flemingd Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Mel Kiper is considered a joke by real scouts. He is incapable of really evaluating players and simply uses information gathered by others to make his lists. If anyone thought Sam was ever higher than a mid-round draft pick they are clueless as to what the NFL is looking for. He was an excellent college player, but that does not mean he'll make it in the NFL. I still think he'll get drafted as an edge pass rush specialist sometime after the 3rd round. After that the only thing that will matter to whichever team has him is if he can help them win football games or not. If they feel he can't he'll be on the street and it will have nothing to do with him being gay, but instead with him not being a NFL caliber player. He might be a joke in terms of deep talent evaluation, but it's not hard to predict the top of a class. Bigger faster stronger better = higher draft picks. My point wasn't about Kiper, it was about Sam. He was good enough, recently, to not have been excluded from those lists. After deeper film study it's becoming clearer that he's going to have challenges, in particular because of his size and lack of a body he'll be able to add much good weight to, but prior to that deep look it's very possible for a guy like Sam and his production to be highly projected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sausagekingchi Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 (edited) He might be a joke in terms of deep talent evaluation, but it's not hard to predict the top of a class. Bigger faster stronger better = higher draft picks. My point wasn't about Kiper, it was about Sam. He was good enough, recently, to not have been excluded from those lists. After deeper film study it's becoming clearer that he's going to have challenges, in particular because of his size and lack of a body he'll be able to add much good weight to, but prior to that deep look it's very possible for a guy like Sam and his production to be highly projected. I know you weren't necessarily endorsing Kiper as the last word on scouting. The fact that Kiper was used as evidence of Sam once being thought of as a top NFL prospect is what I had an issue with. My point is that only someone like Kiper would make that mistake of having him ranked that high as a NFL prospect based on what people expected out of him going into the college season. Predicting what a guy will do in college is irrelevant to his pro prospect status (Kiper doesn't understand that, even after 30 years of doing this). That is why guys like Kiper don't know what they are talking about. Sam's physical measurements were what they were and his frame is what it is. Based simply on that at no point should anyone, especially someone who does this for a living like Kiper, have ever thought of him as a top NFL prospect. I had not seen anyone else rank Sam that high going into last year (what other lists did you see him on?). If someone did they didn't do their homework and I'd avoid their "expertise" in the future. Edited February 13, 2014 by sausagekingchi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flemingd Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I know you weren't necessarily endorsing Kiper as the last word on scouting. The fact that Kiper was used as evidence of Sam once being thought of as a top NFL prospect is what I had an issue with. My point is that only someone like Kiper would make that mistake of having him ranked that high as a NFL prospect based on what people expected out of him going into the college season. That's the rub though. Until you've done extensive film work on a guy these things don't come out. No one's doing that on most underclassmen. It's very easy for a guy like Sam to wither under the microscope. Casey Paschal, Logan Thomas, Taj Boyd, even to an extent AJ McCarron - all those guys were the top of the QB class 8 months ago. Go look at whoever you think is reputable and check their rankings a year ago. You'll laugh, then you'll realize it's not about being right, or being good or bad at it, it's the nature of how a bunch of kids grow, mature, and learn so quickly. Kiper is fine at what he does. He understands the qualities that NFL guys generally go for, then look for kids with those qualities. Of course he misses a few, so do NFL guys. The Steelers and Packers are some of the best drafting teams out there yet go look at their last 5 years and you'll see a ton of misses too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sausagekingchi Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 That's the rub though. Until you've done extensive film work on a guy these things don't come out. No one's doing that on most underclassmen. It's very easy for a guy like Sam to wither under the microscope. Casey Paschal, Logan Thomas, Taj Boyd, even to an extent AJ McCarron - all those guys were the top of the QB class 8 months ago. Go look at whoever you think is reputable and check their rankings a year ago. You'll laugh, then you'll realize it's not about being right, or being good or bad at it, it's the nature of how a bunch of kids grow, mature, and learn so quickly. Kiper is fine at what he does. He understands the qualities that NFL guys generally go for, then look for kids with those qualities. Of course he misses a few, so do NFL guys. The Steelers and Packers are some of the best drafting teams out there yet go look at their last 5 years and you'll see a ton of misses too. It doesn't matter if they did film work on the him or not (never mind that he started 9 games in 2012 which would mean there is plenty of tape available). You know what his frame is without ever seeing him on film. If you knew what his frame was there is zero chance of you putting him as a top NFL prospect as a DE regardless if you ever saw him on tape. If you do so otherwise you're being careless or you are just an idiot. Your statement that no one is looking at underclassmen on film is ridiculous. If you are on a list of top NFL prospects every scout has all ready done extensive film work on you regardless of what year you are. Not to mention a lot of underclassmen come out for the draft so why wouldn't they be scouting these guys? I guess you figure guys just say "screw it, we'll figure it out later and not do our actual job". Not sure where you get your list of top QB prospects heading into the college season (probably Kiper looking at those names), but the list I looked at prior to last season had Teddy Bridgewater (an underclassmen - impossible) listed at #1, followed by Manziel (another underclassmen - I see a trend forming) as top NFL prospects. The only two guys on your list that I recall being on the one I looked at were Boyd and McCarron. McCarron will be drafted and Boyd will at the very least be on some team's roster this upcoming pre-season. And since we are talking about NFL prospect lists Sam wasn't listed on any scouts list heading into 2013 I pay attention to. I saw 22 different DE's and 25 different "hybrid" (DE/OLB) prospects names heading into the 2013 college season and Sam's name wasn't mentioned once except for one guy having him as an honorable mention but stated the same exact things people are saying now: too small, won't get bigger so can't play DE, don't know if he can cover or even pivot well enough to convert to OLB. Yeah I'm aware that NFL scouts miss and that guys that were overlooked going into the draft turn out to be All-Pro players. You can like Kiper all you want, but as Bill Tobin once said: "Mel Kiper has no more credentials to do what he's doing than my neighbor, and my neighbor's a postman and he doesn't even have season tickets to the NFL". This is what any credible talent evaluator in the business thinks of Kiper. Kiper's strong suit is gathering other people's information and organizing it. Whenever he goes against the grain he almost always misses because he personally can't evaluate talent (Jimmy Clausen jumps to mind as someone from a recent draft that Kiper thought the world of who sucked). You also never responded to where or whose list you saw Sam on as a top NFL prospect outside of Kiper's prior to the season. Until you can shed some light on that I'll continue to take issue with you using Kiper's list of top NFL prospects because that list is a joke due to the guy choosing it. Sam was not any credible list heading into the season and that is the bottom-line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flemingd Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 You're clearly not listening to my point, and I'm not here for pissing matches. Just keep thinking the way you do if it works for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sausagekingchi Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 (edited) You're clearly not listening to my point, and I'm not here for pissing matches. Just keep thinking the way you do if it works for you. You were trying to make a case that Sam was thought of by people as a top NFL prospect. You used Mel Kiper's preseason prospect list as evidence that he was once thought of as a top talent. My point was that Mel Kiper's list is total and utter garbage and should not be looked at all concerning who is and isn't a top prospect. You can listen to whomever you like when it comes to who is or isn't an NFL prospect. As for me I'm going to go with actual talent evaluator's opinions instead of a pretend one. Edited February 14, 2014 by sausagekingchi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Here's the thing about Sam. No matter what people think, he IS an NFL prospect. Just like every other 4th - 7th round guy. They ALL have question marks. But he does have talent. It's not like he got SEC defensive player of the year because he was some turd. The shame will be that he won't get drafted because of the gay issue and people will lean on the "perception" all of a sudden that he really wasn't an NFL prospect to begin with. Which is total bullcrap. Minus the gay issue, he's drafted by the 4th or 5th round EASILY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The projections i saw were 3rd or 4th round. I don't follow college football so really have no clue, but from what i've read it would have been surprising if he wasn't drafted prior to this news coming out. The combine could change that projection, but sure it is possible he's undrafted. I don't think that will happen though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
devilwoman Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Heck yeah, Seattle would take Sam in a heart beat if he fell to the 7th round or was undrafted. Seems we have a knack for finding undrafted players It will be interesting to see what happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Here's the thing about Sam. No matter what people think, he IS an NFL prospect. Just like every other 4th - 7th round guy. They ALL have question marks. But he does have talent. It's not like he got SEC defensive player of the year because he was some turd. The shame will be that he won't get drafted because of the gay issue and people will lean on the "perception" all of a sudden that he really wasn't an NFL prospect to begin with. Which is total bullcrap. Minus the gay issue, he's drafted by the 4th or 5th round EASILY. Maybe. Or maybe he flops in the combine and goes undrafted and everyone cries that its because he's a bologna smuggler. We'll see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sausagekingchi Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Well after that extremely poor performance at the combine he may very well fall off some teams boards all together. A poor showing at the combine along with a bad Senior Bowl usually spell doom for guys who are considered tweeners. He'll need to improve on all of his numbers on his pro day or he could be quickly headed to that long list of undrafted rookie free agents. If he does I still think a team will sign him based off his college production alone, but he'll need to really impress on special teams to have a chance of sticking to a roster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Heck yeah, Seattle would take Sam in a heart beat if he fell to the 7th round or was undrafted. Seems we have a knack for finding undrafted players It will be interesting to see what happens. Wow. Long time no see ! How are you ? I hope all is well. A blast from the past Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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