Week 1 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[wildcat2334]

1-0 to start with Indy- nice call on the under fellas. Heading out of town - playing a few games before I take off.

 

all favorites, unusual for me- but I like all 3.........

 

Hou -3

Jax -6.5

Sea -6

 

 

Not a bad first weekend, also hopped on Pitt, but didn't post it here

 

leaning towards Dallas, but the line has crept to 7.............

[Lucky11]

missed DEN and JAX today

 

hit the under in GB and SEA -6

 

i really like DAL -6 (and it's moved to -7 since i got home)

 

any opinion on the O/U line (45)? i'm leaning toward the under as it's moved from up from 43.

 

good luck tonight!

[rattsass]

It's been a good day so far!

 

Any thoughts on tonight's game?

 

Considering how close the G-man and Cowboys play each other, logic would point toward taking the NYG + the 7 points.

 

Unfortunately I have absolutely no faith in the Giants, and can't do what logic tells me to do. I lean Cowboys tonight, but I would be betting real small on this one either way you go.

[Menudo]

Put a small bet on a two team teaser tonight:

 

Cowboys (Pick)

Under 52

[Lucky11]

Put a small bet on a two team teaser tonight:

 

Cowboys (Pick)

Under 52

like that a bunch...hope it hits!

[i_am_the_swammi]

looks like Menudo did ok.

 

Its common knowledge that the amount you move the point spread, whether its 6, 7, or 10 points, comes into play very infrequently in relation to the probability of getting both games correct. Look at today's games where moving the line made no difference:

 

NO/IND

JAX/TEN

PIT/CLE

NE/NYJ

DET/OAK

SD/CHI

CAR/STL

MIN/ATL

SEA/TB

 

and those that did:

 

WAS/MIA

PHL/GB

DEN/BUF

 

In only three games did moving the spread an extra 6 points matter.

 

You are much better off playing each game straight up, rather than teasing them together (despite Menudo's win today). The bookies love teasers....my guy refers to it as "desperation" time.

 

But do as you wish....its your money.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

You are much better off playing each game straight up, rather than teasing them together (despite Menudo's win today). The bookies love teasers....

But do as you wish....its your money.

obviously, or they would'nt offer them. I don't bet on football and , honestly, don't understand "teasers".... good luck with your bets though.

[i_am_the_swammi]

obviously, or they would'nt offer them.

 

not necessarily. they love them because they are much more difficult to hit than straight-up bets, and the public thinks they are getting a "gift" of an extra 6-points to the line.

 

Dre, just out of curiosity, do you have any true stats on teasers? I know you need to hit 53% of straight-up bets to break even....based on the probability of getting two games rught, how many teasers do you have to win? I am guessing its in the 57-58% area.

[Gdawg]

Lang had an above average day. Lang still sucks. You want to follow him, keep on rockin in the free world.

 

Betcha we as a collective do better than he does...even without a free radio show.

 

Gdawg today::

 

Hou plus 3 WIN

GB U 43 WIN

CHI plus 7 Loss

TB plus 6 Loss

PIT -5 WIN

BUF plus 3 WIN

DAL -6 looking good

 

Sorry I haven't been around much, work has interfered with my prognostications. Hopefully I'll be able to chip in soon and help y'all.

Edited September 10, 2007 by Gdawg

[Gdawg]

My pick for tommorrow: BAL +2.5

 

Good weather tommorrow in CIN. Last year the Ravens lost in CIN 13-10, if I recall correctly. Bad weather, rainy. McNair is TERRIBLE in the rain. Just God awful. Check his record.Ugh. However, not supposed to rain tomoorow.

 

The CIN defense is awful. Just awful. No LB's at all. Housh will play, but will probably be somewhat limited. No Chris Henry, so CIN will have to lean somewhat on Tab Perry. Does that inspire confidence in you?

 

On the BAL side M. Clayton is somewhat limited by a hamstring injury. To me, that is only of moderate import. As long as he can run his routes, that's all that matters. Look for D, Williams for the Ravens, he's their best receiver. I think he makes the difference.

 

The CIN defense is awful, the weather will be good. Even Billick can't lose this one.

 

Ravens win outright. Take them and the points.

 

Disclaimer: If I'm wrong, sue the Bicardi corporation. They have much deeper pockets

[Goopster24]

Gdawg, I am also on Baltimore +2.5

 

I also am on 49ers -3.

 

For the totals, I am looking at the UNDER for the Ravens game and the OVER for the 49ers. Thoughts guys?

[Gdawg]

Gdawg, I am also on Baltimore +2.5

 

I also am on 49ers -3.

 

For the totals, I am looking at the UNDER for the Ravens game and the OVER for the 49ers. Thoughts guys?

 

Goopster, agree with SF -3. G/L tomorrow bro!

 

Get back to you on the totals

Edited September 10, 2007 by Gdawg

[Steeltown Dre]

Congratulations guys - Week 1 is almost over and by the looks of it, most of you have more in your pockets than you started with. We're off to an excellent start. My plays yesterday went 3-0 (Hou, Buf, SD), add that to the 2-0 I went on Thursday, and I'm undefeated so far this year. My leans were 3-1 yesterday (Pit, Sea, GB winners, NYJ loser). We can't get much better than that.

 

I played more favs than usual, but favs in general went 8-5-1 so far this week. As for O/U, the U has gone 10-4, which is similar to last year, which leaned more to the under than average. So all the unders players, nice work.

 

I'll see what's looking good for tonights games, if anything.

 

As for the teasers, I will probably do a writeup about that for the Week 2 thread. I can share a lot of info on that. I'll just pass on Week 1 info in a minute, as the rest will take some time to research and write up.

[Goopster24]

Congratulations guys - Week 1 is almost over and by the looks of it, most of you have more in your pockets than you started with. We're off to an excellent start. My plays yesterday went 3-0 (Hou, Buf, SD), add that to the 2-0 I went on Thursday, and I'm undefeated so far this year. My leans were 3-1 yesterday (Pit, Sea, GB winners, NYJ loser). We can't get much better than that.

 

I played more favs than usual, but favs in general went 8-5-1 so far this week. As for O/U, the U has gone 10-4, which is similar to last year, which leaned more to the under than average. So all the unders players, nice work.

 

I'll see what's looking good for tonights games, if anything.

 

As for the teasers, I will probably do a writeup about that for the Week 2 thread. I can share a lot of info on that. I'll just pass on Week 1 info in a minute, as the rest will take some time to research and write up.

 

Nice job Dre, looking forward to what you post about Monday night.

[wildcat2334]

for tonight....I am on

 

 

Balt +3

Balt/Cin over 40

SF -3

 

 

 

good luck all

[Goopster24]

for tonight....I am on

Balt +3

Balt/Cin over 40

SF -3

good luck all

 

Any specific reason for the over? Just getting as much info as I can, thanks!

[Steeltown Dre]

Week 1 Teaser recap:

 

As you know, teasers come in a few styles:

 

2 team, 6 point teasers (you can add teams if you want)

3 team, 10 point

4 team, 13 point

 

I'll show you the probabilities and the hits of the various teasing methods.

 

Week 1, we had favs go 8-5-1. If you took a fav ATS, you had a 62% chance of getting it right this week ATS.

 

If you look at all those favs and teased them 6 points, they would have gone 10-3-1. Meaning they hit at 77%. But because you need to get at least 2 to hit your teaser, your odds shot down to 59% overall.

 

If you teased 10 points, you only improved by 1 game: 11-2-1. That's 85%, but since you need 3 to win your teaser, you had a 61% chance of actually hitting.

 

If you took the 4 team, 13 pointer, you would have gone 12-2 (86%). But you need to hit 4 to win, so you had overall odds of success of just 54%.

 

So, if we're talking only favs here, you had a better chance of getting a single ATS game right (no teasing) than you did of hitting any sort of teaser.

 

Now, if you took dogs:

 

Week 1, dogs went 5-8-1 (38%)

 

If you teased 6 points, they went 8-6-1 (57%). Much better, but when you factor that you have to hit 2 dogs to win a 6 point teaser, your odds dropped to 33%.

 

10 point teasers: 9-5-1 (64%). But you had to hit 3 games, so your odds dropped to 27%.

 

13 point teasers: same as 10 point 9-5-1 (64%). But you had to hit 4 games, so now your odds were only 17%.

 

So whether it was dogs or favs, teasing was a losing proposition in week 1 (on average). That's not saying you couldn't have won, of course you can win. But your odds were better to just bet on a single game than to take a teaser.

 

I can tell you real quick that teasing the over did not do any better - any single game ended up having a higher % of winning (even though they only went 4-10) than any sort of teaser.

 

I'll run through some numbers at a later point in time this week, and break it down more for you. There are times when it would be more adventageous to tease than others (where they have a better chance of helping you win). But for the most part, you are better off picking the right side of 1 game than teasing multiple games.

 

The outlets dangle the points out there, like a dirty hooker in the balcony of a 2nd story old west whore house. They know to the average joe, who is scared to lose money, the points look like all the confidence they need to place their bet. And that's all the outlet wants, is for you to place your bet. Because they know, the majority of bets placed are losing bets. And so the problem for the average joe is, he usually picks the wrong spots to tease or picks the wrong side to tease, and ends up losing money. Remember, it's always an odds game. Sure, you need to have skill, too. But even the best gamblers out there know that you'll win some and lose some. You can beat the odds if you are great, but you have to know when and how to place your bets.

 

Bottom line - ON AVERAGE, teasers actually give you less a chance to win than picking 1 team ATS. Sometimes juice is worse, too. There is a time to play a teaser, so they are not always bad. I don't say I avoid them 100% of the time, but I'm much happier w/ straight wagers than hanging my hopes on multiple different games. I'll recap this in the Week 2 thread, and show some numbers from 2000 onwards, and show some situations where teasing has actually been beneficial...

[Crazysight]

Pretty good week. Deposited 350 dollars, received 50 dollar bonus, than one 310 dollars by going 3 out of 4 on my bets.

 

Can't say I like the looks of the odds this week though. What does everyone see in the lines this week? I've put a little bit on the moneylines for a couple underdogs, Tennessee and Houston. I think they both have a decent shot to win. Don't see much overall though right now.

[Crazysight]

Actually the points for Cincinatti vs. Cleveland look decent. Good chance that one is a blowout I think.

[i_am_the_swammi]

Week 1 Teaser recap:

 

So, if we're talking only favs here, you had a better chance of getting a single ATS game right (no teasing) than you did of hitting any sort of teaser.

 

So whether it was dogs or favs, teasing was a losing proposition in week 1 (on average). That's not saying you couldn't have won, of course you can win. But your odds were better to just bet on a single game than to take a teaser.

 

I can tell you real quick that teasing the over did not do any better - any single game ended up having a higher % of winning (even though they only went 4-10) than any sort of teaser.

 

I'll run through some numbers at a later point in time this week, and break it down more for you. There are times when it would be more adventageous to tease than others (where they have a better chance of helping you win). But for the most part, you are better off picking the right side of 1 game than teasing multiple games.

 

The outlets dangle the points out there, like a dirty hooker in the balcony of a 2nd story old west whore house. They know to the average joe, who is scared to lose money, the points look like all the confidence they need to place their bet. And that's all the outlet wants, is for you to place your bet. Because they know, the majority of bets placed are losing bets. And so the problem for the average joe is, he usually picks the wrong spots to tease or picks the wrong side to tease, and ends up losing money. Remember, it's always an odds game. Sure, you need to have skill, too. But even the best gamblers out there know that you'll win some and lose some. You can beat the odds if you are great, but you have to know when and how to place your bets.

 

Bottom line - ON AVERAGE, teasers actually give you less a chance to win than picking 1 team ATS. Sometimes juice is worse, too. There is a time to play a teaser, so they are not always bad. I don't say I avoid them 100% of the time, but I'm much happier w/ straight wagers than hanging my hopes on multiple different games. I'll recap this in the Week 2 thread, and show some numbers from 2000 onwards, and show some situations where teasing has actually been beneficial...

 

...which is why its commonly referred to as a sucker bet.