Bronco Billy Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 Thews40 got me thinking when he posted this in the D Williams thread: The way I see it, if it's RBBC, the better back will shine eventually. Case in point would be Addai/Rhodes last year. Rhodes kept the starting job, but Addai was really the one that made the difference and eventually took over. So I checked when Addai carried the ball 16 or more times in a game vs when he carried it 15 or less times. 15 or less carries in a game: 94 carries for 488 yds, 5.19 ypc 16 or more carries in a game: 132 carries for 593 yds, 4.49 ypc That's a 15.6% drop in effectiveness when he gets more work in games. Then I also noticed that Addai's ypc went down as the year progressed: Oct ypc: 61 carries, 5.3 ypc Nov ypc: 68 carries, 5.0 ypc Dec ypc: 71 carries, 4.1 ypc In an admittedly small sampling (but that's all we have on Addai) we saw that as his workload went up to featured RB territory, his ypc dropped significantly, and the same thing happened as the year progressed. Now, in Addai's defense, his 4.49 ypc in games where he carried 16 or more times in a game ranks 10th among RBs last season who had 150 or more carries, so his numbers don't fall off the table & into oblivion. That said, it does make one wonder now that he'll be getting the predominance of the work all year if he has the stamina & durability to carry that kind of load effectively all year. Just some thoughts & idle speculation - but hopefully it will provoke a bit of thought and maybe some discussion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 Gimme a freakin break. you guys are over thinking this. My Mother could run in the Colts offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sturphy Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 Well, he was a rookie last year, and they do tend to hit a wall. That might help explain the ypc trending down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sturphy Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 Gimme a freakin break. you guys are over thinking this. My Mother could run in the Colts offense. Is her name DeDe Dorsey? I was wondering where she came from. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 7, 2007 Author Share Posted August 7, 2007 Well, he was a rookie last year, and they do tend to hit a wall. That might help explain the ypc trending down. I think that might be more valid if he had been counted on as the featured RB all year. As it was, he only exceeded 20 carries twice last year, so he was hardly run into the ground. Good point, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 7, 2007 Author Share Posted August 7, 2007 Gimme a freakin break. you guys are over thinking this. My Mother could run in the Colts offense. If you aren't interested in numbers, why the hell are you interested in FF? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sturphy Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 I think that might be more valid if he had been counted on as the featured RB all year. True. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 That said, it does make one wonder now that he'll be getting the predominance of the work all year if he has the stamina & durability to carry that kind of load effectively all year. Rookies tend to wear down faster towards the end of the year, but in his case I don't think he wore down as he wasn't in same same category as Caddy where he took off the ground a blazing and wore out midseason. He's going to be better just based on sheer reps and preperation for this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 (edited) A couple of things to consider... (1) Addai was used more heavily in the passing game than Rhodes, especially in the playoffs. (2) IIRC, outside of the Eagles game, Dungy tended to run something closer to a true RBBC when they were able to pound the ball down the opposition's throat (e.g., the Super Bowl, the first HOU game, the first TEN game). So Addai's better yds/carry average with fewer carries might have to do with the caliber of defense faced in those games. Addai was also the primary ball-carrier in a couple of games when neither back ran well (@ NE, the second JAX game). I'm not saying that you're wrong or that Addai will be able to handle a 350-carry season, but just that there are a lot of other factors at play. Personally, I see Addai getting about 280-290 carries and being very active in the passing game (55-65 rec). Dorsey will get a number of carries, but not to the degree that Rhodes did. Edited August 7, 2007 by Bill Swerski Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 7, 2007 Author Share Posted August 7, 2007 He's going to be better just based on sheer reps and preperation for this season. That's a valid thought. I've always been a proponent that RBs get better as they get more work & get into the flow of the game. That goes out the window, though, if a RB's stamina makes his performance drop as a game progresses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 7, 2007 Author Share Posted August 7, 2007 Personally, I see Addai getting about 280-290 carries and being very active in the passing game (55-65 rec). That would have put Addai at the 9th highest workload in the league last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 That's a valid thought. I've always been a proponent that RBs get better as they get more work & get into the flow of the game. That goes out the window, though, if a RB's stamina makes his performance drop as a game progresses. I agree, however we wont exactly know how his stamina holds up to the carries until after this year IMO, just not enough sampling. I do like to look at the numbers and appreciate the breakdown and discussion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 7, 2007 Author Share Posted August 7, 2007 I agree, however we wont exactly know how his stamina holds up to the carries until after this year IMO, just not enough sampling. Agreed - and if he can hold a 4.5 ypc as a featured RB, he'll have a hell of a year assuming he stays healthy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 That would have put Addai at the 9th highest workload in the league last year. Including the playoffs, he had 302 carries and 62 receptions last season. And I didn't see any evidence of him slowing down in January/February. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 Per Bill's post above, I wonder how much every RBs production decreases as Nov/Dec roll around, and the weather becomes an increasingly larger factor in an offense's overall ability to click? As such, it doesn't surprise me one bit to see his YPC fall off as the winter month's rolled around....it would surprise me greatly to see the other Top-10 RBs increase their YPC while Addai's decreased, though. Any statistician's out there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 7, 2007 Author Share Posted August 7, 2007 Per Bill's post above, I wonder how much every RBs production decreases as Nov/Dec roll around, and the weather becomes an increasingly larger factor in an offense's overall ability to click? As such, it doesn't surprise me one bit to see his YPC fall off as the winter month's rolled around....it would surprise me greatly to see the other Top-10 RBs increase their YPC while Addai's decreased, though. Any statistician's out there? Doesn't IND play inside? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 7, 2007 Author Share Posted August 7, 2007 (edited) Per Bill's post above, I wonder how much every RBs production decreases as Nov/Dec roll around, and the weather becomes an increasingly larger factor in an offense's overall ability to click? As such, it doesn't surprise me one bit to see his YPC fall off as the winter month's rolled around....it would surprise me greatly to see the other Top-10 RBs increase their YPC while Addai's decreased, though. Any statistician's out there? 2006 RBs - minimum 100 carries in weeks 1-9 vs minimum 100 carries in weeks 10-17, ypc: POS 1-9 10-17 Diff Ahman Green 4.71 3.41 down 1.30 ypc Cadillac Williams 3.65 3.43 down 0.22 ypc Chester Taylor 4.09 3.92 down 0.17 ypc Deuce McAllister 4.36 4.29 down 0.07 ypc Edgerrin James 2.80 4.22 up 1.42 ypc Frank Gore 4.75 6.01 up 1.26 ypc Jamal Lewis 3.51 3.70 up 0.19 ypc Joseph Addai 4.67 4.84 up 0.17 ypc Julius Jones 4.15 3.87 down 0.28 ypc LaDainian Tomlinson 4.90 5.49 up 0.59 ypc Larry Johnson 4.10 4.47 up 0.37 ypc Rudi Johnson 3.93 3.76 down 0.17 ypc Steven Jackson 4.06 4.76 up 0.70 ypc Thomas Jones 3.79 4.37 up 0.58 ypc Tiki Barber 4.83 5.41 up 0.58 ypc Travis Henry 4.17 4.72 up 0.57 ypc Warrick Dunn 4.50 3.40 down 1.10 ypc Willie Parker 3.92 4.91 up 0.99 ypc Willis McGahee 3.77 4.03 up 0.26 ypc Edited August 7, 2007 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 Per Bill's post above, I wonder how much every RBs production decreases as Nov/Dec roll around, and the weather becomes an increasingly larger factor in an offense's overall ability to click? As such, it doesn't surprise me one bit to see his YPC fall off as the winter month's rolled around....it would surprise me greatly to see the other Top-10 RBs increase their YPC while Addai's decreased, though. Any statistician's out there? I do know that it is not all that uncommon for a part time player to have a higher ypc than a full time starter. What i think is more important is the fact that he will have a full season under his belt, will have a better grasp of the offense, will have little to no competition for carries & has a ridiculously strong cast to support him...and I don't need to crunch any numbers to tell me all that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishFreak Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 Last year Addai averaged 4.8 per rush. Let's say he does wear down a bit to a very respectable 4.3 per rush. Assuming he has a bigger workload of say 280 carries, that still gets him over 1,200 yds. Now suppose he keeps a high YPC and and gets over 300 rushing attempts, you're looking at possibly 1,400 rushing yards. Factor in more catches and receiving yards and you have a stud. He's also money for 10+ TD's. Like I said before, expect Edge numbers. He's in the Colts O with a nobody RB backing him up. What's not to like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 (edited) 2006 RBs - minimum 100 carries in weeks 1-9 vs minimum 100 carries in weeks 10-17, ypc: POS 1-9 10-17 Diff Ahman Green 4.71 3.41 down 1.30 ypc Cadillac Williams 3.65 3.43 down 0.22 ypc Chester Taylor 4.09 3.92 down 0.17 ypc Deuce McAllister 4.36 4.29 down 0.07 ypc Edgerrin James 2.80 4.22 up 1.42 ypc Frank Gore 4.75 6.01 up 1.26 ypc Jamal Lewis 3.51 3.70 up 0.19 ypc Joseph Addai 4.67 4.84 up 0.17 ypc Julius Jones 4.15 3.87 down 0.28 ypc LaDainian Tomlinson 4.90 5.49 up 0.59 ypc Larry Johnson 4.10 4.47 up 0.37 ypc Rudi Johnson 3.93 3.76 down 0.17 ypc Steven Jackson 4.06 4.76 up 0.70 ypc Thomas Jones 3.79 4.37 up 0.58 ypc Tiki Barber 4.83 5.41 up 0.58 ypc Travis Henry 4.17 4.72 up 0.57 ypc Warrick Dunn 4.50 3.40 down 1.10 ypc Willie Parker 3.92 4.91 up 0.99 ypc Willis McGahee 3.77 4.03 up 0.26 ypc Looking at that list just about every one or everyone that saw the avg go up are most of the talented backs in the league. That bodes well. I'm really hating this dang w key Edited August 7, 2007 by Hat Trick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 my thoughts on Addai... I don't think there is even the slightest problem in regards to him being able to handle the load... he can catch and run....and he's on the Colts...a great offense... he's faster than Edge, so he can get more yac .... I am starting to wonder if LJ should be my 3rd pick...the line is not the same and he takes more of a beating from the few games I've watched... he'll still put up freak weeks...but I would feel the need to seriously handcuff this guy if I drafted him.... If I draft 3rd and LJ/Addai is available....I would seriously think it through Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDFFFreak Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 I'm not going try and overthink this one. Year after year, the Colts seem to run and pass well thanks to Manning. Even with the slight drop in numbers with more touches, Addai is a guy who is still going to get his. I think just about any healthy, reasonably young back would put up numbers and Addai fits the bill. Barring injury (him or Manning), Addai should be a top 5-7 RB this season. I don't associate too much risk with the guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Dogs Posted August 8, 2007 Share Posted August 8, 2007 Barring injury (him or Manning), Addai should be a top 5-7 RB this season. I don't associate too much risk with the guy. This is the key right there.........barring injury to him or Peyton, there isn't as much risk with Addai versus the other guys sloted between 3 - 7, and if anything, I want to mitigate risk around the player that my team will be built upon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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