Projecting the Riskiest Fantasy Player For Each NFL Team

[shakyjake316]

The riskiest player to draft from each team based on their current ADP, injury histories, place on the depth chart, how many other offensive weapons are on the team, etc.

 

• Arizona Cardinals - John Brown
• Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan
• Baltimore Ravens - Jeremy Maclin
• Buffalo Bills - Sammy Watkins
• Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton
• Chicago Bears - Jordan Howard
• Cincinnati Bengals - Joe Mixon
• Cleveland Browns - Corey Coleman
• Dallas Cowboys - Ezekiel Elliott
• Denver Broncos - C.J. Anderson
• Detroit Lions - Ameer Abdullah
• Green Bay Packers - Martellus Bennett
• Houston Texans - Lamar Miller
• Indianapolis Colts - Frank Gore
• Jacksonville Jaguars - Allen Robinson
• Kansas City Chiefs - Tyreek Hill
• Los Angeles Chargers - Keenan Allen
• Los Angeles Rams - Todd Gurley
• Miami Dolphins - Jay Ajayi
• Minnesota Vikings - Dalvin Cook
• New England Patriots - Brandin Cooks
• New Orleans Saints - Mark Ingram
• New York Giants - Odell Beckham Jr.
• New York Jets - Bilal Powell
• Oakland Raiders - Marshawn Lynch
• Philadelphia Eagles - Alshon Jeffery
• Pittsburgh Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger
• San Francisco 49ers - Carlos Hyde
• Seattle Seahawks - Eddie Lacy
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DeSean Jackson
• Tennessee Titans - Demarco Murray
• Washington Redskins - Jordan Reed

[michaelredd9]

 

I disagree with your analysis of Martellus Bennett  You state "But consider Bennett’s numbers over the 4 games Gronk was actually on the field and fully healthy: 155 yards, 0 TDs."  In games 4 and 5, Gronk played 70% and 81% of snaps and Bennett had 11 catches for 176 yards and 3 touchdowns in those 2 games.  In that week 5 game, Bennett cracked a bone in his ankle.  He played with the injury but clearly wasn't the same for the rest of the season.

 

I also don't buy your analysis that Bennett is going to just be a blocking tight end.  Obviously, Bennett is going to block on run plays and pancake some dudes.  But he is a great receiver.  He is just being macho when he says he likes to block more than he likes to receive.  And the Packers don't need him to stay in and block on passing plays.  Pro Football Focus rated the Packers offensive line as the best in the NFL at pass blocking last year.  They rated their offensive tackles as the best duo in the NFL and LT David Bakhtiari as the best individual pass blocker.  Bennett will be a receiver on pass plays.  

 

The only time Rodgers has had a legitimate tight end was Jermichael Finley.  Rodgers loved throwing to Finley.  If it hadn't been for injuries, Finley would have been a perennial top-3 fantasy tight end.  Even Jared Cook started to look great at the end of last year once he got healthy.  He had 18 catches for 229 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Packers' 3 playoff games.  The only thing that will stop the Black Unicorn from being studly is injury.

 

Edited July 22, 2017 by michaelredd9

[shakyjake316]

I'll admit the stat I chose -- games where Gronk was "fully" healthy -- was a bit misleading. (Though your Week 4 example was the most obvious case of Gronk being used as a decoy, which accounted for Bennett's massive yardage that game.) Still, Bennett's only finished as a Top 8 fantasy tight end twice in his career, and his ranking last year was definitely bolstered by Gronk's extended absence. I'm not willing to cede Bennett as a Top 8 TE this year in Green Bay's system; not with an underrated route runner like Lance Kendricks also in the fold. (For all we know, he could be the Jared Cook of this season.)

 

Green Bay's O-line lost two pretty significant pieces this offseason, so it's still possible Mike McCarthy uses Bennett as a pass blocker on a decent number of snaps, especially given the number of multiple TE sets they could use. And I don't argue that Rodgers loves having a good tight end; he was effusive with praise for Cook. But Jordy Nelson isn't going anywhere. Neither is Davante Adams. Both finished last season as Top 7 WRs in fantasy, whereas Julian Edelman, the Pats' top WR, finished 25th. Green Bay might not have quite as many mouths to feed as New England, but the mouths they have are always feasting.

 

Don't get me wrong, Bennett could have a huge season on the stat sheet -- in which case you should definitely re-quote your argument to me at that time, IN ALL CAPS -- but there's enough reasons to doubt him finishing as a Top 10 TE that it makes him a risky pick.

 

 

[michaelredd9]

The loss of TJ Lang will hurt, for sure.  But it will mostly hurt their run game.  When teams keep a tight end in for pass blocking it is because one of their tackles is allowing edge rushers to penetrate the backfield.  With the Packers' bookends, that isn't likely to happen.  I do agree that the Packers are planning to use 2 tight end sets fairly often.  If one tight end were kept in to block, Bennett would be the guy (between Bennett and Kendricks).  But my guess is that both will run routes unless the Packers' offensive line somehow falls apart.

 

While Bennett hasn't finished in the top 8 often, he has finished in the top 12 in each of the last 5 years except for 2015 when he only played 11 games (he was still top 12 in points per game played in 2015).  He has done this in mostly less than ideal circumstances.  Last year he had a legit quarterback and he was the second highest scoring fantasy tight end through week 5 when he broke his ankle.  Even if you think that Gronk was the reason for Bennett's slump, the Packers don't have much competition at tight end.  Richard Rodgers is backup material or less.  Lance Kendricks is being paid $2 million per year and was probably signed strictly for 2 tight end sets and as a backup.  Kendricks isn't a real threat to Bennett's snaps in 1 tight end sets.

 

The Packers do have a lot of mouths to feed.  But usually that competition pits the wide receivers against the other wide receivers.  Tight ends maybe even benefit since teams will usually double team wide receivers and allow single coverage against tight ends.  There were so many times I drafted Tony Gonzalez or Jason Witten in the 6th round and they were available because people thought their teams had too many mouths to feed.  They always got their stats.

 

Overall, I like your list a lot.  Most of the players on the list are players that have very high ceilings but are super risky.  Oftentimes, fantasy drafters look at players with rose-colored glasses and do not acknowledge the risk they present.  And then a risky player flops and they act like they got screwed when in reality they should have known the gamble they were taking.

 

[shakyjake316]

1 hour ago, michaelredd9 said:

Oftentimes, fantasy drafters look at players with rose-colored glasses and do not acknowledge the risk they present.  And then a risky player flops and they act like they got screwed when in reality they should have known the gamble they were taking.

 

 

Couldn't agree more to this point. Too many people draft based entirely on upside in the early rounds. That's a fine tactic for the mid-rounds, but it can burn you in a big way if you start doing that too early.

 

As for Bennett, we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. I'm still a tad worried about the team's O-line, and I think too much of Bennett's production will hinge on getting into the end zone. Plus, I think he'll end up absorbing a lot of double teams, especially early in the season. But in any case, I probably wouldn't take him until about TE12 just to be cautious.

[kdko]

McCaffery is the riskiest player to draft on the Panthers at his ADP.  I'd also say Fournette for the Jaguars too.

[Dolphin_Akie]

Tough to pick one for the Cardinals but is John Brown that risky in the sense that his ADP is well over #100 in standard drafts? 

 

Chances are if you draft him he's going to be on your bench week one.

[shakyjake316]

5 hours ago, Dolphin_Akie said:

Tough to pick one for the Cardinals but is John Brown that risky in the sense that his ADP is well over #100 in standard drafts? 

 

Chances are if you draft him he's going to be on your bench week one.

 

In the original linked article (which the moderator must have removed) I mention how Arizona is one of the few teams w/out a genuinely risky player. But his health concerns could make him a flop again, which means you'd be better served going after someone like Kenny Britt or Tyrell Williams at a similar ADP.

[Dolphin_Akie]

19 minutes ago, shakyjake316 said:

 

In the original linked article (which the moderator must have removed) I mention how Arizona is one of the few teams w/out a genuinely risky player. But his health concerns could make him a flop again, which means you'd be better served going after someone like Kenny Britt or Tyrell Williams at a similar ADP.

 

Ok. Must have missed the link to the explanations etc. 

[stevegrab]

2 hours ago, Dolphin_Akie said:

 

Ok. Must have missed the link to the explanations etc.

 

 

Must be what michaelredd referred to in "your analysis...."   Appears we have another fantasy blogger looking for an outlet for their material (they show up every season posting links to their sites/blogs" and wanting feedback. I guess they don't realize (or care) they're posting on a forum tied to a fantasy advice site that many of those posting/reading the forums pay for.

[michaelredd9]

On 7/24/2017 at 5:07 AM, kdko said:

McCaffery is the riskiest player to draft on the Panthers at his ADP.  I'd also say Fournette for the Jaguars too.

 

I agree with this 100%.  We have no idea what role McCaffrey will have this year.  We know that Jonathan Stewart is still playing at a high level so McCaffrey's role this year will probably be complementary.  But he is being drafted like a full-fledged starter.  His receiving abilities make his potential sky high in PPR leagues.  But his risk is equally high.  Cam Newton has a high injury risk, but his risk is not anywhere close to CMC's risk especially at their respective adps.

 

Other players who I disagree are risky:

Odell Beckham:  You state "Brandon Marshall is going to get plenty of targets, and if Sterling Shepard makes the leap this year, Beckham will be involved in a legitimate trio of receiving studs. Toss in 1st-round rookie tight end Evan Engram and Beckham’s numbers are bound to take a bit of a hit. Don’t expect 1,300 yards and 10 TDs this year."  Beckham is possibly the most naturally talented wide receiver ever.  Players of his caliber don't get squeezed out of targets because there are too many mouths to feed.  Having other legitimate wide receivers on the Giants might even cause other teams to only double-team him instead of triple-team him.  Add to that his propensity for narcissistic behavior and there is no way Eli isn't going to give him at least 8-10 targets per game.  Last year 7 targets was the fewest he saw in a game.  The whining that would ensue from him receiving fewer targets would be unbearable.  Eli is smart enough to keep Odiva Beckham happy.

 

Brandin Cooks:  Cooks might be the best deep ball receiver in the NFL.  While known for his short passes, last year Tom Brady had the 2nd highest passer rating on deep passes with a rating of 124.4.  Brady did this while mostly throwing deep to an average-at-best Chris Hogan.  NFL single-season records were set the last time Brady had a legitimate deep threat.  Cooks also averaged 7.38 yards per-route-run on routes that included multiple breaks.  That was first in the league with more than a yard per-route-run higher than second place.  Probably no team in the NFL has their receivers run routes with multiple breaks more than the Patriots.  Cooks is going to pair with the Patriots' offense like peanut butter pairs with jelly.  Cooks has one of the highest floors of any receiver in the NFL with Brady throwing to him.  70 receptions, 1,100 yards, and 8 touchdowns is the worst case scenario.  A more likely scenario is he leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns.

 

Ben Roethlisberger:  Your analysis is that Ben is going to get hurt.  Season ending injuries are rare for quarterbacks and ever rarer for a pocket passer as big as Big Ben.  While he has gotten nicked up more often than the average quarterback, the chances of him getting a season ending injury are slim.  He gets Martivis Bryant back who is a great deep receiver.  With his skill position weapons, his floor is high.  His MFL adp is 110 which is 12th highest for quarterbacks.  I don't see the risk.

 

[kdko]

46 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

I agree with this 100%.  We have no idea what role McCaffrey will have this year.  We know that Jonathan Stewart is still playing at a high level so McCaffrey's role this year will probably be complementary.  But he is being drafted like a full-fledged starter.  His receiving abilities make his potential sky high in PPR leagues.  But his risk is equally high.  Cam Newton has a high injury risk, but his risk is not anywhere close to CMC's risk especially at their respective adps.

 

 

 

Yeah, i'd draft McCaffrey in the 3rd round if he was playing for a competent QB on almost any other team in the league.  Cam doesn't pass to his RB's at ALL, and usually will keep the ball to himself during a scramble, or in the redzone.  I love the player, but I hate his situation.  It's going to be hard for Cam to break those habits.  

[shakyjake316]

40 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said:

Add to that his propensity for narcissistic behavior and there is no way Eli isn't going to give him at least 8-10 targets per game.  Last year 7 targets was the fewest he saw in a game.  The whining that would ensue from him receiving fewer targets would be unbearable.  Eli is smart enough to keep Odiva Beckham happy.

 

Brandon Marshall isn't exactly known for having a "small" personality or quiet disposition, either. If your argument is that Eli will throw most to the squeaky wheel, then Marshall would probably absorb a fair amount of targets himself based on his locker room behavior. (Still, I think you're underestimating what it means to be a professional quarterback, and I don't see Eli kowtowing that much to his "diva" receivers.)

 

Quote

Cooks has one of the highest floors of any receiver in the NFL with Brady throwing to him.  70 receptions, 1,100 yards, and 8 touchdowns is the worst case scenario.  A more likely scenario is he leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns.

 

That's assuming Brady doesn't decline at all at age 40. (Remember Peyton's steep drop-off? It can happen.) Also, I don't for the life of me see the current iteration of the Brady/Belichick offense going through one receiver, unless that man's name is Rob Gronkowski. He and Edelman will still play huge roles in this offense, along with all the receiving backs. I agree that Cooks' ceiling is astronomical, but the floor you mentioned is definitely not his "worst case scenario."

 

Quote

While he has gotten nicked up more often than the average quarterback, the chances of him getting a season ending injury are slim.  He gets Martivis Bryant back who is a great deep receiver.  With his skill position weapons, his floor is high.  His MFL adp is 110 which is 12th highest for quarterbacks.  I don't see the risk.

 

The fact that his ADP has dropped since the time of that article (from QB9 to QB12) says it all. People are unwilling to take him as a Top 10 QB because, again, he finished outside the Top 10 for the 5th time in the last seven seasons. Largely due to injuries. Bryant should help him if he can stay on the field, but it's hard to imagine that being the case.

[kdko]

I think Dez is a bigger risk than Zeke as well.  Even if Zeke misses 2 games, he's still a top 3 pick.

[michaelredd9]

9 hours ago, kdko said:

I think Dez is a bigger risk than Zeke as well.  Even if Zeke misses 2 games, he's still a top 3 pick.

 

I'm having difficulty deciding how highly I'll draft Dez.  He is as high-risk/high-reward as any player.  Dez is only 28 years old but his body has taken a beating due to the way he plays.  I can think of no receiver who has taken nearly as many brutal hits as Dez.  His body could be falling apart.  His adp is 20.47 but he is a player that could fall to the 3rd round.  With his sky high ceiling, it'll be hard to pass on him in the 3rd round or even at the end of the 2nd round.

 

[jamesplante11]

On 7/31/2017 at 11:35 AM, michaelredd9 said:

 

I'm having difficulty deciding how highly I'll draft Dez.  He is as high-risk/high-reward as any player.  Dez is only 28 years old but his body has taken a beating due to the way he plays.  I can think of no receiver who has taken nearly as many brutal hits as Dez.  His body could be falling apart.  His adp is 20.47 but he is a player that could fall to the 3rd round.  With his sky high ceiling, it'll be hard to pass on him in the 3rd round or even at the end of the 2nd round.

 

 

If Bryant falls to me at the turn of 2-3, I would have a very hard time passing on him

 

[dougsul]

I like Dez as well if he goes 20-25 a very good pick.

I think that Howard could be a bust based on this adp   He does not play on third down and when Chicago falls behind he will be on the bench. 

I see a sophomore slump.

 

 

Like Big Ben as 10th qb

 

Cam steals too many tds for me to pick a running back on Carolina

 

Just my thoughts.

[pun]

On 7/22/2017 at 6:29 PM, michaelredd9 said:

I disagree with your analysis of Martellus Bennett

 

Who do you think is more risky though? I don't really get why people who seem to doubt Jordy and Davante so much. Jordy will probably slow down a bit in the touchdown category but I think he'll still be a capable #1 for at least this year and probably next year as well. People seem to treat him like he's really not that good, like it's all a result of Rodgers. They seem to forget he was drafted only about 10 picks after guys like DeAndre Hopkins and Dez Bryant.

 

As for Adams, being the #2 guy seems to make all the difference. Maybe he can't handle most teams' #1 CBs. Maybe Jordy can do that better due to his height. Idk. But as long as they have Jordy, I think Adams will be fine.

 

I suppose I'd have to choose Cobb as riskiest but he's probably going fairly late so even still it's not a huge risk. That's the Packers for ya.

[michaelredd9]

12 hours ago, pun said:

 

Who do you think is more risky though? I don't really get why people who seem to doubt Jordy and Davante so much. Jordy will probably slow down a bit in the touchdown category but I think he'll still be a capable #1 for at least this year and probably next year as well. People seem to treat him like he's really not that good, like it's all a result of Rodgers. They seem to forget he was drafted only about 10 picks after guys like DeAndre Hopkins and Dez Bryant.

 

As for Adams, being the #2 guy seems to make all the difference. Maybe he can't handle most teams' #1 CBs. Maybe Jordy can do that better due to his height. Idk. But as long as they have Jordy, I think Adams will be fine.

 

I suppose I'd have to choose Cobb as riskiest but he's probably going fairly late so even still it's not a huge risk. That's the Packers for ya.

 

I also believe in Jordy.  He is big, athletic, and spectacular at using his body to box out defenders.  He is possibly the safest player being chosen in the second round of fantasy drafts.  I'm less sold on Adams.  I think a lot of his production was due to circumstances.  But it's hard to argue with production and he is still a good value at his 4th round adp.  Cobb is a difficult one to figure out.  I had assumed he'd bounce back last year.  After 2 bad years in a row, he could easily be cut with his $12.6 million cap number.  And the Packers will likely use a slot receiver less since they'll likely be using a lot of 2 tight end sets.  If the Packers do keep him, he still presents good value since his adp is so low.

 

With adps in mind, I think Ty Montgomery is the riskiest player.  His sickle cell trait is concerning.  His playing time was severely limited after blood was found in his urine.  Sickle cell trait isn't something that goes away.  He also is still having problems with pass protection.  I think the best case scenario is that he plays 50% of snaps.

 

[Big John]

Revisiting to say good call on Bennett.

[kdko]

Good call on a lot of these. 

[michaelredd9]

I definitely missed on Bennett.  The opportunity was there.  He just plain sucked.

 

[shakyjake316]

I'm glad some handfuls of my analysis have held up so far.

[Shaft]

36 minutes ago, shakyjake316 said:

I'm glad some handfuls of my analysis have held up so far.

It didn't help, if people didn't listen.

[shakyjake316]

That's on them!