First three rounds of another draft

[DMD]

This was from another "magazine" draft. Non-PPR and yet still seeing those QBs and WRs coming in earlier than normally because of last year (which pretty much never repeats obtw).

 

Four guys are being the most interesting to me in drafts other than Ryan Mathews that we've already discussed:

 

1.10 Chris Johnson (Last year was horrible and offense changes to pass more)

1.11 Trent Richardson (never played a down yet for a crappy NFL offense no less)

1.12 Darren McFadden (does 8 monster games compensate for 8 weeks with zero?)

2.11 Adrian Peterson (Stud vs. blown ACL - which should get more respect?)

 

Which of those players do you think are correctly slotted for your preferences? First round RBs are not supposed to be risky, are they?

 

The first three rounds:

 

 

 

1.01 RB Arian Foster

1.02 RB Ray Rice

1.03 RB LeSean McCoy

1.04 WR Calvin Johnson

1.05 QB Aaron Rodgers

1.06 QB Cam Newton

1.07 RB Maurice Jones-Drew

1.08 RB Ryan Mathews

1.09 QB Tom Brady

1.10 RB Chris Johnson

1.11 RB Trent Richardson

1.12 RB Darren McFadden

2.01 WR Larry Fitzgerald

2.02 WR A.J. Green

2.03 QB Drew Brees

2.04 WR Andre Johnson

2.05 WR Hakeem Nicks

2.06 WR Wes Welker

2.07 TE Rob Gronkowski

2.08 RB Marshawn Lynch

2.09 RB DeMarco Murray

2.10 TE Jimmy Graham

2.11 RB Adrian Peterson

2.12 WR Greg Jennings

3.01 QB Matthew Stafford

3.02 WR Jordy Nelson

3.03 WR Roddy White

3.04 WR Brandon Marshall

3.05 WR Mike Wallace

3.06 WR Julio Jones

3.07 RB Matt Forte

3.08 WR Steve Smith

3.09 RB Michael Turner

3.10 WR Demaryius Thomas

3.11 WR Victor Cruz

3.12 RB Fred Jackson

[Donutrun Jellies]

With his schedule this year, Michael Turner may prove to be a nice pickup at 3.09 as the 13th RB taken. Could be very solid value there?

[piratesownninjas]

AJ Green at 2.2 in a redraft non dynasty league is foolish in my opinion. From week 8 through the end of the year he was the no.26 WR in ppr scoring I understand him going high, as he has a massive amount of potential, but I think some are discounting vets that have proven what they can do on a consistent level. I don't doubt that he'll eventually become an elite WR1, but I just don't think it happens this year.

I also don't think the Nelson pick at 3.2 will pay off. If anyone in the NFL had a flukey year, it was him. How he goes ahead of White and Wallace is beyond me. 68 receptions off of 94 targets will be difficult to repeat. Turning those 68 receptions into 1260-15 is beyond difficult. I expect Finley and Cobb to both step up there game, and Nelson to be closer to 70-1000-6

[Jackass]

welker looks at least a round too high, esp. in non-ppr. Don't think i like Demarco Murray that high either.

[piratesownninjas]

welker looks at least a round too high, esp. in non-ppr. Don't think i like Demarco Murray that high either.

 

Hard to argue against 1600 yards and 9 TDs he put up last year.

I agree with Murray as well. He blew up against the no. 31 and 32 ranked rush defenses last year.

[Bronco Billy]

C'mon. 3 QBs in the top 9 picks? What "magazine" was this and where did they hire the monkeys to pretend they were FF expurts?

[DMD]

Every draft resembles the previous year and we had 3 big scoring QBs. In a non-PPR, QBs score even more in relation to other positions. I imagine that rookie WRs will go too early after the success of last year with AJ Green and Julio Jones and others. There wasn't many high scoring RBs last year and that means they last longer as people are taking more sure things with WRs (though the reality is probably the same 50% chance of repeating last year as any position has).

 

If you can figure out who the top guys are this year, then you build a championship team. Most people do the natural thing and build the best team they can for the year that already happened.

[godtomsatan]

Every draft resembles the previous year and we had 3 big scoring QBs. In a non-PPR, QBs score even more in relation to other positions.

 

 

That's not true. Aaron Rodgers scored 63% more points than the replacement level QB. Ray Rice scored 101% more points than a replacement level RB. Calvin Johnson scored 148% more points than replacement level WR. Rob Gronkowski scored 151% more points than a replacement level TE.

 

In "standard scoring", a QB is going to put up more overall points than most position players will, however that doesn't give them a higher value whatsoever. There's a spot in the later parts of the first round where an elite QB may be worth taking over the RB and WR on the board, but it certainly isn't at the #5 and #6 spots in the draft.

 

I imagine that rookie WRs will go too early after the success of last year with AJ Green and Julio Jones and others.

 

 

Except that no rookie that got drafted this year ended up in remotely as attractive a position that Green and Jones ended up in last year. They certainly may have outperformed their fantasy draft positions, but I doubt there's many folks lining up to grab Blackmon because of what Green did last year (or Floyd or Wright or whomever).

[DMD]

That's not true. Aaron Rodgers scored 63% more points than the replacement level QB. Ray Rice scored 101% more points than a replacement level RB. Calvin Johnson scored 148% more points than replacement level WR. Rob Gronkowski scored 151% more points than a replacement level TE.

 

In "standard scoring", a QB is going to put up more overall points than most position players will, however that doesn't give them a higher value whatsoever. There's a spot in the later parts of the first round where an elite QB may be worth taking over the RB and WR on the board, but it certainly isn't at the #5 and #6 spots in the draft.

 

 

 

I completely understand player value both within positions and between positions and you can certainly be 100% correct but all I am saying is that people will draft mostly based on the results of the previous season. When I came up with LAG anaylsis, it was to help people better understand value in their own leagues.

 

Last year in a non-PPR league I was in that should be fairly typical, the top players were Rodgers (385), Brees (380), Newton (353), Brady (352), Stafford (333), Rice (283), Manning (273), McCoy (270), Romo, Ryan, Calvin Johnson (254), MJD (249), Rivers, Foster (238), Gronk (233).

 

Basically, QBs were king with 8 of the top 11 scorers and the top 4 a big advantage. People remember that even though it was a historic year for passing stats. People are jumping all over Gronkowski and Graham early too looking for an advantage. Understandable and practical IF they can deliver like last year though too they were both setting historic highs for the position.

 

Bottom line, people draft based on what they remember from last year and it was a freakish good year for QB and TE and a bad year for RB.

[White lightning]

I would never take Cam Newton at 1.06, especially considering his passing numbers were significantly declining in the second half of the year and there IS NO WAY he comes close to his rushing TD total of 2011 (See 2010 Vick vs. 2011 Vick)

[Bronco Billy]

David is correct in his headline premise that a lot of FFers draft from last year's league and tend to look backward rather than forward. I also believe gts is also 100% correct in that value should be one of the primary determinants of draft position (hence my monkey comment). I also believe David is mucking up his point a bit by confusing his emphasis with discussion on pts scored, which is an independent discussion, and gts is mucking his discussion a bit with percentages rather than actual value - which is admittedly different depending upon scoring and starting requirements.

 

Now if we get this discussion addressing future projections inclusive of regression to means in terms of both league and individual performances, player performance trending, and then add actual value - now you've got a topic we can really sink our teeth into.

[Savage Beatings]

Now if we get this discussion addressing future projections inclusive of regression to means in terms of both league and individual performances, player performance trending, and then add actual value - now you've got a topic we can really sink our teeth into.

 

 

 

.

[Mr. Retail]

This was from another "magazine" draft. Non-PPR and yet still seeing those QBs and WRs coming in earlier than normally because of last year (which pretty much never repeats obtw).

 

Four guys are being the most interesting to me in drafts other than Ryan Mathews that we've already discussed:

 

1.10 Chris Johnson (Last year was horrible and offense changes to pass more)

1.11 Trent Richardson (never played a down yet for a crappy NFL offense no less)

1.12 Darren McFadden (does 8 monster games compensate for 8 weeks with zero?)

2.11 Adrian Peterson (Stud vs. blown ACL - which should get more respect?)

 

Which of those players do you think are correctly slotted for your preferences? First round RBs are not supposed to be risky, are they?

 

The first three rounds:

 

 

 

1.01 RB Arian Foster

1.02 RB Ray Rice

1.03 RB LeSean McCoy

1.04 WR Calvin Johnson

1.05 QB Aaron Rodgers

1.06 QB Cam Newton

1.07 RB Maurice Jones-Drew

1.08 RB Ryan Mathews

1.09 QB Tom Brady

1.10 RB Chris Johnson

1.11 RB Trent Richardson

1.12 RB Darren McFadden

2.01 WR Larry Fitzgerald

2.02 WR A.J. Green

2.03 QB Drew Brees

2.04 WR Andre Johnson

2.05 WR Hakeem Nicks

2.06 WR Wes Welker

2.07 TE Rob Gronkowski

2.08 RB Marshawn Lynch

2.09 RB DeMarco Murray

2.10 TE Jimmy Graham

2.11 RB Adrian Peterson

2.12 WR Greg Jennings

3.01 QB Matthew Stafford

3.02 WR Jordy Nelson

3.03 WR Roddy White

3.04 WR Brandon Marshall

3.05 WR Mike Wallace

3.06 WR Julio Jones

3.07 RB Matt Forte

3.08 WR Steve Smith

3.09 RB Michael Turner

3.10 WR Demaryius Thomas

3.11 WR Victor Cruz

3.12 RB Fred Jackson

 

This was from another "magazine" draft. Non-PPR and yet still seeing those QBs and WRs coming in earlier than normally because of last year (which pretty much never repeats obtw).

 

Four guys are being the most interesting to me in drafts other than Ryan Mathews that we've already discussed:

 

1.10 Chris Johnson (Last year was horrible and offense changes to pass more)

1.11 Trent Richardson (never played a down yet for a crappy NFL offense no less)

1.12 Darren McFadden (does 8 monster games compensate for 8 weeks with zero?)

2.11 Adrian Peterson (Stud vs. blown ACL - which should get more respect?)

 

Which of those players do you think are correctly slotted for your preferences? First round RBs are not supposed to be risky, are they?

 

The first three rounds:

 

 

 

1.01 RB Arian Foster

1.02 RB Ray Rice

1.03 RB LeSean McCoy

1.04 WR Calvin Johnson

1.05 QB Aaron Rodgers

1.06 QB Cam Newton

1.07 RB Maurice Jones-Drew

1.08 RB Ryan Mathews

1.09 QB Tom Brady

1.10 RB Chris Johnson

1.11 RB Trent Richardson

1.12 RB Darren McFadden

2.01 WR Larry Fitzgerald

2.02 WR A.J. Green

2.03 QB Drew Brees

2.04 WR Andre Johnson

2.05 WR Hakeem Nicks

2.06 WR Wes Welker

2.07 TE Rob Gronkowski

2.08 RB Marshawn Lynch

2.09 RB DeMarco Murray

2.10 TE Jimmy Graham

2.11 RB Adrian Peterson

2.12 WR Greg Jennings

3.01 QB Matthew Stafford

3.02 WR Jordy Nelson

3.03 WR Roddy White

3.04 WR Brandon Marshall

3.05 WR Mike Wallace

3.06 WR Julio Jones

3.07 RB Matt Forte

3.08 WR Steve Smith

3.09 RB Michael Turner

3.10 WR Demaryius Thomas

3.11 WR Victor Cruz

3.12 RB Fred Jackson

 

 

 

 

I like Chris Johnson and Trent Richardson out of the 4 guys you listed. I wont touch AP and DMC has to be a very good value for me, but he will go in the first also