kingfish247 Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 gotta love the Eddie George like 3.4 YPC avg for the year Yeah, except for his decline in red zone looks, except for his ypc, except for his non-4 TD game vs CAR, except for his 85 ypg, except for Ryan playing lights out, except for Gonzo, except for the RB2 and FB hawking his looks in close... it's pretty much exactly like 2008. Again, not saying he's not good or people shouldn't have drafted him or bench him or whatever... just saying those expecting same or more in TDs and yards this season are in for a let down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted September 21, 2009 Author Share Posted September 21, 2009 (edited) Yeah, except for his decline in red zone looks, except for his ypc, except for his non-4 TD game vs CAR, except for his 85 ypg, except for Ryan playing lights out, except for Gonzo, except for the RB2 and FB hawking his looks in close... it's pretty much exactly like 2008. Again, not saying he's not good or people shouldn't have drafted him or bench him or whatever... just saying those expecting same or more in TDs and yards this season are in for a let down. I think that was exactly what I was saying too. Edited September 21, 2009 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfish247 Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 (edited) Through week 2... Turner has 3 runs of 10+ yds (6% of his carries). Last year 12% of Turner's rushes were 10+yds. Turner has 2 total rush attempts inside the opponent's 10 yard-line. Last year Turner averaged over 2 rushes per game inside the opponent's 10 yard-line. This is what happens when a back's QB is hitting his receivers more frequently and in the red zone. What's happening is that Turner is no longer the focus of the offense. Turner is in an Edge-in-Indy-type RB situation... good OL, very good QB, good receivers... leading to decent rushing totals of around 80 to 110 yds and a TD every 6 or 7 quarters of play. Unlike Edge-in-Indy, Turner gets no passes or dump offs. Edited September 24, 2009 by kingfish247 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
42zero Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 Anyone remember only 2 games have been played so far? Everyone will be forgetting this when Turner scored 3 td's soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 just saying those expecting same or more in TDs and yards this season are in for a let down. whoa dude, out on a limb there Turner will be fine. In fact I have someone looking to move him and am tempted to swap him for D Williams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 whoa dude, out on a limb there Turner will be fine. In fact I have someone looking to move him and am tempted to swap him for D Williams. Nothing's as risky as predicting a regression to the mean! his ADP absolutely showed that MANY people were NOT expecting a regression to the mean...otherwise he wouldnt have been getting drafted in the top 5 in PPR leauges Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfish247 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 (edited) Nothing's as risky as predicting a regression to the mean! That's not the point. Go back through this thread and others... some were predicting the same or MORE TDs and yards this year for various reasons. One of the main reasons being that Ryan and the overall offense will be better this year. Well... the opposite can be true, is true thus far, and will be true the rest of the season. Edited September 25, 2009 by kingfish247 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardsmen Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 you do realize that if you buy a 12 pack of beer you will have twice as many beers as Turner had receptions last year....Turner and passing game should not be used in the same sentence unless it is to point out that he isn't involved in it. I just might be wrong about ATL, it wouldn't be the first time but it is my opinion...I think everyone knows that I am big on stats and trends and a major trend is that the Falcons have never put together back to back winning seasons....even when they had that great QB Mike Vick under center For a twelve pack of beer i will trade u Turner for a nobody. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Irish Doggy Posted October 11, 2009 Share Posted October 11, 2009 Wow, Turner and all of ATL getting right vs. the niners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted October 11, 2009 Share Posted October 11, 2009 Wow, Turner and all of ATL getting right vs. the niners. Wow is right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted October 11, 2009 Share Posted October 11, 2009 I bet Turner gets work horse'd again after this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 It could be worse . . . we could be talking about Steve Slaton's immense suckitude . . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LayLow Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 where are the Turner haters now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 (edited) where are the Turner haters now... so you have to be a hater to point out something that you think should be a warning about drafting a player for the year/....emphasis on YEAR as I didnt say GAME....22-97 3 is a very very nice game but look a bit deeper at the numbers and imo there is still reason to be concerned and I dont think that by years end Turner will not live up to the top 3-5 that he was being drafted in... 22-97 3 4.41 YPC 1 run 33 yards 1 run 1yard TD 1 run 3 yard TD lose those 3 carries and you end up with 19-60 3.16 YPC the reason I pulled the 2 TD runs is because they couldnt be any longer....and I am sorry but 3.16 isnt a YPC that is going to make me feel all warm and fuzzy and if you expect you are gonna get multiple TDs for the majority of the remaining weeks you aren't being very realistic in your expectations Edited October 12, 2009 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 22-97 31 run 33 yards 1 run 1yard TD 1 run 3 yard TD lose those 3 carries and you end up with 19-60 3.16 YPC the reason I pulled the 2 TD runs is because they couldnt be any longer....and I am sorry but 3.16 isnt a YPC that is going to make me feel all warm and fuzzy and if you expect you are gonna get multiple TDs for the majority of the remaining weeks you aren't being very realistic in your expectations Keg, I respect your analysis and all, but again, you take any runner who has had a nice day and eliminate his best run or runs and you can come up with a crappy YPC 99.99% of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 oh and if you add in what turner scored today to his previous season total of 36.1 points he jumps up to 63.8 points for the season and to 9th overall at RB..... ......unfotunately that 9th ranking wont hold since I didnt add scores for all the other RBs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Keg, I respect your analysis and all, but again, you take any runner who has had a nice day and eliminate his best run or runs and you can come up with a crappy YPC 99.99% of the time. when 34% of their yards come from one play I still feel it is worth looking at and realizing that said player isnt having exactly the day you think he is. if he was a guy that regularly ripped off 20+ yard runs and did that around a bunch of 2-4 yard carries then it wouldnt make as much sense to look at it like that....but turner is a pounder and I still see a reason to be concerned....I wasnt foolish enough to think he wouldnt have good games...i just didnt see him living up to his ADP...mainly it was because I expect the falcon to have a tough time winning this year....so far I have been wrong about that as they have looked good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
42zero Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Anyone remember only 2 games have been played so far? Everyone will be forgetting this when Turner scored 3 td's soon. Like I was saying... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 when 34% of their yards come from one play I still feel it is worth looking at and realizing that said player isnt having exactly the day you think he is. What does that analysis actually mean in terms of anything tangible though? ADP is the best runner in the NFL, if you take away his best run per game, through 5 games his YPC is a pedestrian 3.5. If it wasn't for his Week 1 performance, ADP's take away the best run per game YPC becomes a 2.1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Irish Doggy Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Keg is not a hater, and I didn't bump the thread to try and embarrass him or anyone else. Turner's YPC last year was in the 3s in many games last year as well. His points come from getting 25 carries per game, ample goal line opportunities, and breaking a couple big runs here and there - mostly against bad rush defense teams.. So far he's had one bad game, one so-so, one good, and one awesome game. This still looks a lot like last year to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 I love those arguments. "If you take away this run then..." Hate to break it to you but all of those yards are going to be attributed to Turner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Oh, sorry. I forgot we should wait a month into the season to look at how an offense looks and who is doing what. You really should. Case in point: Peyton Manning from last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 thru yesterday's games Turner is avegaing 15.95 ppg which is less then 12 other RBs and 11 other WRs....a main cog in this post was that in PPR he didnt have the value to worth where he was being drafted....and to Josh Gordon out the guys that have missed games and such...there are 17 combined RB/WRs that have played in 4 games with a bye or 5 games that have a greater PPG than Turner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 (edited) thru yesterday's games Turner is avegaing 15.95 ppg which is less then 12 other RBs and 11 other WRs....a main cog in this post was that in PPR he didnt have the value to worth where he was being drafted.... I don't disagree with that. Team Crotch Doc and the Rockets had the #8 pick in the WCOFF draft and we had discussions revolving around letting him drop past us, if he were to make it that far. Edited October 12, 2009 by bushwacked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 I don't disagree with that. Team Crotch Doc and the Rockets had the #8 pick in the WCOFF draft and we had discussions revolving around letting him drop past us, if he were to make it that far. 1st at that team name 2nd: that is the problem with threads like this...many people will look at their leagues scoring when applying it to leagues like this and I was talking 100% about PPR leagues.....still even outside of a PPR I myself would have been cautious about drafting him but it was based on PPR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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