The Official Vegas line on JAC at DEN

[DMD]

26.5

 

Wow.

[wpayers]

That .5 really gives me pause.

[MTSuper7]

I'll take Jax with those points, if only because Henne is starting. Plus, say Denver gets up 41-10 in the 4th and lets off the gas pedal... all it will take is a garbage TD for Denver to fail to cover the spread. If Gabbert was playing, I might prefer Denver with the points.

[Bronco Billy]

I'll take DEN at that number. I was honestly expecting 29 to 29.5

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

what is the over / under for minutes Peyton will play ?

my guess is 38 ( they pull him hale way thru the 3rd )

[wpayers]

what is the over / under for minutes Peyton will play ?

my guess is 38 ( they pull him hale way thru the 3rd )

 

I think that's the key issue. If Peyton plays 4qtrs and continues his march to the sea than I'll give the 26.5. I'm assuming the alchemists is Vegas figure he won't play the entire game, thus the number. Those boys are extraordinarily bright and don't like losing.

[MTSuper7]

I'll take DEN at that number. I was honestly expecting 29 to 29.5

 

 

I know it's Jax, but you give Denver's D too much credit.

[Bronco Billy]

 

 

I know it's Jax, but you give Denver's D too much credit.

 

 

I don't think JAX can score enough to stay within 4 TDs. They just don't have enough O and they just lost Joekel for the season.

 

JAX is averaging barely 10 ppg for the season and have given up 34 or more pts in each of their last 3 games.

 

 

Edited October 9, 2013 by Bronco Billy

[Gopher]

Blowouts tend to be unpredictable. My initial thought, when I first saw the line on Monday, was that the over was the best option (at that time it was 51 or 51.5). In other words, if I had to pick a side, that's what I would choose, but I'd prefer to just stay away altogether. I could see Denver scoring somewhere between 42 and 55 points, and Jacksonville scoring somewhere between 0 and 17. With those numbers in mind, I like the chances of the total being 52 or higher. At 53.5 (what it is now), I'm a little bit less comfortable with the over (and would stay away altogether even more than before).

[Gopher]

Here were my thoughts from another thread that got derailed... Pay particular attention to the part in bold, though, as I don't want anybody coming back here on Monday and crying because they took my advice. My thought is stay away... Too many unknowns, particularly regarding Jacksonville (QB situation, how much Blackmon changes their offense, whether they can score against Denver's D like everyone else has, etc.).

 

If I absolutely had to bet on the DEN-JAC game, I think I'd take the over. Denver is averaging 46 points per game, but they're also giving up nearly 28 per game. Granted, the Jacksonville offense is far more anemic than anybody they've faced so far, but considering how quickly/methodically Denver tends to score, any opponent of theirs is bound to score at least a few points. Blackmon adds another dimension to the Jaguars' passing attack (I use the term "attack" lightly), and I see Jacksonville scoring at least a couple of times in that game... if nothing else, in garbage time.

 

I'm saying 45-14, but it wouldn't at all surprise me if Denver beats the O/U of 51.5 all by themselves (I could easily see the score being 52-0 or 52-7, with Denver scoring about 42 of those points in the first 2 1/2 quarters). On the flip-side, I could see a 42-17 type of game, which is why I'm more confident in the over than I am Denver covering the 28 points. You just never know what's going to happen in a blow-out, and it's almost a sure thing that this game will be that.

 

All of that said, I pretty much suck at betting on football, so please keep that in mind.

 

Playing devil's advocate, the game could very well end 35-0. Honestly, I'd probably stay away from this one altogether. But, if I had to pick a side, I'd lean towards the over, simply based on what I've seen from Denver (on both sides of the ball) through five weeks. I actually think the DEN defense might be better than the numbers imply... When you score as much as they have, it's hard not to give up some points, for a variety of reasons (not the least of which is simply that there is more garbage time).

 

[Gopher]

Or maybe tease Denver and the over, down to where they just have to win by 3 TD's, with the over being 46.5 (the spread I'm seeing today is 27.5).

[BeeR]

I'll take Jax with those points,

 

In a heartbeat. This is the NFL. How many times have you seen a game and said one would destroy the other, no question about it, only to have a close game or the terrible team win? No I'm not predicting that, but it happens all the time. Good teams have bad days and pathetic teams have equally baffling good ones. 26 pts in this day and age is unheard of.

[Bronco Billy]

In a heartbeat. This is the NFL. How many times have you seen a game and said one would destroy the other, no question about it, only to have a close game or the terrible team win? No I'm not predicting that, but it happens all the time. Good teams have bad days and pathetic teams have equally baffling good ones. 26 pts in this day and age is unheard of.

 

.

 

JAX was a 19.5 dog at SEA and was down by 31 in the third quarter when they pulled Russell and put in T Jackson. SEA still won by 28.

 

I guess I do believe JAX is that bad, especially now that they don't have their starting LT, and I also believe that Manning won't leave the game until DEN is up more than the 31 SEA was.