Menudo Posted September 7, 2007 Share Posted September 7, 2007 maybe you shouldn't listen to me afterall... somehow I pulled out Parlays and Browns vs Steelers.....and then you being a Steelers fan... yeah I'm a big retard... It's all good dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted September 7, 2007 Share Posted September 7, 2007 I read somewhere that last years week one totals were like 3-11 over the total number. 3 overs and 11 unders, any truth to this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted September 7, 2007 Share Posted September 7, 2007 I read somewhere that last years week one totals were like 3-11 over the total number. 3 overs and 11 unders, any truth to this? That trend wouldn't shock me. Betting public loves to play the overs in the hope of high-scoring games. Vegas can artifically push the line higher, based on people's ill-conceived notion's. I think they have done this with this week's Philly/GB line...more realistic number would be 38-39. Also, you may want to check out a past thread from Dre regarding O/U in the preseason. Heavy trend was to the under. In my mind, Week 1 is in some ways an extention of the preseason in that the public really knows very little about the true quality of the teams on field. So for lack of anything else, they bet the over, hoping for a fun game to watch. Kind of like all the people that took the over last night, not really understanding that the Colts defense is a lot better than anyone expected, and the Saints offense not as good as advertised...regardless, Vegas took heavy money on the over and won big. Pathetic reasoning, but true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAYER Posted September 8, 2007 Share Posted September 8, 2007 (edited) Just a side note on the Pit game. No, zero, zilch first year head coach for the Steelers have won their first game in Cleveland. With that being said I still love the Steelers -4.5 Edited September 8, 2007 by SLAYER Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussMan Posted September 8, 2007 Share Posted September 8, 2007 Here are my first two bets of the season.... By "teasing" the bet (which means I choose 2 games but have to be right on both to win) the line moves 6 points in my favor. I have had the best luck with these kind of bets ! I usually like the home favorites, but this week I going with 3 road teams DEN, KC, and PIT vs what were some pretty bad teams last year. 2 Team Teaser Denver Broncos +3 Su Competitor: Buffalo Bills Jacksonville Jaguars -1 Competitor: Tennessee Titans ----------------------------------------------------- 2 Team Teaser Kansas City Chiefs +9 Competitor: Houston Texans Pittsburgh Steelers +½ Competitor: Cleveland Browns Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted September 9, 2007 Author Share Posted September 9, 2007 I read somewhere that last years week one totals were like 3-11 over the total number. 3 overs and 11 unders, any truth to this? I looked this up earlier, but didn't post on it, because yes, you are close to being correct, but it's misleading. In 2006 Unders went 12-4. But, you have to look at it over time. 2005 Unders went 9-7. Same for 2004 and 2003. But in 2002, Unders went 4-12. Since 2000, the first week Unders have gone 64-47 (58%). The rest of the weeks (2-17) Unders have gone 51%. So yes, unders may go "off" a little more on average in the 1st week, but I'd be very suprised if it was ANYTHING like last year's 75%. Expect more like prior years, of 9-7, if you are expecting an "average" turnout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted September 9, 2007 Author Share Posted September 9, 2007 Be careful on these games guys. Not saying they'll lose, he's got so many he'll win a few, the question is, which ones? Brandon Lang's plays: Brandon Lang SUNDAY 20 DIME CHARGERS 10 DIME Patriots Steelers Eagles 5 DIME Vikings Raiders Buffalo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMikeinNY Posted September 9, 2007 Share Posted September 9, 2007 There is only one play you need today to make money. Pitt - 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goopster24 Posted September 9, 2007 Share Posted September 9, 2007 I got four bets in the books: Buffalo +3 Philly -3 Pitt -5 Philly/GB UNDER 42 GL to all! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goopster24 Posted September 9, 2007 Share Posted September 9, 2007 I am also trying to get a sense on the Panthers/Rams game but I don't know which way I am leaning. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menudo Posted September 9, 2007 Share Posted September 9, 2007 (edited) I did a 3-team teaser (+10) and have the following: Denver +7 Philly +7 Tennessee +17.5 Edited September 9, 2007 by Menudo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo Rising Posted September 9, 2007 Share Posted September 9, 2007 (edited) I called my guy this morning and he has the Steelers at -6! Literally spit out my orange juice. Edit: I still took em. Edited September 9, 2007 by Mojo Rising Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goopster24 Posted September 9, 2007 Share Posted September 9, 2007 I called my guy this morning and he has the Steelers at -6! Literally spit out my orange juice. Edit: I still took em. What did that line open at? I got -5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo Rising Posted September 9, 2007 Share Posted September 9, 2007 What did that line open at? I got -5. Here are the line movements, lowest they had it opening was -3.5. http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-v...09-07/time/1300 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted September 9, 2007 Share Posted September 9, 2007 I'm on: Texans -3 Pitts -5 Stl -1.5 Det +2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted September 9, 2007 Author Share Posted September 9, 2007 I got four bets in the books: Buffalo +3 Philly -3 Pitt -5 Philly/GB UNDER 42 GL to all! I like a few of those. Like Buf. I made a couple of smaller plays today. I'm not much of an "action guy" - I play when I see an advantage and I play to win $. I can watch games without money on the line and enjoy them and most importantly - study and learn from them. As to my plays: small play on Hou, small play on Buf. Don't forget about the fade on the SB loser - 0-10 ATS now for the last 10 years - I checked the last 3 and they all lost, so not sure about years prior. That would be a play on SD. Other favs that could cover but I have not made plays on: Pitt and Sea. Other dogs that may cover: GB, NYJ Again, I went light this week - not in love w/ any particular play this week. Good luck guys. If you rolled high, hope you get the $$! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goopster24 Posted September 9, 2007 Share Posted September 9, 2007 I am really curious about placing a small bet on the the Rams. The Panthers have been horrible week 1. Any other thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goopster24 Posted September 9, 2007 Share Posted September 9, 2007 Keepin it to four bets, let's bash the bookie! GL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goopster24 Posted September 9, 2007 Share Posted September 9, 2007 Seahawks -5.5 1 unit Bucs/Seahawks UNDER 41 2 units Raiders -3 1 unit Lions/Raiders UNDER 39.5 2 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted September 9, 2007 Share Posted September 9, 2007 I did a 3-team teaser (+10) and have the following: Denver +7 Philly +7 Tennessee +17.5 nice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted September 9, 2007 Share Posted September 9, 2007 2 Team Teaser Denver Broncos +3 Su Competitor: Buffalo Bills Jacksonville Jaguars -1 Competitor: Tennessee Titans ----------------------------------------------------- 2 Team Teaser Kansas City Chiefs +9 Competitor: Houston Texans Pittsburgh Steelers +½ Competitor: Cleveland Browns Why teasers should never be played.... oh, and that PHI/GB under was a gimme....hope you boys jumped on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted September 9, 2007 Share Posted September 9, 2007 Why teasers should never be played.... looks like Menudo did ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted September 9, 2007 Share Posted September 9, 2007 I'm on: Texans -3 Pitts -5 Stl -1.5 Det +2 3 out of 4. Plus 2 units. Yes, I got paid to sit on my ass today. That is what I call a good day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo Rising Posted September 9, 2007 Share Posted September 9, 2007 It's been a good day so far! Any thoughts on tonight's game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goopster24 Posted September 9, 2007 Share Posted September 9, 2007 (edited) Split the late games. Giants +6.5 2 units Edited September 9, 2007 by Goopster24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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