Avernus Posted June 15, 2006 Share Posted June 15, 2006 Wrong question. The correct question is ... will the QB I draft in the 5th round plus the RB I get in the 2nd round get more points than Manning + the RB I draft in the 5th round. The drop off between Manning and a middle QB is not as severe as the drop off in RBs ... largely because most leagues only require ONE starting QB per team while TWO or more RBs are started per team. In GenLost last year all TDs are 6 points and Manning was drafted at 1.02 ... the next 5 rounds of that owner's team: 2.11 - BWestbrook 3.02 - TOwens 4.11 - KBarlow 5.02 - Roy Williams 6.11 - TJones At 1.02 this owner could have drafted SAlexander, still got Westbrook on the turn around, got Owens in the 3rd and then at 4.11 he could have ANY of the QBs that finished in the top 10 EXCEPT for Peyton Manning INSTEAD of Barlow. The difference between Manning (who finished 3rd overall behind Palmer and Brady) and the 10th QB was 48.85 points over 17 weeks ... an average of 2.87 points per week. The difference between SAlexander and KBarlow was 275.1 points ... or 16.18 points per week. Manning + Westbrook + Owens + Barlow+ Roy Williams + TJones vs SAlexander + Westbrook + Owens + Palmer + Roy Williams + TJones Obviously taking Manning in the second round would lower the numbers and they wouldn't be as extreme ... but I believe it would still hold true that for the most part you are better off letting somebody else draft QBs in the first 3 rounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 Wrong question. The correct question is ... will the QB I draft in the 5th round plus the RB I get in the 2nd round get more points than Manning + the RB I draft in the 5th round. The drop off between Manning and a middle QB is not as severe as the drop off in RBs ... largely because most leagues only require ONE starting QB per team while TWO or more RBs are started per team. In GenLost last year all TDs are 6 points and Manning was drafted at 1.02 ... the next 5 rounds of that owner's team: 2.11 - BWestbrook 3.02 - TOwens 4.11 - KBarlow 5.02 - Roy Williams 6.11 - TJones At 1.02 this owner could have drafted SAlexander, still got Westbrook on the turn around, got Owens in the 3rd and then at 4.11 he could have ANY of the QBs that finished in the top 10 EXCEPT for Peyton Manning INSTEAD of Barlow. The difference between Manning (who finished 3rd overall behind Palmer and Brady) and the 10th QB was 48.85 points over 17 weeks ... an average of 2.87 points per week. The difference between SAlexander and KBarlow was 275.1 points ... or 16.18 points per week. Manning + Westbrook + Owens + Barlow+ Roy Williams + TJones vs SAlexander + Westbrook + Owens + Palmer + Roy Williams + TJones Obviously taking Manning in the second round would lower the numbers and they wouldn't be as extreme ... but I believe it would still hold true that for the most part you are better off letting somebody else draft QBs in the first 3 rounds. Stop allowing clear logic and sound thinking to interfere with this discussion!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riffraff Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 Never say never... people can have Favre on their squad for pennies nowadays. Don't give up hope on having Peyton someday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengal Mania Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 (edited) EDIT TO ADD: Oops, thought I hit "reply" to Grits comments on my first post in this topic. Don't know how to add original post now in an edit........ A couple questions: 1) If you did take Manning in the 2nd (just humor me here), why would you wait 'til Rnd 5 to take RB2? In my example, I suggested that wherever you took Manning, you would get a "next-tier" RB in the next round. In your example you just exchanged 2nd and 5th round picks. Why? Based on your analogy, I can see where your WR's would drop a round each as well (to 4 and 5 instead of 3 a nd 4?), but you have know idea how they'll perform anyway, neither does anyone else. But we ALL know how Manning will perform. 2) Why does your example from last year show someone who picked Manning at 1.02? That's insane to take him that early. It doesn't really compare to the point I made. My point in a few posts is that Manning is worth considering in Rnd 2 and is a freakin' steal in Rnd 3. If I'm in a league that let's me be the sucker and take Manning when he was available in the 3rd or 4th round, I'll feel like thanking them for their money at that moment. Edited June 19, 2006 by Bengal Mania Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengal Mania Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 Stop allowing clear logic and sound thinking to interfere with this discussion!! So considering Manning in any earlier than Rnd 4 or 5 defies "clear logic and sound thinking"? I dare you to pass on him if he's available in Rnd 3. Please give us Non-experts an update after your draft if this happens. No need for corroborating witness. I'll believe you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 A couple questions: 1) If you did take Manning in the 2nd (just humor me here), why would you wait 'til Rnd 5 to take RB2? In my example, I suggested that wherever you took Manning, you would get a "next-tier" down RB. Based on your analogy, I can see where your WR's would drop a round each as well (to 4 and 5 instead of 3 a nd 4?), but you have know idea how they'll perform anyway, neither does anyone else. But we ALL know how Manning will perform. 2) Why does your example from last year show someone who picked Manning at 1.02? That's insane to take him that early. It doesn't really compare to the point I made. My point in a few posts is that Manning is worth considering in Rnd 2 and is a freakin' steal in Rnd 3. If I'm in a league that let's me be the sucker and take Manning when he was available in the 3rd or 4th round, I'll feel like thanking them for their money at that moment. 1) I would never take Manning in the 2nd ... but assuming I did both my WRs and my RBs will suffer. Assuming my "normal draft" is RB-RB-WR-WR-QB then if I go RB-QB-RB-WR-WR I suffer at RB2, WR1 and WR2. If I go RB-QB-WR-RB-WR I suffer at WR1, RB2 and WR2. Instead of getting Manning in the second round I'd rather have a RB or WR that "I know how he will perform" instead of getting Manning and guessing on RB/WR. Take a QB in the first 3 to 4 rounds and you play catch up the rest of the draft. 2) The example I provided was a REAL example in a $100 BOTH league. I am very happy to let you "steal" Manning in the 3rd round ... last year in several of my drafts I stole Palmer in the middle rounds and he out-performed Manning. Brady could be had late as well and both out-performed Manning. Culpepper was money in the bank last year too :doah: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengal Mania Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 1) I would never take Manning in the 2nd ... but assuming I did both my WRs and my RBs will suffer. Assuming my "normal draft" is RB-RB-WR-WR-QB then if I go RB-QB-RB-WR-WR I suffer at RB2, WR1 and WR2. If I go RB-QB-WR-RB-WR I suffer at WR1, RB2 and WR2. Instead of getting Manning in the second round I'd rather have a RB or WR that "I know how he will perform" instead of getting Manning and guessing on RB/WR. Take a QB in the first 3 to 4 rounds and you play catch up the rest of the draft. 2) The example I provided was a REAL example in a $100 BOTH league. I am very happy to let you "steal" Manning in the 3rd round ... last year in several of my drafts I stole Palmer in the middle rounds and he out-performed Manning. Brady could be had late as well and both out-performed Manning. Culpepper was money in the bank last year too :doah: OK - we agree to disagree. (Even though I'm not disagreeing entirely on the theory, just on where the point is that Manning becomes a value pick. Fair enough) I believed your example was real, I was just making it clear 1.02 was not the argument I was making. I'm sure we both agree that people who take Manning WAY to early (even though we disagree on the definition), probably don't kow as much about the rest of their picks, either. So it's not JUST the Manning pick that hurt them. I think I'm pretty good at getting value picks in later rounds as well, so I wouldn't balk at Manning in 2/3. 'nuff said, I know I'm not changing any minds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengal Mania Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 I'll add here what I added in the other post about Manning: Expert Mock Draft on Home Page. David Dorey takes Peyton Manning at 3.10 and calls it "ridiculous value". Kind of what I was saying, and with Science as my witness I didn't look at this mock until just now. You can all take it up w/ the Owner of this site. I feel extremely vindicated. DMD - there's a group here that think you're a bozo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 I'll add here what I added in the other post about Manning: Expert Mock Draft on Home Page. David Dorey takes Peyton Manning at 3.10 and calls it "ridiculous value". Kind of what I was saying, and with Science as my witness I didn't look at this mock until just now. You can all take it up w/ the Owner of this site. I feel extremely vindicated. DMD - there's a group here that think you're a bozo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 I'll add here what I added in the other post about Manning: Expert Mock Draft on Home Page. David Dorey takes Peyton Manning at 3.10 and calls it "ridiculous value". Kind of what I was saying, and with Science as my witness I didn't look at this mock until just now. You can all take it up w/ the Owner of this site. I feel extremely vindicated. DMD - there's a group here that think you're a bozo. Or there's a group here that respects DMD, but also realizes he's not infallible and might not always be right. Not too many people would avoid taking Manning at 3.10, and in some ways it is ridiculous value. When a player is widely regarded to be a top 15-20 pick, and you get him at 32, that's great value in terms of pick economy, but there are many of us that think picking Manning in the 15-20 range is a surefire way to hurt yout team. At 3.10 he's a very safe pick for consistant points at the QB position, and with some good creative drafting that selection can be made to blend in. Note that DMD already had his backs and can only say that Wayne and Mason 'Should be fine'. I think the point that you are missing is that you can get a QB worth starting later and focus on making sure you have scoring options at positions where the points are tougher to get. Starting QBs touch the ball on 99+% of the snaps taken by their team on offense. Points are there. The same is just not true for WRs and RBs. If you don't want to see that, it's fine...but it is a statistical fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 the only way I take Manning is if I already have my 2 RB's.... but even after that...I try to push the envelope and get the best value elsewhere.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengal Mania Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 (edited) Or there's a group here that respects DMD, but also realizes he's not infallible and might not always be right. Not too many people would avoid taking Manning at 3.10, and in some ways it is ridiculous value. When a player is widely regarded to be a top 15-20 pick, and you get him at 32, that's great value in terms of pick economy, but there are many of us that think picking Manning in the 15-20 range is a surefire way to hurt yout team. At 3.10 he's a very safe pick for consistant points at the QB position, and with some good creative drafting that selection can be made to blend in. Note that DMD already had his backs and can only say that Wayne and Mason 'Should be fine'. I think the point that you are missing is that you can get a QB worth starting later and focus on making sure you have scoring options at positions where the points are tougher to get. Starting QBs touch the ball on 99+% of the snaps taken by their team on offense. Points are there. The same is just not true for WRs and RBs. If you don't want to see that, it's fine...but it is a statistical fact. Thanks, but I'm not "missing" that point, nor refusing to see it. I understand all of it. It is fact that they touch the ball so much, the rest is subjective to a pint. You said so yourself in your first paragraph. "w/ creative drafting you can make him blend in" in the 3rd round." Are you kidding me? With some intelligent coaching to manage the other players, I guess you could blend in Albert Pujos, too. I bet if you went to the top 25 FFL websites (based on anyone's ranking) and asked all the FFL "professionals" at all of those sites if they would take Manning in the 3rd round (remember, they all run sites and purport to know what they are doing), I bet 90% or more would jump at Manning as "ridiculous value". Or is there some other point I'm missing? Edited June 19, 2006 by Bengal Mania Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 I bet if you went to the top 25 FFL websites (based on anyone's ranking) and asked all the FFL "professionals" at all of those sites if they would take Manning in the 3rd round (remember, they all run sites and purport to know what they are doing), I bet 90% or more would jump at Manning as "ridiculous value". Or is there some other point I'm missing? Then why was he available at 3.10? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 Thanks, but I'm not "missing" that point, nor refusing to see it. I understand all of it. It is fact that they touch the ball so much, the rest is subjective to a pint. You said so yourself in your first paragraph. "w/ creative drafting you can make him blend in" in the 3rd round." Are you kidding me? With some intelligent coaching to manage the other players, I guess you could blend in Albert Pujos, too. I bet if you went to the top 25 FFL websites (based on anyone's ranking) and asked all the FFL "professionals" at all of those sites if they would take Manning in the 3rd round (remember, they all run sites and purport to know what they are doing), I bet 90% or more would jump at Manning as "ridiculous value". Or is there some other point I'm missing? just because they take him in the 3rd doesn't make that choice the only choice you can make... these "experts" don't write the blueprint to drafting... if your blueprint to drafting the team you want has you taking the likes of Delhomme or McNabb in the 5th or 6th round instead of Manning in the 3rd because you want someone else there...it's not like those teams don't win... the point differential between Manning and the top 10 that was shown is the most accurate way to put it.... previous years, people were drafting Manning in the 1st...2nd...wherever...but still taking the other QB's where they wanted them.....I would take him where I want him....but usually I let someone else take him and take another QB a few rounds later so I can have that extra WR, TE or RB....and still get the QB I want anyways... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 Then why was he available at 3.10? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengal Mania Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 Then why was he available at 3.10? Hey, I (kind of) asked the question first. Why did DMD call him ridiculous value.? Why do most experts across the country have him in the top 20 overall? Look, man, it's all good. It's more than where you draft your QB, just like it's more than just your first pick. There's strategy and skill and luck in all of it. If it's me, I'd take him in Rnd 3 (even consider in Rnd 2 late), because I believe I know what I'm doing (mostly) w/ the rest of my picks. Obviously, others wouldn't touch him in the 3rd. It's a free country. I'll stop my part of the argument. This kind of arguing is usually about Big Ben or the Steelers, and I don't want to be associated w/ that chit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Scorp Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 Manning just went 2.11 (23rd overall) in the latest Huddle mock, we'll have to wait and see what DMD thinks of this. He went 1.7 in the first mock and his owner never recovered!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengal Mania Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 C'mon, everyone, admit it. Isn't it nice to be taking part in a ridiculous argument about someone other than Ben Roethlisberger? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Scorp Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 (edited) Yeah but Menudo will never have multiple posts in this thread Edited June 19, 2006 by T-Scorp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 Manning just went 2.11 (23rd overall) in the latest Huddle mock, we'll have to wait and see what DMD thinks of this. He went 1.7 in the first mock and his owner never recovered!! exactly.. taking a QB even in the 2nd round can cause permanent damage to your fantasy team... late in the 3rd can be justified... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 Hey, I (kind of) asked the question first. Why did DMD call him ridiculous value.? Why do most experts across the country have him in the top 20 overall? Look, man, it's all good. It's more than where you draft your QB, just like it's more than just your first pick. There's strategy and skill and luck in all of it. If it's me, I'd take him in Rnd 3 (even consider in Rnd 2 late), because I believe I know what I'm doing (mostly) w/ the rest of my picks. Obviously, others wouldn't touch him in the 3rd. It's a free country. I'll stop my part of the argument. This kind of arguing is usually about Big Ben or the Steelers, and I don't want to be associated w/ that chit! It is all good. I'm just carrying a flag I have carried for a while. I was one of thos people that spoke loudly and tried to caution my Huddle bretheren against picking Manning top 6 last year, but so many were inclined to do it and had poor fantasy seasons to show for it. I will do the same thing this season with Steve Smith and Carnell Williams. I just don't think these players will merit their ranking. Manning in the third round is no problem IMHO. At 3.10, with 2 RBS on staff I think it's a very good pick. Even with a top RB and a top WR I would consider it. In all the leagues I have been in and watched taking a QB too early has been fantasy suicide, so I never advocate it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 C'mon, everyone, admit it. Isn't it nice to be taking part in a ridiculous argument about someone other than Ben Roethlisberger? Ben who?... also...bah...espn news just started talking about him as I typed his name... if everyone gets together and stops typing his name..I think it'll go away until pre-season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Men In Tights Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 C'mon, everyone, admit it. Isn't it nice to be taking part in a ridiculous argument about someone other than Ben Roethlisberger? It's not a ridiculous argument either. It's like starting the WR that your opponents QB throws too. Like a very intelligent huddler once said, "Start/draft the players that score the most points." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengal Mania Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 It is all good. I'm just carrying a flag I have carried for a while. I was one of thos people that spoke loudly and tried to caution my Huddle bretheren against picking Manning top 6 last year, but so many were inclined to do it and had poor fantasy seasons to show for it. I will do the same thing this season with Steve Smith and Carnell Williams. I just don't think these players will merit their ranking. Manning in the third round is no problem IMHO. At 3.10, with 2 RBS on staff I think it's a very good pick. Even with a top RB and a top WR I would consider it. In all the leagues I have been in and watched taking a QB too early has been fantasy suicide, so I never advocate it. Agreed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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