Enough talk about Newton and Gabbert

[tazinib1]

Under-the-radar Ponder worthy of first-round status

 

By Pete Prisco

CBSSports.com Senior Writer

March 24, 2011Tell Pete your opinion!

 

It's trendy to say this year's NFL Draft features two potential franchise passers, clearly ahead of the rest of the quarterbacks.

 

OK, so which two?

 

The conventional thinking is that the top two are Auburn's Cam Newton and Missouri's Blaine Gabbert.

 

I'm thinking that Florida State's Christian Ponder might be changing that.

 

"He's pushing it," one NFL coach said. "I think he's ahead of Newton."

 

After dissecting both Ponder's junior and senior tapes the past week, I wouldn't argue. Ponder's junior tape, which came before he was bothered by arm troubles as a senior, is as good as anybody's in this draft. His senior tape clearly isn't as good, but it's not bad. You could just see there were some troubles with the arm.

 

Ponder has spent the past month showing the arm is fine. He was named MVP at the Senior Bowl and then threw well at both the combine and his pro day at FSU.

 

"The arm-trouble talk isn't an issue," one AFC scout said. "It's just that any time there is an issue with a quarterback's arm, it gets overblown."

 

Ponder entered the 2010 season as a potential high pick. He didn't play as well as he did as a junior, which brought on the perception that his stock had dropped considerably.

 

Call me guilty.

 

Watching him on television, I didn't think he was as good as I expected and clearly not as good as he was in 2009. After watching the game tapes, I came away convinced he wasn't as bad as he looked on the TV screen.

 

Here's what I like most about Ponder: He has a feel for what it takes to be successful at the line of scrimmage. Like TCU's Andy Dalton, another quarterback I like in this class, Ponder handled a lot at the line of scrimmage for the Seminoles.

 

During the games I watched, he was pointing out protections, pointing out blitzers, checking at the line. He appears far more advanced in doing that type of thing -- the thing that makes players like Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers so good -- than some of the other quarterbacks in this draft.

 

"You don't question his smarts," the coach said.

 

Said Ponder at the combine: "I really think I'm the whole package at quarterback. I have great accuracy and can make all the throws. Intelligence is a huge advantage for me, being able to comprehend offenses and defenses. We ran a complex offense at Florida State and I think it will carry over well to the NFL."

 

I recently watched Florida State's game against BYU from Ponder's junior year. The Seminoles owned the game, winning 54-28. Ponder was 21 of 26 for 199 yards, two scores and he rushed for 77 yards.

 

Two throws really stood out.

 

One came early in the game with FSU leading 7-0. On a third-and-11 from his own 25, Ponder lined up in the shotgun. He took the snap and opened to his right. He glances to the middle of the field for a second, where one receiver is crossing, but then quickly turns and throws a strike to Bert Reed on the left sideline for a 25-yard gain.

 

That play is one of many where I saw Ponder spin his head, coming off receivers, to make a throw to the backside.

 

The second play that impressed from that BYU game came on a third-and-goal from the 5 with Florida State up 20-14. Ponder had two receivers lined up to his right and one to the left. Tight end Caz Piurowski was lined up tight to his right.

 

At the snap, both receivers ran slants against man coverage. Most quarterbacks would try and fire a quick throw into tight coverage to one of those receivers. Not Ponder.

 

He patiently stood in the pocket, in the face of pressure from his left, and waited for his tight end to run free behind those slants against the linebacker. Ponder lofted a perfect touch pass to the back of the end zone to Piurowski for a score and a 13-point lead.

 

That's another thing that impressed me about Ponder -- the touch. He doesn't have a bazooka for an arm, but he can make all the throws. It's the touch that really impresses. He drops it over linebackers and in front of safeties. He puts it where the receivers can catch and run.

 

Ponder is also far more athletic than you would think. The Seminoles often ran him, and he showed quickness and the ability to make people miss. That will help when he's moving to throw in the NFL since he won't have the called runs nearly as much on the next level.

 

That isn't to say he is without flaws. In some of the games, I saw Ponder come off a receiver and throw to the other side without even looking, anticipating instead of seeing it with his eyes. This led to an interception in the 2009 Clemson game.

 

He also needs to be a little more patient in the pocket at times. That running ability is nice in college, but not in the NFL

 

The senior tape clearly isn't as impressive. You can see that late in the season he had troubles with his arm. In some of the early games, he looked like he did as a junior. But late in the season some throws sailed, and he didn't look like the arm had the same zip. He said he hurt the elbow in the sixth game against Miami. He had surgery after the season to fix it.

 

"I got hit in the sixth game of the year and the fascia, which is the connecting tissue between your skin and your muscle, got separated from my muscle and a little pocket formed," Ponder said. "Every time I landed on it fluid would build up. I'd get it drained once a week and the next game I'd land on it again. Throughout that whole process, scar tissue had built up and that was what was impeding it from healing. They went in and cut out all the scar tissue and did some other stuff to heal it. Now it's fine."

 

Even so, the arm concerns seemed to drop his stock, with some suggesting he might be a third-round pick.

 

That isn't happening now. It would be surprising if he doesn't go in the first round.

 

It would be a mistake if a quarterback-needy team in the middle of the first round didn't take Ponder.

 

He just might end up being the best quarterback in this class.

 

 

With all the hype surrounding Gabbert/Newton and the others, Ponder is gonna be the QB steal of this draft. I'm glad what I've been saying for a month now is being echoed.

[Seahawks21]

 

With all the hype surrounding Gabbert/Newton and the others, Ponder is gonna be the QB steal of this draft. I'm glad what I've been saying for a month now is being echoed.

Off the Special K kick already?

 

For about six months now Ponder has been the QB I was hoping the Seahawks would get. I was hoping second round. I'm not sure if I like the upside enough to take him in the first. I'm getting more comfortable with the idea, but not quite sold yet.

Edited March 26, 2011 by Seahawks21

[tazinib1]

Off the Special K kick already?

 

Nope. I have him listed as my #3 overall QB behind Ponder/Gabbert. And i would feel pretty good as a GM if I landed Special K in the 2nd round.

[Big John]

Nope. I have him listed as my #3 overall QB behind Ponder/Gabbert.

Confirmed

[Seahawks21]

Nope. I have him listed as my #3 overall QB behind Ponder/Gabbert. And i would feel pretty good as a GM if I landed Special K in the 2nd round.

Did you conveniently forget that one Jake Locker is in this draft?

[tazinib1]

Did you conveniently forget that one Jake Locker is in this draft?

 

 

I'm trying but you keep reminding me.

[BearBroncos]

Who? Anyway, anyone think Gabbert's pro day doesn't mean a thing?

[Seahawks21]

Who? Anyway, anyone think Gabbert's pro day doesn't mean a thing?

I think the pro days really only mean something if they are PERFECT, or bad. When Sanchez and Bradford went through their pro days without throwing an incomplete pass, that says something about their accuracy, period. Mallett threw great, but then again, everybody already knew he would, so we didn't learn anything new. Most guys throw 42-45 out of 50. At that point, you don't learn anything, and you have to go back to the tape. Jake Locker's for example, is significant. Lots of people are expecting that he's going to be all over the yard. If he comes out and is accurate, it could really help him. The only way Gabbert's would have been significant is if he was perfect or bad.

[Bronco Billy]

I think the pro days really only mean something if they are PERFECT, or bad. When Sanchez and Bradford went through their pro days without throwing an incomplete pass, that says something about their accuracy, period. Mallett threw great, but then again, everybody already knew he would, so we didn't learn anything new. Most guys throw 42-45 out of 50. At that point, you don't learn anything, and you have to go back to the tape. Jake Locker's for example, is significant. Lots of people are expecting that he's going to be all over the yard. If he comes out and is accurate, it could really help him. The only way Gabbert's would have been significant is if he was perfect or bad.

 

[Seahawks21]

Please, bless us all with your genius insight

[Bronco Billy]

Please, bless us all with your genius insight

 

Pretty obvious that you are beyond convincing. I guess you think that scout/staff just travel to the pro days because they love travelling and have nothing else better to do this time of year.

[muck]

What's the view on Andy Daulton?

[Seahawks21]

Pretty obvious that you are beyond convincing. I guess you think that scout/staff just travel to the pro days because they love travelling and have nothing else better to do this time of year.

Yeah, basically. I will tell you with 100% certainty that no team in the top-10 that was planning or not planning to take Gabbert with their pick changed their opinion even in the slightest based on his pro day. If he would have been electrically perfect or conversely terrible, it could have had an effect. They go hoping to learn something new. They expected him to throw pretty darn well, but were hoping for perfect. Perfect didn't happen, he threw pretty darn well, therefore you're right, it was basically a waste of time to go. They didn't learn a thing, and will wait for the private workouts. I'm not sure what you're getting at. Seems about as simple as it can get.

[Seahawks21]

What's the view on Andy Daulton?

I've seen the kid throw less than ten balls personally, but according to the John Clayton show, and I'm assuming he got this from his sources because he really isn't capable of original thought in regards to talent evaluation, he has one of the weaker arms in the class. Smart kid, very accurate, good intangibles, weak arm. Clayton mentioned he was laboring to throw the deep corner and 9 route. I believe it was the combine he was referring to. I've read similar evaluations other places as well, but have also seen some places that are quite a bit higher on him.

[tazinib1]

What's the view on Andy Daulton?

 

Haven't seen him play or watched any film on the kid.

But Trent Dilfer seems to belive Dalton will be a 1st round pick.

 

Dilfer also thought Sam Bradford would be a bust last year. "One of the reasons why he hasn't generated as much momentum and hype is because what personnel and coaches do at this time of the year when they've kind of settled on who they want, they're going to shut up about that guy," said Dilfer. "You'll hear a lot of good stuff about (Ryan) Mallett in the next couple weeks because they want to use him as a smoke screen." Added Dilfer, "I will not be wrong here. ... I'll be shocked if I'm wrong. Andy Dalton will be taken in the first round." Mar 24, 9:47 AM

[Bronco Billy]

I'm not sure what you're getting at. Seems about as simple as it can get.

 

That there is a lot more to playing QB than simply completing a pass, or a number of passes. Pro days are another opportunity to gather more information on a player and see how he is progressing along his learning curve - or if he even realizes his weaknesses enough to have worked on them.

 

For a player like Gabbert, if I'm a coach or scout, I'm watching his footwork and hips opening very carefully. I'm not only looking for footwork, but also improvement in his footwork from earlier workouts. I can get a good indication in a pro day of how much of a project he is, as well as seeing how capable he is of learning and applying over the period of a month or so.

 

Not that it appears to mean a damned thing to you since you only seemed concerned about dramatic negative changes or about a guy completing 50 of 50 passes, but if I'm evaluating whether my team is going to burn millions on this kid before he even steps on the field for us, I sure as hell want to know whether he will be ready to take snaps from center and get back into to his drops in August, or if I'm going to have to wait until December or later for that. That could also result in a decision to drop $8M on a stop gap starting QB in FA if he's not progressing well or if I only need a $3M backup because I am confident he can learn enough in a short time to start immediately.

 

And footwork is just one item. There are tons more that can tell me not only how ready he is right now, but also how readily and willingly he learns, whether he recognizes his weaknesses and works on them, his demeanor in a more comfortable setting - all sorts of things.

 

But I'm sure you're right. Pro days are absolutely meaningless and just fun-jet trips for coaches with nothing better to do.

[Bronco Billy]

I've seen the kid throw less than ten balls personally, but according to the John Clayton show, and I'm assuming he got this from his sources because he really isn't capable of original thought in regards to talent evaluation, he has one of the weaker arms in the class. Smart kid, very accurate, good intangibles, weak arm. Clayton mentioned he was laboring to throw the deep corner and 9 route. I believe it was the combine he was referring to. I've read similar evaluations other places as well, but have also seen some places that are quite a bit higher on him.

 

Weak arm? He's not Mallet, but he's got well above average arm strength. His 60 yd throws tend to flutter a bit, but that is more due to mechanics than lack of strength. Watch this kid throw 10 to 15 yd outs and the ball gets there not only in a hurry, but also where his guy is the only guy who can catch it.

 

Dalton is a poor man's Gabbert and has many of the same strengths and weaknesses. He QBed a spread O, so there are concerns about his footwork and taking snaps under center. He's got a 3/4 throwing motion. He's not as big, as tall, or as fast as Gabbert but he still has NFL QB size and speed. His leadership skill and "it" factor are outstanding. He can set in the pocket or roll and throws well while doing both - he's accurate, but he also tends to sail the ball when throwing on the run if he doesn't set his feet first. He understands progressions and runs through them. He can move the chains with his feet after the play breaks down.

 

Something else to remember about Dalton - he took a much smaller program to much higher places than Gabbert did. TCU was a legit contender for the national championship under his QBing. They could play with the big boys. Dalton's TCU team would have beaten Gabbert's Mizzou team by a couple of TDs in a head-to-head matchup. TCU didn't ask Dalton to throw as much as Gabbert, but if they did the two guys would likely have put up very similar numbers. Dalton had better career ypa, TD/INT ratio, and completion % than Gabbert.

 

Dalton could end up getting picked in the late 3rd to 4th round and give a team exactly what Gabbert gives his team with an early 1st round selection. Gabbert would probably do better in a vertical O, but Dalton would be as good or better if both guys went to the same WCO.

Edited March 28, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[tazinib1]

Don't be surprised Seahawks, if Seattle takes Dalton in the 2nd round (57th overall). Just say'n.

[muck]

The last time a TCU skill player was downplayed due to the 'spread system' four teams bypassed LaDanian Tomlinson before SD picked him #5 overall.

 

I think there will be more than a couple of teams that bypass Dalton on the same basis and end up regretting it.

[tazinib1]

The last time a TCU skill player was downplayed due to the 'spread system' four teams bypassed LaDanian Tomlinson before SD picked him #5 overall.

 

I think there will be more than a couple of teams that bypass Dalton on the same basis and end up regretting it.

 

I just read a recent mock that had Dalton going to Miami at 1.15

 

Sub that pick for Ponder and they could be on to something. Of course that same mock had Ingrim going to the Patriots in the 1st.