" even though these cuts add trillions to the US debt.

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

That was one hell of a contribution. I actually expect no more from you as you have shown for some time you are not really capable of any meaningful contribution. Great Job, I am sure you are proud with your contribution to the site..... I am also quite sure many see you for the Major Jerk you are acting like. I will say if you had any class at all you would man up and actually discuss the issues rather than simply look for a wrong word or phrase.

 

Look at the noob who has been here for two months call out someone who has been here almost 10 years on his contribution to this site. Unless you really are another stupid alias, which i'm pretty sure you probably are.

Edited February 5, 2012 by CaP'N GRuNGe

[Ursa Majoris]

I have seen people like you for years.

I don't think you have. I think you've spent almost your entire life and your fantasy football life cocooned with others of the same viewpoint in a virtual and actual echo chamber. Now you've found a place where there are a ton of different opinions and points of view and you don't like it. It makes you uncomfortable. Well, deal with it - I like this place to be heterogeneous so I can learn from others as well as spout off.

 

You only spout off so maybe this isn't a good place for you.

[Ice1]

Look at the noob who has been here for two months call out someone who has been here almost 10 years on his contribution to this site. Unless you really are another stupid alias, which i'm pretty sure you probably are.

 

No doubt it cuts both ways, I am sure Ursa knows this. I could care less how long he has been a member or I for that matter.

 

Believe as you will as your perception is obviously your reality. The owners of this site know better and have charge my credit card accordingly.

 

Enjoy the game today.

[Ice1]

I don't think you have. I think you've spent almost your entire life and your fantasy football life cocooned with others of the same viewpoint in a virtual and actual echo chamber. Now you've found a place where there are a ton of different opinions and points of view and you don't like it. It makes you uncomfortable. Well, deal with it - I like this place to be heterogeneous so I can learn from others as well as spout off.

 

You only spout off so maybe this isn't a good place for you.

 

No issues at all with differing opinions; I made mine with the my first post in this thread unlike you. I mentioned some good and some bad. Go back and reread that post and compare it to your first post in the thread as a reference point.

 

No doubt this site heterogeneous.

[Azazello1313]

On the subject of misinterpretation, if unemployment is steady at 8% over the next two years, doesn't that constitute an increase in employment due to workforce growth? Shouldn't you be saying "decrease in unemployment" instead?

 

not if the workforce, as measure by the participation rate which is at record lows, keeps shrinking.

[Ursa Majoris]

not if the workforce, as measure by the participation rate which is at record lows, keeps shrinking.

I agree. There are a lot of moving parts to this - total participation, delayed retirement, immigration rate, actual job growth, number of people actually drawing unemployment, number of people who have exhausted unemployment, graduation rates and so on. On top of this, replacement of a decent paying manufacturing job with a minimum wage janitor position is not one for one.

 

This is why I would prefer that instead of flinging single percentages around, the whole enchilada should be examined and we should be very careful how these numbers are expressed.

[Ice1]

not if the workforce, as measure by the participation rate which is at record lows, keeps shrinking.

 

Unfortunately, in my view his post wasn't really about that as he knew what was being discussed. It was a deflection strategy to avoid discussing the merits of the actual topic.

 

At any rate, it would be great news for America if we continue to see consistent and positive job growth numbers and the CBO is wrong over the next 36 months.

Edited February 6, 2012 by Ice1

[Ice1]

I agree. There are a lot of moving parts to this - total participation, delayed retirement, immigration rate, actual job growth, number of people actually drawing unemployment, number of people who have exhausted unemployment, graduation rates and so on. On top of this, replacement of a decent paying manufacturing job with a minimum wage janitor position is not one for one.

 

This is why I would prefer that instead of flinging single percentages around, the whole enchilada should be examined and we should be very careful how these numbers are expressed.

 

For the record, had you said this when I made my post you would have some agreement. The economy is very complicated. Just to add, the CBO looks at the economy in detail which is one reason I posted their link. The number is the number but why that number, in this report, is the reason it is discussed and the reason I mentioned housing/construction as an example.

 

It wasn't really flinging a number around. The trick is what can the government do, if anything to improve on it and accelerate job growth.

Edited February 6, 2012 by Ice1

[rajncajn]

No doubt it cuts both ways, I am sure Ursa knows this. I could care less how long he has been a member or I for that matter.

 

Believe as you will as your perception is obviously your reality. The owners of this site know better and have charge my credit card accordingly.

 

Enjoy the game today.

The forums are free for us. I guess they do know better.

[Ice1]

The forums are free for us. I guess they do know better.

 

Some of us actually support the entire site through purchasing a one or two year membership. See the home link, up and to the left.

[rajncajn]

Some of us actually support the entire site through purchasing a one or two year membership. See the home link, up and to the left.

Talk to me in about 15 years.

[SayItAintSoJoe]

The number of Americans filing first- time claims for unemployment insurance payments unexpectedly declined last week, indicating the labor market recovery is gaining traction.

 

Applications for jobless benefits decreased 15,000 in the week ended Feb. 4 to 358,000, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 370,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The four-week moving average, a less-volatile measure of claims, declined to 366,250, the lowest since April 26, 2008.

 

The easing of dismissals is moving in tandem with a drop in the unemployment rate, which fell in January to a three-year low of 8.3 percent. Job creation also accelerated last month, showing the world’s largest economy is making headway in restoring the 8.3 million jobs lost during the 2007-2009 recession.

 

“The recent positive momentum over the past two months is being sustained,” said Millan Mulraine, a senior U.S. strategist at TD Securities in New York, who projected 360,000 claims. “If we stay within this range, then we should see employment growth pick up.”

 

Good news for America. Not so much for Romney.

[bushwacked]

The BLS just reported that nonfarm payroll employment rose by 243,000 in January (and revised the November numbers up to 157,000 from 100,000 and very slightly upwardly adjusted the December number from 200,000 to 203,000).

 

The unemployment rate fell to 8.3% from 8.5%, while U-6 (the broadest measure of labor market underutilization) slightly dropped to 15.1% (down from 15.2% in December, 15.6% in November, and 16.0% in October).

 

We only need another 3-4 years of monthly reports like this and the economy will be back to where it should be. :sigh:

 

 

Sounds like February was another encouraging month.

 

 

Hiring remained strong in February, fueling optimism about the recovery. Employers added 227,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department reported Friday. While that's a pinch slower than in January, hiring was still better than economists had expected.Three straight months of job growth over 200,000 is considered a strong sign for the recovery going forward. Economists called the report "encouraging," "robust," and even claimed the job market "has turned a corner." Good news also came from revisions to prior data, which show employers added 61,000 more jobs than the Labor Department had originally reported in January and December.

[Big John]