Def. Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Can you point to one fact that will support your claim? Saying that starting the player who you project to score higher is always the best play, is not a fact, it is opinion. I have no facts to support the strategy in question as I have never had reason to think about doing such a thing and have never seen it used or if I have, did not realize that is why someone was making the decision. Only that I'm open to the possibility of using it if the need arises. I don't - and neither does any one else here - know the right move in ever situation this hobby of ours provides, but when something new comes up I don't dismiss it based solely on the fact that I think one player will score more, especially if I see a valid reasoning to the idea of it. Your score > their score = win 100% of time Your "probability of winning" is always going to be highest by starting the players that score the most points. Not saying you are always going to get it right, but no other factors involved are ever going to increase your probability other then simply scoring the most points possible. It really is that simple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Croe Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I agree with the notion that no strategy should be completely dismissed, and I can see how one would see this as a way of mitigating risk since we don't know how any players will perform. I'm not sure I agree, but I'm willing to accept that possibility. However, in all of my years of fantasy football, I have NEVER been in a situation where both of my starting QBs play on Sunday and/or Monday night, I am up on my opponent, and one of my two quarterbacks would be throwing to one of my opponent's receivers while the other doesn't. It makes more sense to discuss this situation without knowing any of "in progress" scoring, as 99.9% of the time, that's when we have to make lineup decisions. And in those situations, you start the guy you think will score the most points. If you are convinced that they are equally likely to score the exact same number of points, then look at other variables (weather factors, playing on the road vs. home, etc.) to see if it sways you one way or the other. Your opponent's roster really doesn't mean squat. In fact, I'd argue that with Cutler's history specifically, I'd rather start Rivers purely on the notion that he's less likely to sprain his vagina than Cutler. HAHA. I have never seen this situation arise either. I don't even think that I would do this in the future if it did show up. But it would give me pause to think about the implications of starting one vs the other, it is something we all do week in and week out at every position. Why would it be any different in this small % case. OP even stated that he started Rivers, but he wanted to get an idea as to why or when giving the nod to Cutler might not be a bad idea. Nothing more, nothing less. Your score > their score = win 100% of time Your "probability of winning" is always going to be highest by starting the players that score the most points. Not saying you are always going to get it right, but no other factors involved are ever going to increase your probability other then simply scoring the most points possible. It really is that simple. You don't say?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the outlaw Posted October 1, 2014 Author Share Posted October 1, 2014 WOW! sorry to have sparked such a heated debate! IMO, what it really boils down to, is the "known" vs. the "unknown"...going into any given week, we really don't know who is going to score what...we don't "know" for sure who is going to put up the most points THAT week...but, from my perspective, all other things equal (i.e., you "think" Cutler and Rivers are going to put up similar numbers), then why wouldn't you start Cutler if your opponent has one of the Bears WRs starting? this ensures that you mitigate the potential point differential of Marshall "blowing-up" for 3 TDs like he did in Week 2 (when who the hell even knew he was going to play in the Sunday night game?)...i'm certainly not suggesting you start Josh McCown (when he was starting) over Aaron Rodgers just because your opponent is starting V-Jax...that IS insane...my OP was strictly based upon a scenario where you believe all things are equal between both of your starting QB options...simple as that...anyway, thanks for all of the interest in my post! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Croe Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I thought it was a great question. One I have never really given much thought to in the past. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Def. Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 You don't say?? You do realize you've been arguing against that based on "perceived risks" and "projections" right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Croe Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 You do realize you've been arguing against that based on "perceived risks" and "projections" right? How can one argue against the fact that he who scores the most points win? Sure I was arguing for thinking about risks and projections, is that not how I would make a decision on who to start in order to assure me the most points in my match up? So wouldn't arguing for mitigating risk based on projections (which are the only two factors you have to go on because you never know who is going to have a good or bad game) be considered arguing for scoring the most points? Maybe it is just me, maybe I'm stupid, but to me not taking into consideration the scenario you are presented with week in and week out can lead to scoring fewer points than your opponent, which is not the desired end result. A win is a win, either way you look at it. If you lose because you started a player you projected to score more points, you still lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I'll just say that in my now 19 years of playing fantasy football, usually with between 3 and 8 leagues, I have never seen this perfect storm of a scenario come up. There is certainly no way that I would start a player I felt would have an inferior showing before any games have been played, which is how I took the OP to be posing his question. Am I open to the possibility that risk mitigation could allow for such a scenario when the criteria of I have 2 QBs left to play on Monday night, my opponent has 1.. and only 1 player left (if he has more, than I need to maximize my point potential, not mitigate risk)that happens to be the WR for one of those QBs, I have a decent sized lead based on our scoring system and my league allows me to change my lineup at that point in time, then I am open to the possibility that starting a QB that I project to be close but slightly inferior to my other option could be a prudent move. However, absent all of those criterion being met, I can not come up with a scenario where I would entertain the idea. I definitely would not do it before games have begun as I need to maximize scoring potential and I would not do it if my opponent had more than 1 player left as I need to maximize scoring potential. I suppose this may be a in theory it could happen, but in all reasonable expectation, it is highly unlikely to ever present itself in actuality. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 WOW! sorry to have sparked such a heated debate! IMO, what it really boils down to, is the "known" vs. the "unknown"...going into any given week, we really don't know who is going to score what...we don't "know" for sure who is going to put up the most points THAT week...but, from my perspective, all other things equal (i.e., you "think" Cutler and Rivers are going to put up similar numbers), then why wouldn't you start Cutler if your opponent has one of the Bears WRs starting? this ensures that you mitigate the potential point differential of Marshall "blowing-up" for 3 TDs like he did in Week 2 (when who the hell even knew he was going to play in the Sunday night game?)...i'm certainly not suggesting you start Josh McCown (when he was starting) over Aaron Rodgers just because your opponent is starting V-Jax...that IS insane...my OP was strictly based upon a scenario where you believe all things are equal between both of your starting QB options...simple as that...anyway, thanks for all of the interest in my post! Don't be sorry.. be proud as it's the most interesting thing to happen here in some time. Always good to get a good debate going on strategy. As to your particular comments, I can't see a situation where after considering factors like matchup, weather, home/away, injury status, injury status to teammates that may affect production, injury to defensive players, recent trending etc. that I would still have two players with the exact same projection and the same level of confidence in said projection. In the rare event that I do, factors such as the position of the moon, the flip of a coin or which QB has the hotter significant other have just as much bearing on the performance as my opponents lineup. When can use that as a crutch to make us feel like we used something football related to come to the decision, but the reality is that it is just as random as those other things. And to your point about McCown vs. Rodgers, that is exactly what others in the thread are suggesting one should do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the outlaw Posted October 1, 2014 Author Share Posted October 1, 2014 ...or which QB has the hotter significant other have just as much bearing on the performance as my opponents lineup... well don't think i've ever seen Rivers' significant other (or, even know if he has one), so given this factor, i would have to go w/Cutler every time!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Croe Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 well don't think i've ever seen Rivers' significant other (or, even know if he has one), so given this factor, i would have to go w/Cutler every time!!! River's wife is a good looking girl, but I give the nod to Cutler in that case as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 When you set your line up for the week EVERYTHING is unknown. At this time we make the assumption that none of our players are going to get hurt and that they will play the whole game, those that are injured we eliminate from consideration. We look at our potential players and decided on who to insert into the lineup. Our goal is to start the players that will score the maximum number of points. We often consider things like the strength of the NFL opponent our player is facing against his skill, weather, home versus away and even sometimes special circumstances like Steve Smith Sr. facing his old team. If you are playing a WR you might consider the corner that is going to cover him. We may consider the current scoring trend of our player. These are all things that may impact the final score our player puts up. In the end we choose the players that we believe will give us the highest probability of scoring the most points. It simply doesn't make sense to choose a lineup that we feel does NOT maximize our point potential. You cannot convince me that ANY "strategy" that has me starting a player I believe will score fewer points than another player I have is a sound strategy. Why would you handicap yourself by starting a player you feel will not maximize your scoring potential. The players my opponent starts against me is absolutely NOT relevant to reaching a conclusion on what I believe to be my maximum lineup. I get that after all is said and done that I may not have maximized my scoring potential and I may have made some bad decisions. But when I make my decisions I have to go on what I believe will happen. It is the nature of fantasy football that I often make such mistakes. There are other factors that may come into play. I may see that my opponent is a strong opponent and is highly likely to score lots of points. This may cause me to think I might have to take bigger risks in setting my lineup. But again I still do not care WHICH players he starts, what I care about is how much his team as a whole will score. His specific players are still not relevant to which players I choose to start. I may see that my opponent is a weak opponent and highly like to score a low amount of points. This may cause me to choose a "safer" lineup where I start my stead guys and settle for lower score (knowing this can still back fire). Once again I don't really care about WHICH players he is starting but I care about how much I think his team as a WHOLE will score. When I set my lineup as a whole I don't consider his players versus mine. Because if I start Cutler who I think will score fewer points than Rivers because my opponent is starting Marshall I am not considering that I may need the extra points from Rivers to make up negative point differential elsewhere (i.e. I want to MAXIMIZE my lineup). So when I set my lineup before the games the specific players my opponent is starting is 100% irrelevant. Surely you are not arguing otherwise? I suppose this is where you will say but I consider Cutler and Rivers to be absolutely equal, then I consider that my opponent is starting Marshall. I find it pretty rare that after you consider all the other factors like matchup, weather, home vs away, etc that the players are equal but if that is the case then choosing Cutler because your opponent has Marshall is as valid as flipping a coin. I think you are also refusing to acknowledge that in this world of PPR it is very easy for a WR to outscore his QB. Now if you want to talk about making a lineup change going into the last game of the week when you have Rivers or Cutler left to his Marshall. I would counter that your odds of having two absolutely equivalent QBs versus his one WR going into the last game of the week are next to impossible. But even then I will always start the QB I believe will score the MOST points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the outlaw Posted October 2, 2014 Author Share Posted October 2, 2014 Let me reduce this to the most simplistic terms...you believe Cutler will score 20 fantasy points and you believe Rivers is going to score 20 fantasy points...your opponent is starting Marshall, or Jeffery, or Bennett, or heck for the sake of this situation, maybe even Holmes...which QB do you start? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Def. Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Let me reduce this to the most simplistic terms...you believe Cutler will score 20 fantasy points and you believe Rivers is going to score 20 fantasy points...your opponent is starting Marshall, or Jeffery, or Bennett, or heck for the sake of this situation, maybe even Holmes...which QB do you start? The one playing the weaker pass defense and/or has acceptable weather conditions and/or has his full compliment of playmakers/line to name a few. I tend to go statistical like who's averaging more pass attempts, better completion %, how many 20+ yd throws have they attempted (if bonus for distance of TD), INT/Fumbles they have (again if applicable), etc... There are many factors affecting my players to consider. My thought is to focus on the things I can control and not worry about those I can't like is he/she going to start Marshall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Let me reduce this to the most simplistic terms...you believe Cutler will score 20 fantasy points and you believe Rivers is going to score 20 fantasy points...your opponent is starting Marshall, or Jeffery, or Bennett, or heck for the sake of this situation, maybe even Holmes...which QB do you start? What if your opponent also has a SD receiver, and he switches them in for the CHI player after you make your choice? What do you do then, switch again? If I think they are really equal I'd probably flip a coin, look at weather, trends of those players/teams and their opponents, something that helps make the decision. PS You forgot the "and I have a big lead and its MNF and there are no other players left on either team" part of what is the 1% situation where that strategy may have some merit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Croe Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 The one playing the weaker pass defense and/or has acceptable weather conditions and/or has his full compliment of playmakers/line to name a few. I tend to go statistical like who's averaging more pass attempts, better completion %, how many 20+ yd throws have they attempted (if bonus for distance of TD), INT/Fumbles they have (again if applicable), etc... There are many factors affecting my players to consider. My thought is to focus on the things I can control and not worry about those I can't like is he/she going to start Marshall. Wouldn't all the conditions already be taken into consideration when you come up with the projection of 20 points for either guy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Def. Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Wouldn't all the conditions already be taken into consideration when you come up with the projection of 20 points for either guy? No player is ever going to be 100% equal on every factor with another. I'm going to look into the factors to see which is more likely to affect them reaching their projection. Whether Marshal is in the opposing team starting lineup does not factor into their projection. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Even if you project the players to score about the same, you likely have a differing level of confidence in that projection..... thus, lean towards the one in which you are a bit more confident in hitting that projection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KipperSD Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Good topic. Good debate. I have always wondered about how opponent WRs on the same team as your QB come into play, or how a DEF comes into play. If your QB throws TDs to other WRs then your opponent's WR, you have a nice advantage. However, if your QB is throwing TDs to your opponents WRs, I feel like your at a disadvantage because you have a WR staying on pace with a QB in points, when generally a QB is to score more points. Do you guys agree? Do you guys do anything different in this situation? I guess it goes back to the debate and OP, does your opponents lineup ever come into consideration when choosing your lineup? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 does your opponents lineup ever come into consideration when choosing your lineup? No.... it doesn't and it never should (except for the very rare, almost impossible situation where it is Monday night, you have both QBs left to play, your opponent has the WR for one of them, you have a decent sized lead and you are allowed to change your lineup at that point.... and even then, it really shouldn't be a factor as you should still go for the QB you believe will score more, but there could be some potential merit from a risk mitigation perspective). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 If we are talking about Cutler and Rivers and after I have considered EVERYTHING I still reach the conclusion that they are both projected out at 20 points ... I go Rivers because I believe it is much more likely for Cutler to throw more interceptions (negative points) or to implode. At no point does it EVER cross my mind that who my opponent may or may not be starting 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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