louisville lip Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 What do you think the spread would have been if this game were played the week after Pittsburgh, using backups, beat Buffalo at Buffalo in a must-win game for the Bills, while NE, playing at home and using its starters for 3 quarters, beat the 49ers, the league's worst team, 21-7? The point spread is simply the linemaker's perception of how the public, which has a short memory and looks only at a team's most recent game, will view the game. The only reason NE is favored is because Roethlisberger looked like a rookie against the Jets. What was remarkable about the Colts-Pats game was that NE could manage only 6 points in 30 minutes against that defense! The media and the "wiseguys" have failed to mention that in touting the Pats for this weekend's game. If the Steelers don't hand the Pats 14 points like their predecessors did in 2001, their fans will be waving their "Terrible Towels" as the game ends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackass Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 I agree with your line of thinking. I still wouldn't bet against the Pats though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Watch the money. The bookmakers keep moving the line toward the Steelers. Originally Steelers +3 (-130). Now Steelers +3 (-115). Lotsa money coming in for New England. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Watch the money. The bookmakers keep moving the line toward the Steelers. Originally Steelers +3 (-130). Now Steelers +3 (-115). Lotsa money coming in for New England. 659999[/snapback] If the $$$ line is dropping, doesn't that mean it would be coming in on PIT? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawk37 Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Patriots 21 Pittsburg 10! as much as I hate the patriots I must admit their a good team and they get it done. They shut out an unstoppable Peyton Manning just think what their gonna do to the rookie big ben. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menudo Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Patriots 21 Pittsburg 10! as much as I hate the patriots I must admit their a good team and they get it done. They shut out an unstoppable Peyton Manning just think what their gonna do to the rookie big ben. 660014[/snapback] Hopefully the same thing they did the last time when Ben had no problems at all against them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steeler Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Patriots 21 Pittsburg 10! as much as I hate the patriots I must admit their a good team and they get it done. They shut out an unstoppable Peyton Manning just think what their gonna do to the rookie big ben. 660014[/snapback] There is a huge difference between the Colts and Steelers attack and they have to be stopped in different ways. IMO, it won't be as easy for BB to create a scheme to stop the Steelers smash mouth running game as it was to create a scheme to beat the Colts. The Steelers are going to lineup and try to run it down the Pats throats. I'm not saying the Pats definately won't be able to stop it (but very few teams have stopped it this year)... just that this game will be more about physical play and heart that a new scheme. The Pats have heart and can play physically and can win this game.... but it won't be due to some crazy new scheme he comes up with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steeler Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Watch the money. The bookmakers keep moving the line toward the Steelers. Originally Steelers +3 (-130). Now Steelers +3 (-115). Lotsa money coming in for New England.659999[/snapback] And they "smart money" is never wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Men In Tights Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 There is a huge difference between the Colts and Steelers attack and they have to be stopped in different ways. IMO, it won't be as easy for BB to create a scheme to stop the Steelers smash mouth running game as it was to create a scheme to beat the Colts. The Steelers are going to lineup and try to run it down the Pats throats. I'm not saying the Pats definately won't be able to stop it (but very few teams have stopped it this year)... just that this game will be more about physical play and heart that a new scheme. The Pats have heart and can play physically and can win this game.... but it won't be due to some crazy new scheme he comes up with. 660028[/snapback] Very well said, and the fact that the Steeler defense will be punching the Pats and Brady in the mouth as well. Like what was stated earlier, the Pats only scored 6 on the Indy defense in the first quarter, and I don't believe Dillon or the NE running game will wear down Pitt's defense like they did the Colts defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patsfan04 Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 (edited) Very well said, and the fact that the Steeler defense will be punching the Pats and Brady in the mouth as well. Like what was stated earlier, the Pats only scored 6 on the Indy defense in the first quarter, and I don't believe Dillon or the NE running game will wear down Pitt's defense like they did the Colts defense. 660088[/snapback] A Packers fan in tights talking about punching the Pats in the mouth. A lot of the faces have changed, but most of the faces are still there (since 2001). The Pats gameplan in that game was to stop the run and make Kordell beat them with the pass. Bettis had like -3 yards at the half. The gameplan this year will be the same idea, stop the run, and make Ben beat them. For your 2nd point, the Patriots main objective was to keep the ball away from the Indy offense, I think they did a good job of that. Edited January 18, 2005 by Patsfan04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 And they "smart money" is never wrong 660029[/snapback] The smart money is often wrong. The books have sold the public on a road favorite. Despite the fact that it seems everyone has already given this game to the Pats, I'm taking a team on a 15 game winning streak playing at home and getting the 3 points. That may not be the "smart" money, but it's a bet I can live with if I get it wrong. People are too hung up on what happened last weekend, which has little bearing on this game. If you go with a road favorite and you get beat you really feel like an ash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Men In Tights Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 A Packers fan in tights talking about punching the Pats in the mouth. A lot of the faces have changed, but most of the faces are still there (since 2001). The Pats gameplan in that game was to stop the run and make Kordell beat them with the pass. Bettis had like -3 yards at the half. The gameplan this year will be the same idea, stop the run, and make Ben beat them. For your 2nd point, the Patriots main objective was to keep the ball away from the Indy offense, I think they did a good job of that. 660098[/snapback] You can laugh all you want but what is the Pats record against the MIGHTY PACKERS in the Super Bowl? I know that was before BB was head boy, but still... I can't argue your second point, NE had a great game plan and controlled the clock. I just don't see them doing it against Pitt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunysteelfly76 Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 A lot of the faces have changed, but most of the faces are still there (since 2001). The Pats gameplan in that game was to stop the run and make Kordell beat them with the pass. Bettis had like -3 yards at the half. 660098[/snapback] Don't you think a more relevant statistic would be from a more recent meeting, like week 8 of this season? Just in case you were wondering, Bettis and Staley combined for 190 yards rushing in that game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 There is a huge difference between the Colts and Steelers attack and they have to be stopped in different ways. IMO, it won't be as easy for BB to create a scheme to stop the Steelers smash mouth running game as it was to create a scheme to beat the Colts. The Steelers are going to lineup and try to run it down the Pats throats. I'm not saying the Pats definately won't be able to stop it (but very few teams have stopped it this year)... just that this game will be more about physical play and heart that a new scheme. The Pats have heart and can play physically and can win this game.... but it won't be due to some crazy new scheme he comes up with. 660028[/snapback] i haven't counted the steelers out, by any means...but this sounds like a pretty unconvincing rationalization to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 i haven't counted the steelers out, by any means...but this sounds like a pretty unconvincing rationalization to me. 660125[/snapback] Steelers == 9-0 at home, 11-1 in the AFC, on a 15 game winning streak, the QB has never lost a start, and Cowher (even as much as I don't like his sideline antics) is one of the most successful coaches in the league 10 years running. And they beat the team coming to town this season. They should be favored at home. That's the rationale going in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Steelers == 9-0 at home, 11-1 in the AFC, on a 15 game winning streak, the QB has never lost a start, and Cowher (even as much as I don't like his sideline antics) is one of the most successful coaches in the league 10 years running. And they beat the team coming to town this season. They should be favored at home. That's the rationale going in. 660141[/snapback] they also looked like sh*t (offensively, at least) on saturday and deserved to lose to the jets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinpig Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 What do you think the spread would have been if this game were played the week after Pittsburgh, using backups, beat Buffalo at Buffalo in a must-win game for the Bills, while NE, playing at home and using its starters for 3 quarters, beat the 49ers, the league's worst team, 21-7? The point spread is simply the linemaker's perception of how the public, which has a short memory and looks only at a team's most recent game, will view the game. The only reason NE is favored is because Roethlisberger looked like a rookie against the Jets. What was remarkable about the Colts-Pats game was that NE could manage only 6 points in 30 minutes against that defense! The media and the "wiseguys" have failed to mention that in touting the Pats for this weekend's game. If the Steelers don't hand the Pats 14 points like their predecessors did in 2001, their fans will be waving their "Terrible Towels" as the game ends. 659940[/snapback] Your overall point is valid--but don't use week 17 to prove it. Those games were both meaningless, and even the short-sighted public ignored them. You are right though, after the Pit gift-win on Saturday, but before the NE game against Ind, lines were posted at some books for both Pit/Ind and Pit/NE. So the answer to your first question is Pit was listed as a 1.5 to 2 point favorite over NE. [Get this--Ind was also listed as a 3 point favorite over Pit.] When the Pats demolished Ind on Sunday, the oddsmakers knew that all that Ind money would turn to NE money and reversed the line to NE by 2, which the public immediately bet up to 3. The reason the Pats are favored is more because of the way NE played on Sunday (without Seymour), and not so much about how bad Roethy looked on Saturday. How is Pit going to get into the end zone if Ind couldn't? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skippy Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 Your point is very true. The odds are set by the book to get even money on both sides. The book doesn't care who wins or by how much. They just try to set the points where they are going to get even action on both sides. All the book is interested in is the juice from people making their bets. Now last week sure did move the line. I would think that this game would have came in pretty close to pick'em had the Pats not crushed Indy and the Steelers offense looked pretty bad against the Jets. I expect the line to tighten a little as more people that are thinking like the original poster start to put out some money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balzac Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 Hopefully the same thing they did the last time when Ben had no problems at all against them. 660022[/snapback] why was that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bill2 Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 Don't you think a more relevant statistic would be from a more recent meeting, like week 8 of this season? Just in case you were wondering, Bettis and Staley combined for 190 yards rushing in that game. 660116[/snapback] when this sundays game is over the PATS will have more rushing yards than the steelers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steeler Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 i haven't counted the steelers out, by any means...but this sounds like a pretty unconvincing rationalization to me. 660125[/snapback] I'm not trying to rationalize or convince anyone of anything.... not sure why you have a problem with the comments anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steeler Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 they also looked like sh*t (offensively, at least) on saturday and deserved to lose to the jets 660155[/snapback] They actually moved the ball at will against the Jets in the 2nd half, but they also had three turnovers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steeler Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 when this sundays game is over the PATS will have more rushing yards than the steelers. 660219[/snapback] I doubt it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 I doubt it. 660411[/snapback] not a chance in hell the pats outrush the steelers. i doubt it to steeler. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bill2 Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 not a chance in hell the pats outrush the steelers. i doubt it to steeler. 660448[/snapback] just wait-belichick will devise a game plan to stop the run-because he knows Ben can't beat them! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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