Rbrown Posted April 28, 2021 Share Posted April 28, 2021 12 team, 2 keeper league. I'm assuming that Mahomes and Lamar will be kept. After that, there's only a few true QB1's out there. Allen, Dak, Rodgers, Kyler, and Brady are the only "sure things" left. Maybe Wilson in that next tier with Herbert, Cousins, and possibly Winston if Saints use him similar to how they used Brees. No Brees Matt Ryan moves into QB1 territory if Falcons don't draft QB. If they do, how long before they sit Ryan for some fresh blood, especially if they trade/cut Julio? No Rivers.. not a great QB but was a valid streamer or bench QB Tua is a gamble Stafford is a possibility if nothing better available Burrow is also possibility but that knee may not be 100% by season's start Hurts.. no thank you Wentz.. nah Goff.. nope Watson.. wait and see approach... ?? Big Ben .. eh.. Tannehill.. Maybe Jimmy G.. Niners are bailing on him There are others, but you get the gist. I pick 11th of 12 so I'll have a huge gap between picks. My keepers are D. Adams and either JRob or Gibson. Was planning on Rb/Wr with first two picks, but would consider Rb/Qb if Rodgers happens to be there, having Rodgers/Adams stack would be nice but would I'd have to nail my next pick at WR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League_Champion Posted April 28, 2021 Share Posted April 28, 2021 Since you'll have a WR and RB1 you can definitely afford to take a shot earlier than normal. Maybe the 4th or 5th round? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rbrown Posted April 28, 2021 Author Share Posted April 28, 2021 18 minutes ago, League_Champion said: Since you'll have a WR and RB1 you can definitely afford to take a shot earlier than normal. Maybe the 4th or 5th round? That's what I'm thinking but it worries me. Keepers are rounds 1 & 2, so my actual first two picks are 3rd and 4th round. I'd normally go Rb/Wr there, which would leave 21 picks before I go again in 5th, by then, I might be stuck with bottom of the barrel. However if I go with QB with one of first two picks.. probably Rb/Qb since Adams is clearly the higher graded player.. i'd be taking a gamble on whoever I'd end up with as RB2. An Adams\Rodgers stack would make me happy, but RB2 would end up with something like Monte/Gordon/Mostert/Carson, if I'm lucky. Carson would be good RB2. Or maybe I snag a rookie like Najee? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted April 28, 2021 Share Posted April 28, 2021 Where do you expect a bigger drop off in production to occur? A. Between the QB you are likely to get drafting one with your 3rd/4th round picks compared to waiting (possibly even until closer to the 7th/8th or even 9th/10th assuming this is a start 1 QB league) or B. Between the RB or WR you pass on at that 3rd/4th round area compared to the RB or WR you would take later on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rbrown Posted April 28, 2021 Author Share Posted April 28, 2021 42 minutes ago, Big Country said: Where do you expect a bigger drop off in production to occur? A. Between the QB you are likely to get drafting one with your 3rd/4th round picks compared to waiting (possibly even until closer to the 7th/8th or even 9th/10th assuming this is a start 1 QB league) or B. Between the RB or WR you pass on at that 3rd/4th round area compared to the RB or WR you would take later on? It's hard to say. One thing to consider is, (1Qb league) Qb's get a 5 point bonus for 300 yds passing and another at 400 and 500. So, in that regard, the difference between Rodgers and Carr is HUGE. A QB that averages 290 yds passing per game is going to average 11pts/game, not counting TDs (6 points) vs a QB that averages 310 per game averaging 17pts/game. That's considerable. Also, in this league (which I joined probably 15 years after it started) QBs are valued, almost all teams keep two on roster. My first couple years in the league I was scraping the bottom of the barrel for QBs because I waited too long. They were all gone way before people in other leagues even started drafting them. My first year in this league I was stuck with Dalton and Wentz, luckily it was the year Wentz ended up putting up decent numbers before he got hurt (super bowl year) To be fair, RBs and WRs also get a 5 pt bonus at 100 yards rushing or receiving. But, it's not often a 3rd or 4th rounder goes off for 100 yds very much more often than an 5th or 6th rounder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League_Champion Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 12 hours ago, Rbrown said: It's hard to say. I've never been big on drafting QBs early. You can win by rotating a couple middle of the road QBs. BUT in your case I'd probably nab one early. It's a 12 man keeper league and it's slim pickings this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 17 hours ago, Rbrown said: It's hard to say. One thing to consider is, (1Qb league) Qb's get a 5 point bonus for 300 yds passing and another at 400 and 500. So, in that regard, the difference between Rodgers and Carr is HUGE. A QB that averages 290 yds passing per game is going to average 11pts/game, not counting TDs (6 points) vs a QB that averages 310 per game averaging 17pts/game. That's considerable. Also, in this league (which I joined probably 15 years after it started) QBs are valued, almost all teams keep two on roster. My first couple years in the league I was scraping the bottom of the barrel for QBs because I waited too long. They were all gone way before people in other leagues even started drafting them. My first year in this league I was stuck with Dalton and Wentz, luckily it was the year Wentz ended up putting up decent numbers before he got hurt (super bowl year) To be fair, RBs and WRs also get a 5 pt bonus at 100 yards rushing or receiving. But, it's not often a 3rd or 4th rounder goes off for 100 yds very much more often than an 5th or 6th rounder. For the first part, sure for averages it's a big drop, but what about actual production. Over the last several years, what is the typical drop in scoring between QBs 1-3 and say QBs 10-12, or, as you say QBs go fast and furious in this league, even QBs 14-16. Then, assuming it's a start 2 RB and 2-3 WR league, the difference between RB 1-3 and say RB 20-24, similar ranges for WRs. That gives you a better idea on the range of outcomes/value drop using your actual scoring system (that way if it is overly QB friendly, it will account for that). If you really think QB is scarce this year, or that exercise shows a larger drop at QB and based on your league's history (which seems to indicate QBs going earlier than typical) you can better come up with a plan. I am usually a big take a QB as late as possible advocate assuming a fairly standard scoring system and lineup options (zigging while others zag), and usually even more so if my opponents are likely to overdraft QBs as it means I am able to stock up on more early round RBs/WRs, but that strategy adjusts if lineups (ie superflex/2QB) or scoring system (ie very QB friendly where we essentially are playing fantasy QB each week) dictates a change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Montana is da Man Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Even in your situation I wouldn't take one before round 5 and thats only if a top 6 qb falls to the 5th round Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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