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Auction strategy gone awry


Grits and Shins
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I recently participated in a rookie/free agent veteran auction for one of my salary cap/dynasty leagues. 12 team fairly standard performance league starting 1 or 2 RB / 3,4 or 5 WR / 1 or 2 TE (total of 7) ... no defenses. Salary cap is $400, roster of 20. Veterans get 3 year contracts, rookies get 4 year contracts.

 

Many teams gutted their teams this year including me, I started with:

 

$1 - Jon Kitna

$52 - Ronnie Brown

$19 - Marion Barber III

$30 - T.J. Houshmandzadeh

$26 - Tony Gonzalez

$26 - Todd Heap

$1 - Kellen Winslow

$7 - Neil Rackers

 

Brady and McNabb were available, but I figured these guys were outside my budget. I hoped to get a QB for $15. Clearly that is not going to buy me either one of those but might get me Plummer, Delhomme or any of several other equivalent players. I really wanted to get Cutler for 2007-2009, which increased my interest in securing the services of Plummer.

 

I wanted to get Bush or Maroney and figured that both would likely be out of my price range. I established a budget of $75 for one.

 

Torry Holt and Chad Johnson were available, but likely not in my budget. I would be willing to go as high as $75 but figured that wasn't going to be enough. So I had hoped to secure TWO quality WRs for $40 each.

 

I spent several hours setting up a nice spreadsheet that would allow me to track players and other teams rosters. I established a budget and targeted some players and marked other players as undesireable. I either had the most money available to spend or was 2nd ... but I had the most money to spend per open roster spot. But this was the first year our league used FantasyAuctioneer.com and I was unprepared for the speed of the auction. My spreadsheet was useless because I did not have time to update it or refer to it. Don't get me wrong I highly recommend FantasyAuctioneer as it was very cool ... but I wasn't really prepared for the break-neck speed. Reggie Bush was the first player up for auction and he was sold for a ridiculously low $51. I absolutely can not believe he went that low ... I know I was still trying to figure things out and simply couldn't catch up in time to realize he would be sold at that price. :D This was good news for his new owner and possibly very astute strategy to put Bush up first.

 

As expected Brady and McNabb were relatively expensive Brady for 51 and McNabb for 42. It was at this point I decided I needed to keep money in reserve for Jay Cutler ... who I would put out very late if possible.

 

I watched Chad Johnson and Torry Holt both go for more than $90 (to the same team) and I watched reciever and reciever go for more than I wanted to pay because I was sticking to my budget AND because I wanted to have enough to get Plummer & Cutler.

 

I did manage to snag Maroney for $60 ($9 MORE than Bush!) and I got what I thought was a very reasonable price for Jamal Lewis - $28.

 

Then I bid $20 on Keyshawn Johnson, what was I thinking?

 

In the end being conservative and holding on to cash for Cutler hurt me big time in regards to my WRs. My resulting team:

 

$1 - Jon Kitna

$3 - David Carr

$5 - Jay Cutler

$15 - Jake Plummer

$60 - Laurence Maroney

$52 - Ronnie Brown

$28 - Jamal Lewis

$19 - Marion Barber III

$30 - T.J. Houshmandzadeh

$25 - Greg Jennings

$20 - Keyshawn Johnson

$15 - Brandon Lloyd

$14 - Sinorice Moss

$9 - Marty Booker

$5 - Travis Taylor

$26 - Tony Gonzalez

$26 - Todd Heap

$1 - Kellen Winslow

$7 - Neil Rackers

$1 - Jeff Reed

 

I needed to adjust my strategy during the auction and make it a priority to get at least ONE WR that is the primary receiver for his team, but failed to do so. I guess the bit of good news is that I managed to get several rookies that the league seems to have high expectations for (Cutler, Maroney, Jennings, Moss) and these players will be relatively inexpensive next year.

 

So to the point of this post. When you participate in an auction it is very important to set up a budget and it is important to target players that you want and those that you do not want. I have always read that you make a budget and stick to it ... but I think it is more appropriate to view the budget as a guideline that may need to adjusted as the auction progresses.

Edited by Grits and Shins
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Just out of curiosity, why the need to secure Cutler? I think he's a solid choice for you to have for the next few years, but I am curious why you are so high on him as to sacrifice the RB and WR positions.

 

I do the same with my spreeadsheets and can track all, but this is in a live format. I couldn't imagine using the spreadsheet and the online environment...the speed, as you say, has to be insane.

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Just out of curiosity, why the need to secure Cutler? I think he's a solid choice for you to have for the next few years, but I am curious why you are so high on him as to sacrifice the RB and WR positions.

 

 

I wanted Cutler, it was a mental block thing that got in the way of this auction when it shouldn't have. It is very beneficial in this league to get players when they are rookies for a several of reasons: 1) they get 4 year contracts (instead of 3 years), 2) because their play will be limited in their first year it is likely their salaries will be very reasonable after the salary recalculation process next year and 3) the timing was right as I did not have a franchise QB and I was hoping that Cutler would become that guy.

 

You can actually pay MORE for the rookies and expect their salaries to come down next season because of our recaclulation process ... with a possible few exceptions.

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Thanks for the heads up about FantasyAuctioneer.com moving fast. :D

 

Don't think you needed to write a short story to say that though :D

 

 

The commissioner can adjust the time to award a player and the time an owner has to place a player up for bid. In our auction it was 10 seconds to award a player and 30 seconds to put one up for bid.

 

At that pace it was often difficult to find the player you wanted to put up for bid in time ... and if you missed the time frame the software automatically placed a player out for you at $1. Once I figured out how to pre-select players for my next pick it went smoother for me.

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The commissioner can adjust the time to award a player and the time an owner has to place a player up for bid. In our auction it was 10 seconds to award a player and 30 seconds to put one up for bid.

 

At that pace it was often difficult to find the player you wanted to put up for bid in time ... and if you missed the time frame the software automatically placed a player out for you at $1. Once I figured out how to pre-select players for my next pick it went smoother for me.

Even better info. Again, thanx!

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Wow, can't imagine doing a live auction on the web... Things go fast at an in person auction.

 

You are right about having to switch stratagies early auction especially when an owner or two start over paying for players.

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How does your recaclulation process work? We are trying to figure out how to do one.

 

 

 

After the season, player values are recalculated to award them with a salary commensurate with their performance. Using the league scoring system, each player will be considered re-signed to each team at a value equal to their full season’s fantasy points multiplied by "0.2” or the midpoint between his previous year’s salary and his recalculated value, which ever is greater. Kickers will use "0.05" as their recalculation factor.

 

The problem with that approach is that mid-level and low-level players become to expensive to retain so there is a high degree of roster turnover in those type of players.

 

I'm in another league with a much more complicated recalculation process, probably not a good starting point for first-timers.

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I know someone who often does the same thing. He scouts and targets players, and then sets a price on them that he wouldn't mind paying (usually lower than I'd expect them to go). Then he sets his budget and doesn't waver. He always backpedals off of the studs he's targeted when they invarably go for "more than he wants to pay", and what he ends up with is a team full of his second and third choices that he got cheap, and a whole bunch of money left over. His unwillingness to spend more money on big-time players has screwed him in many a season.

 

My MML is an auction, and has been for its entire 13-year existence. It's pretty funny how the rest of the fantasy world is just now catching on . . . :D

 

Peace

policy

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I'm that insane other owner that spent 45% of my roster to secure the rights to both Chad Johnson and Torry Holt. I'm going to kick the snot out of Blitz in this league this coming year. *

 

* Assuming no injuries as I have NO depth but the best starters by a mile.

 

PS - FantasyAuctioneer was very cool.

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I'm that insane other owner that spent 45% of my roster to secure the rights to both Chad Johnson and Torry Holt. I'm going to kick the snot out of Blitz in this league this coming year. *

 

* Assuming no injuries as I have NO depth but the best starters by a mile.

 

PS - FantasyAuctioneer was very cool.

 

Actually, you'll kick the snot out of Blitz in three years when their salaries are revalued to the point you can afford other players. :D

 

One more big thumbs up to FantasyAuctioneer.com.

Edited by Kid Cid
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