kroyrunner89 Posted October 14, 2009 Share Posted October 14, 2009 Week 6 Lines: Chiefs +6 @ Redskins 37.5 Texans +4.5 @ Bengals 45 Browns +14 @ Steelers 38 Ravens +2.5 @ Vikings 43.5 Rams +10 @ Jaguars 42 Giants +3 @ Saints 47.5 Panthers -3 @ Bucs 39.5 Lions +13 @ Packers 48 Eagles -14 @ Raiders 40.5 Cardinals +2.5 @ Seahawks 47 Bills +9.5 @ Jets 38 Titans +9 @ Patriots 43.5 Bears +3 @ Falcons 46 Broncos +3.5 @ Chargers 44 Good luck as usual guys! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted October 14, 2009 Share Posted October 14, 2009 Well I had a great week 5 - going 5-0 on posted plays bringing my YTD to 11-4 on posted plays. I also had 3 other winners that were not posted and even with an 8-0 week I still cant get the bad taste out of my mouth over the terrible read in week 4 on the Cincy / Browns game. I truly believed that Cincy laying 5-1/2 to the Browns was free money. Well if I only learned one thing from week 4, that is I will not be touching either of those teams for the rest of the year. Seeing the results of both there games in week 5 only supported my view even more. Cincy has the talent too beat any of the top teams on any week but they also can loose to the worst teams. The Browns ,,, what can I say about them ?? Did you see their game last week ? Oh well on to week 6 - I have 4 overs I'm on Falcons / Bears over 46 Giants / Saint over 47.5 Vikings / Ravens over 43.5 AZ / Seattle over 46 http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/offshore/?s=513 One more thing I would like to add is that this thread has really lost steam this year ?? Don't know the exact figures but I would say that we are averaging less than half the post per week this year, that we were getting last year. At the rate it is slowing down I wouldn't be surprised if it fizzle out completely. I have really enjoyed the input from others the last several years. I hope it continues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firstandgoal Posted October 14, 2009 Share Posted October 14, 2009 The Eagles should easily beatdown the Raiders +14. The Giants referred to them as a scrimage game last week and easily could have ran up the score more. Could this be a trap game? I don't think so... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 The Eagles should easily beatdown the Raiders +14. The Giants referred to them as a scrimage game last week and easily could have ran up the score more. Could this be a trap game? I don't think so... True and that is why I'm concerned fantasy football wise for the Eagles skill players. There is a very good chance that the Eagles put this game away by half time and rest their starters in the 2nd half ? Their next three games are all divisional games starting with the Skins on Monday night in Washington. Then they come home to play the Giants followed by Dallas. I'm not going to sit McNabb because he could easily put up 3 TD's in the 1st. half but then if the Raiders don't have any points on the board we may be seeing Vick in the second half ? Why chance McNabb re-injuring his ribs or worse ? The same goes for Westy. Yes the Eagles like a gift but I'm gonna hope the game stays within reach ( 17 pts or less ) so McNabb and Westy stay in the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 I like the Ravens +2.5. I just can't see them losing 3 in a row. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kroyrunner89 Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Hey guys, putting out plays early this week due to heading out of town and not having computer access. I was a bit worried about this originally, but I'm actually feeling pretty good about the plays I've settled on this week. Hopefully we can put an ugly Week 5 behind us and get our momentum moving forward again. Here's what I'm liking this week: * Green Bay Packers -13 It's kind of rare that I go for the double digit spreads, however this is one that jumps out at me as a good investment opportunity. We've got the Packers coming fresh off of a bye, going against a Lions team that will likely be without Stafford or Calvin Johnson. I know that protection issues have hampered Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense all season, but it's looking like Chad Clifton will be returning to their line this week and that will definitely help them out. The Green Bay offense is 6th in the league at turning their yards into points, and I expect that the deck is stacked in their favor to gain plenty of yards and put up plenty of points this coming week. * Chiefs/Redskins UNDER 37.5 Neither of these teams offenses are good, and both have respectable defenses. The Redskins are 4th worst in the league at turning their yards into points, and although the Chiefs are middle of the pack in this category, they're 2nd worst at gaining passing yards and 6th worst at gaining rushing yards. Their offense simply cannot move the ball. With a slightly above average Redskins' defense, I'm willing to overlook the weaker KC defense and assume the Redskins won't top 20 points, which should be enough to win them the game. In my opinion, this is a very solid looking under. * Seahawks -3 It's kind of rough trying to find stats in this matchup since the Seahawks have only played two games with Hasselbeck, but their offense is so much more potent with him in the lineup it's unbelievable. Arizona is still not playing too well, struggling to run the ball and turn their yards into points. Not to mention that they have the worst passing defense in the NFL still after their showdown with the Texans last weekend, something that Hasselbeck should be more than capable of exploiting. One aspect of the Seattle game that hasn't been affected by Hasselbeck's absence is their defense, which is 4th best in the league at preventing opponents from turning yardage into points. I think Seattle wins this week, taking the game by at least a touchdown. That's it for this week guys, good luck with your plays! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CowboysDiehard Posted October 16, 2009 Share Posted October 16, 2009 Hey Drunk....I'll try to be a little more active from here on out. I know I said I was done last week, but I found a ray of light and two wins already this week in CFB have put me back on the map. I still have some work to do, but I'm building steam! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted October 18, 2009 Share Posted October 18, 2009 Is there anyway that Philly does'nt beat Oakland by at least 20? Seriously? Anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firstandgoal Posted October 18, 2009 Share Posted October 18, 2009 I'm going LARGE on Philly today. The weather is perfect here in Oakland. As a homer in the Bay Area I know the Raiders are a pathetic team that have no motivation ta play hard this weekend. This should be a scrimmage game for the Eagles. (42+ - 6) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Do Work Son Posted October 18, 2009 Share Posted October 18, 2009 GB/DET Over 48 1/2 Greenbay is fresh off a bye and detroit is in town...Wont be surprised to see a final score of 34-20 in favor of the pack.. Wash/KC Under 36 Both offenses are horrid...Cant see it going over 36 with rain and wind thrown in the mix as well.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted October 18, 2009 Share Posted October 18, 2009 I don't see much this week, but I am taking the Steelers to win by more than 14, and a few teasers. My plays for today (mostly early games): Parlay (5 Teams) Steelers(Pittsburgh) -950 Eagles(Philadelphia) -900 Packers(GreenBay) -950 Jaguars(Jacksonville) -440 Patriots(NewEngland) -440 7 Point Teaser (2 Teams) Giants(NewYork) +10 Jaguars(Jacksonville) -2.5 6.5 Point Teaser (2 Teams) Vikings(Minnesota) +3.5 BAL/MIN Over 39 7 Point Teaser (2 Teams) Bengals(Cincinnati) +3.5 HOU/CIN Over 39.5 6 Point Teaser (2 Teams) Redskins(Washington) -0.5 KC/WAS Under 42 Steelers(Pittsburgh) -14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tally Posted October 18, 2009 Share Posted October 18, 2009 (edited) I read this thread religiously. I will also try and be more active with posting on it moving forward. I am 13-10 on the season for my NFL wagering, I was doing fairly well until last weeks 3-5 debacle. Anyway, my picks this week are NYG- ML BAL- ML PHIL- -14 GB- - 14 KC/WAS- Under 36.5 Also, I am in a local NFL last man standing contest thru station casinos here in Vegas. It started with approx 7,000 entries and is now down to 147 that are left (the prize is 80K) I personally have 1 entry left (I started with 5) My pick this week is GB-13.5. I was deciding all week between that game and the Philly game but ultimately choose GB due to Calvin Johnson not playing and the 2 weeks GB had to prepare. Good luck everyone! Edited October 18, 2009 by Tally Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted October 18, 2009 Share Posted October 18, 2009 A couple more teasers late: 6.5 Point Teaser (3 Teams) Seahawks(Seattle) +3.5 ARI/SEA Over 39.5 Patriots(NewEngland) -2.5 7 Point Teaser (2 Teams) Jets(NewYork) -2.5 Eagles(Philadelphia) -7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kroyrunner89 Posted October 19, 2009 Author Share Posted October 19, 2009 (edited) Decent Sunday, getting back on the winning side of things with a 2-1 day. I'm a bit disappointed in the day though as I left three other winners on the shelf, you can see here on the card I put together for one of my contests. I'd like to think had I had my normal preparation I would have let these plays through and shared a couple more with you guys. I will rarely be leaving town with no internet access though, so this shouldn't be a problem that pops up often. I've spent the last day reviewing the play I'm going to release tonight, and I've decided it's worthy of being a late addition. If this play were to lose a winning week would turn into one where we lose a little juice, but as disappointing as that would be I can't ignore this opportunity and I'm going to go for it. Here's what I like for tonight: * Broncos/Chargers UNDER 44 This is a pretty straight forward pick, as the Broncos' defense has been spectacular so far at shutting down potent offenses. They currently sit at 4th best in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed, and 6th best in yards per rush attempt allowed (especially sweet against this SD rushing attack, which is worst in the league). San Diego will likely be trying to move the ball through the air the majority of this game, which they will learn is a challenge much like Brady and Romo have in the previous two weeks. Even if the Chargers are able to rack up some yards, the Broncos still are by far the best in the league at scoring efficiency defense. The Chargers will have trouble converting any yards they gain into touchdowns. On Denvers' side of the ball, they've been doing a great job of generating yards, but they're 8th worst in the league at turning those yards into points. I acknowledge that San Diego is also 8th worst in this category on defense, however I think coming off of the bye week slightly more healthy their defense will be looking a bit better than it has so far this season. I think this game will have it's fair share of mistakes and points left on the field, so the under is the obvious play in my mind. Good luck to anyone who bets on tonight's game! Edited October 19, 2009 by kroyrunner89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted October 19, 2009 Share Posted October 19, 2009 Kroy - I'm on the same wager but was able to get it this morning @ under 45 from Betjamaica.com FYI - I just checked and it's still sitting at 45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKIDKOKID Posted October 19, 2009 Share Posted October 19, 2009 Okay time some folks to eat some crow especially in regards to the Pitts/Clev and Oak/Philly games. I know both cost me money and the Philly debacle knocked me out of 3 surivor contests. KO'd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted October 19, 2009 Share Posted October 19, 2009 Okay time some folks to eat some crow especially in regards to the Pitts/Clev and Oak/Philly games. I know both cost me money and the Philly debacle knocked me out of 3 surivor contests. KO'd and who would you like to eat crow ?? My plays are always posted and after a crappy 2-2 day yesterday i'm at 13 -6 for posted plays Wait ,, now looking back ,, where is your input and posted plays ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CowboysDiehard Posted October 19, 2009 Share Posted October 19, 2009 Guys, I'm making a small play on SD tonight at -3.5. SD are getting a lot of players back this week, and Denver hasn't played well lately out there. Here's the scoop. Considering the under as well...we'll see. I don't want too many irons in the fire tonight, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted October 19, 2009 Share Posted October 19, 2009 Guys, I'm making a small play on SD tonight at -3.5. SD are getting a lot of players back this week, and Denver hasn't played well lately out there. Here's the scoop. Considering the under as well...we'll see. I don't want too many irons in the fire tonight, though. Right on ,, now that's the kind of input we are looking for Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted October 19, 2009 Share Posted October 19, 2009 Here is some more info - sorry for cluttering up the boards with this but I will throw these out there Denver most recently: When playing in October are 5-5 When playing on grass are 6-4 After outgaining opponent are 7-3 When playing within the division are 5-5San Diego most recently: When playing in October are 5-5 When playing on grass are 7-3 After being outgained are 3-7 When playing within the division are 9-1 A few trends to consider:The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road San Diego is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home Top 3 / Bottom 3 Trends Denver Denver is the toughest team to score on in the league, allowing just 8.6 per game. San Diego San Diego has the worst running game in league with just 53.8 yards per game. San Diego has the third-rated passing attack in the league at 295.5 yards per game. Handicapping Trends Denver Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games on the road Denver is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Diego Denver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Diego The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing San Diego Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego San Diego San Diego is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games San Diego is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games at home San Diego is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Denver San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver Betting Situations Denver most recently... Denver After a win are 6-4 Denver After playing New England are 4-6 Denver Before playing Baltimore are 7-3 Denver When playing within the division are 5-5 Denver After outgaining opponent are 7-3 Denver When playing on grass are 6-4 Denver When playing in October are 5-5 San Diego most recently... San Diego After a loss are 6-4 San Diego After playing Pittsburgh are 4-6 San Diego Before playing Kansas City are 6-4 San Diego When playing within the division are 9-1 San Diego After being outgained are 3-7 San Diego When playing on grass are 7-3 San Diego When playing in October are 5-5 Head To Head Matchup Summary Team SU ATS O/U PTS RYDS YPR PA PC% PYDS TOTY TO Denver 4-6 1-5-4 4-5-1 19.60 108.50 4.39 36.00 58.33 221.90 330.40 1.80 San Diego 6-4 5-1-4 4-5-1 29.40 137.50 4.45 26.40 62.50 202.20 339.70 1.20 Date Day Away Pts. Home Pts. Home Line ATSr RY PY TY TO RY PY TY TO 12/28/2008 Sun DEN 21 SD 52 -7.0/50.5 SD/O 90 316 406 2 289 202 491 0 09/14/2008 Sun SD 38 DEN 39 -1.0/46.5 Push/O 80 376 456 1 145 341 486 1 12/24/2007 Mon DEN 3 SD 23 -9.5/47.0 SD/U 92 133 225 3 147 187 334 1 10/07/2007 Sun SD 41 DEN 3 1.5/44.0 SD/P 214 270 484 0 72 224 296 3 12/10/2006 Sun DEN 20 SD 48 -7.5/41.0 SD/O 162 166 328 1 143 276 419 1 11/19/2006 Sun SD 35 DEN 27 -2.5/42.5 SD/O 125 217 342 2 158 168 326 1 12/31/2005 Sat DEN 23 SD 7 -11.5/43.5 DEN/U 157 84 241 0 91 145 236 2 09/18/2005 Sun SD 17 DEN 20 -3.0/46.0 Push/U 79 134 213 2 98 233 331 2 12/05/2004 Sun DEN 17 SD 20 -3.0/46.5 Push/U 74 263 337 4 122 86 208 2 09/26/2004 Sun SD 13 DEN 23 -10.0/46.0 Push/U 85 129 214 1 37 291 328 1 Offense VS Defense Supergrid Denver Offense Denver Defense San Diego Offense San Diego Defense Denver Offense Away Denver Defense Home San Diego Offense Away San Diego Defense Home Total Score 19.80 25.50 25.25 8.60 17.50 22.00 24.50 5.00 First Quarter Scoring 3.40 7.00 2.50 5.20 5.00 3.50 5.00 0 Second Quarter Scoring 4.60 6.75 4.75 2.00 3.00 8.50 4.50 1.50 Third Quarter Scoring 3.20 4.25 5.25 0 5.00 5.00 7.00 0 Fourth Quarter Scoring 8.60 7.50 12.75 1.40 4.50 5.00 8.00 3.50 Fumbles 1.40 1.75 1.25 2.00 1.00 1.50 1.00 2.00 Fumbles Lost 0.80 0.75 0.75 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Total Turnovers 1.00 1.75 1.50 2.20 0.50 1.50 1.50 2.50 Team Last 10 Games Denver Game Results Date Day Opponent Points SU Home Line ATS ORY OPY OTY DRY DPY TDY TO +/- 10/11/2009 Sun New England 20-17 W 3.0/41.5 W/U 103 321 424 96 209 305 -1 10/04/2009 Sun Dallas 17-10 W 1.5/43.5 W/U 116 221 337 74 241 315 1 09/27/2009 Sun at Oakland 23-3 W 2.5/38.0 W/U 215 157 372 95 42 137 2 09/20/2009 Sun Cleveland 27-6 W -3.0/38.5 W/U 186 263 449 54 146 200 2 09/13/2009 Sun at Cincinnati 12-7 W -5.0/41.0 W/U 75 227 302 86 221 307 2 09/03/2009 Thu Arizona 19-0 W 3.0/36.0 W/U 115 199 314 68 176 244 3 08/30/2009 Sun Chicago 17-27 L -1.5/39.5 L/O 93 204 297 114 243 357 -2 08/22/2009 Sat at Seattle 13-27 L -3.0/37.5 L/O 81 201 282 72 176 248 -3 08/14/2009 Fri at San Francisco 16-17 L -1.5/34.5 W/U 110 231 341 136 142 278 -3 12/28/2008 Sun at San Diego 21-52 L -7.0/50.5 L/O 90 316 406 289 202 491 -2 Team Next 5 Games 11/01/2009 Sun at Baltimore 11/09/2009 Mon Pittsburgh 11/15/2009 Sun at Washington 11/22/2009 Sun San Diego 11/26/2009 Thu NY Giants Team Last 10 Games San Diego Game Results Date Day Opponent Points SU Home Line ATS ORY OPY OTY DRY DPY TDY TO +/- 10/04/2009 Sun at Pittsburgh 28-38 L -5.5/42.5 L/O 16 235 251 177 320 497 0 09/27/2009 Sun Miami 23-13 W -5.5/45.5 W/U 69 286 355 149 140 289 1 09/20/2009 Sun Baltimore 26-31 L -1.0/41.0 L/O 53 421 474 130 181 311 -1 09/14/2009 Mon at Oakland 24-20 W 10.0/43.0 L/O 77 240 317 148 218 366 1 09/04/2009 Fri San Francisco 26-7 W -3.5/37.0 W/U 161 185 346 60 128 188 0 08/29/2009 Sat at Atlanta 24-27 L -3.0/42.5 T/O 118 320 438 88 271 359 0 08/22/2009 Sat at Arizona 17-6 W -3.0/40.5 W/U 125 200 325 64 230 294 2 08/15/2009 Sat Seattle 14-20 L -3.5/37.0 L/U 55 329 384 92 158 250 -2 01/11/2009 Sun at Pittsburgh 24-35 L -6.0/37.5 L/O 15 275 290 165 177 342 -2 01/03/2009 Sat Indianapolis 23-17 W 2.5/50.0 W/U 167 190 357 64 302 366 -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted October 19, 2009 Share Posted October 19, 2009 Normally I would of cleaned up the prior post ,, but i'm at work and should be doing work related stuff So I just had to make the post and get back to what I'm supposed to be doing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted October 19, 2009 Share Posted October 19, 2009 Rough day yesterday... Philly lost and ruined my five-team money line parlay, and Pittsburgh failed to cover. What's really killing me is the teasers, particularly the ones combining multiple games. Last year, I was able to come out on the positive side, overall, at the end of the year, on teasers. This year, not so good, so far. The one I did win yesterday was Minnesota and the Over... I'm having better luck with teasers in which I pick a side and the Over/Under in the same game. Sticking with that same logic tonight, as I think it will be a defensive battle... I think SD will win, but Denver will be able to keep it close. Ironically, in the fantasy matchups that have yet to be decided, I need a high-scoring game, as I have Gates, Sproles, and Marshall against the Denver D and Kaeding. 7-pt teaser: DEN +10.5 UNDER 52 Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CowboysDiehard Posted October 20, 2009 Share Posted October 20, 2009 Good luck on the teaser. I decided not to be the under after all (I could have gotten 46). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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