Tim Hightower

[whyme23]

I'm starting Hightower in my Flex position in one of my leagues, he's my #3 RB. Whether the Redskins are good or not Mike Shannahan knows how to run the ball, period. Hightower should be the main back and in line for about 1,100 yards and 8 tds in my opinion, which is rock solid.

Edited August 28, 2011 by whyme23

[Azazello1313]

if brent's exceptional, what does that make henry muto?

[bushwacked]

if brent's exceptional, what does that make henry muto?

 

 

[Square]

Hightower went 6.9 in a non-PPR BoTH league draft last night. Earlier than I expected, but then Helu went at 10.5 and that was a lot earlier than I expected so who knows. Apparently a lot of people think the Redskins offense is going to be a lot better this year. I still don't know if I trust a Grossman/Beck lead team to do too much on offense. If Grossman gets the starter gig, I'd expect a decent amount of interceptions and WASH playing from behind several times this year.

[Goopster24]

I've been high on Hightower since he got traded to Washington and since watching him in the preaseason, I like him even more. I'll take my chances with him without a doubt.

[detlef]

Exceptional Brent,

 

I should drop this but I can't. This whole "so I'm supposed to take guys I don't want?" bit is silly, but I'm guessing you know that. It's just that, lacking a credible argument, that's what you reached for because it was easier.

 

The point I'm making is that, we all have guys that we value over the norm, but we also have guys that we value along with the norm. I mean, is it safe to assume that there are guys you would like on your team that aren't "sexy sleepers"? Would you like to have Ray Rice? Andre Johnson? Tom Brady? Is it safe to say that there are others that are coveted by enough people to warrant a 1st-3rd round draft pick that you might also like? Maybe you think they're being taken too early, but you would, none-the-less, want them on your team? I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume the answer to that question is yes.

 

OK, now. In 2008, would you rather have had Roddy White and one of these guys that you and everyone likes? Or would you rather have had Roddy White and a guy who is there later? Let's not fixate on specific players, but rather your favorite player from the batch of guys who are likely to be there at picks 12-24 compared to those guys who should be there picks 48-60. And understand that you're going to trade back as many times as there are rounds that you could have safely waited on White. Say, the 5th round, for instance. Depending on your pick in the 5th, that's still at least 9 spots ahead of his ADP.. Hell, let's say you are so, completely sold on White that even 9 picks "early" wasn't a big enough buffer. So, you take him in the 4th. That's still 2 rounds worth of "better" choices that you afforded yourself by not pre-jacking the value pick and, well, making it not a value pick at all.

 

For instance, according to that same ADP, you could have gone Fitz at 1, AJ at 2, and still come back with White at 4. Assuming you have a Flex, you've now got three top WRs rather than 2. After all, there was no Andre Johnson waiting for you in the 4th or 5th round when you should have been taking Roddy White. Or, maybe there was a top-notch RB or QB you could have taken at 2 who was a much safer pick than the guys who were there at pick 4 or 5 when you should have made your Roddy White pick.

 

See, here's the deal. I was in three leagues that year, and I ended up with him on my team in each and every league I was playing in. Because, like you, I thought he was going to go bat-chight. But, because I didn't pre-jack the pick, I also ended up with some other great players that I took in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds before I snatched up White. So, both of us end up with White, but I end up with Roddy White and Andre Johnson, you end up with Roddy White and Jerricho Cotchery. Which pair do you want?

 

And, listen, I'm not even saying that the 5th is too soon for Hightower. If you look back through the years, you'll find that the 5th round is dicey as hell for success rates. So, it's not as if you're throwing away a sure-fire starter in favor of some "maybe" guy. I'm simply commenting on the perverse level you seem hell bent on taking this and, specifically, you claiming that taking Roddy White 30-40 picks earlier than you had to was somehow justified by the fact that he ended up being great. But it wasn't. It wasn't because you wasted your edge by taking him too soon. And by doing that, you traded Andre Johnson for Jerricho Cotchery. Would you make that trade? I wouldn't, but you did.

 

After all, you've given us two examples over the last few years. White and V Jax. Can I assume that you've missed on a few as well? I mean, it's OK. We all do. Hell, DMD makes a living at this and he sure as hell misses. Are you that much better than him? If so, why are you here? But here's the thing. If you use some patience and let your pet picks fall closer to their ADP, then you have the luxury of not having to nail each and every one, because you've also got a few blue-chips on your roster as well.

 

That's really it.

Edited August 29, 2011 by detlef

[delfamdelfam]

Exceptional Brent,

 

I should drop this but I can't. This whole "so I'm supposed to take guys I don't want?" bit is silly, but I'm guessing you know that. It's just that, lacking a credible argument, that's what you reached for because it was easier.

 

The point I'm making is that, we all have guys that we value over the norm, but we also have guys that we value along with the norm. I mean, is it safe to assume that there are guys you would like on your team that aren't "sexy sleepers"? Would you like to have Ray Rice? Andre Johnson? Tom Brady? Is it safe to say that there are others that are coveted by enough people to warrant a 1st-3rd round draft pick that you might also like? Maybe you think they're being taken too early, but you would, none-the-less, want them on your team? I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume the answer to that question is yes.

 

OK, now. In 2008, would you rather have had Roddy White and one of these guys that you and everyone likes? Or would you rather have had Roddy White and a guy who is there later? Let's not fixate on specific players, but rather your favorite player from the batch of guys who are likely to be there at picks 12-24 compared to those guys who should be there picks 48-60. And understand that you're going to trade back as many times as there are rounds that you could have safely waited on White. Say, the 5th round, for instance. Depending on your pick in the 5th, that's still at least 9 spots ahead of his ADP.. Hell, let's say you are so, completely sold on White that even 9 picks "early" wasn't a big enough buffer. So, you take him in the 4th. That's still 2 rounds worth of "better" choices that you afforded yourself by not pre-jacking the value pick and, well, making it not a value pick at all.

 

For instance, according to that same ADP, you could have gone Fitz at 1, AJ at 2, and still come back with White at 4. Assuming you have a Flex, you've now got three top WRs rather than 2. After all, there was no Andre Johnson waiting for you in the 4th or 5th round when you should have been taking Roddy White. Or, maybe there was a top-notch RB or QB you could have taken at 2 who was a much safer pick than the guys who were there at pick 4 or 5 when you should have made your Roddy White pick.

 

See, here's the deal. I was in three leagues that year, and I ended up with him on my team in each and every league I was playing in. Because, like you, I thought he was going to go bat-chight. But, because I didn't pre-jack the pick, I also ended up with some other great players that I took in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds before I snatched up White. So, both of us end up with White, but I end up with Roddy White and Andre Johnson, you end up with Roddy White and Jerricho Cotchery. Which pair do you want?

 

And, listen, I'm not even saying that the 5th is too soon for Hightower. If you look back through the years, you'll find that the 5th round is dicey as hell for success rates. So, it's not as if you're throwing away a sure-fire starter in favor of some "maybe" guy. I'm simply commenting on the perverse level you seem hell bent on taking this and, specifically, you claiming that taking Roddy White 30-40 picks earlier than you had to was somehow justified by the fact that he ended up being great. But it wasn't. It wasn't because you wasted your edge by taking him too soon. And by doing that, you traded Andre Johnson for Jerricho Cotchery. Would you make that trade? I wouldn't, but you did.

 

After all, you've given us two examples over the last few years. White and V Jax. Can I assume that you've missed on a few as well? I mean, it's OK. We all do. Hell, DMD makes a living at this and he sure as hell misses. Are you that much better than him? If so, why are you here? But here's the thing. If you use some patience and let your pet picks fall closer to their ADP, then you have the luxury of not having to nail each and every one, because you've also got a few blue-chips on your roster as well.

 

That's really it.

hard to argue with that

[NAUgrad]

People are getting ahead of themselves dreaming that Hightower could be this year's Foster. I think Hightower makes a darn good RB4 in the late 7th-8th round. He's not the kind of guy to reach for IMO simply because this offense is in flux, the preseason is not the regular season, and Shanahan can't be predicted. In other words, there is a fair amount of risk picking him. I don't like to reach for a high risk pick. I'd rather reach for someone like Mike Tolbert who can be had at a similar spot to Hightower (within a round of him, perhaps). At least with Tolbert, you have a guy who proved his value last year, signed a nice extension (I think it was an extension, but he might have been an RFA or something), and has a clearer role on the offense (RBBC, but on a dangerous offense, and seemingly has the goalline and 3rd down stuff sewn up - plus Mathews just doesn't strike me as a threat to somehow outplay Tolbert into a feature back role). It seems likely that Hightower will be sharing the load with Helu and/or Torain in some kind of RBBC, but Washington's offense is less proven, has a much worse QB/WR situation, and Hightower's role is not proven.

 

I understand the hype about Hightower (they traded for him knowing they had Torain and Helu on the roster, right?), but if his ADP keeps creeping up beyond the early 7th into the late 6th, mid 6th, etc., it means a better value is probably slipping at the same time. In the end, you go with your gut after weighing all the facts of the matter, but the facts don't exactly support a reach for Hightower, do they?

This is a solid post. I disagree on a couple of things, but could see this side of things as well. Watching Hightower, it seems clear to me that he is going to be the main workhorse. What percentage of carries that means, I'm not sure yet. Drafting him him in the mid to late 6th or in the 7th seems about right as well. I like Hightower as I think he has great upside this year.

 

I like Mathews as well this year as I think he also has great upside. Tolbert looks slow and not very explosive this year. I know it's only preseason and maybe I'm putting too much stock into the preseason play, but from what I've seen, Mathews is quicker to the hole and more explosive. I think both will be drafted about the same place, so I'm leaning toward Mathews. I think Tolbert's role is really not solid as of yet. Perhaps goal line, but I'm not sure he's the answer as the 3rd down back.

[rattsass]

Hightower is full steam ahead in drafts now. I did another FFPC draft last night and he went 4:8.

 

I took Benson in the 5th and Addai in the 6th. Boring yes, but my balls are not firmly in the grasp of Shanahan. And that's a good thing.

[JUMbotron]

Hightower is full steam ahead in drafts now. I did another FFPC draft last night and he went 4:8.

 

I took Benson in the 5th and Addai in the 6th. Boring yes, but my balls are not firmly in the grasp of Shanahan. And that's a good thing.

 

Nice. This quote is going in tomorrow's JUMbotron. I like the way you think.

[whyme23]

Benson and Addai are terrible and way past their prime, I'd take T-High all day over them.

[rattsass]

Benson and Addai are terrible and way past their prime, I'd take T-High all day over them.

Yes, they truly suck. However they are both likely the primary ball carrier for their teams and there is little question about it.

 

And they will both outscore Hightower this year, probably by a wide margin, just like Tolbert and several others drafted after Timmy at this point.

[whyme23]

Really? That's a bold prediction there. I am willing to bet Hightower outscores Addai and Benson easily....why all the hate for Hightower? he has looked great so far and Shanahan knows how to run the ball. He's the primary back for them too remember and just entering his prime.

Edited August 29, 2011 by whyme23

[rattsass]

Really? That's a bold prediction there. I am willing to bet Hightower outscores Addai and Benson easily....why all the hate for Hightower? he has looked great so far and Shanahan knows how to run the ball. He's the primary back for them too remember and just entering his prime.

I'd say it is a bold prediction to say any Shanahan back would outscore either of those guys.

 

Hightower HAD upside where he was being drafted. Now he has nothing but downside. Horrible pick in the 4th in my less than humble opinion.

[whyme23]

I'd say it is a bold prediction to say any Shanahan back would outscore either of those guys.

 

Hightower HAD upside where he was being drafted. Now he has nothing but downside. Horrible pick in the 4th in my less than humble opinion.

 

Yeah Shanahan hasn't produced any 1,000 yard backs you're right, Terrell Davis sucked. C'mon man Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary were scrubs and rushed for over 1,000 yards in his system.

 

Hightower is entering his 4th season in the league how is that nothing but downside? He had 10 rushing TDs his rookie year and has improved his YPC every season. He continues to get better and should have his best season yet this year. He's always shared time with other backs that doesn't mean he can't be productive. This is the first time he is the #1 RB, the way I see it there is nothing but upside.

 

Stop being a hater and come up with a real argument.

Edited August 29, 2011 by whyme23

[rattsass]

Yeah Shanahan hasn't produced any 1,000 yard backs you're right, Terrell Davis sucked. C'mon man Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary were scrubs and rushed for over 1,000 yards in his system.

 

Hightower is entering his 4th season in the league how is that nothing but downside? He had 10 rushing TDs his rookie year and has improved his YPC every season. He continues to get better and should have his best season yet this year. He's always shared time with other backs that doesn't mean he can't be productive. This is the first time he is the #1 RB, the way I see it there is nothing but upside.

 

Stop being a hater and come up with a real argument.

I like Hightower. I thought he was underutilized at times in Arizona. I don't have to come up with an argument except good common sense. You bring up examples of ancient history with a team in another place in another time. I'm relatively sure Hightower is not the second coming of Terrell Davis, and this Redskins team is decidely less able to produce fantasy champions than those teams.

 

But hey, Hightower has ripped up vanilla defenses during a pre-season the Rat has treated like a post-season, so surely he is destined for greatness.

 

I'm just here to keep people from driving off a cliff. But some people have blinders on and their foot jammed to the floorboard. Please, draft him with my blessings. Gods speed to you.

[detlef]

Yeah Shanahan hasn't produced any 1,000 yard backs you're right, Terrell Davis sucked. C'mon man Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary were scrubs and rushed for over 1,000 yards in his system.

 

Hightower is entering his 4th season in the league how is that nothing but downside? He had 10 rushing TDs his rookie year and has improved his YPC every season. He continues to get better and should have his best season yet this year. He's always shared time with other backs that doesn't mean he can't be productive. This is the first time he is the #1 RB, the way I see it there is nothing but upside.

 

Stop being a hater and come up with a real argument.

OK, for starters, I've got Hightower right in the mix with Benson and Addai, but not because I'm fired up about Hightower. Rather, that I'm not that high on the other two. I ended up with Addai in an auction, but only because the price was very right. I'll be avoiding Benson at nearly all cost.

 

At any rate, here are my reasons for why I have concerns about Hightower:

 

1) It's been a while since Shanny used a Bellcow back. Every year for the last several years, there's been a guy who skyrocketed up the draft boards as "the guy", and for some time now, that guy has disappointed.

2) He's a budding superstar and yet, AZ spends high picks on RBs after two of the three years Hightower has been in the league and then lets him walk?

3) He's on a team with either Grossmen or Beck at QB, so there's little to keep Ds honest, or move the ball down the field to give him legit shots at scoring TDs. I tend to avoid RBs on bad teams (which is why I'm not high on Benson) and I'm afraid Hightower fits that description. Sure, there are exceptions to that rule, but RBs whose team can't stay in the game tend to put up bad numbers because they can become non-factors in the 2nd half.

 

So, this is why he's a guy who I wouldn't mind having on my team at all, but only for the right price. It's why, in standard leagues, I'm grabbing RBs who I feel good about early so that I don't need to spend a 4th or 5th round pick on Hightower (or Benson or Addai for that matter). Now, once I've locked down my RBs that I feel good about and grabbed some nice WRs, and maybe a nice QB or TE if the right ones are there, I'll gladly take a chance on him in the 6th or 7th. But at the rate he's going, I'm going to have to take him instead of some RBs and WRs who don't have near the questions surrounding them and I can't do that.

Edited August 29, 2011 by detlef

[delusions of grandeur]

Stop being a hater and come up with a real argument.

Well, the argument that Shanahan rarely ever gives more than 60% to any back in a season has already been documented in this thread, and let's face it, Hightower is not quite Clinton Portis either, but do you know the one thing that Hightower has struggled with, and will get you in the doghouse with Shanny really quick? Yup, you guessed it: Fumbling.

 

I do like what I've seen out of Hightower this preseason, and want to believe it will somehow be different, but the hype is getting out of hand... As mentioned, the other options aren't higher than him because they have more upside, it's that they don't have such potential downside attached.

[whyme23]

All valid points, rattass just throws out statements and can't back any of them up so it's nice to see real football knowledge. I understand the concerns on Hightower but Rattsass said he has "nothing but downside" and I couldn't disagree more. He is definitely worth a shot ahead of Addai and Benson IMO and has way bigger upside than both of those guys. I drafted him as my #3 RB and plan to use him as my primary flex player. The trade argument can go both ways, why would Shanahan trade for him if he was sold on the other backs? Clearly he is going to give Timmy H every chance to succeed this year so it is worth the gamble if you can get him at a decent price.

[detlef]

All valid points, rattass just throws out statements and can't back any of them up so it's nice to see real football knowledge. I understand the concerns on Hightower but Rattsass said he has "nothing but downside" and I couldn't disagree more. He is definitely worth a shot ahead of Addai and Benson IMO and has way bigger upside than both of those guys. I drafted him as my #3 RB and plan to use him as my primary flex player. The trade argument can go both ways, why would Shanahan trade for him if he was sold on the other backs? Clearly he is going to give Timmy H every chance to succeed this year so it is worth the gamble if you can get him at a decent price.

I believe the "nothing but downside" argument had to do with the fact that all his upside had been built into his new price. It's like buying stock. At some point, a stock's upside gets so hyped that you're paying for it. That's when the stock fails to represent a value and is far more likely to let you down than make you happy. Because you've paid for how good it might be and the best you can count on is that it lives up to what you paid for it.

 

The same thing happens every August with a guy like Hightower (and it's happening with Julio Jones as well). You see glimpses of promise that make the guy seem like a much better pick than others who are being taken around him. With Jones, the stigma is the fact that rookie WRs often fail to put up great numbers, but this guy seems special and is in a great situation. But then everyone gets excited about him and, ultimately, you're taking him over other WRs who've been in the game and have shown they belong on this level. At that point, you've priced out all the upside because now you're taking him at a spot where he needs to be a regular producer rather than a nice surprise.

 

And that's what's happening with Hightower. Taking him in the 4th means that he's no longer that RB3 with upside.

[Azazello1313]

not much talk in this thread about ryan torain. to me that's the biggest question out there with regard to hightower. he is close to coming back from his hand injury, and yeah he has had the injury bug (understatement), but he has shown himself to be very capable in the shanahan running game. admittedly I have not been following the situation very closely, but it seems to me a complete crap shoot (throw in helu as well) to try and figure out where the carries ultimately go. some nice work in preseason games really does not answer that question to my satisfaction, esepcially when shanahan has shown such a propensity to switch horses so often. chances are good hightower takes the first snap in the firsr game, but beyond that? hey, good luck pretending you know how that's gonna turn out.

 

as a result, I'm much more likely to grab torain in the 11th or 12th and let some preseason hype glutton draft hightower in the 4th.

[delusions of grandeur]

All valid points, rattass just throws out statements and can't back any of them up so it's nice to see real football knowledge. I understand the concerns on Hightower but Rattsass said he has "nothing but downside" and I couldn't disagree more. He is definitely worth a shot ahead of Addai and Benson IMO and has way bigger upside than both of those guys. I drafted him as my #3 RB and plan to use him as my primary flex player. The trade argument can go both ways, why would Shanahan trade for him if he was sold on the other backs? Clearly he is going to give Timmy H every chance to succeed this year so it is worth the gamble if you can get him at a decent price.

Dude, you might want to look again before calling out a staff writer for having no football knowledge.... As me and Det showed you, he has plenty to back his statements on, and you should be glad that he's giving you a warning about overpaying for a guy with significant risk attached over safer bets.

 

You don't have to agree, but don't go calling out people just because they don't share your same enthusiasm.

[whyme23]

oooooh staff writer, so that means he knows everything? I was just looking for a simple argument instead of a gut feeling with no support. I understand the warnings about Hightower, but anybody you take at that spot is going to have risks without as much upside.

 

You honestly think Benson and Addai have more upside than Hightower? To claim that Hightower has "nothing but downside" makes no sense.

[detlef]

oooooh staff writer, so that means he knows everything? I was just looking for a simple argument instead of a gut feeling with no support. I understand the warnings about Hightower, but anybody you take at that spot is going to have risks without as much upside.

 

You honestly think Benson and Addai have more upside than Hightower? To claim that Hightower has "nothing but downside" makes no sense.

Go back and read the post. He said, where Hightower was being drafted, he had upside, but now that he's going in the 4th he doesn't. And that, Benson or Addai picked 1 and 2 rounds later than Hightower did, by virtue of where they were going. That is not to say that one prefers those two players to Hightower all things being equal (though that could certainly be the case), but rather that you'll gladly take them a round or two later than it seems like Hightower's new price dictates. I mean, one or two rounds at that stage in the draft is still a pretty big deal.

 

That's really it.

 

And this has nothing to do with anyone's cred around here and everything to do with the fact that he's making perfect sense in this case.

[delusions of grandeur]

oooooh staff writer, so that means he knows everything? I was just looking for a simple argument instead of a gut feeling with no support. I understand the warnings about Hightower, but anybody you take at that spot is going to have risks without as much upside.

 

You honestly think Benson and Addai have more upside than Hightower? To claim that Hightower has "nothing but downside" makes no sense.

You should re-read the last page of this thread, and come back when you want to discuss rather than just bicker.

 

One more time: No one is saying Addai or Benson have more upside, but their roles on their teams are much safer, which means far less downside, and currently you can get them at a later ADP than where Hightower has risen to... Hightower's downside is compounded by his now high ADP, putting him into RB2 range where he's not so much of a steal anymore... That is the argument that has plenty of basis.