Arian Foster Troubling

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

This is a different team than it was in week 1. AJ is nicked. Jones is nicked too. Their starting LT was suspended. Cushing was suspended (due to return). Daniels had a setback. Schaub is getting tossed around.

 

There was barely a decent run D amongst their first 4 opponents. He only managed a TD in the two easiest of the pretty easy matchups. Next up is KC (meh but playing well), bye, @IND, SD, @JAC, @NYJ, TEN, @PHI. Save for JAC that's hardly many gimmes. First 2 weeks of FF playoffs are ugly too.

 

Giants are a good team but HOU was just dismantled at home. They have a horrible D with a slate of mostly average to bad matchups the rest of the way. There are a handful of matchups that could definitely turn out like this past week. Throw in Ward's semi-emergence and Foster maintaining his #1 status is unlikely.

 

 

-The Colts, he already destroyed. You could say they improved, but not really. Charles just went 16-87 (over 100 total yards), and they KNEW he was running it.

 

-The Chargers, were just run over by Michael Bush. 26-104 (3-31). And we know the Chargers are DREADFUL on the road.

 

-The Jags, gave up over 100 yards and 6 yards a pop to Spiller/Jackson combo.

 

-The Jets, will be the toughest on the list. But AD just put up over 100 total yards on them as well.

 

-The Titans, just gave up 100+ rush yards to Felix on less than 20 carries.

 

-The Eagles, were solid. But let's not forget Portis/Torain gashed them for 150+ total yards the week before.

 

Chiefs, Bills, Raiders, Redskins, Vikings. All teams that ran well on the aforementioned defenses, with very mediocre passing games to say the least. Looking at that schedule, I don't see any drop off at all, with the exception of the game at the Jets.

[Square]

Alrighty, I think I'm concerned enough this week that I'm sitting Foster and starting Bradshaw against Detroit. I think Foster will do "ok" this week but I guess I just don't expect big things so I'm treating him like a RB2 and will play the matchups. If he does well this week, I'll probably have to put him back into every week starter territory. Hopefully he makes me look stupid and does well.

[BeeR]

-The Colts, he already destroyed. You could say they improved, but not really. Charles just went 16-87 (over 100 total yards), and they KNEW he was running it.

 

-The Chargers, were just run over by Michael Bush. 26-104 (3-31). And we know the Chargers are DREADFUL on the road.

 

-The Jags, gave up over 100 yards and 6 yards a pop to Spiller/Jackson combo.

 

-The Jets, will be the toughest on the list. But AD just put up over 100 total yards on them as well.

 

-The Titans, just gave up 100+ rush yards to Felix on less than 20 carries.

 

-The Eagles, were solid. But let's not forget Portis/Torain gashed them for 150+ total yards the week before.

 

Chiefs, Bills, Raiders, Redskins, Vikings. All teams that ran well on the aforementioned defenses, with very mediocre passing games to say the least. Looking at that schedule, I don't see any drop off at all, with the exception of the game at the Jets.

Classic example of misleading/misunderstanding stats. eg thinking that giving up 100 total rush yds to a team is bad. It isn't. In fact that would typically put a team in the top 10 of rush Ds each year. Not amazing, but pretty good. Also X yds/carry isn't necessarily a big deal (if the total production isn't big), etc etc. Not saying it invalidates all of your examples, just FWIW

 

I'm starting him. And yeah I'm nervous but wth

[kingfish247]

Classic example of misleading/misunderstanding stats.

+1000

And it's fine to look at what other teams have done to the teams on HOU's upcoming schedule but evaluating those examples while ignoring the state of the actual team playing the game (ie. HOU) is probably not wise.

[Company of Heroes]

I wish I could get Ray Rice for Foster + change. Probably would be happy with Turner or Mendenhall straight up. All have better remaining schedules and seem reasonable targets...

[NYCDOG]

Maybe Im missing something, but I'm not all that concerned about Foster going forward, barring injury. Aware of Kubiak's lineage and the shenanigans the last few weeks but just can't see Kubiak being that stupid. Maybe Im wrong

[giantsfan]

I must admit it has been a long time since I have seen a player be such a firecracker for comment good and bad. It's like Foster owners are trying to justify they made a great steal of a pick and non-Foster owners trying to pour cold water on him I guess because they passed on him? Left and right people jump on and off the bandwagon based on one game up or down. Every little move is watched like a hawk.

 

To me he is what he is. A good solid top 10ish RB. MAYBE you can get as high as 7, and maybe some will go as low as 12ish. He is not and will not be a top 5 guy barring something surprising to me. YES Kubiak is a nightmare, which is why maybe he finally loses his job if they fail again this year (how many bad years does one coach get?).

 

At any rate, enjoy the ride with Foster. There will be ups and downs. It will be VERY frustrating when Kubiak pulls him in favor of Ward during games, but that will be what it will be. My advise is if you can't stomach Kubiak you deal Foster away after his next good game (hopefullly Sunday) and get off the Kubiak up and down ride. BUT if you can stomach it I think you will get a solid low mid to low # 1 RB overall.

[giantsfan]

Maybe Im missing something, but I'm not all that concerned about Foster going forward, barring injury. Aware of Kubiak's lineage and the shenanigans the last few weeks but just can't see Kubiak being that stupid. Maybe Im wrong

One thing, Kubiak CAN be that stupid. Trust me on that...not saying I'm concerned with Foster or not, just saying Kubiak CAN be that stupid.

[stethant]

Dude's had one bad game. One. If you can prognosticate the next 10 or so weeks based on that game, more power to you. I'm hangin' my hat on his two respectable games and two monster games so far. I'm even willing to put up with Kubiak for it.

[Tastes Like More]

Dude's had one bad game. One. If you can prognosticate the next 10 or so weeks based on that game, more power to you. I'm hangin' my hat on his two respectable games and two monster games so far. I'm even willing to put up with Kubiak for it.

 

+1

[Cy_Hawk]

+1

 

+2. Dude is a beast will be top 8 at worst at season's end, IMO.

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Classic example of misleading/misunderstanding stats. eg thinking that giving up 100 total rush yds to a team is bad. It isn't. In fact that would typically put a team in the top 10 of rush Ds each year. Not amazing, but pretty good. Also X yds/carry isn't necessarily a big deal (if the total production isn't big), etc etc. Not saying it invalidates all of your examples, just FWIW

 

I'm starting him. And yeah I'm nervous but wth

 

 

I didn't count every carry and every yard. That would make the numbers even larger, but also defeat my point, which is: the main backs in these attacks got their numbers against these defenses. Foster will as well.

[Grimm74]

He looks like he will be a top 10 RB this year. I would not be surprised if he ended up being #1 or #10. Good Runners always have off games...CJ dropped 30 yards in Tenn against Pitt. Oh well...

 

If my memory serves me Kubiak has NEVER benched Foster. He was technically "suspended" for a quarter for missing or being late for a meeting. Last week Foster got hurt...so they took him out for a couple Quarters. As for Ward...what did he have last week that was so great? He carried the ball for ONE freaking carry... It ended up a TD but folks this will happen with all running backs.. This is so normal that it is idiotic to think other wise.

 

I hate knee jerk reactions. Anyone who has or is panicking grow a set of balls and have some foresight.

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

+1000

And it's fine to look at what other teams have done to the teams on HOU's upcoming schedule but evaluating those examples while ignoring the state of the actual team playing the game (ie. HOU) is probably not wise.

 

 

How else do you judge match-ups then? With the exception of the Vikings, those teams do not run the ball well.

 

People were looking at the schedule for a reason to sit him, I'm looking at the opposite point of view. He's the top RB to date. Sitting him based on a match-up makes as much sense as sitting Gore or MJD based on the match-up. Most times you can't afford that luxury. The only teams I would consider sitting Foster for this year are NYG and Pittsburgh...

[Company of Heroes]

I hate knee jerk reactions. Anyone who has or is panicking grow a set of balls and have some foresight.

 

Give me a break. What the hell is FF but continuously gathering info on your players, projecting future performance, trying to sell high and buy low, etc.

 

You've just resorted to characterizations and name-calling because someone HAS applied their own foresight and has a different opinion than you. WEAK.

 

You're correct, it is one bad game. And someone that truly enjoys this hobby would not simply dismiss it without a little consideration.

 

All the 'enjoy the ride' comments I just can't understand. Do you honestly not look beyond the weeks already past?

 

I can accept a difference of opinion on Foster's prospects, but the debate and discussion can enlighten. Unless, of course, it devolves into 'grow a pair' and other characterizations that bring nothing to the table.

Edited October 15, 2010 by Company of Heroes

[Company of Heroes]

The biggest deal for me is the schedule. Using the Huddle's awesome SoS tool (worth the price of admission), you can see that thru the first five weeks of the season, HOU had the 6th easiest SoS for rushing based on actual numbers from this year. For the remainder of the year, HOU has the WORST SoS for rushing based on the games completed so far. While 5 games is not a statistically relevant data set, it can neither be dismissed. The important thing to look for is large swings, and this is a big one.

 

Again, this doesn't mean that he will go in the tank. He just will likely cool off a bit from his current great production. That said, if you can swing a deal for a stud RB headed for an increase in production based on the numbers Foster has already posted, why dismiss it?

Edited October 15, 2010 by Company of Heroes

[giantsfan]

The biggest deal for me is the schedule. Using the Huddle's awesome SoS tool (worth the price of admission), you can see that thru the first five weeks of the season, HOU had the 6th easiest SoS for rushing based on actual numbers from this year. For the remainder of the year, HOU has the WORST SoS for rushing based on the games completed so far. While 5 games is not a statistically relevant data set, it can neither be dismissed. The important thing to look for is large swings, and this is a big one.

 

Again, this doesn't mean that he will go in the tank. He just will likely cool off a bit from his current great production. That said, if you can swing a deal for a stud RB headed for an increase in production based on the numbers Foster has already posted, why dismiss it?

And here is how I look at it. From now through week 10 he has 1 good matchup (at Indy). 2 middle of the road matchups (KC and at Jacks). And 1 tough matchup (SD).

 

BUT if I truly looked at the games with my own eyes, I think it is 3 good matchups (at Indy, at Jacks, SD) and 1 middle of the road matchup (KC).

 

SO unless you can get something real good for him today, my thought is if you want to bail wait until he has that big game again 1 of the next 4 games. I can't see him facing these 4 teams and not having at least 1 more big game barring injury.

[Ramhock]

I have Foster in one of my 2 leagues. Uh . . . I'm not trading him. I like him.

 

Foster will make the tougher matchups look easier, after he has left town.

[BeeR]

this doesn't mean that he will go in the tank. He just will likely cool off a bit from his current great production.

This is more or less what I am expecting/hoping - most likely he'll settle into a RB2 type guy who won't dazzle but will provide solid numbers. I think.

[kingfish247]

... The only teams I would consider sitting Foster for this year are NYG and Pittsburgh...

Where did I ever, or anyone, say anyone should bench Foster?

 

What I was pointing out, along with many others, that one may have to temper their expectations for Foster going forward. And for three very good reasons...1) he's had one of the easiest SoS to start the season but has one of the worst remaining; 2) a lot of key guys are knicked or missing time; and 3) they have an awful defense. This isn't bold stuff here. Only reversion to the mean. Just about the only purely speculative thing I mentioned was Kubiak's propensity for a quick hook. Which is really only speculative as it applies to Foster because in the past Kubiak has in fact been prone to pull a RB after a single fumble or whatever.

 

Now it's your right to disagree but let's not add to the mischaracterizing and misleading stats with more mischaracterization of others' legitimate points of view.

Edited October 15, 2010 by kingfish247

[kingfish247]

All the 'enjoy the ride' comments I just can't understand. Do you honestly not look beyond the weeks already past?

Didn't you get the memo? FF never ever changes.

[Grimm74]

Give me a break. What the hell is FF but continuously gathering info on your players, projecting future performance, trying to sell high and buy low, etc.

 

You've just resorted to characterizations and name-calling because someone HAS applied their own foresight and has a different opinion than you. WEAK.

 

You're correct, it is one bad game. And someone that truly enjoys this hobby would not simply dismiss it without a little consideration.

 

All the 'enjoy the ride' comments I just can't understand. Do you honestly not look beyond the weeks already past?

 

I can accept a difference of opinion on Foster's prospects, but the debate and discussion can enlighten. Unless, of course, it devolves into 'grow a pair' and other characterizations that bring nothing to the table.

 

Buddy this is FANTASY FOOTBALL. If you cannot take some good humored trash talk I feel sorry for you. I guess we can all sit around and enjoy your totally "enlighten commentary", but for for me this is just a fun little hobby in which I just call them like I see them in words I would use while drinking a beer with my buddies.

 

Your post comes at the heals of a bad game in which triggered your emotional upheaval to think trade. The bad game was your catalyst. So to me it was a big issue for you. I wish you all the luck in finding another player that will not get injured, not have a bad game, is on a team that is guaranteed to play well the rest of the year, and who wont get benched for a quarter for being late to a team meeting. Sometimes we over think things. I have no issues with you trading Foster but to post "Arian Foster Troubling" is a bit silly.

 

Good Luck.

[Company of Heroes]

Buddy this is FANTASY FOOTBALL. If you cannot take some good humored trash talk I feel sorry for you. I guess we can all sit around and enjoy your totally "enlighten commentary", but for for me this is just a fun little hobby in which I just call them like I see them in words I would use while drinking a beer with my buddies.

 

Your post comes at the heals of a bad game in which triggered your emotional upheaval to think trade. The bad game was your catalyst. So to me it was a big issue for you. I wish you all the luck in finding another player that will not get injured, not have a bad game, is on a team that is guaranteed to play well the rest of the year, and who wont get benched for a quarter for being late to a team meeting. Sometimes we over think things. I have no issues with you trading Foster but to post "Arian Foster Troubling" is a bit silly.

 

Good Luck.

 

Sigh. Enough dude. You think I'm being emotional, overreacting, knee-jerk etc. I don't agree. Back on topic please, or let this just fade away.

[Company of Heroes]

Foster will make the tougher matchups look easier, after he has left town.

 

Fair point. I do agree that RBs in potent offenses are less susceptible to matchup issues. The only minor concern is that the HOU offense has stalled a bit due to AJ's injury.

 

And at least some of the reason his early season SoS looks pretty easy upon reflection is precisely because he's been tearing it up.

Edited October 15, 2010 by Company of Heroes

[kingfish247]

Your post comes at the heals of a bad game in which triggered your emotional upheaval to think trade. The bad game was your catalyst. So to me it was a big issue for you. I wish you all the luck in finding another player that will not get injured, not have a bad game, is on a team that is guaranteed to play well the rest of the year, and who wont get benched for a quarter for being late to a team meeting. Sometimes we over think things. I have no issues with you trading Foster but to post "Arian Foster Troubling" is a bit silly.

 

Good Luck.

Bad games are typically good moments to evaluate what is going well or going wrong for a player. Especially for players who aren't, say, Barry Sanders or 2000 Randy Moss or Peyton Manning.