davehb1 Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 As any Fantasy Football Owner worth their salt I have heard of the 3rd year WR theory, The idea that in their 3rd year most WR's have a breakout season. This theory hasnt seemed to hold true in 2005, According to this theory these wr's should be enjoying their breakout years: Charles Rogers Andre Johnson Bryant Johnson Taylor Jacobs Bethel Johnson Anquan Boldin Tyrone Calico Kelley Washington Nate Burleson Kevin Curtis Shaun McDonald Brandon Lloyd Bobby Wade Justin Gage Doug Gabriel Arnaz Battle Now some due to injury or suspension have not had the chance(C.Rogers, N.Burleson,etc...) and some are stuck in a really bad offense(A.Johnson) But otherwise this theory holds no water for 2005. Besides Boldin and A.Johnson no other wr on this list seems ready to be anything more than a decent #2 or 3 wr. And both Boldin and Johnson had their breakout years last year... Now look at wr's that will hit their 3rd year next year: L.Fitzgerald Ro.Williams Re.Williams L.Evans M.Clayton M.Jenkins R.Woods D.Henderson D.Watts K.Kolbert B.Berrian S.Parker C.Moore P.Crayton 7 of these wr's were taken in the 1st round. Which if any will have the 3rd year breakout? And which will fall by the wayside? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 I think Fitzgerald is already breaking out so cross him off the list. Crayton seems to be in a good position. Keyshawn or Glenn have to break down soon and he's already showing some promise. Clayton's showing signs of the sophomore slump but should rebound. One can say he had his breakout campaign last season as a rook. He might be comeback player next year ditto Roy Williams Jenkins is not going to do anything until they get rid of Vick. Samie Parker can't hang onto the ball but he's in a good position as well. Just that the KC offense seems to have taken a few steps back in the passing game this season. Woods is done. stick a fork in him. Moore is another dude that is on a bad passing offense but showed a couple flashes last season. Just don't seeing him being a "breakout" wr next season though Reggie Williams is a Bust Lee Evans has a good shot given that buffalo gets a starting caliber QB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrTed46 Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 (edited) OMG I just I vomitted on myself half way down the list. Please dont list so many bad players on the same post! Edited October 7, 2005 by MrTed46 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 (edited) There is no rule or theory that states any WR in his 3rd year will break out. Historically, however, if a given WR is gonna be a stud, he will usually breakout between his 2nd and 4th year. That's it, nothing more, nothing less. Edited October 7, 2005 by Brentastic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskey Pimp Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 I think it's a bit too soon to say these 3rd year WR's are a bust. It's only week 5 and any of them could turn in a breakout performance from here on out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexgaddis Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 There is no rule or theory that states any WR in his 3rd year will break out. ah, where have you been lately? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 (edited) ah, where have you been lately? 1050824[/snapback] Sorry, I've been thinking on my own, not recycling other people's garbage. Where have you been? Following the herd I see Edited October 7, 2005 by Brentastic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexgaddis Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 (edited) All I am saying is that there is DEFINATELY a theory that WR's tend to break out in their third year...talked about every year, EVEN HERE AT THE HUDDLE... don't be a Megan Fox I guess you are calling the writers at the huddle garbage? Edited October 7, 2005 by alexgaddis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 So nobody thinks Brandon Lloyd is breaking out this year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 (edited) All I am saying is that there is DEFINATELY a theory that WR's tend to break out in their third year...talked about every year, EVEN HERE AT THE HUDDLE...don't be a Megan Fox I guess you are calling the writers at the huddle garbage? 1050884[/snapback] And all I'm saying is, for me, there is no DEFINATE theory. In my mind, IF a WR is gonna be a stud, he will usually break out between his 2nd and 4th year. I don't automatically look at 3rd year WRs as sleepers. There are a lot of factors other than how long they've been in the league to consider. No, I don't think DMD writes garbage. I also think that he along with other knowledgeable fantasy owners would agree with my theory more than your idea that a 3rd year WR will break out. Edited October 7, 2005 by Brentastic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexgaddis Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 (edited) Then why do they do a feature on third year wide receivers? and ps - its NOT my idea, one I keep seeing on web-sites... Edited October 7, 2005 by alexgaddis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 Then why do they do a feature on third year wide receivers? and ps - its NOT my idea, one I keep seeing on web-sites... 1050922[/snapback] I edited my previous post to state "for me there is no definate theory". To answer your question, because they believe there is something to being a 3rd year WR. I do think some 3rd year WRs are of fantasy interest because of breakout potetial, but no more than a 2nd or 4th year guy with similar upside. The original poster of this thread listed every 3rd year WR in the league and it seems most people have the illusion that the 3rd year is the magic year. I'm not saying it can't be the magic year, only that isn't the only magic year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 One more thing and I'll stop. I look at this 3rd year thinking as anything that becomes trendy. Yeah, maybe recently 3rd year WRs have been breaking out more than 2nd or 4th or 5th etc... and now everyone and their cousin is on the bandwagon like it's gospel. I'm simply trying to make all of you realize your flawed thinking and get you on the right track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
conehead116 Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 So nobody thinks Brandon Lloyd is breaking out this year? 1050911[/snapback] I was wondering when somebody would catch that. He is having a very good season on a horrible team. I would consider that worth a mention in this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davehb1 Posted October 7, 2005 Author Share Posted October 7, 2005 The original poster of this thread listed every 3rd year WR in the league and it seems most people have the illusion that the 3rd year is the magic year. I'm not saying it can't be the magic year, only that isn't the only magic year. 1050942[/snapback] Actually my original topic was questioning the "3rd year rule" I brought up players currently in their 3rd year and wondered where the breakouts are.I also posted wr's who brokeout in there 2nd year(Andre Johnson) Furthermore as a topic of discussion I posted players who are going into their 3rd year next year and asked what potential there was for them to breakout. Do I believe that as a rule wr's breakout in their 3rd year? No. But I do beleive that history states that most wr's in the past do breakout in their 3rd year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 I was wondering when somebody would catch that. He is having a very good season on a horrible team. I would consider that worth a mention in this thread. 1050959[/snapback] yeah but the switch to Alex Smith will put an end to that. stat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 There is no rule or theory that states any WR in his 3rd year will break out. Historically, however, if a given WR is gonna be a stud, he will usually breakout between his 2nd and 4th year. That's it, nothing more, nothing less. 1050804[/snapback] Isn't the year between the 2nd and 4th year the 3rd? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Score 1 Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 So nobody thinks Brandon Lloyd is breaking out this year? 1050911[/snapback] Along with Arnaz Battle, Kevin Curtis & Shaun McDonald Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
conehead116 Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 One more thing and I'll stop. I look at this 3rd year thinking as anything that becomes trendy. Yeah, maybe recently 3rd year WRs have been breaking out more than 2nd or 4th or 5th etc... and now everyone and their cousin is on the bandwagon like it's gospel. I'm simply trying to make all of you realize your flawed thinking and get you on the right track. 1050955[/snapback] This 3rd year theory is presented because it takes between 2-4 years for a upside WR to get into the flow of the offense. I don't think anybody is taking it as gospel that there is any magic involved. Most informed FF's I know look at this information when trying to find a good value pick later in draft. By your own admission 3rd year WRs are making a jump up with greater frequency in recent years. I would say that your thinking is flawed if you ignore trends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 Just for fun, I'm gonna list the top 10 WRs (based on their 3 year average from my cbs.sportsline league) and the year they broke out. Torry Holt - 2nd year (could even argue rookie year) Terrell Owens - 2nd or 3rd year Randy Moss - rookie year Chad Johnson - 2nd year Marvin Harrison - 4th year Joe Horn - 5th year Hines Ward - 4th or 5th year Derrick Mason - 4th/5th year Darrell Jackson - 2nd year Isaac Bruce - 2nd year Obviously different samples will have different results, but the top 10 WRs based on their last 3 year average seems like a fair sample to me. Also the term "breakout" is subjective that is why I listed 2 years for some players to avoid argument. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 Isn't the year between the 2nd and 4th year the 3rd? 1050973[/snapback] It's the average, but what I was trying to say is that any of those years is breakout range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davehb1 Posted October 7, 2005 Author Share Posted October 7, 2005 (edited) Why is there a 3rd year theory? Here's some examples: Terrell Owens-2nd year 936yds 8tds - 3rd yr 1097yds 14tds Terry Glenn -2nd yr 431yds 2tds - 3rd yr 792yds 3tds Plaxico Burress-2nd yr 1008yds 6tds - 3rd yr 1325yds 7tds Chad Johnson - 2nd yr 1166yds 5tds - 1355yds 10tds Steve Smith - 2nd yr 872yds 3tds - 3rd yr 1110yds 7tds Santana Moss -2nd yr 433yds 4tds - 3rd yr 1105yds 10tds Bobby Engram -2nd yr 399yds 2tds - 3rd yr 987yds 5tds Joey Galloway -2nd yr 987yds 7tds - 3rd yr 1049yds 12tds Rod Smith - 2nd yr 237yds 2tds - 1180yds 12tds M.Muhammad - 2nd yr 317yds 0tds - 3rd yr 941yds 6tds Keyshawn Johnson - 2nd yr 963yds 5tds - 3rd yr 1131yds 10tds Laverneus Coles - 2nd yr 868yds 7tds - 3rd yr 1264yds 5tds Eric Moulds - 2nd yr 294yds 0tds - 3rd yr 1368yds 9tds Marcus Robinson - 2nd yr 44yds 1td - 3rd yr 1400yds 9tds Is it the gospel truth? No. Is there some truth to it? Seems that way... Edited October 7, 2005 by davehb1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 This 3rd year theory is presented because it takes between 2-4 years for a upside WR to get into the flow of the offense. I don't think anybody is taking it as gospel that there is any magic involved. Most informed FF's I know look at this information when trying to find a good value pick later in draft. By your own admission 3rd year WRs are making a jump up with greater frequency in recent years. I would say that your thinking is flawed if you ignore trends. 1050988[/snapback] First of all, I said MAYBE and secondly, I recognized this trend long before there were articles written on it. Learn how to read. Did you read all my posts before showing the world how stupid you are? Again, my whole point is that year number 3 is not the magic year, rather year 2,3,4 and sometimes 5 all have the same chance of being that breakout year for a given WR. Take a reading comprehension class and get back to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted October 7, 2005 Share Posted October 7, 2005 Why is there a 3rd year theory? Here's some examples: Terrell Owens-2nd year 936yds 8tds - 3rd yr 1097yds 14tds Terry Glenn -2nd yr 431yds 2tds - 3rd yr 792yds 3tds Plaxico Burress-2nd yr 1008yds 6tds - 3rd yr 1325yds 7tds Chad Johnson - 2nd yr 1166yds 5tds - 1355yds 10tds Steve Smith - 2nd yr 872yds 3tds - 3rd yr 1110yds 7tds Santana Moss -2nd yr 433yds 4tds - 3rd yr 1105yds 10tds Bobby Engram -2nd yr 399yds 2tds - 3rd yr 987yds 5tds Joey Galloway -2nd yr 987yds 7tds - 3rd yr 1049yds 12tds Rod Smith - 2nd yr 237yds 2tds - 1180yds 12tds M.Muhammad - 2nd yr 317yds 0tds - 3rd yr 941yds 6tds Keyshawn Johnson - 2nd yr 963yds 5tds - 3rd yr 1131yds 10tds Laverneus Coles - 2nd yr 868yds 7tds - 3rd yr 1264yds 5tds Eric Moulds - 2nd yr 294yds 0tds - 3rd yr 1368yds 9tds Marcus Robinson - 2nd yr 44yds 1td - 3rd yr 1400yds 9tds Is it the gospel truth? No. Is there some truth to it? Seems that way... 1051050[/snapback] Dudes, you are all missing the point. I'm not saying that WRs don't breakout in their 3rd year. I'm saying that year 3 is no more relevant than years 2 or 4. That's it, it really is that simple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davehb1 Posted October 7, 2005 Author Share Posted October 7, 2005 Dudes, you are all missing the point. I'm not saying that WRs don't breakout in their 3rd year. I'm saying that year 3 is no more relevant than years 2 or 4. That's it, it really is that simple. 1051071[/snapback] Actually I wasn't really responding to you. I was just throwing out some players and numbers. Everyone has their own opinion. But looking at these types of players and trends is interesting nonetheless Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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