steeler Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 just wait-belichick will devise a game plan to stop the run-because he knows Ben can't beat them! 660482[/snapback] What can he do besides put 8 in the box? 9 in the box? And if he does that Burress and Ward should have great days against the 3rd and 4th string CBs. My contention (and I realize I could be full of Athena) is that it will be harder for BB to create some new scheme or wrinkle to stop the Steelers running game. He sure didn't have an answer for it in the first game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bill2 Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 What can he do besides put 8 in the box? 9 in the box? And if he does that Burress and Ward should have great days against the 3rd and 4th string CBs.My contention (and I realize I could be full of Athena) is that it will be harder for BB to create some new scheme or wrinkle to stop the Steelers running game. He sure didn't have an answer for it in the first game. 660484[/snapback] steeler-i may also be getting ahead of myself. what i said in my original post was that the pats would have more rushing yards than the steelers on sunday. and i'll stick to that prediction. the combo of dillon a k faulk will out gain pit because they will have to go to the air with big ben-and that will be PIT's downfall. ben won't be able to handle the pressure. last time we lost ty law during the game. theirs a big differenc of planning a game when you know he's out then to suddenly not have him because he goes down early in a game. that being said it should be an excellent game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steeler Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 steeler-i may also be getting ahead of myself. what i said in my original post was that the pats would have more rushing yards than the steelers on sunday. and i'll stick to that prediction. the combo of dillon a k faulk will out gain pit because they will have to go to the air with big ben-and that will be PIT's downfall. ben won't be able to handle the pressure. last time we lost ty law during the game. theirs a big differenc of planning a game when you know he's out then to suddenly not have him because he goes down early in a game. that being said it should be an excellent game. 660486[/snapback] It will be an excellent game. But I think the you are taking for granted that the Pats will be able to stop the Steelers ground attack... which will be the most probable reason the Steelers would have to rely on Ben to win. I don't think it's going to be that easy for the Pats to contain the Steelers ground game... nobody has done it that effectively yet and I think they will have success on the ground this week. I will say though that if your predictions are correct the Steelers would probably lose by a couple TDs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
louisville lip Posted January 19, 2005 Author Share Posted January 19, 2005 Your overall point is valid--but don't use week 17 to prove it. Those games were both meaningless, and even the short-sighted public ignored them. You are right though, after the Pit gift-win on Saturday, but before the NE game against Ind, lines were posted at some books for both Pit/Ind and Pit/NE. So the answer to your first question is Pit was listed as a 1.5 to 2 point favorite over NE. [Get this--Ind was also listed as a 3 point favorite over Pit.] When the Pats demolished Ind on Sunday, the oddsmakers knew that all that Ind money would turn to NE money and reversed the line to NE by 2, which the public immediately bet up to 3. The reason the Pats are favored is more because of the way NE played on Sunday (without Seymour), and not so much about how bad Roethy looked on Saturday. How is Pit going to get into the end zone if Ind couldn't? 660207[/snapback] Fans' impressions of the two teams following week seventeen is indeed relevant in making my point. To suggest that the Bills game against the Steelers was not far and away the Bills most important game in years is moronic! Although the Pats had nothing riding on their game that week, they played their starters for three quarters, and struggled mightily against the 49ers. Faced with the results of those two games, the public -- and all the "wiseguys" for that matter -- were compelled to perceive the Steelers as the better team, especially with the fiasco against the Dolphins two weeks earlier on Monday night football. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xpanda Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 I expect the line to tighten a little as more people that are thinking like the original poster start to put out some money. 660216[/snapback] That's not happening, though. The line on the Steelers is seeing reduced juice as the week progresses. I'm waiting to buy the half-point, but they won't budge that buy past -135, it seems. According to wagerline.com, as of yesterday 70% bets were going to NE. If the books thought NE would actually win, they would have jumped off the 3 by now, to -3.5, or at least charged, not given, juice for the -3. (Pinnacle at -3, +105) Also, consider that the vast majority of playoff dogs don't cover and lose, they win outright when they cover. If you like Pitt and can't find +3.5 for -120 or so, take the moneyline. It's paying +131 at Pinnacle as I type this. Last meeting NE ran the ball 6 times. Clock control was all in the Steelers favour. People say defense wins championships -- in acuality, clock control wins championships. Week 8, Pit won this battle by a ratio of 43:17 minutes. Huge discrepancy. Also, note that Pit leads the league in rushing attemps with 618 and only 8 fumbles. That's a brilliant stat. If Pit can prevent turnovers, they win easily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 they also looked like sh*t (offensively, at least) on saturday and deserved to lose to the jets 660155[/snapback] They actually moved the ball at will against the Jets in the 2nd half, but they also had three turnovers. 660410[/snapback] i would say that turning the ball over three times definitely counts as "looking like sh*t offensively" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NAUgrad Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 just wait-belichick will devise a game plan to stop the run-because he knows Ben can't beat them! 660482[/snapback] Ben can beat them and Pitt will outrush the Pats!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 They also saw what Corey Dillion did and then they notice that the Steelers did not play against Dillion in that game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steeler Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 According to wagerline.com, as of yesterday 70% bets were going to NE. If the books thought NE would actually win, they would have jumped off the 3 by now, to -3.5, or at least charged, not given, juice for the -3. 660984[/snapback] I don't gamble much....does this means the books think the Steelers are going to win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 Watch the money. The bookmakers keep moving the line toward the Steelers. Originally Steelers +3 (-130). Now Steelers +3 (-115). Lotsa money coming in for New England. 659999[/snapback] FYI it's still Steelers +3 (-115), Pats -3 (-105). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 Personally I never have and probably never will bet on games. Even if I were someone who would bet on games I would find the Steelers vs Pats game a very hard one to pick and be confident in winning. This game can just go either way. The only thing that may be safe is the over/under (not sure of what that is now). With the forcasted snow here in Pittsburgh the under may be the way to go. Considering that Heinz Field isnt a great playing surface as it is and throw snow into the mix along with 2 solid D's it has the making of a low scoring game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 FYI it's still Steelers +3 (-115), Pats -3 (-105). 662985[/snapback] Wow. Someone above noted that 70% of the bets coming in are on New England, yet the line and the money line haven't moved. If that's true, that means that the bets coming in on NE are much smaller, on average, than the bets on Pittsburgh. This would imply that the "smart" money is on Pittsburgh. Either that, or the casinos have found a third party with which to hedge their books - probably some of the offshore casinos. Most of the offshore casinos cater to small-time bettors. That probably means that well over 70% of the bets placed are on NE, but the people betting on Pittsburgh are considerably more "well-financed". I'm not saying that the 70% figure quoted above is accurate, but if it is - the "smart" money is on Pittsburgh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 (edited) Personally I never have and probably never will bet on games. Even if I were someone who would bet on games I would find the Steelers vs Pats game a very hard one to pick and be confident in winning. This game can just go either way. The only thing that may be safe is the over/under (not sure of what that is now). Very true. Betting on this game is not for the feint of heart. I would advise against it. The "smart" money is probably keeping it in your pocket for this one! Edited January 20, 2005 by rattsass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 as the week goes on, i find myself wanting to bet on pittsburgh more. could be my homerism in the way but i really think the steelers are going to inflict their will in this game. not sure if i'm going to pull the trigger yet. conversely, i have already given 4 atlanta homers at work 1.5 to 1 on a straight up bet. they all took me up on 20 for 30 wagers. if the eagles win, i win 80. if atlanta wins, i lose 120. there is still a few more days to the game and i'm hoping some of em want to up there bets or i find some more vick fans. its funny, its the first thing everyone of the atlanta homers brings up. they can't stop vick. vicks going to go wild. vick...blah, blah, blah. i'm sorry....i'm just not buying it. again, what usually happens when a dome team comes outdoors in the playoffs?? whats the winning percentage of the outdoor team in these games?? i would venture to say at least....75%. thats a percentage i like to wager behind. i do wonder what owens stupid a s s comments about guaranteeing a win will do, motivational wise for the falcons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 Wow. Someone above noted that 70% of the bets coming in are on New England, yet the line and the money line haven't moved. If that's true, that means that the bets coming in on NE are much smaller, on average, than the bets on Pittsburgh. This would imply that the "smart" money is on Pittsburgh. Either that, or the casinos have found a third party with which to hedge their books - probably some of the offshore casinos. Most of the offshore casinos cater to small-time bettors. That probably means that well over 70% of the bets placed are on NE, but the people betting on Pittsburgh are considerably more "well-financed". I'm not saying that the 70% figure quoted above is accurate, but if it is - the "smart" money is on Pittsburgh. 663019[/snapback] Sorry, should have mentioned this is an offshore's line. This is a tough one to gauge, but I won't be surprised if the line moves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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