As QBs continue to drop...

[DMD]

Had an expert 12 team non-PPR draft tonight and here are where the QBs went:

 

1.7 Rodgers,A.

2.1 Brees,D.

4.4 Manning,P.

5.1 Newton,C.

5.12 Brady,T.

6.7 Ryan,M.

6.1 Stafford,M.

6.9 RGIII

6.11 Kaepernick,C.

7.5 Luck,A.

7.8 Romo,T.

7.1 Wilson,R.

9.11 Manning,E.

11.9 Dalton,A.

12.2 Cutler,J.

12.3 Palmer,C.

12.5 Smith,A.

12.8 Bradford,S.

12.9 Vick,M.

12.1 Rivers,P.

13.1 Roethlisberger,B.

13.2 Freeman,J.

14.6 Flacco,J.

15.6 Schaub,M.

 

Brady at 5.12, Ryan at 6.7 and I took Romo at 7.8

 

But wait, in my FPC big money league 12 tm PPR draft, here were QBs:

 

 

4.8 Brees,D.

4.11 Rodgers,A.

5.3 Manning,P.

5.1 Newton,C.

7.4 Brady,T.

8.1 Luck,A.

8.5 Ryan,M.

8.12 Stafford,M.

9.6 Romo,T.

9.7 Kaepernick,C.

9.11 RGIII

10.3 Wilson,R.

11.11 Vick,M.

11.12 Roethlisberger,B.

12.4 Manning,E.

13.9 Palmer,C.

14.4 Smith,A.

14.8 Dalton,A.

15.4 Freeman,J.

16.11 Cutler,J.

16.12 Bradford,S.

17.6 Schaub,M.

17.8 Rivers,P.

17.11 Tannehill,R.

 

Brees at 4.8 to kick it off - never seen it so late ever that I can remember.

 

QBs getting no love this year - especially Brady

[Donutrun Jellies]

Brady at 5.12, Ryan at 6.7 and I took Romo at 7.8

 

Romo fell to me at 8.1 in a 10 team non ppr redraft last night, Ryan went at 5.4 and Brady at 6.4 .. I was hoping for Ryan at 5.10, but when he got nabbed, I passed on Brady at 5.10/6.1 since Brady, Stafford, and Romo were still on the board and 7/10 teams already had QBs. It's been a lonnnng time since I felt passing on Brady in the 6th was worth the risk!

[tbimm]

No RG3 on either list? It is early so maybe I am missing something here?

Edited July 24, 2013 by tbimm

[WashingtonD]

A) Why do the "experts" continue to play non-PPR?

B ) Trying to start a QB run this year doesn't look like a viable strategy at all. Definitely not a position where I want to be first to pull the trigger. I'd rather have Ryan at 8.5 than Brees at 4.8 all day.

Edited July 24, 2013 by WashingtonD

[Bronco Billy]

The latest rage in FF that will pave the way for the few thinking outside the "wisdom" to cash in.

 

QB scoring flattened last year, so the reaction is that it will stay status quote for the coming year. That may be a serious mistake.

 

On a 5 year average, the top 3 QBs score about 12.5% more FF pts than QBs 4-6 and about 28.5% more FF pts than QBs 8-10. Last season those differences dropped to 8.5% and 19% respectively, whereas the year before the average differences leapt to 23.5% and 46.5% respectively.

 

So we saw an overreaction last year to what was an incredibly unusual high scoring 2011, and now we're seeing a similar overreaction in the opposite direction to a really unusually flat 2012.

 

The last time we saw a similarly unusually flat year was 2008, and the following year the differentials jumped back up to close to mean differentials, where they stayed for 2 years.

 

QB is still the highest scoring position in most FF leagues. Those differentials combined with the amount of pts QBs usually score would indicate that savvy FFers will buck this current trend of letting QBs drop too far and grab some substantial value in rounds 2 or 3, where you can get value that you normally only find in round 1.

 

 

Edited July 24, 2013 by Bronco Billy

[keggerz]

The latest rage in FF that will pave the way for the few thinking outside the "wisdom" to cash in.

 

QB scoring flattened last year, so the reaction is that it will stay status quote for the coming year. That may be a serious mistake.

 

On a 5 year average, the top 3 QBs score about 12.5% more FF pts than QBs 4-6 and about 28.5% more FF pts than QBs 8-10. Last season those differences dropped to 8.5% and 19% respectively, whereas the year before the average differences leapt to 23.5% and 46.5% respectively.

 

So we saw an overreaction last year to what was an incredibly unusual high scoring 2011, and now we're seeing a similar overreaction in the opposite direction to a really unusually flat 2012.

 

The last time we saw a similarly unusually flat year was 2008, and the following year the differentials jumped back up to close to mean differentials, where they stayed for 2 years.

 

QB is still the highest scoring position in most FF leagues. Those differentials combined with the amount of pts QBs usually score would indicate that savvy FFers will buck this current trend of letting QBs drop to far and grab some substantial value in rounds 2 or 3, where you can get value that you normally only find in round 1.

 

My thoughts on waiting on QB aren't just tied to last year...I've felt this way for close to a decade.

[Bronco Billy]

My thoughts on waiting on QB aren't just tied to last year...I've felt this way for close to a decade.

 

 

I know you are strongly committed to that path, but I prefer to see value across all positions and think that there may be some real bargains at QB considering the pt differential the top QBs generate - not to mention how much more predictable QB ranking can be than some other positions.

[keggerz]

A) Why do the "experts" continue to play non-PPR?

B ) Trying to start a QB run this year doesn't look like a viable strategy at all. Definitely not a position where I want to be first to pull the trigger. I'd rather have Ryan at 8.5 than Brees at 4.8 all day.

 

I despise Non-PPR even more than I do Non-IDP, and that is saying something.

[keggerz]

I know you are strongly committed to that path, but I prefer to see value across all positions and think that there may be some real bargains at QB considering the pt differential the top QBs generate - not to mention how much more predictable QB ranking can be than some other positions.

 

That's just it...many think that because QBs don't have the bust rate that they are the better picks, but because RBs/WRs bust more, especially beyond the 4-6th round range it makes it much more important to lessen your odds of having a bust by grabbing more of the position, earlier rather than later. I have ADP data that I mined when doing the QB Value article and it was eye opening to me...not sure if I have the time to do an article with it or not (I want to) but if not I might just publish the data for people to see and take what they can from it. Edited July 24, 2013 by keggerz

[Bronco Billy]

That's just it...many think that because QBs don't have the bust rate that they are the better picks, but because RBs/WRs bust more, especially beyond the 4-6th round range it makes it much more important to lessen your odds of having a bust by grabbing more of the position, earlier rather than later. I have ADP data that I mined when doing the QB Value article and it was eye opening to me...not sure if I have the time to do an article with it or not (I want to) but if not I might just publish the data for people to see and take what they can from it.

 

 

I guess my FF philosophy trends the opposite direction. I believe in being safe earlier in drafts and then trying to make a value impact after round 4, give or take. There are some players at RB/WR who might not have the upside of some of their sexier peers in the first few rounds, but given their ability, system, and durability you can make pretty solid guesses that they also have high floors.

 

My opinion is that after round 4 when the RB3s and WR3s lie is where with some careful analysis and observation that you can find the guys who are riskier but who also can rise a tier or a little more and outplay their draft position by a significant amount.

 

But I do know if I can get Brees or Rodgers after grabbing my top 2 skill guys, unless I have a really bad run of luck during the season or just flat out misguess multiple times in rounds 5-10 that I've got a playoff team, and that's the first step to winning the league.

[DMD]

No RG3 on either list? It is early so maybe I am missing something here?

 

 

Sorry - he always sorts out with 3 names. He went 6.9 and 6.11. I added him back in.

[Pope Flick]

Brady falling to the 5th. Remember this post, but Brady is one of the few guys who at this point in his career has made it very clear he makes the WRs and not vice versa. With his lack of INTs he's going to put up solid numbers. Hell, NE ran a ton last year (will they/can they do it again) and still managed to lead the league in total plays. It's called chances, folks, and Brady is your chance to get an advantage on others want to pass on him in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

 

You can go RB-WR-Brady this year? Sign me up!

Edited July 24, 2013 by Pope Flick

[delusions of grandeur]

While i'm firmly in the wait on QB camp, I agree with the above that once you get to the 3rd and 4th rounds, that I'm seriously lookng at any elite QBs that fel that far.

 

In past years, I've not usually gotten that opportunity, but this may be the year where QB can actually be a nice value pick (though you really can let the draft come to you, because there's certainly not a ton of risk in waiting until later, where you can even hedge your bets with a solid tandem if you wait really late).

Edited July 24, 2013 by delusions of grandeur

[MTSuper7]

I don't like this trend, but thankfully I don't think the guys in my main local will wait like this on QBs. I really like Romo and Luck this year at their ADP. Especially Romo... Not many signs the run game will improve a ton, a stud in Dez, a rock outlet in Witten, and a defense that probably won't do him many favors...

 

I firmly believe that Luck is the most likely sophomore to improve. And Kaepernick scares me... A lot.

[flemingd]

This is exactly why I'm looking for more granularity about the QB tiering and not advocating arbitrarily "waiting on QB". At some point the premium QB is worth the delta between that WR2 and WR4 that's available "later". Brees in the late 4th is criminal. I can pretty easily pass Rodgers to take a stud RB or WR or even Graham, but no way I'm passing him in favor of Ahmad freaking Bradshaw.

[irish]

Romo fell to me at 8.1 in a 10 team non ppr redraft last night, Ryan went at 5.4 and Brady at 6.4 .. I was hoping for Ryan at 5.10, but when he got nabbed, I passed on Brady at 5.10/6.1 since Brady, Stafford, and Romo were still on the board and 7/10 teams already had QBs. It's been a lonnnng time since I felt passing on Brady in the 6th was worth the risk!

 

 

In a 10-team league it seems like QBs slip even more but it's just because there are only 10 teams and rounds come to the turn much quicker. Talent in general naturally slides because of the fewer picks per round.

Edited July 24, 2013 by irish

[BA Baracus]

This is exactly why I'm looking for more granularity about the QB tiering and not advocating arbitrarily "waiting on QB". At some point the premium QB is worth the delta between that WR2 and WR4 that's available "later". Brees in the late 4th is criminal. I can pretty easily pass Rodgers to take a stud RB or WR or even Graham, but no way I'm passing him in favor of Ahmad freaking Bradshaw.

 

 

Exactly! I have always waited on a QB, but with popular sentiment now adopting this strategy, there is a strong likelihood that a better team can be constructed by using a little contrarian thinking. Like everything in life, the pendulum swings too far and it's better to be at the back of the heard when the buffaloes are running off the cliff...