muck Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 I thought it an interesting (and short) read. Salut. ************************* The prevailing wisdom thus far has been that the recovery from this recession will be slow and agonizing – months and perhaps quarters of miserable numbers that only slowly show an improvement. The thinking has been that unemployment will stay at near double digits for another year or more, that growth will be anemic and that there will be a whole series of mini-dips caused by recalcitrant consumers, frightened investors and cautious politicians. Or not. There is another school of thought – one that looks at all the serious economic downturns experienced since and including the Great Depression. This opinion holds that there will be a major and swift recovery that could begin as soon as the end of this year or early next. The truth of the matter is that nobody really knows what the millions of consumers, investors, workers and business owners will do from one day to the next. There are patterns of behavior that are usually predictable and this is what forecasting is built on but during times of transition, there is a lot of flux and the trends can go in some interesting directions. The behaviors of the past year have been based on fear, caution and trepidation but at some point the bargain hunters and the aggressive executives start to make their move and many people then follow their lead. The factors that have led some to think that this recession will be followed by swift and robust recovery include the fact that many of those bargain hunters are starting to come out of the weeds already and they are in a very bullish mood. They have not seen stock values this low in decades and there are other bargains out there in everything from real estate to businesses for sale. There is a great deal of money lying in wait for this economy. That is the second factor and one that could prove troublesome later but in a different way. The Fed and the government as a whole has endeavored to pour as much liquidity into the system as it can and most of that cash is still on the sidelines – from bank bail out money to the funds from the stimulus plan. When that money starts to flow (and it looks like it is breaking loose) the economy will experience a flood. Analysis: One of the more interesting pieces of data to support this notion of rapid recovery comes from the Economic Cycle Research Institute. This research goes all the way back to the Great Depression and rests on some pretty broad cycle analysis. It is anticipating a rebound that will be stronger than the surge in 1983 as it is seeing many of its sub-indices reach levels not seen in 25 years. The sense from this data is that the pattern that has been seen in every major recession is repeating itself once again. Big drops are followed by big gains, provided the economy retains its fundamental drive. The recession has not turned the average consumer into a hermit and there remain investors and business people that want to make a buck. That is generally what propels an economy out of the doldrums. There are still many potholes in the way but there is at least some reason to take an optimistic position from time to time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cre8tiff Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 Holy Optimism, Batman! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 I hope that guy is right, though with out knowing how much of a tax hit we are going to get from the stimulus package, cap and trade if it passes, and health care reform if it passes, would make me be very cautious. It is just hard to plan for a future with so much pending legislation that could drastically affect business owners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 I hope that guy is right, though with out knowing how much of a tax hit we are going to get from the stimulus package, cap and trade if it passes, and health care reform if it passes, would make me be very cautious. It is just hard to plan for a future with so much pending legislation that could drastically affect business owners. It's hard to predict the economy, but it wasn't hard to see this post coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westvirginia Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 I don't think this is happening for 2 reasons - one of which Perch stated above. My other would be the consumer end - I think credit will be much harder to come buy for "bling" items. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 It's hard to predict the economy, but it wasn't hard to see this post coming. What part of the post do you take exception to? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 What part of the post do you take exception to? You have to take every post about the economy, good, bad or otherwise and throw in your chicken little the sky is falling routine. I'm just saying, OK we get it. You are skeered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 You have to take every post about the economy, good, bad or otherwise and throw in your chicken little the sky is falling routine. I'm just saying, OK we get it. You are skeered. So in other words, you can't take exception to what I've posted, you are merely trying to deflect once again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 Do you REALLY think anything that passes Congress is going to DRASTICALLY affect your business planning model? REALLY? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbpfan1231 Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 (edited) It's hard to predict the economy, but it wasn't hard to see this post coming. So you don't think that the outcome of cap and trade or health care reform has any effect on the economy?? What part of what he said was wrong??? Edited September 21, 2009 by gbpfan1231 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted September 21, 2009 Author Share Posted September 21, 2009 (edited) Do you REALLY think anything that Congress may pass may DRASTICALLY affect your business planning model? REALLY? ...edited...and... I do think that Congresses actions could have a HUGE impact on my business. Absolutley ginormous. Edited September 21, 2009 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbpfan1231 Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 Do you REALLY think anything that passes Congress is going to DRASTICALLY affect your business planning model? REALLY? Of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 ...edited...and... I do think that Congresses actions could have a HUGE impact on my business. Absolutley ginormous. Yeah, but you're not in construction. You're one of those Bernie Madoff types. :irishwink: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 ...edited...and... I do think that Congresses actions could have a HUGE impact on my business. Absolutley ginormous. On that basis, given that Congress can do pretty much anything at any time, when will you ever make a decision on anything? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 On that basis, given that Congress can do pretty much anything at any time, when will you ever make a decision on anything? When was the last time that Congress was seriously considering bills that will have as much financial impact whether it be through new regulation or taxes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westvirginia Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 On that basis, given that Congress can do pretty much anything at any time, when will you ever make a decision on anything? Ursa, you know better than this. There is possible, and there is likely. The obamessiah might crown himself king BHO (Bachman Hussien Overdrive) I, bringing a new mooslim rule of non-citizens to the US, but it's not likely. And right now HC and cap & tax are very much up in the air - certainly more within the realm of possibility than ever before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted September 21, 2009 Author Share Posted September 21, 2009 (edited) On that basis, given that Congress can do pretty much anything at any time, when will you ever make a decision on anything? Some decisions are easy. Some are not. So, for the ones that are not easy to make, I will make them when forced to. Certain deadlines are immovable. In all situations, I will make a decision and hope for the best ... and if I don't get the best, hope to have a way through. Edited September 21, 2009 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cunning Runt Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 You have to take every post about the economy, good, bad or otherwise and throw in your chicken little the sky is falling routine. I'm just saying, OK we get it. You are skeered. +1000000000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.