Grits and Shins Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 ... make plays that no other QB today or ever can because of his atlhetic ability and speed (running). However, he can not make the simple plays that every other QB in the league can make. Heard Ed Warder (sp?) make that comment on the radio yesterday. I think it sums up Vick pretty well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 Hey FYI they found Lindbergh's baby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peepinmofo Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 ... make plays that no other QB today or ever can because of his atlhetic ability and speed (running). However, he can not make the simple plays that every other QB in the league can make. Heard Ed Warder (sp?) make that comment on the radio yesterday. I think it sums up Vick pretty well. Very valid point, and thats exactly why he would never be on my fantasy team... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junebugz Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 Very valid point, and thats exactly why he would never be on my fantasy team... I'm pretty sure he is in the top 10 scoring FF QB's more than ... say ... Big Ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 He's going to make enough plays this week to beat the Cowboys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted December 13, 2006 Author Share Posted December 13, 2006 He's going to make enough plays this week to beat the Cowboys. Not gonna happen. You can beat the cowboys by passing on them ... and that's not Vick's strength. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 Not gonna happen. You can beat the cowboys by passing on them ... and that's not Vick's strength. Cowboys just a FG favorite tells me this is close to a toss up. The key will be if the team has lost it's confidence after last Sunday's whooping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted December 13, 2006 Author Share Posted December 13, 2006 Cowboys just a FG favorite tells me this is close to a toss up. The key will be if the team has lost it's confidence after last Sunday's whooping. No that just means Vegas has set the line where they believe it will generate close to equal betting on both sides. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt. Ryan Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 Boys are money to win by over 3 this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 No that just means Vegas has set the line where they believe it will generate close to equal betting on both sides. I totally disagree. Vegas sets odds so they know they have a 50 percent chance of winning regardless of which side of the bet they are on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted December 13, 2006 Author Share Posted December 13, 2006 I totally disagree. Vegas sets odds so they know they have a 50 percent chance of winning regardless of which side of the bet they are on. And how is that different than what I said? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daboz Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 Vick still will toss a PICK or two Dal by 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 And how is that different than what I said? You comment says you think Vegas sets odds by who they think people will bet on. I say they handicap the game itself and let nature take it's course. Vegas in most cases has a stand in every game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 (edited) Not gonna happen. You can beat the cowboys by passing on them ... and that's not Vick's strength. Vick's scrambling adds a different dynamic, so your good rush defense will be exposed. Not to mention that at over 95 YPG, and 11 TD's allowed, the Cowboys rush defense isn't lights out, like, let's say, the Vikes for example. Especially if you tackle like you did against the Saints. Falcons win this one. You can take that to the bank. Sig bet? Edited December 13, 2006 by Hugh 0ne Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted December 13, 2006 Author Share Posted December 13, 2006 I totally disagree. Vegas sets odds so they know they have a 50 percent chance of winning regardless of which side of the bet they are on. You comment says you think Vegas sets odds by who they think people will bet on. I say they handicap the game itself and let nature take it's course. Vegas in most cases has a stand in every game. Your second comment is not the same as the first. Vegas could care less about which team actually wins the game. They set the line so that people will bet on both sides. Therefore they set the line based on how they percieve that the bettors believe the game will play out. And when they set the line incorrectly, i.e. too much money is coming down on one side, they move the line to compensate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 Funny, I'm a Saints fan and a Dallas fan this week. Dallas 27 Atlanta 20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 (edited) Your second comment is not the same as the first. Vegas could care less about which team actually wins the game. They set the line so that people will bet on both sides. Therefore they set the line based on how they percieve that the bettors believe the game will play out. And when they set the line incorrectly, i.e. too much money is coming down on one side, they move the line to compensate. No they handicap the GAME not the GAMBLERS. Thus the so called professional expert handicappers think this game is very close to being a toss up like I said in my first post. You think the line was set at 3 because the handicappers think the bettors think the game is a toss up. See the difference? If the line is 3 that means the experts think Dallas is going to win by around 3. They don't set the line because they think the bettors think the game will be Dallas by 3. Believe me Vegas don't worry too much about getting lopsided on a game as long as they think they have a shot at winning. In the end if Vegas does their homework right they should win at least 50% of the time since they are professional handicappers. They make their juice not because they get close to evenly split on every game, they make their 10% juice by winning 50% of all the games combined. Edited December 13, 2006 by Rockerbraves Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peepinmofo Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 (edited) I'm pretty sure he is in the top 10 scoring FF QB's more than ... say ... Big Ben Most leagues have 12 teams. That leaves 2 other starters. Going by the top 10 here at the huddle, where Vick is not listed, Id rather have Eli Manning or Matt Hass. over Vick. There prolly even 2 or 3 more Id choose over him. So ya, he will never be on MY team. ETA - He is top 10 in SOME leagues because of 3 good weeks he had. What has he done other then that? Edited December 13, 2006 by peepinmofo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted December 13, 2006 Author Share Posted December 13, 2006 No they handicap the GAME not the GAMBLERS. Thus the so called professional expert handicappers think this game is very close to being a toss up like I said in my first post. You think the line was set at 3 because the handicappers think the bettors think the game is a toss up. See the difference? If the line is 3 that means the experts think Dallas is going to win by around 3. They don't set the line because they think the bettors think the game will be Dallas by 3. Believe me Vegas don't worry too much about getting lopsided on a game as long as they think they have a shot at winning. In the end if Vegas does their homework right they should win at least 50% of the time since they are professional handicappers. They make their juice not because they get close to evenly split on every game, they make their 10% juice by winning 50% of all the games combined. We will agree to disagree ... I believe Vegas sets the line based on their perception of how bettors will behave and not on how they believe the teams will actually perform. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 Funny, I'm a Saints fan and a Dallas fan this week. Dallas 27 Atlanta 20 Why should Saints fans pull for the Cowboys? I don't think we need to worry about the Falcons anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 Believe me Vegas don't worry too much about getting lopsided on a game as long as they think they have a shot at winning. Vegas worries exactly about betting getting too lopsided on a game, regardless of whom they think will win the game (which they don't give a flying #### about). Vegas ideally always wants the money split evenly on each side of a bet so that payouts = payins and they merrily collect the vigorish with no payout from their pockets either way. That's exactly why betting lines move as the week progresses - to encourage bettors to bet the opposite way of lines that are overloaded on one side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peepinmofo Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 Why should Saints fans pull for the Cowboys? I don't think we need to worry about the Falcons anymore. Because they are division rivals. In or out of the playoffs, I will ALWAYS root for the team playing the dolphins. Unless its the Pats or jets... then I go for NO ONE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 We will agree to disagree ... I believe Vegas sets the line based on their perception of how bettors will behave and not on how they believe the teams will actually perform. Certainly don't want to come across as a know it all because I don't bet on games, however many many years ago I use to take bets and won enough to pay my way thru college. Trust me on this one I was lopsided on most games. In fact I actually thought about opening up an advice betting service based off of going opposite of the betting majority. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 Vegas worries exactly about betting getting too lopsided on a game, regardless of whom they think will win the game (which they don't give a flying #### about). Vegas ideally always wants the money split evenly on each side of a bet so that payouts = payins and they merrily collect the vigorish with no payout from their pockets either way. That's exactly why betting lines move as the week progresses - to encourage bettors to bet the opposite way of lines that are overloaded on one side. They do move the line when it gets to be way too lopsided, but if you notice it's not by much. The reason being they trust their handicapping and they know the professional gambler will make them pay if they don't have the game correctly handicapped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 Why should Saints fans pull for the Cowboys? I don't think we need to worry about the Falcons anymore. 1. Because I hate the Falclowns. 2. No matter how minimal the chance it IS still possible for the Falcons to win the division. 3. Because I think a Saints-Cowboys rematch in the playoffs would be a great game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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