Perchoutofwater Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 Is it getting better or worse? You read one article and it looks like it is getting better, then the next one you read it seems like it is getting worse. Unemployment is rising, but not as fast, home starts a falling but not as fast, etc.... I heard on the radio that a recent poll showed Americans more confident in the economy than they have been in the last 7 (or 9 I don't remember) years. I'm like You don't bring me flowers...ANYMORE!? Then I read turn around not expected until next year. So is it getting better or worse? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 I gauge it by the strength of the dollar.....I could be off here though... when I see the price of gas, gold and other things going up...that's the dollar going down.... and based on the fact that gold has gone up 15 bucks since this morning and about 55 bucks over the last 3 weeks or so, I'll say that's a bad sign....I can't chime in on the gas prices, because they seem to vary from state to state.....so maybe there is an average we can go off here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 I'm no economist but I am a financial analyst and I feel like I have a strong understanding of our economy. I'll say this - it's going to get much, much worse, IMO. Basically, our entire economic philosophy (Keynesian) is wrong, again, IMO. The way the Fed manipulates money supply to increase or decrease interest rates has caused false valuation on everything. The Fed's intentions may be good, but the result is extreme boom/bust cycles that could be less extreme if we would only allow the free market to work. The end result of this continual manipulation will be a much harsher crash - and the longer we try to sustain an endless 'boom' (which is a Keynesian fantasy) instead of letting the free market determine supply/demand, the harder and more violent the crash will be. Many people, economists included, will strongly disagree with my opinion on this because our entire economic structure is based on this philosophy of controlling money supply. Hopefully the catastrophe that will inevitablly ensue, will cause our current way of thinking to be adjusted toward a more 'natural' approach. Anytime you frack with nature, you will pay the price. In this case, the natural movement of our economy is being manipulated and we will suffer catostrophic consequences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 (edited) I know alot of people are worried about hugh inflation coming because of all our spending. I heard some financial expert on the radio the other day who didn't think that would be a problem as this isn't the typical recession and the recovery will take a good 4-5 years so we will have time to tighten the monetary supply over a long period of time and prevent it. Edited May 21, 2009 by CaP'N GRuNGe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted May 21, 2009 Author Share Posted May 21, 2009 I know alot of people are worried about hugh inflation coming because of all our spending. I heard some financial expert on the radio the other day who didn't think that would be a problem as this isn't the typical recession and the recovery will take a good 4-5 years so we will have time to tighten the monetary supply over a long period of time and prevent it. Ok, is that good or bad news? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 Ok, is that good or bad news? Reality I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 I'm no economist but I am a financial analyst and I feel like I have a strong understanding of our economy. I'll say this - it's going to get much, much worse, IMO. Basically, our entire economic philosophy (Keynesian) is wrong, again, IMO. The way the Fed manipulates money supply to increase or decrease interest rates has caused false valuation on everything. The Fed's intentions may be good, but the result is extreme boom/bust cycles that could be less extreme if we would only allow the free market to work. The end result of this continual manipulation will be a much harsher crash - and the longer we try to sustain an endless 'boom' (which is a Keynesian fantasy) instead of letting the free market determine supply/demand, the harder and more violent the crash will be. Many people, economists included, will strongly disagree with my opinion on this because our entire economic structure is based on this philosophy of controlling money supply. Hopefully the catastrophe that will inevitablly ensue, will cause our current way of thinking to be adjusted toward a more 'natural' approach. Anytime you frack with nature, you will pay the price. In this case, the natural movement of our economy is being manipulated and we will suffer catostrophic consequences. You are exactly right. In the past the US ROUTINELY had banks fail, depositers lose all theor money and the economy would tank every 10-15 years or so. The multitude of events that caused the Great Depression led to the idea if that the market was better regulated, these boom/bust cycles would eventually end and the market could remain "stable". Enter the birth of the middle class of America. All that has done is set us up for a bigger fall over time. Stupid ideas like having the states return to a loose conglomeration of semi-wilderness territories with aeconomies based on slave labor isnt the answer either (sorry Perch!) It seems that with the US economy based on OVER consumption and high levels of consumer action, we will ALWAYS be headed for a fall, and the vicious cycle will begin again. I feel like we are the little guy on "The Price is Right" that is hiking up the alps, climbing higher and higher on the "wealth" mountain before falling off into the abyss . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 Reality I guess. I'd consider it rather optimistic to tell you the truth... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 I'd consider it rather optimistic to tell you the truth... I'm shocked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 I'm shocked. I constantly throwing curveballs over here.....stay on your toes, everyone.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 I think the economy is still getting worse, but at a lessening rate of getting worse. I do still think that there is a not unrealistic chance that things take a sudden severe turn for the worse if the financial system locks up again. My guess would be that this will not happen, but I also think we are just going to plod along for a few years and have low growth rates rather than the economy suddenly ramping it up again. Concerning Brentastic's notion that the Fed has induced a wild boom-bust cycle, I would strongly suggest that the economy was much more volatile before the Fed was created. (Note: this does not mean that I think the Fed is perfect by any stretch of the imagination.) Finally, I'm still not worried about inflation for the reason I indicated here: http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...p;#entry2768649 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 I think the economy is still getting worse, but at a lessening rate of getting worse. I do still think that there is a not unrealistic chance that things take a sudden severe turn for the worse if the financial system locks up again. My guess would be that this will not happen, but I also think we are just going to plod along for a few years and have low growth rates rather than the economy suddenly ramping it up again. Concerning Brentastic's notion that the Fed has induced a wild boom-bust cycle, I would strongly suggest that the economy was much more volatile before the Fed was created. (Note: this does not mean that I think the Fed is perfect by any stretch of the imagination.) Finally, I'm still not worried about inflation for the reason I indicated here: http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...p;#entry2768649 I'm not sure that comparing the volatility of the markets between now and nearly 100 years ago has much relativity - some, but not much. If the Fed had never been created, I would concur that there would be more fluctuation in the markets, but nothing too extreme or 'generation crushing' (I just came up with that sweet a$$ term ) like we are about to face. No person(s) is smart enough to predict and avoid all the ramifications resulting from the constant manipulating of the money supply that the Fed does. The only thing that can be done at this point is recognize that we have over-supplied the economy with too much credit and too much crap that no one is buying (or going to buy until deflation is at it's worst). Then, once the Fed/Government recognize this, they must avoid the temptation to play 'god' with the markets and let the free market do it's thing. Regarding the idea that we may see hyper-inflation - I think we are beginning a deflationary depression. Now is the time to be long on cash and savings. Spending right now, and in the immediate future, IMO, is foolish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Finally, I'm still not worried about inflation for the reason I indicated here: http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...p;#entry2768649 the part you leave out is the additional inflationary pressure created by projected deficits of 5% of GDP for the next decade plus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted May 22, 2009 Author Share Posted May 22, 2009 Stupid ideas like having the states return to a loose conglomeration of semi-wilderness territories with aeconomies based on slave labor isnt the answer either (sorry Perch!) I've never supported slave labor. I do think that most of the power the Federal Government has grabed in the last 73 years should be placed back in the hands of the states. If trying to call me a back woods racist makes you feel better about yourself, then I'm glad I was able to do something for you, but you do not do a very good job of trying to portray my beliefs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimC Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 I'm no economist but I am a financial analyst and I feel like I have a strong understanding of our economy. I'll say this - it's going to get much, much worse, IMO. Basically, our entire economic philosophy (Keynesian) is wrong, again, IMO. The way the Fed manipulates money supply to increase or decrease interest rates has caused false valuation on everything. The Fed's intentions may be good, but the result is extreme boom/bust cycles that could be less extreme if we would only allow the free market to work. The end result of this continual manipulation will be a much harsher crash - and the longer we try to sustain an endless 'boom' (which is a Keynesian fantasy) instead of letting the free market determine supply/demand, the harder and more violent the crash will be. Many people, economists included, will strongly disagree with my opinion on this because our entire economic structure is based on this philosophy of controlling money supply. Hopefully the catastrophe that will inevitablly ensue, will cause our current way of thinking to be adjusted toward a more 'natural' approach. Anytime you frack with nature, you will pay the price. In this case, the natural movement of our economy is being manipulated and we will suffer catostrophic consequences. Well said. And true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Neutron Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 The way the Fed manipulates money supply to increase or decrease interest rates has caused false valuation on everything. I think that is spot on. I also think that all of the poor unemployed folks will begin defaulting on their homes, causing another wave of bad news in the housing/banking arena. Home values will continue to go down and more and more people will be upside down in their mortgages. A lot of what I read points to a looming commercial real estate problem. There is also some noise out there about consumer debt and student loans - both of which are not going to be helped by the massive loss of jobs that is slowing, but not reversing by any measure. Then there's the whole baby boomer generation soon to hit the SS and medicare rolls. Nevermind that those programs are nearing insolvency everytime congress passes another spending bill. Pretty cheery stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 I've never supported slave labor. I do think that most of the power the Federal Government has grabed in the last 73 years should be placed back in the hands of the states. If trying to call me a back woods racist makes you feel better about yourself, then I'm glad I was able to do something for you, but you do not do a very good job of trying to portray my beliefs. Perch I would NEVER call you a backwoods racist. The comment about slave labor is that you seem to wax nostaligic about how great it was back in the days of the founding fathers and the original constitution. Back then, the economy was largely based upon slave labor. See the connection? Your desire to essentially eliminate the federal government and revert to a loose collaboration of semi-independent states isnt the answer either in the new globalization of the world economy. Hell . . I wish SOMEONE had the answer because the last 8 years have been crap and they dont look much better with the new administration . . . . bottom line is that us spoiled Americans like spending beyond our means and prefer to live in a fantasy land where our economy will continue to steadily grow every single year, and our property value will rise every year too. Hell, isnt that how Madoff scammed everyone? Tricking them into believing that he made money steadily EVERY year?!?!?!?!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 bottom line is that us spoiled Americans like spending beyond our means and prefer to live in a fantasy land where our economy will continue to steadily grow every single year, and our property value will rise every year too. Hell, isnt that how Madoff scammed everyone? Tricking them into believing that he made money steadily EVERY year?!?!?!?!? exactly U.S. household leverage, as measured by the ratioof debt to personal disposable income, increased modestly from 55% in 1960 to 65% by the mid- 1980s.Then, over the next two decades, leverage proceeded to more than double, reaching an alltime high of 133% in 2007. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 exactly Did you just AGREE with me? Cue the end of the world . . . . I think Nostradamus wrote this in his 4,003 quatrain . . . . or maybe that referred to Perch . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Did you just AGREE with me? Cue the end of the world . . . . I think Nostradamus wrote this in his 4,003 quatrain . . . . or maybe that referred to Perch . . . i have always thought most people spent too much. they played keeping of with the joneses til it killed our nation and economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Irish Doggy Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 i have always thought most people spent too much. they played keeping of with the joneses til it killed our nation and economy. Heh. More like keeping up with the Trumps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Heh. More like keeping up with the Trumps. concerning this idea, see this paper which was written by one of my dissertation co-chairs: http://artsci.wustl.edu/~fazz/Cyn%20Fazz%20Dist%200807.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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