Spot starting a Team Defense strategy

[Curt Dallas]

This year I've been trying to maximize my points a the D/ST position by changing up my D/ST every few weeks. I'll look at the Huddle's strength of schedule tool and find a team that has two or three weeks of favorable matchups and pick up that team to spot start for a few weeks. It was working great at the beginning of the season, but the last two weeks I've had the SEA D/ST and they've gotten me 0 and -2 points respectively. I'm starting to second guess myself on this, and trying to figure out which D/ST I should grab going into FA lockdown at the beginning of week 13 for playoffs.

 

I'm wondering if anyone else does something similar, and if you have any tips for how you choose which D/ST you choose to spot start.

 

If you haven't tried this strategy, please don't comment with the typical "a team defense is hard to predict and you should just stick with an above average one."

[Chief Dick]

Whatever defense is playing Carolina?

[Curt Dallas]

Whatever defense is playing Carolina?

 

 

Did that with STL last year, and if the Defense was playing OAK or TB soon as well, even better.

[BearBroncos]

I;ve done this since I've been playing FF.

 

To start the season, I find a good solid defense from last year I can hitch my wagon to the first 4 or 5 weeks of the NFL. Just to see how changes from the off season impact other teams that might have been marginal good/bad. I think play matchups the rest of the season. I normally kick ASS on my D picks. As an example, Picked up Washington in week 7 against a horrific Chicago which gain me 33 points. There were no stellar matchups in week 8 I could grab that weren't already taken, but then looked at Arizona for week 9. 29 points.

 

The matchups are critical. Arizona's special teams are above average while Minnesotas special teams D is less than average. Farve has been struggling while Arizona has at least 1 turn over in every game. They've also been pretty solid on fumble returns for a TD.

 

Teams to look at on matchups. Anyone (accept Buffalo) who plays Dah Bears. Teams that play rookie QB matchups, i.e Clausen in week 10. Another good matchup this week (and considering over Arizona this week) is Stl against SF. STL has been a solid defense and going against a QB that really isn't all that good could produce some nice fantasy points for week 10.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

When I'm using this strategy I simply look at as many game write-up as I can that give a final score prediction.

I'm looking for a the five teams predicted to score the lease amount of points. Then search for their opponent on the waiver wire.

As an example using one of my sites ( I use 5 or 6 normally for this not just one ) but this is just for giving an example.

Buf 27 Lions 10

Jets 20 Cle 10

Bucks 31 Panthers 3

Giants 38 Cowboys 10

Ariz 27 Seattle 10

 

These are the 5 games with teams scoring the least ,, so I would search the waivers for

Bucks

Buf

Jets

Giants

Ariz.

 

Of course other sites ( or yourself may see some of these games completely different ) that is why I use several.

[Grits and Shins]

Whatever defense is playing Carolina?

 

This is what I have done two of the last three weeks ... STL in week 8 for 20 points, TB this week for ?? points.

[ajfalcone]

I look for injuries / matchups / bad weather and traveling distance for away teams. East coast west coast travel effects time zones

Edited November 9, 2010 by ajfalcone

[JUMbotron]

I run a Defense by Committee each year, or shopping the wire every other week or so, looking for matchups.... and this year it has totally bombed. I can't hit one to save my life. I'm going to write about it in Friday's JUMbotron.

 

For what it's worth, I'm starting my 6th different defense this week: St. Louis @ SF

[wolfer]

This is what I have done two of the last three weeks ... STL in week 8 for 20 points, TB this week for ?? points.

 

I think 'follow Carolina' is the logical move if Fox goes with Clausen. He simply isn't ready for the NFL. Tony Pike won't scare anyone either, but could he possibly be worse?

[ajh2]

Here is how I evaluate this week's Defenses that are possibly available.

 

High Risk

Defense Opp

SEA AZ

AZ SEA

CHI MIN

MIN CHI

DAL NYG

BUF DET

 

For SEA and AZ, both teams have good to great return games, both opponent offenses turn the ball over; however, can either Defense shut the other team's offense down or prevent a shoot-out?

For DAL, Will the Defense even show up?

For BUF, if Hill plays at QB, DET are the Kings of the Savana, and if Stanton plays at QB, DET are the kitty kats.

 

For the Nuclear Bowl - MIN vs. CHI, Both teams have the same problem - QB meltdown is possible - 2+ INTs. CHI gives up sacks. The DAL defense does a better job of return D than the MIN defense.

 

Medium Risk

Defense Opp

KC DEN

STL SF

 

KC faces a DEN offense that loves to throw the football, yards and points can be scored in a hurry. Possibly a high scoring affair.

STL faces a SF offense that loves to run the football, possible low scoring but with no opportunities for sacks, INTs or Fumbles (or a decreased chance).

 

Low Risk

Defense Opp

NYG DAL

TB CAR

 

For NYG, Will DAL quit again?

For TB, CAR is barely exceptable as an offense. Does CAR have a heart beat?

 

Best Target - TB, CAR offense is on life support and capable of giving numerous turnovers and returns

High Risk/ High Reward - AZ, MIN, CHI, SEA

Conditional - BUF which depends on which DET QB plays.

Edited November 10, 2010 by ajh2

[CowboysDiehard]

Started the year with Minnesota in one league, a few weeks ago I finally settled on a rotation of AZ and DET in that one (Det has Dallas in Week 11). Has worked well so far. I missed last week by starting DET over AZ, however.

Edited November 10, 2010 by CowboysDiehard

[BearBroncos]

I run a Defense by Committee each year, or shopping the wire every other week or so, looking for matchups.... and this year it has totally bombed. I can't hit one to save my life. I'm going to write about it in Friday's JUMbotron.

 

For what it's worth, I'm starting my 6th different defense this week: St. Louis @ SF

 

Jim, if anything, I can say I've nailed my D's this year and I think STL is a solid pickup this week.

[Scorcher]

Plug and play seemed easier last year because more people are doing it now. I missed out on New Orleans last week because someone beat me to it, unfortunately it was the guy I played. He got 28 pts. I did manage to get Tampa Bay this week. did okay with Vikings. I also picked up and stashed Arizona because they play at Carolina week 15 and have Dallas at home week 16.

[ajfalcone]

Here is how I evaluate this week's Defenses that are possibly available.

 

High Risk

Defense Opp

SEA AZ

AZ SEA

CHI MIN

MIN CHI

DAL NYG

BUF DET

 

For SEA and AZ, both teams have good to great return games, both opponent offenses turn the ball over; however, can either Defense shut the other team's offense down or prevent a shoot-out?

 

While I do agree with the SEA/AZ prognostication. I must say SEA really is only a spot play at home because visiting they have been lit up. But that said after what happened aginst the Giants, even that theory is out the window.

[Avernus]

While I do agree with the SEA/AZ prognostication. I must say SEA really is only a spot play at home because visiting they have been lit up. But that said after what happened aginst the Giants, even that theory is out the window.

 

 

at home, you just play matchups and if the other team has an offense that is on fire, I look elsewhere...

 

I wouldn't start the Hawks D against the Giants, Saints, Colts, Falcons, Vikings, Eagles or the Packers....and possibly a few other teams as well...

 

don't play Seahawks D on the road and don't play them against said teams regardless of where they play...

[ajh2]

ajfalcone Posted Yesterday, 5:29 PM

QUOTE (ajh2 @ 11/9/10 11:14pm)

Here is how I evaluate this week's Defenses that are possibly available.

 

High Risk

Defense Opp

SEA AZ

AZ SEA

CHI MIN

MIN CHI

DAL NYG

BUF DET

 

For SEA and AZ, both teams have good to great return games, both opponent offenses turn the ball over; however, can either Defense shut the other team's offense down or prevent a shoot-out?

 

While I do agree with the SEA/AZ prognostication. I must say SEA really is only a spot play at home because visiting they have been lit up. But that said after what happened aginst the Giants, even that theory is out the window.

 

Which is why I have both of them in the high risk category. Both teams could play reaaly great and this turn into a shootout or both play horrible which would benefit the Defenses. However, AZ at home maybe the better play but carries the risk of a bad QB. SEA has shown little on the road but this is a conference game and SEA just may show up. Hence my question that can either Defense dominate.