chiroacademy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I have played match up week to week with defenses. This is my first year in fantasy football and I'm just learning. Can you predict with some degree of certainty who is the best team to start and if so what metrics would you use to choose a team? There are so many variables it just seems like a random crap shoot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kidsgotsoul Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Well there's the obvious matchups with bad teams. It's worth looking for teams that turn the ball over a lot. KC is just a mess right now so if you're fortunate enough to grab a D/ST going against them you should be set. The Eagles are another team you can target for matchups, as they turn the ball over a lot. Otherwise just try to target teams that have matchups with weak offenses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Kind of depends. If you've got Chicago or your league really rewards Ds based on pts allowed and you have SF, you stick with them every time. Otherwise, you play the match-ups. Because I'm almost never prepared to take a top D at the point in the draft where they end up going, I usually end up with option 2. That is, unless I get lucky and the late round D I grab ends up being an every week starter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiroacademy Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 Would IND or DAL be a good example this week? IND faces JAC and DAL against PHI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 There are formulas out there for predicting team defense production if you search. They are typically not good early in the season, but get better as the season moves along. Some guy with a username plindey (I Think) used to do a weekly calc and post it on a free site somewhere. I caution you when using free stuff, though....sometimes you get what you pay for In answer to your question in general, I prefer to find a top 12 defense and ride it. Drafting a defense is not usually high on my draft strategy priority list because they are so unpredictable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiroacademy Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 I went with DET last week because the numbers just made sense to me. It worked out OK I got 8 points based on our D scoring system. Based on what's available IND, NYJ @ SEA or DAL @ PHI is what I'm looking at. I would love to have the Bears but I'm left to what ever is avail. and have to play best match up available. It sure seems it would be easier to get a top 10 D and ride it out versus the match up strategy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinatown dragons Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Kind of depends. If you've got Chicago or your league really rewards Ds based on pts allowed and you have SF, you stick with them every time. Otherwise, you play the match-ups. Because I'm almost never prepared to take a top D at the point in the draft where they end up going, I usually end up with option 2. That is, unless I get lucky and the late round D I grab ends up being an every week starter. I agree with this. if you have a top D like Chicago, you stick with that d. I have changed D about 4 times so far (Bills.....Falcons....Lions, and now Steelers, vs Chiefs this week), and play the match up. it hasnt hurt me that much (8-1) as besides teams like Bears, Niners, D's are pertty close with stats....a few weeks ago, Dolphins had huge game against jets...past week, 1 pt..... look at matchups, roll with D against weak, turn over prone teams Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papajohn Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I have played match up week to week with defenses. This is my first year in fantasy football and I'm just learning. Can you predict with some degree of certainty who is the best team to start and if so what metrics would you use to choose a team? There are so many variables it just seems like a random crap shoot. Last year I would have said yes, because it worked out extremely well for me. This year I will say no because I have missed on ever defense so far. My point is that defenses are really hard to predict. Especially on a weekly basis. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Would IND or DAL be a good example this week? IND faces JAC and DAL against PHI. I have Falcons D who I thought was pretty good, played them against PHI last week expecting some decent points, and got 3 (1 sack and 2 points for scoring under 20). After all the turnovers the Eagles gave up this season they had zero in that game. Either of those you mentioned might be good plays this week, or they could get you just a few points. Defenses are very hard to predict, even looking at their opponents who are bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 In answer to your question in general, I prefer to find a top 12 defense and ride it. Drafting a defense is not usually high on my draft strategy priority list because they are so unpredictable. Yep, usually wait until after the "top" defenses are taken and then look for 1 or 2 that I really like to be a surprise. This year, however, it kind of backfired as I went heavy on the Jets D to rebound. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzook76 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I am going with the Dallas Cowboys for this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v0dka Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 You play the defense that will score the most points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorcher Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Look up the KC schedule and stay 1- 2 weeks ahead on the teams available that play them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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