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New primaries in Florida and Michigan


Randall
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According to Chuck Todd on Meet the Press Michigan will probably have a new caucus/primary but Florida doesn't want to pay for one.

 

He thinks eventually (according to what he has heard down there) they will probably seed delegates according to nationwide popular vote totals of Clinton and Obama. Those would probably be equal at this time.

 

But then nothing has really gone the way the pundits expected this year, but that does make sense unless the Democratic Party pays for a caucus.

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Hillary would fight a new primary for both states. Obama would fight the votes that were thrown out from counting. Both states knew that moving the primaries up would have penalties. They also knew what the penalties would be. I knew my vote "wouldn't count". I still voted. I know a lot of people who didn't.

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I would think that anything loess than an "as is" count of votes/delegates in FL and MI would be a defeat for Hillary. Obama didn't campaign in FL, MI, or NV, and Hillary hopes to take all the delegates in those states.

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There's really no choice, and the national party should foot a part of the bill with the state parties picking up the rest.

 

Otherwise, these votes shouldn't count, nor be "re-seeded." If the Dems don't step up and fix this and soon they run the risk of having the nom being chosen by SuperDelegates (which might happen with re-votes anyways) with these states on the side, thereby disenfrachising two of the larger states and putting the 2008 GE at risk for sure, not to mention creating a situation that will haunt them for a long, long time.

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After watching my weekly dose of Sunday political talk shows, the most likely scenario is a Michigan caucus and a Florida problem. Florida will take their issue to the committee where Obama and Clinton would control half of the discussion. The most likely outcome would be to have Florida represented based on the national vote: a tie. Florida would be represented, but it wouldn't matter. A Michigan caucus would favor Obama more than a Michigan primary.

 

I still think neither votes should count. The esteemed leaders of each state's party knew the rules and broke them. If Michigan and Florida get a redo, what will stop states from doing it again?

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After watching my weekly dose of Sunday political talk shows, the most likely scenario is a Michigan caucus and a Florida problem. Florida will take their issue to the committee where Obama and Clinton would control half of the discussion. The most likely outcome would be to have Florida represented based on the national vote: a tie. Florida would be represented, but it wouldn't matter. A Michigan caucus would favor Obama more than a Michigan primary.

 

I still think neither votes should count. The esteemed leaders of each state's party knew the rules and broke them. If Michigan and Florida get a redo, what will stop states from doing it again?

 

 

Well a re-do I dont think would encourage it to happen again: they moved up to have an ealier say in the process, since usually its wrapped up by early March. A "do-over" certainly demonstrates that going against the party wishes won't succeed.

 

Pragmatically, this has to happen given the tightness of the race. That's the only real reason it's at all relevant right now.

 

From what I have heard, candidates can pull their names from the Michigan primary through a simple pledge, whereas to pull your name off the FL ballot you have to sign a pledge stating you're not running for Prez at all. That's why Obama and Edwards were on the FL ballot at the time, and Clinton left herself on the MI ballot even though Obama and Edwards agreed to the boycott and pulled their names.

 

I think any revote of any type favors Obama, especially post Bill Clinton in SC remarks. He hammers her in a caucus for sure, but she's losing to him across the board, and this Tuesday in VA,DE and DC will be very telling.

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this Tuesday in VA,DE and DC will be very telling.

If the numbers hold the way they are now, it shouldn't be close at all on Tuesday. I think this will really affect Clinton in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania. People usually like to vote for a winner. If Obama keeps winning by a hugh margin in this upcoming states, he could win many delegates or win outright in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania.

 

She has three weeks until the next "winnable" states. Isn't this similar to the Rudy campaign? I just don't see it working.

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After watching my weekly dose of Sunday political talk shows, the most likely scenario is a Michigan caucus and a Florida problem. Florida will take their issue to the committee where Obama and Clinton would control half of the discussion. The most likely outcome would be to have Florida represented based on the national vote: a tie. Florida would be represented, but it wouldn't matter. A Michigan caucus would favor Obama more than a Michigan primary.

 

I still think neither votes should count. The esteemed leaders of each state's party knew the rules and broke them. If Michigan and Florida get a redo, what will stop states from doing it again?

 

The committee you are referring to is supposedly made up of 3 individuals, and all 3 were former officials in the Bill Clinton administration. Nice huh?

Edited by CaP'N GRuNGe
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The committee you are referring to is supposedly made up of 3 individuals, and all 3 were former officials in the Bill Clinton administration. Nice huh?

Then the Sunday shows were wrong. :wacko: Maybe that was a real celebration that Hillary gave in Florida. :D

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Clinton's campaign manager quits. I may be wrong, but these are usually cases where things aren't going right.

 

Sounds like there were rumors after Iowa that they might have made the switch in NH, but then the vote came down and Hillary surprised.

 

The news mentioned something about too much confusion in courting superdelegates or something and tracking all that as one reason for this move.

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