Jints_fan_in_PA Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 Why did it seem so hard to find out about this guy's status. From what I can see, he is schedule to play in last pre-season game and then be evaluated. Anyone else out there have any news and think he was worth grabbing with 4th pick of 4th round in 12 man league? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrTed46 Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 4th pick in the 4th round? WOW I would be jumping for joy if I were you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfish247 Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 4th pick in the 4th round? WOW I would be jumping for joy if I were you. +1 He's been kept out of preseason work because he's a starter. Coaches have said that if it was the regular season he'd be starting. He was proclaimed the starter before TC and he remains the starter. He averaged almost 1 TD per game last season and 4ypc even with the nagging shoulder injury that has since healed. Yes the knee is a concern but even if you get 10 games out of him... that's probably 8-900yds/7-9 TDs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packerfan Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 I think his knee injury may linger for a while. I have a feeling Betts will have better numbers by the end of the season. Look at what Betts did last year in the amount of time he played. Also, there is a reason they gave Betts a huge contract in the off-season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 +1He's been kept out of preseason work because he's a starter. Coaches have said that if it was the regular season he'd be starting. He was proclaimed the starter before TC and he remains the starter. He averaged almost 1 TD per game last season and 4ypc even with the nagging shoulder injury that has since healed. Yes the knee is a concern but even if you get 10 games out of him... that's probably 8-900yds/7-9 TDs. Holy crap! Talk about optimism! Since Portis has played in WAS, he has run at an average that would put him at 1350 yds rushing & 9 TDs rushing, with another 255 yds & 0 TDs receiving. That is, IF he plays 16 games. Unfortunately, Portis has only managed to play 16 games in 2 of his 5 seasons, averaging 4 games missing when he doesn't play 16 games - and one of those 16 game seasons was his rookie year, where he didn't become the featured ball carrier until week 5. Now you look at the fact that he's already missing time in the preseason this year & there are the rumors of tendinitis, and one can only think, "Here we go again." Compounding the problem is that Betts performed studendously in portis' absence last season, averaging 122 yds/game rushing as a featured RB. That's more than a 40% increase in rushing production over what Portis has done, and he's a better receiver out of the backfield. Now, people will tell you that Portis is much better scoring TDs than Betts, but if you take Betts' rushing TD production as a featured RB and compare it to Portis' production, you'll see almost identical numbers. In short - Betts is fully capable of putting up as good or better numbers than Portis - even when Portis is healthy. Gibbs has already stated Portis & Betts will share time, and given their production there isn't any reason to think Gibbs is blowing smoke. Gibbs isn't stupid and he's seen how effective Betts can be. I do believe you're looking at a full blown RBBC here - and I also think that while Portis will get more of the work in the running game, that Betts will still get a good chunk of the running numbers and he will get the call in the passing game. It sure looks like a close to 50/50 split of FF numbers to me in WAS. I'd say you may have overpaid just slightly on Portis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 I just thought he was missing time because of what happened last year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfish247 Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 Also, there is a reason they gave Betts a huge contract in the off-season. Define huge... it's a 5 year deal worth $11 million. 3.5 was the signing bonus and 2 is a roster bonus. The Skins, not known for their personnel wizardry, didn't want their BACKUP hitting the market. If it was as huge as you suggest then why, months after he signed that huge contract and if the injury will keep Portis out, is Gibbs still saying... "Clinton is the starter and Ladell has a very important role," Gibbs said. "It's one of the strengths of our football team. I wish we were like that at every position." Coach Joe Gibbs continues to assert that had this been a regular season game, Portis would have been in the lineup, and that the tendinitis in his right knee is not severe. Gibbs and team doctors have supported a schedule of rest and rehab in an effort to limit stress on the knee as long as possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfish247 Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 (edited) Holy crap! Talk about optimism!... It sure looks like a close to 50/50 split of FF numbers to me in WAS. I'd say you may have overpaid just slightly on Portis. Umm, with a bum shoulder that required surgery and only 15 carries per game... Portis had 7 TDs in 8 games last year. The 8th game he managed only 6 carries until he broke a bone in his hand. The shoulder and bone are now fine and apparently his knee isn't serious enough to keep him out of regular season games. Betts, while he played great in Portis' absence, needed a map to find the end zone... 4 TDs on 245 carries, or 1 TD every 2+ games. How exactly is 800-900 total yards and 7-9 TDs over TEN games for Portis optimistic? Even if the Betts/Portis share continued last season for 10 games... in 10 games at his pace with a bum shoulder, Portis would've ended with 9 TDs and ~650yds. That's about a TD per game and 65-75 yds... not bad for an RB2 or RB3 if he's lasting into the 4th round. Edited August 28, 2007 by kingfish247 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 How exactly is 800-900 total yards and 7-9 TDs over TEN games for Portis optimistic? When he's played 39 games in WAS and scored 23 rushing TDs. That's 9.44 rushing TDs in a 16 game season - and again, he's only had 1 - count 'em - 1 16 game season in WAS. The 800-900 total yds in 10 games is feasible - again, if he's carrying the bulk of the load, like he did before Betts showed everyone what he could do. To think that Portis will do that now that Betts has shown what he's capable of can only politely be called wildly optimistic. Again, Betts has shown that he's capable of outproducing Portis given the same opportunity. Look, if you're a Portis owner and you're hoping that he returns to numbers that justify using a 1st round pick on him, I wish you the best. I don't own Portis or Betts in any of the league that I play in, and I could really care less. I just think those days are long past, and as long as Portis is in WAS & Betts is there & healthy too, they're destined to cut up the work load between them so that neither is going to put up prodcution that makes them anything better than middle round RBs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brownsfan420 Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 Look at what Betts did last year in the amount of time he played. Also, there is a reason they gave Betts a huge contract in the off-season. Based on this skewed logic, everyone should be skeptical of LT2 and just start Turner. Hey, he looked great in limited work and just signed a nice new contract! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 Based on this skewed logic, everyone should be skeptical of LT2 and just start Turner. Hey, he looked great in limited work and just signed a nice new contract! Mr. Pot, this is Mr. Kettle. Mr. Pot: "Damn, you are one black S.O.B.!" Talk about skewed logic - comparing LT the Ironman stud & Turner in SD with the Portis/Betts situation in any meaningful way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 Umm, with a bum shoulder that required surgery and only 15 carries per game... Portis had 7 TDs in 8 games last year. The 8th game he managed only 6 carries until he broke a bone in his hand. The shoulder and bone are now fine and apparently his knee isn't serious enough to keep him out of regular season games. Betts, while he played great in Portis' absence, needed a map to find the end zone... 4 TDs on 245 carries, or 1 TD every 2+ games. How exactly is 800-900 total yards and 7-9 TDs over TEN games for Portis optimistic? Even if the Betts/Portis share continued last season for 10 games... in 10 games at his pace with a bum shoulder, Portis would've ended with 9 TDs and ~650yds. That's about a TD per game and 65-75 yds... not bad for an RB2 or RB3 if he's lasting into the 4th round. do you mean 1650 yds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfish247 Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 (edited) When he's played 39 games in WAS and scored 23 rushing TDs. That's 9.44 rushing TDs in a 16 game season - and again, he's only had 1 - count 'em - 1 16 game season in WAS. We're talking apples/oranges here... I don't know about you but the Skins run game appeared much more effective under Saunders in his first season than the previous seasons that Portis/Betts were there. I can't argue with Portis' overall average TD per season rate in WAS. However last season, he scored 7 TDs in 8 games... that pace is better than his average WAS TD rate. The 800-900 total yds in 10 games is feasible - again, if he's carrying the bulk of the load, like he did before Betts showed everyone what he could do. To think that Portis will do that now that Betts has shown what he's capable of can only politely be called wildly optimistic. Again, Betts has shown that he's capable of outproducing Portis given the same opportunity. Even in a 50/50 split... assume 221 touches (2006 total touches for Portis and Betts / 2) each all using '06 stats: Portis averaged 4.8 yards per touch, 1 TD per 20 touches... 1060 total yards, 11 TDs. Betts averaged 5.4 yards per touch, 1 TD per 59 touches... 1193, 4 TDs. Keep in mind this was a healthy Betts vs. a one-armed Portis. The above is assuming a full blown RBBC. Judging from Gibbs' comments it does not sound like a full blown RBBC. Maybe 60/40 AND judging from how they used Portis last year, Portis getting goalline work. Look, if you're a Portis owner and you're hoping that he returns to numbers that justify using a 1st round pick on him, I wish you the best. I don't own Portis or Betts in any of the league that I play in, and I could really care less. I just think those days are long past, and as long as Portis is in WAS & Betts is there & healthy too, they're destined to cut up the work load between them so that neither is going to put up prodcution that makes them anything better than middle round RBs. I don't own Betts or Portis in any of my leagues. And I don't know of anyone who spent a 1st round pick on Portis this season. For full disclosure, I would've gladly taken Portis as my RB2. I probably would've looked to snag Betts but I wouldn't have bent over backwards to reach for him. This thread was started by someone who took Portis in the 4th round. Edited August 28, 2007 by kingfish247 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfish247 Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 (edited) do you mean 1650 yds? Nope. Portis' avg ypg in '06 was ~65 yards in 8 games. 65 * 10 = 650. I was merely pointing out Portis' production even if you only got 10 games out of him. That's without mentioning that he didn't play a full game in weeks 1 or 8. Edited August 28, 2007 by kingfish247 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrTed46 Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 I really do think you guys are huge on Betts. I am not convinced he is as good as people think he is. I hope he proves me wrong but I dont see it. IMO Portis is the better back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 In a mandatory 3 man BOTH Keeper I took Portis at 2.05, the potential was too good for me to pass up. I avoided him in my other 3 BOTH drafts but he was sitting there calling for me to pick him, we'll if it works out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfish247 Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 (edited) I think Betts is good but his contract or his performance in 6-7 games last year doesn't mean he's supplanted Portis. If we're talking contracts... Portis is only 3 years into an 8 year $50.5 million contract with $17.5 million in signing/option bonuses. Betts will play his role. He most definitely will cut into Portis' FF value. If I were Skins' management, NEITHER should be relied upon FULLY for how much the Skins like to run the ball. Can Portis or Betts handle 400+ touches? Probably not. Is there enough FF value for Portis even assuming a worse case 50/50 split? Absolutely, he would still be a good RB2/great RB3 in a non-PPR b/c he gets the red zone carries. I'd worry more about both Portis AND Betts if Samuels has to miss significant time. Edited August 28, 2007 by kingfish247 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Holliday Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 IMO anyone who thinks Betts even has a chance to take the job from Portis is fooling themselves. he is a excellent backup who will keep Portis at about 18 carries a game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 I really do think you guys are huge on Betts. I am not convinced he is as good as people think he is. I hope he proves me wrong but I dont see it. IMO Portis is the better back. exactly...Betts has always been the injury prone one....now after 1 healthy season in his contract year, he's a beast?.....I don't buy it... I expect Portis to be fine without practicing during the weeks and just playing on sundays... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicster Posted August 29, 2007 Share Posted August 29, 2007 Someone mentioned that Betts didn't find the endzone as much as Portis did last season, or at the same rate. But, I believe that Jason Campbell took over at QB about the same time that Portis went out. I'd venture to guess that the offense wasn't moving as consistently as it was while Brunell was in there prior. Not saying that Brunell was better, just that he probably managed the game a little better in the beginning than Campbell later on. To be honest, not sure how much, if any, the QB situation played in their stats, but it is worth mentioning. Once again, I'm disclaiming saying it is a direct correlation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted August 29, 2007 Share Posted August 29, 2007 Someone mentioned that Betts didn't find the endzone as much as Portis did last season, or at the same rate. But, I believe that Jason Campbell took over at QB about the same time that Portis went out. I'd venture to guess that the offense wasn't moving as consistently as it was while Brunell was in there prior. Not saying that Brunell was better, just that he probably managed the game a little better in the beginning than Campbell later on. To be honest, not sure how much, if any, the QB situation played in their stats, but it is worth mentioning. Once again, I'm disclaiming saying it is a direct correlation. Brunell averaged 179 yards a game. Campbell averaged 185 yards a game. Portis shared time with Betts. Betts didn't share time once he started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted August 29, 2007 Share Posted August 29, 2007 IMO anyone who thinks Betts even has a chance to take the job from Portis is fooling themselves. he is a excellent backup who will keep Portis at about 18 carries a game. What is the world coming to? A Lions fan is the one speaking the truth? And 18 touches a game is right where Portis needs to stay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slugs Posted August 29, 2007 Share Posted August 29, 2007 I have taken the Portis pill twice in three years and I can tell you that he is wasting space no matter where you find him. Lucky for me, someone else nabbed him this year at the end of the 4th round. Left me to pick up the Ladell Betts pill in the 10th round. Wanna bet who looks better at the end of the season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Holliday Posted August 29, 2007 Share Posted August 29, 2007 What is the world coming to? A Lions fan is the one speaking the truth? Punk. I have taken the Portis pill twice in three years and I can tell you that he is wasting space no matter where you find him. Lucky for me, someone else nabbed him this year at the end of the 4th round. Left me to pick up the Ladell Betts pill in the 10th round. Wanna bet who looks better at the end of the season? I would bet Portis has more rushing yards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted August 30, 2007 Share Posted August 30, 2007 Punk. I would bet Portis has more rushing yards. I would bet Portis has a lot more yards and touchdowns. Portis is a special talent, Betts is what he is... A very good backup. I actually hope the skins get rid of Portis. He'd look good in Green and Gold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.