dmarc117 Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 (edited) Nothing that's occurred in the past six months has changed Schiff's view that America's economy is headed for disaster. In fact, he's even more convinced a true "currency crisis" awaits, and that China will soon stop enabling our reckless borrowing, the basis our "phony" economy. The coming collapse of the dollar and bursting of the Treasury bubble will have devastating consequences for ordinary Americans, and any investors based in dollars, he says. The economy today is "worse [because] we are much more deeply indebted than in March," Schiff declares. "We've dug ourselves a deeper hole." Faber Says U.S. Government May Fail in 5 to 10 Years (granted these guys are super-bears) what say you? Edited September 24, 2009 by dmarc117 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 China will soon stop enabling our reckless borrowing how are they going to do that while still maintaining the trade surplus that is the driving force of their economy somebody explain that one to me and then I will consider being scared Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 how are they going to do that while still maintaining the trade surplus that is the driving force of their economy somebody explain that one to me and then I will consider being scared You're right but surely the status quo of massive trade imbalance financed with imaginary dollars can't go on ad infinitum? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 (granted these guys are super-bears) what say you? I'd also say that I trust the reasons behind their predictions as much as I trust somebody who owns a ton of stock in a company and then proclaims that this company's stock is going to explode in value over the next few years. Perhaps they are right or perhaps they are just looking to trick gullible fools so that they can make a quick buck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 what say you? gullible fools Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cliaz Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 G-20 to supplant G-8 Weigie, what does this mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 G-20 to supplant G-8 Weigie, what does this mean? Nothing to worry about... the G-20 is pretty much exactly the same thing as the G-8 once you adjust for inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 G-20 to supplant G-8 Weigie, what does this mean? ok, for a more serious answer. It's mostly just a recognition that some other countries are growing in economic importance and probably should be allowed to sit at the big-boys table. (I don't think it will matter all that much, but it will possibly help to mitigate the possibility of China negotiating a bunch of economic relationships with other countries on its own. The potential downside is that having too many countries in the mix could slow down or thwart basic negotiations as everybody wants to get their two cents in.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 ok, for a more serious answer. It's mostly just a recognition that some other countries are growing in economic importance and probably should be allowed to sit at the big-boys table. (I don't think it will matter all that much, but it will possibly help to mitigate the possibility of China negotiating a bunch of economic relationships with other countries on its own. The potential downside is that having too many countries in the mix could slow down or thwart basic negotiations as everybody wants to get their two cents in.) Or their own currency equivalent? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 the media has painted Schiff as a "gloom and doom" kind of guy....and they always say he's "so negative" etc etc......they let you know this right before he gets a chance to talk to try and get people to not listen to him as if what he says is a worst case type of scenario.... but he's pretty much batted 1.000 on what he says......it's not a matter of if, it's "when will it happen?"..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 ok, for a more serious answer. It's mostly just a recognition that some other countries are growing in economic importance and probably should be allowed to sit at the big-boys table. (I don't think it will matter all that much, but it will possibly help to mitigate the possibility of China negotiating a bunch of economic relationships with other countries on its own. The potential downside is that having too many countries in the mix could slow down or thwart basic negotiations as everybody wants to get their two cents in.) are some growing or are some of us losing ground.......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 but he's pretty much batted 1.000 on what he says...... which explains why his investors lost money last year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 another guy came out yesterday with this........ The US is too dependent on Japan and China buying up the country's debt and could face severe economic problems if that stops, Tiger Management founder and chairman Julian Robertson told CNBC. "It's almost Armageddon if the Japanese and Chinese don't buy our debt,” Robertson said in an interview. "I don't know where we could get the money. I think we've let ourselves get in a terrible situation and I think we ought to try and get out of it." Robertson said inflation is a big risk if foreign countries were to stop buying bonds. “If the Chinese and Japanese stop buying our bonds, we could easily see [inflation] go to 15 to 20 percent,” he said. “It's not a question of the economy. It's a question of who will lend us the money if they don't. Imagine us getting ourselves in a situation where we're totally dependent on those two countries. It's crazy.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtomicCEO Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 "Imagine us getting ourselves in a situation where we're totally dependent on those two countries. It's crazy.” China is also dependent on us. Without the US buying and selling their products, the Chinese manufacturing economy would collapse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 "Imagine us getting ourselves in a situation where we're totally dependent on those two countries. It's crazy.” China is also dependent on us. Without the US buying and selling their products, the Chinese manufacturing economy would collapse. my thoughts too. where else are they going to put there money. even tho we suck right now, we are the most stable place on the planet still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 another guy came out yesterday with this........ That's all fine and dandy but I'll bet money this guy would be one of the first to bleat if taxes go up to pay down debt. He won't be first though, that'll be Perch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evil_gop_liars Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 That's all fine and dandy but I'll bet money this guy would be one of the first to bleat if taxes go up to pay down debt. He won't be first though, that'll be Perch. Have to agree here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 a view from the other side...... Greg Ip, U.S. economics editor for The Economist, isn't nearly as sanguine as Fisher about America's rising deficit: More government debt crowds out the private sector's ability to borrow and ultimately results in higher interest rates -- slowing down the overall economy. However, Ip doesn't expect a debt shock for America, as seen in East Asia during the late 1990s, and says America's massive deficit isn't as bad as the bears like Peter Schiff and Marc Faber fear -- especially relative to the rest of the world. America's public debt is roughly $6.7 trillion, which is a big number. Put in more meaningful terms, U.S. public debt as a percentage of GDP (or compared to the size of the economy it must support) is 48%. (Click here for a terrific, interactive map on global public debt trends and forecasts.) Seems high, no? Depends on the context. In the United Kingdom, debt as a percentage of GDP is 64%, with Italy at 113% and Japan at a whopping 185%, according to The Economist. Other advanced countries are tracking toward 90-to-100 percent debt-to-GDP. "That is a very worrisome trend" for the G8 economies, Ip says. As for America, Ip envisions a "termites in the attic" scenario, with gradually more American taxpayer money devoted to paying off our national debt -- and the interest on that debt. As time goes by, Ip says more and more Americans are going to ask: "What's in it for me?," and start demanding politicians actually lay out plans to reduce, rather than expand, the debt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted September 26, 2009 Share Posted September 26, 2009 which explains why his investors lost money last year I'm not talking about investing tips... I'm talking about our economy and why things will get worse...not about tips on which gold and silver ETF's to buy into.... you're targeting one area which has no affect on our economy... when he explains why our economy is screwed, he hits it on the head... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted September 26, 2009 Share Posted September 26, 2009 "Imagine us getting ourselves in a situation where we're totally dependent on those two countries. It's crazy.” China is also dependent on us. Without the US buying and selling their products, the Chinese manufacturing economy would collapse. they could just sell these products to themselves.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtomicCEO Posted September 26, 2009 Share Posted September 26, 2009 they could just sell these products to themselves.... They have higher standards than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 They have higher standards than that. I think our actions are forcing their hand a little bit.... China is going to have to be a self sustaining economy in the future and possibly work with their neighbors in India since they are on the upswing... it's not like we're the only game in town, we are just the one that has worked for them in the past and now they are in a position to where they are so heavily invested in us that their decision making is slanted.... ...but even that has a limit... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 I'm not talking about investing tips... I'm talking about our economy and why things will get worse...not about tips on which gold and silver ETF's to buy into.... you're targeting one area which has no affect on our economy... when he explains why our economy is screwed, he hits it on the head... no, I am saying that if somebody claims to know exactly what is going on with our economy, then they ought to be able to make money off of that knowledge (ESPECIALLY if it is your job to do so) The fact that he didn't make money reveals that he really doesn't know as much about the economy as people claim that he does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 no, I am saying that if somebody claims to know exactly what is going on with our economy, then they ought to be able to make money off of that knowledge (ESPECIALLY if it is your job to do so) The fact that he didn't make money reveals that he really doesn't know as much about the economy as people claim that he does. I completely disagree....because he has broken down how poor the fundamentals are for the housing maket, stocks and the dollar....that doesn't have to translate into someone who knows what to invest in.... just because he has an easy time pointing out the problem, doesn't mean he can exploit it for his own financial gain.... and who is to say he hasn't made money off it anyways?.....I just know that Euro Pacific (I'm pretty sure he's the President or CEO of Euro pacific) hasn't yielded the best results for their clients in the past year... but I can't see how that supports what you are trying to say... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 I completely disagree....because he has broken down how poor the fundamentals are for the housing maket, stocks and the dollar....that doesn't have to translate into someone who knows what to invest in.... just because he has an easy time pointing out the problem, doesn't mean he can exploit it for his own financial gain.... and who is to say he hasn't made money off it anyways?.....I just know that Euro Pacific (I'm pretty sure he's the President or CEO of Euro pacific) hasn't yielded the best results for their clients in the past year... but I can't see how that supports what you are trying to say... then the best conclusion has to be that Schiff is a fraud who steals money from his clients by telling them that he knows how to invest their money when he really doesn't Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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