MTSuper7 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 What's the most effective way to determine the cost of taking a tier 1 QB vs. waiting and grabbing one later? The experts generally say you should wait on QB this year, QB is deep, blah blah blah... But at some point, if everyone is waiting on QB, it ought to make sense to take one, right? I'm thinking that the mathematical answer would be to see how that decision affects the average points for the worst starting player. For instance, if I take a tier 1 QB in the 3rd round, let's say that means that instead of getting my top 3 RBs in tiers 1, 2 and 3, I end up with RBs in tiers 1, 3 and 4. Therefore, I would look at what the average total points of a tier 2 RB is and compare that to the average of a tier 4 RB (since I gave up the tier 2 RB opportunity to get a QB1, and assuming I've done some analysis on scoring in my league to know what to expect). That represents the average number of RB points that I am giving up by selecting QB instead of RB in round 3. I would need that number to be smaller than the difference in average points between a tier 1 QB and a tier 2 QB to justify taking the QB if I'm thinking about this correctly. Sorry for such a post, but I just want to make sure I've got my head on straight here. It seems like QB scoring needs to really be slanted toward QBs in order to see the required drop off from the top guys to justify picking one early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 I think you have to factor in league size, starting requirements and scoring as well. I find drafting with an algorithm to be cumbersome and go by feel. I don't know how to make the math support up but top 3 QBs dropping past round 4 are draftable IMO. Otherwise I'm looking at 6-8 being gone (in 12 team leagues) to consider picking one. But knowing league tendencies effects this as well. Drafted last night and 2 other guys and myself waited until the 12 round (10 team league) but 10 or 11 were off the board in a system with devalued QB scoring (4 pts per passing TD) all that said, I'm not a fan of using math to draft 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 I think you have to factor in league size, starting requirements and scoring as well. I find drafting with an algorithm to be cumbersome and go by feel. I don't know how to make the math support up but top 3 QBs dropping past round 4 are draftable IMO. Otherwise I'm looking at 6-8 being gone (in 12 team leagues) to consider picking one. But knowing league tendencies effects this as well. Drafted last night and 2 other guys and myself waited until the 12 round (10 team league) but 10 or 11 were off the board in a system with devalued QB scoring (4 pts per passing TD) all that said, I'm not a fan of using math to draft and the countdown is on until the 4 pt vs 6 pt td doesn't matter starts. And the "you should never draft a qb until the late rds" crowd shows up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 and the countdown is on until the 4 pt vs 6 pt td doesn't matter starts. And the "you should never draft a qb until the late rds" crowd shows up. Why would it matter that QBs score 4 points or 6 points? What matters is the relative value of QBs top to bottom. If you draft Aaron Rodgers in the first round and he scores 350 points on the year and I draft Matt Ryan in the 10th round and he scores 300 points. Is that 50 points spread out over 16 weeks worth taking Aaron Rodgers in the first round? Of course the real difficulty when you decide to take a QB early is figuring out which 2 maybe 3 QB will distinguish themselves this year to possibly warrant taking them in the early rounds. If you draft a QB early and he isn't one of the top 2 or 3 that year then it all likelihood you paid too high a price for your QB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anismith Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 How could TD value not matter? Imagine that TD's were 400 pts per TD for QB's. Then the difference between Rodgers and Ryan would not be 50 pts, it would be 5000 pts--if we assume that he scores 12-13 fewer touchdowns then Rodgers. I haven't done the math to figure out if 6 vs. 4 matters enough, but those who say it can't matter I think are wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Def. Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 How could TD value not matter? Imagine that TD's were 400 pts per TD for QB's. Then the difference between Rodgers and Ryan would not be 50 pts, it would be 5000 pts--if we assume that he scores 12-13 fewer touchdowns then Rodgers. I haven't done the math to figure out if 6 vs. 4 matters enough, but those who say it can't matter I think are wrong. Hook, Line, and Sinker... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 How could TD value not matter? Imagine that TD's were 400 pts per TD for QB's. Then the difference between Rodgers and Ryan would not be 50 pts, it would be 5000 pts--if we assume that he scores 12-13 fewer touchdowns then Rodgers. I haven't done the math to figure out if 6 vs. 4 matters enough, but those who say it can't matter I think are wrong. If QBs scored 400 points per TD then your RBs and WRs would also be scoring that much. You can't just consider the value of your QBs you have to consider the value of the other players on your squad. So how does QB-RB-WR-RB compare to RB-WR-RB-WR-QB type of thing. In your silly example the 5000 point difference wouldn't be as relevant as you think because instead of weekly scores of 100 you would have weekly scores 10,000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 :popcorn: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaft Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 "Dissecting QB Value in Fantasy Football" The study in the article also looked at 6 pt TDs. I think what people have a hard time accepting is that say if Drew Brees falls to round 9 they see that as good "value" but it isn't a value when he's the 5th QB off the board...the value among QBs isn't relative to the round they are drafted in as much as where they are drafted versus other QBs. And the value difference among the position when coupled with replacement value screams to wait on QB. That is until someone devises a scoring system that can truly bring difference among the position. Points/completion and negative points for incompletions could be a part of that as could increasing TD value greater than 6 pts (not sure how much greater) but most people don't accept change all that well. But then there's the balancing act of making sure you don't create a system where the top 2-3 QBs give a team so much of an edge that no one else can compete. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 What's the most effective way to determine the cost of taking a tier 1 QB vs. waiting and grabbing one later? The experts generally say you should wait on QB this year, QB is deep, blah blah blah... But at some point, if everyone is waiting on QB, it ought to make sense to take one, right? I'm thinking that the mathematical answer would be to see how that decision affects the average points for the worst starting player. For instance, if I take a tier 1 QB in the 3rd round, let's say that means that instead of getting my top 3 RBs in tiers 1, 2 and 3, I end up with RBs in tiers 1, 3 and 4. Therefore, I would look at what the average total points of a tier 2 RB is and compare that to the average of a tier 4 RB (since I gave up the tier 2 RB opportunity to get a QB1, and assuming I've done some analysis on scoring in my league to know what to expect). That represents the average number of RB points that I am giving up by selecting QB instead of RB in round 3. I would need that number to be smaller than the difference in average points between a tier 1 QB and a tier 2 QB to justify taking the QB if I'm thinking about this correctly. Sorry for such a post, but I just want to make sure I've got my head on straight here. It seems like QB scoring needs to really be slanted toward QBs in order to see the required drop off from the top guys to justify picking one early. The problem I see with that is that we aren't very good at projecting players and you increase your odds of hitting on a position by drafting more instead of taking the QB. Make sense? Sorta my spaghetti theory...the more you throw at the wall the better chance some sticks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaft Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Besides the 4pt vs 6pt debate, a league starting two QBs makes the debate even more murky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 (edited) I think you have to factor in league size, starting requirements and scoring as well. I find drafting with an algorithm to be cumbersome and go by feel. I don't know how to make the math support up but top 3 QBs dropping past round 4 are draftable IMO. Otherwise I'm looking at 6-8 being gone (in 12 team leagues) to consider picking one. But knowing league tendencies effects this as well. Drafted last night and 2 other guys and myself waited until the 12 round (10 team league) but 10 or 11 were off the board in a system with devalued QB scoring (4 pts per passing TD) all that said, I'm not a fan of using math to draft and the countdown is on until the 4 pt vs 6 pt td doesn't matter starts. And the "you should never draft a qb until the late rds" crowd shows up. whoops, I mistakenly wrote 4 when it is actually 3 points per passing TD. Weird but this league had Team QBs until about 6 years ago. Addressing the rest in next post Edited September 5, 2016 by Zooty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 How could TD value not matter? Imagine that TD's were 400 pts per TD for QB's. Then the difference between Rodgers and Ryan would not be 50 pts, it would be 5000 pts--if we assume that he scores 12-13 fewer touchdowns then Rodgers. I haven't done the math to figure out if 6 vs. 4 matters enough, but those who say it can't matter I think are wrong. It would only be relevant if only QBs got 5000 pts per TD. But then in that case it would really be a fantasy QB league since all other positions become irrelevant. Unless it scored 4500 for each sack, then we got something going but as stated, it doesn't matter and you're wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 (edited) Besides the 4pt vs 6pt debate, a league starting two QBs makes the debate even more murky. this article is about Zero QB in 2QB leagues. http://www.twoqbs.com/2qb-draft-strategies/late-round-qbs/ Edited September 5, 2016 by keggerz 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaft Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 this article is about Zero QB in 2QB leagues. http://www.twoqbs.com/2qb-draft-strategies/late-round-qbs/ Great read! Definitely not murky anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anismith Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 If QBs scored 400 points per TD then your RBs and WRs would also be scoring that much. You can't just consider the value of your QBs you have to consider the value of the other players on your squad. So how does QB-RB-WR-RB compare to RB-WR-RB-WR-QB type of thing. In your silly example the 5000 point difference wouldn't be as relevant as you think because instead of weekly scores of 100 you would have weekly scores 10,000 Wait, but the change is from a normal 4pt QB scoring league to a 6pt QB league. Nothing about WR's and RB's usually changes...they usually stay at 6. Obviously, if you changed the value of TD's for everyone, then it wouldn't matter. Like I said, I don't know if changing the QB scoring from 4 to 6 is enough of a difference (given no change in WR and RB pts), but certainly only changing QB's TD value could have an effect as the example illustrates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaman Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 DMD's League Analysis and Graphing is the best mathematical approach I have seen and tested. It's old but the math is ageless Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Wait, but the change is from a normal 4pt QB scoring league to a 6pt QB league. Nothing about WR's and RB's usually changes...they usually stay at 6. Obviously, if you changed the value of TD's for everyone, then it wouldn't matter. Like I said, I don't know if changing the QB scoring from 4 to 6 is enough of a difference (given no change in WR and RB pts), but certainly only changing QB's TD value could have an effect as the example illustrates. You are the one that jumped QB scoring up to 400 points each ... you would never do that without an equivalent scoring jump in the other positions as well, otherwise you could essentially ignore all other positions. Let me ask this question another way. Back when I first start playing there wasn't any performance scoring at all. At that time the kickers outscored all other positions. Do you think people were drafting kickers in the early rounds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 (edited) According to the huddles ppg stats from last yr, the difference between the #1 qb to the #12 qb, who ironically was Rodgers, was 6 ppg. That's a noticeable difference. The guy that won one of my locals was carried week in and week out by Cam and Odell. Iirc, he didn't draft Cam until the 5th or 6th, so I'm not saying take a qb early. But then again, some would say that is too early. Believe me, anyone that knows me knows I usually wait, wait and wait some more on qb. But there's something to be said for getting the #1 scoring qb Edited September 5, 2016 by HowboutthemCowboys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaft Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 According to the huddles ppg stats from last yr, the difference between the #1 qb to the #12 qb, who ironically was Rodgers, was 6 ppg. That's a noticeable difference. The guy that won one of my locals was carried week in and week out by Cam and Odell. Iirc, he didn't draft Cam until the 5th or 6th, so I'm not saying take a qb early. But then again, some would say that is too early. Believe me, anyone that knows me knows I usually wait, wait and wait some more on qb. But there's something to be said for getting the #1 scoring qb The guy that won my 16 teamer last year, with no bye week in the playoffs, won with Cam Newton, Doug Martin, Sammy Watkins, Kamar Aiken, Tyler Lockett, and Emmanuel Sanders. In the semfinals, week 15, his team scored 177 points and Cam had 60 points against the Giants. A passing TD is 6 points in that league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcat Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 (edited) I consider the degree of separation my pick might give me over other players in that position. I'll compare that among most positions and usually lean towards picking the one that puts the most distance between me and the next pick at that position. I also factor in how much of a drop off there would be by waiting to my next pick if I still need that position badly. If that would mean a significant drop off, that can change who I pick. Sorry if that doesn't make sense. Hard to explain. My little blend of need-based and BPA drafting. Edited September 5, 2016 by Dcat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 The guy that won my 16 teamer last year, with no bye week in the playoffs, won with Cam Newton, Doug Martin, Sammy Watkins, Kamar Aiken, Tyler Lockett, and Emmanuel Sanders. In the semfinals, week 15, his team scored 177 points and Cam had 60 points against the Giants. A passing TD is 6 points in that league.yep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anismith Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 You are the one that jumped QB scoring up to 400 points each ... you would never do that without an equivalent scoring jump in the other positions as well, otherwise you could essentially ignore all other positions. Let me ask this question another way. Back when I first start playing there wasn't any performance scoring at all. At that time the kickers outscored all other positions. Do you think people were drafting kickers in the early rounds? You keep moving the goalposts. Kickers are less predictable than QB's obviously, but yes, if there point difference was large enough and there was some way to predict kicker then it could matter. I was using a toy example to explain how it could matter. Now, in all of the leagues you are talking about they are making QB's TD's worth more without corresponding changes into how RB's or WR's are scoring. The difference is smaller, which I agreed now twice might be too small for it to matter. Was just explaining that it could matter and that the real question is down to math. By the way, I am not advocating early QB drafting and don't do that myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 The guy that won my 16 teamer last year, with no bye week in the playoffs, won with Cam Newton, Doug Martin, Sammy Watkins, Kamar Aiken, Tyler Lockett, and Emmanuel Sanders. In the semfinals, week 15, his team scored 177 points and Cam had 60 points against the Giants. A passing TD is 6 points in that league. Just curious but what was the final score of that matchup? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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