jackets77 Posted August 11, 2010 Share Posted August 11, 2010 I've got the 5th pick in a 12 team ppr league and just can't seem to decide on Gore or AJ. I'm almost certain the 1st 4 picks will be CJ, AP, MJD, Rice in some order.....In my years playing fantasy football, I've never drafted a wr this early in the 1st round...I'm pretty sure there will be 3 QB's taken before I pick again the 2nd...just the way our league tends to go with giving QBs 6 pts for TDs. Any suggestions? I'm thinking if I get Gore, than maybe I'll have Grant or Jamaal Charles in the 2nd round. If I take AJ, than I'll probably have one of those 2 as my 1st rb in the 2nd round. I've even done a mock where I've taken AJ and the Roddy White or Reggie Wayne in the 2nd round and gone wr/wr, but that makes my rb position too weak. Any thoughts? I believe this is the toughest 1st pick I've had to make in a draft for years...I've always drafted very late in the 1st or very early...pretty confused right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Skins Posted August 11, 2010 Share Posted August 11, 2010 Seem to be lots of posts on this topic... I am in the same boat for two leagues. I like the idea of going WR-WR-QB, then loading up on 4-5 RB's in a row, hoping two will "hit." AJ is my favorite player, too, and have had him for two years prior to this... but... I can't ignore Gore's potential to be a top-3 back this year, so I will probably roll with him at #5 if he is there. If you believe in Gore at all, I think you have to take him #5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilm Posted August 11, 2010 Share Posted August 11, 2010 If QB's get 6pts for TD passes Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers are my pick....I'd almost argue a qb over anyone but CJ in that format... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 11, 2010 Share Posted August 11, 2010 If QB's get 6pts for TD passes Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers are my pick....I'd almost argue a qb over anyone but CJ in that format... Please explain how, assuming the rest of the scoring is fairly standard (1 per 25 passing, 1 per 10 rush/rec/, PPR and 6 pt TDs), this has any major affect on QB values? If it were 4 pts per passing TD, how early would you take a QB? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackets77 Posted August 11, 2010 Author Share Posted August 11, 2010 Taking a QB in the 1st isn't really an option. With the scoring being at 6pt td's for QBs, it makes ppl draft QBs early...where infact, I don't think it affects the QB value much...the rest of the league is basically standard scoring...(1 per 25 passing, 1 per 10 rush/rec/, PPR and 6 pt TDs)... I really think Gore has a potential to be a top 3 back, but his past injuries and lack of red zone attempts last year are pushing me towards AJ....what do you guys think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted August 11, 2010 Share Posted August 11, 2010 If QB's get 6pts for TD passes Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers are my pick....I'd almost argue a qb over anyone but CJ in that format... Totally disagree with this. You still only start 1, right? All QB's get 6 pts per passing TD, so I would still target someone after the top 5 or 6 go. Maybe Cutler? I would probably go with Gore. As much as I love AJ, the amount of sure fire RB's that get the majority of carries is dwendling by the year. Gore is poised for a big year. I would take Gore and then take a WR in the 2nd. I would look to get my RB #2 in the 3rd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilm Posted August 11, 2010 Share Posted August 11, 2010 Please explain how, assuming the rest of the scoring is fairly standard (1 per 25 passing, 1 per 10 rush/rec/, PPR and 6 pt TDs), this has any major affect on QB values? If it were 4 pts per passing TD, how early would you take a QB? I play in a couple leagues very similar to your scoring. 1 takes off for INT's and one does not(below was -2 for int but gave a 6 pt bonus for 300 yds passing, 100 yds rushing & 125 yds receiving). Take a look at the stats from last year. This is the top QB, WR, RB list. Obviously, the top qb's scored quite a bit more than WR's at the end. I'm not saying AJ isn't a stud but in that 6 pt per TD pass format qb's are gold. Rodgers, Aaron QB GB 541 350 4434 30 7 103.2 59 304 5.2 5 0 0 0 0.0 0 4 436.0 Brees, Drew QB NO 514 363 4388 34 11 109.6 22 33 1.5 2 1 1 -4 -4.0 0 6 395.0 Schaub, Matt QB HOU 583 396 4770 29 15 98.6 47 61 1.3 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 2 392.0 Favre, Brett QB MIN 531 363 4202 33 7 107.2 9 7 0.8 0 1 1 -2 -2.0 0 2 381.0 Manning, Peyton QB IND 571 393 4500 33 16 99.9 19 -13 -0.7 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 379.0 Romo, Tony QB DAL 550 347 4483 26 9 97.6 35 105 3.0 1 0 0 0 0.0 0 4 361.0 Rivers, Philip QB SD 486 317 4254 28 9 104.4 26 50 1.9 1 0 0 0 0.0 0 3 355.0 Brady, Tom QB NE 565 371 4398 28 13 96.2 29 44 1.5 1 0 0 0 0.0 0 2 348.0 Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT 506 337 4328 26 12 100.5 41 79 1.9 2 0 0 0 0.0 0 3 343.0 Manning, Eli QB NYG 509 317 4021 27 14 93.1 17 65 3.8 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 8 316.0 Player Team Att Cmp Yd TD Int Rate Att Yd Avg TD Targt Recpt Yd Avg TD FL FPTS Johnson, Andre WR HOU 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 2 10 5.0 0 172 101 1569 15.5 9 0 307.0 Moss, Randy WR NE 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 137 83 1264 15.2 13 1 283.0 Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 153 97 1092 11.3 13 0 277.0 Wayne, Reggie WR IND 1 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 149 100 1264 12.6 10 0 277.0 Welker, Wes WR NE 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 5 36 7.2 0 162 123 1348 11.0 4 0 276.0 Austin, Miles WR DAL 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 2 -2 -1.0 0 125 81 1320 16.3 11 0 272.0 Marshall, Brandon WR MIA 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 7 39 5.6 0 154 101 1120 11.1 10 0 268.0 Smith, Steve WR NYG 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 159 107 1220 11.4 7 0 264.0 Johnson, Chris RB TEN 1 0 0 0 0 39.6 358 2006 5.6 14 71 50 503 10.1 2 3 465.0 Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 315 1389 4.4 18 57 43 436 10.1 0 6 318.0 Rice, Ray RB BAL 1 0 0 0 0 39.6 254 1339 5.3 7 101 78 702 9.0 1 3 315.0 Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 312 1391 4.5 15 71 53 374 7.1 1 1 310.0 Gore, Frank RB SF Beier's Suhr Rats 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 229 1120 4.9 10 75 52 406 7.8 3 2 269.0 Addai, Joseph RB IND 1 1 22 1 0 158.3 219 828 3.8 10 63 51 336 6.6 3 1 239.0 Williams, Ricky RB MIA 1 0 0 0 1 0.0 241 1121 4.7 11 53 35 264 7.5 2 2 236.0 Jackson, Steven RB STL 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 325 1424 4.4 4 74 50 314 6.3 0 2 233.0 Jones, Thomas RB KC 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 332 1402 4.2 14 18 10 58 5.8 0 0 229.0 Charles, Jamaal RB KC 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 190 1120 5.9 7 55 40 297 7.4 1 3 223.0 Grant, Ryan RB GB 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 282 1253 4.4 11 30 25 197 7.9 0 1 221.0 Forte, Matt RB CHI 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 258 929 3.6 4 72 57 471 8.3 0 3 208.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted August 11, 2010 Share Posted August 11, 2010 I play in a couple leagues very similar to your scoring. 1 takes off for INT's and one does not(below was -2 for int but gave a 6 pt bonus for 300 yds passing, 100 yds rushing & 125 yds receiving). Take a look at the stats from last year. This is the top QB, WR, RB list. Obviously, the top qb's scored quite a bit more than WR's at the end. I'm not saying AJ isn't a stud but in that 6 pt per TD pass format qb's are gold. Rodgers, Aaron QB GB 541 350 4434 30 7 103.2 59 304 5.2 5 0 0 0 0.0 0 4 436.0 Brees, Drew QB NO 514 363 4388 34 11 109.6 22 33 1.5 2 1 1 -4 -4.0 0 6 395.0 Schaub, Matt QB HOU 583 396 4770 29 15 98.6 47 61 1.3 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 2 392.0 Favre, Brett QB MIN 531 363 4202 33 7 107.2 9 7 0.8 0 1 1 -2 -2.0 0 2 381.0 Manning, Peyton QB IND 571 393 4500 33 16 99.9 19 -13 -0.7 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 379.0 Romo, Tony QB DAL 550 347 4483 26 9 97.6 35 105 3.0 1 0 0 0 0.0 0 4 361.0 Rivers, Philip QB SD 486 317 4254 28 9 104.4 26 50 1.9 1 0 0 0 0.0 0 3 355.0 Brady, Tom QB NE 565 371 4398 28 13 96.2 29 44 1.5 1 0 0 0 0.0 0 2 348.0 Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT 506 337 4328 26 12 100.5 41 79 1.9 2 0 0 0 0.0 0 3 343.0 Manning, Eli QB NYG 509 317 4021 27 14 93.1 17 65 3.8 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 8 316.0 Player Team Att Cmp Yd TD Int Rate Att Yd Avg TD Targt Recpt Yd Avg TD FL FPTS Johnson, Andre WR HOU 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 2 10 5.0 0 172 101 1569 15.5 9 0 307.0 Moss, Randy WR NE 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 137 83 1264 15.2 13 1 283.0 Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 153 97 1092 11.3 13 0 277.0 Wayne, Reggie WR IND 1 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 149 100 1264 12.6 10 0 277.0 Welker, Wes WR NE 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 5 36 7.2 0 162 123 1348 11.0 4 0 276.0 Austin, Miles WR DAL 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 2 -2 -1.0 0 125 81 1320 16.3 11 0 272.0 Marshall, Brandon WR MIA 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 7 39 5.6 0 154 101 1120 11.1 10 0 268.0 Smith, Steve WR NYG 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 159 107 1220 11.4 7 0 264.0 Johnson, Chris RB TEN 1 0 0 0 0 39.6 358 2006 5.6 14 71 50 503 10.1 2 3 465.0 Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 315 1389 4.4 18 57 43 436 10.1 0 6 318.0 Rice, Ray RB BAL 1 0 0 0 0 39.6 254 1339 5.3 7 101 78 702 9.0 1 3 315.0 Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 312 1391 4.5 15 71 53 374 7.1 1 1 310.0 Gore, Frank RB SF Beier's Suhr Rats 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 229 1120 4.9 10 75 52 406 7.8 3 2 269.0 Addai, Joseph RB IND 1 1 22 1 0 158.3 219 828 3.8 10 63 51 336 6.6 3 1 239.0 Williams, Ricky RB MIA 1 0 0 0 1 0.0 241 1121 4.7 11 53 35 264 7.5 2 2 236.0 Jackson, Steven RB STL 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 325 1424 4.4 4 74 50 314 6.3 0 2 233.0 Jones, Thomas RB KC 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 332 1402 4.2 14 18 10 58 5.8 0 0 229.0 Charles, Jamaal RB KC 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 190 1120 5.9 7 55 40 297 7.4 1 3 223.0 Grant, Ryan RB GB 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 282 1253 4.4 11 30 25 197 7.9 0 1 221.0 Forte, Matt RB CHI 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 258 929 3.6 4 72 57 471 8.3 0 3 208.0 No one is arguing that QB isn't going to be the top point scorers in this format. They would still be the top point scorers with 4 pts. per passing TD. The bottom line is that you only start 1. You start 3 WR's and 2 RB's, but only 1 QB. That means, in theory, that the top 36 WR's will be started and the top 24 RB's. The drop from 1-12 at QB pales in comparison to the drop at RB and WR. The fact that you now get 6 pts for passing TD's doesn't change that. Now if he said that they start 2 QB's that would be a different story all together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 13ers Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 It's all about value at that pick. I would take Johnson and, if a top WR should fall to me in the 2nd round, I would take them too. I don't trust Gore. He's awesome, when he plays, but he's always hurt. I'm still leery about Turner and not sold on the other first round RB's that would be available. More than likely you could take a top tier QB and grab the best RB the next time around. Grant, Moreno and Benson should be there for you. I'd take that: AJohnson WR Manning QB Grant RB That's a nice, consistent core right there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 I play in a couple leagues very similar to your scoring. 1 takes off for INT's and one does not(below was -2 for int but gave a 6 pt bonus for 300 yds passing, 100 yds rushing & 125 yds receiving). Take a look at the stats from last year. This is the top QB, WR, RB list. Obviously, the top qb's scored quite a bit more than WR's at the end. I'm not saying AJ isn't a stud but in that 6 pt per TD pass format qb's are gold. Unfortunately you are misinformed in how to look at value. unless this is a start 1 Qb, 1 RB and 1 WR league, you are making a severe mistake in evaluating value. Stanky covers it in more detail. No one is arguing that QB isn't going to be the top point scorers in this format. They would still be the top point scorers with 4 pts. per passing TD. The bottom line is that you only start 1. You start 3 WR's and 2 RB's, but only 1 QB. That means, in theory, that the top 36 WR's will be started and the top 24 RB's. The drop from 1-12 at QB pales in comparison to the drop at RB and WR. The fact that you now get 6 pts for passing TD's doesn't change that. Now if he said that they start 2 QB's that would be a different story all together. Per your post, the 1-10 Qbs had a spread of 120 points. The 1-10 RBs (and lets ignore the outlier of CJ for this discussion) had a spread of 110 points... but, the majority of leagues require 2 RBs to start, so, unless RBs 11-20 all scored within 10 points of each other, RBs show more value in the top end. WRs, which is no surprise, are all bunched together, with a 40 point spread in your top 8. The 5th pick has been getting a ton of talk lately, I think there have been no less then 3-4 threads in the advice forum dedicated to just this topic. It is also one I am very interested in as my group has the 5th pick in WCOFF this year. At this point in time, I'll stand by what I said in this post in regards to the 4th pick, though the discussion is essentially the same, just replace MJD with Gore. I'd personally lean MJD because I am actually seeing better WRs available in the 2nd and 3rd. The RBs that everyone is hyping as being super deep this year are primarily front ends of RBBCs (Shonn Greene - no catches), unproven rookies (Matthews) and the like, while proven #1 WRs with top 5 potential, like Jennings, Fitzgerald, Marshall etc. are all often available in the mid to late 2nd round. Personally, I would prefer to have an RB with top 5 potential in MJD and one of those WRs with top 5 potential and likely for sure top 10 status then to have a WR with top 5 potential in AJ and an RB that I hope cracks the top 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLGRAF Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 I am picking 5th in my money league, and am PRAYING that one of the people ahead of me goes QB, and one of CJ/AP/MJD/Rice falls to me. I think since we get 6 pts/passing TD, someone in the top-4 may go with Brees. If they don't, then Gore is the most likely pick for me, since we have no PPR. If we had PPR, I would take Andre Johnson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Skins Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 (edited) I would take Johnson and, if a top WR should fall to me in the 2nd round, I would take them too. I don't trust Gore. He's awesome, when he plays, but he's always hurt. I'm still leery about Turner and not sold on the other first round RB's that would be available. Yeah, he has missed a couple of games due to injury, but people get injured. It happens. He doesn't seem to be the kind of guy who's going to get hurt, just b/c he is that kind of guy, if that makes sense. More than likely you could take a top tier QB and grab the best RB the next time around. Grant, Moreno and Benson should be there for you. I'd take that: AJohnson WR Manning QB Grant RB I don't know about anybody else's leagues, but no way willl Grant be available at 3.5 - nor should he. I'd be happy to get him at 2.8... Edited August 12, 2010 by Go Skins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stethant Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 I've struggled with this QB question myself. It's the dropoff at RB, due to RBBC, that ultimately made me decide to abandon the early QB strategy. My league is standard scoring, which makes an early quality RB even more valuable. The 4pts vs 6pts for TDs doesn't change much - it's the dropoff that Big Country and the Capt. point out that's the difference. If faced with the #5 spot, I'm taking Gore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 13ers Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 I would take Johnson and, if a top WR should fall to me in the 2nd round, I would take them too. I don't trust Gore. He's awesome, when he plays, but he's always hurt. I'm still leery about Turner and not sold on the other first round RB's that would be available. Yeah, he has missed a couple of games due to injury, but people get injured. It happens. He doesn't seem to be the kind of guy who's going to get hurt, just b/c he is that kind of guy, if that makes sense. More than likely you could take a top tier QB and grab the best RB the next time around. Grant, Moreno and Benson should be there for you. I'd take that: AJohnson WR Manning QB Grant RB I don't know about anybody else's leagues, but no way willl Grant be available at 3.5 - nor should he. I'd be happy to get him at 2.8... Re: Grant - I was going off of recent mock drafts as far as him being available at 3.5.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 Re: Grant - I was going off of recent mock drafts as far as him being available at 3.5.... Not sure what source you are using, but according to mockdraftcentral, in PPR drafts in the last two weeks (428 qualifying drafts) Ryan Grant has an ADP of 26.3 which is the 3.02 pick. For the 29th pick, which is the 3.05, he was only available in 25% of drafts. For the 20th pick, which is the 2nd round pick, he was available 86% of the time. In other words, to be likely to get Grant from the 5th draft slot, you will have to use your 2nd round pick on him as he is going between those two picks in almost 2/3rds of drafts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lkirc Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 I see Gore as the last of the top tier of RBs in a ppr league. Getting him gives you an advantage over those that pick after you. AJ is great, but he will not outscore the 6th WR by more than Gore will outscore the 6th RB. Take Gore and don't look back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menstrualgravy Posted August 16, 2010 Share Posted August 16, 2010 (edited) I say go with Gore. You will get some good value at WR in later rounds. The depth is greater at WR. Whoever the joker is who wants to go QB 1st round I would love to be in a league with him and his buddies. I did a few mock drafts PPR format and the 3 times I drafted 5 I went Gore, then had guys like R. White, Miles Austin fall my way. I like the core of Gore/White, Austin, Marshall Better then A. Johnson/Moreno, Benson or similar back you would be looking at. But thats just me. Edited August 16, 2010 by Menstrualgravy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremesc Posted August 16, 2010 Share Posted August 16, 2010 I would take Gore, I have a hunch he's in for a big year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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