Lamont Jordon Projections?

[Big Score 1]

Speaking of last season, do you think that maybe a reason Norv catered to the pass so much was because of the caliber of the RBs?

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Nope!

 

Watching the Raiders last year, it was definitely their Swiss Cheese Defense that forced Norv to heavily favor the passing game. They were always playing from behind.

 

After trading away their starting Middle LB and one of their starting CB's, I don't see any reason to expect much improvement for that D either.

[Avernus]

Just as with Michael Bennett, Randy Moss won't be running the ball for Jordan.

 

Many people had Bennett as a 1st round pick last year and then he was injured.

 

There are too many questions with Jordan. I'll stick to the known RBs, but that's just me.

 

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...the point is...whoever ran the ball was successful...and when Moss went down, the ground game wasn't AS good as it was when he was in...

 

I had whichever Viking back that started for the 1st 5 or 6 weeks in my lineup and that back was usually a flat out stud in my scoring system...

[Chavez]

How isn't he a sleeper? People have him everywhere on their boards.

 

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He isn't a sleeper because I'd bet most people have him solidly in the 2nd tier of backs; unless he has a Holmesian/Tomlinsonian year, his value shouldn't be too awful different from where he will be picked in most drafts, unless someone REALLY reaches or he really falls.

[Goopster24]

He isn't a sleeper because I'd bet most people have him solidly in the 2nd tier of backs; unless he has a Holmesian/Tomlinsonian year, his value shouldn't be too awful different from where he will be picked in most drafts, unless someone REALLY reaches or he really falls.

 

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Yea, I guess you are right. That makes sense. I just think so many people have so many different opinions on him and I think he is poised for a better year than most people think. That's all I'm saying, thanx for your opinion, it better clears mine.

[WaterMan]

Yea, I guess you are right. That makes sense. I just think so many people have so many different opinions on him and I think he is poised for a better year than most people think. That's all I'm saying, thanx for your opinion, it better clears mine.

 

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That was like calling Barlow a sleeper last year.

[Return Of S&B]

More fuel to the fire....this is from PFW

 

The fact that Norv Turner had RB LaMont Jordan pegged for his Raiders offense early in free agency comes as no surprise, considering the history the two have together. When Turner coached the Redskins, he told PFW, he used to watch Jordan during spring practice and games while the running back was at Maryland. Turner and his staff also scouted him while Turner was offensive coordinator in San Diego, rating him as “a real top-level player.” Then came the recommendation of Jimmy Raye, the RB coach in Oakland, who previously held the same title with the Jets. “The fact that Jimmy coached him three years with the Jets, knew him personally — what he was all about — was important,” Turner told PFW. “He has an advantage over any of the new runners in this league. He’s played four years and been able to learn from Curtis Martin. He knows what it’s like to play in the league and knows what it’s like to play 16 games. He was a big contributor to that team. We think he’s an awfully talented player.”

 

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/The+W...tm?mode=afcwest

 

Coming from an offensive coach who has worked with some of the best RBs in the past decade (E Smith, S Davis, L Tomlinson, R Williams) I would think Jordan has some potential to be big this year.

 

Personally, I have been a season ticket holder for Maryland Football for 12+ years and I have yet to see, in person, any college RB dominate a game like Lamont did multiple times while he played for the Terps. He's the real deal.

 

Now considering this is fantasy football forum, i wouldn't reach for him over more "proven" backs like Tiki, Dillon, Lewis....but I would definitely snag him in the late 2nd round as my RB2 because he has the potential to be a RB1 this year.

[Clubfoothead]

More fuel to the fire....this is from PFW

 

The fact that Norv Turner had RB LaMont Jordan pegged for his Raiders offense early in free agency comes as no surprise, considering the history the two have together. When Turner coached the Redskins, he told PFW, he used to watch Jordan during spring practice and games while the running  back was at Maryland. Turner and his staff also scouted him while Turner was offensive coordinator in San Diego, rating him as “a real top-level player.” Then came the recommendation of Jimmy Raye, the RB coach in Oakland, who previously held the same title with the Jets. “The fact that Jimmy coached him three years with the Jets, knew him personally — what he was all about — was important,” Turner told PFW. “He has an advantage over any of the new runners in this league. He’s played four years and been able to learn from Curtis Martin. He knows what it’s like to play in the league and knows what it’s like to play 16 games. He was a big contributor to that team. We think he’s an awfully talented player.”

 

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/The+W...tm?mode=afcwest

 

Coming from an offensive coach who has worked with some of the best RBs in the past decade (E Smith, S Davis, L Tomlinson, R Williams) I would think Jordan has some potential to be big this year.

 

Personally, I have been a season ticket holder for Maryland Football for 12+ years and I have yet to see, in person, any college RB dominate a game like Lamont did multiple times while he played for the Terps.  He's the real deal.

 

Now considering this is fantasy football forum, i wouldn't reach for him over more "proven" backs like Tiki, Dillon, Lewis....but I would definitely snag him in the late 2nd round as my RB2 because he has the potential to be a RB1 this year.

 

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While I agree with you, yer a freaking Maryland season ticket holder and go by the Return of the S & B so you might have a slight bias. But I also think yer right. Late second, early third.

[Brentastic]

Just because he is a first year feature back doesn't mean he is gonna underachieve. And people really do overplay the schedule idea. If he is facing a good team, more often than not him and the rest of the team will step up their game. Raiders should be decent this year. I think Jordan is a huge sleeper and I'm def looking to pick him up in my draft.

 

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I said he will underachieve because of both reasons combined not each on their own. And BTW, I'm not saying the EOS is the end all be all, but when decifering between two comparable players, it does factor in more than you think. Obviously, what a team does in the offseason to boost/hinder their respective defense makes a difference in how the rankings actually end up, but overall the EOS is a very useful tool. Guys like LT2 etc... EOS will have little if any effect on their draft position, but a guy like Lamont Jordan, definitely. You'd be foolish not to consider it!

[Return Of S&B]

 

While I agree with you, yer a freaking Maryland season ticket holder and go by the Return of the S & B so you might have a slight bias.  But I also think yer right.  Late second, early third.

 

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[Return Of S&B]

Personally, I think the trend of Norv pounding the ball at the goal line and Kerry Collin's historically low td totals (he throws the deep ball well - once you get in the red zone, it's not a "deep ball" anymore) collide to give Moss a nice season yardage-wise but a disappointing one as far as TDs go - TDs that Lamont Jordan will get. Plus about 300 carries.

 

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I agree with this assessment...Contrary to popular opinion, I believe Jordan will profit more from Norv's offense than Moss will. Moss will get his catches and yards, but Jordan will see a lot of goal-line carries and carries (and catches) within the red-zone.

 

As for the Crockett factor, he is in his early 30s, and isnt being paid the big bucks, Jordan is the one they forked over the dough for. Unless Jordan has a problem getting in the endzone on the goal-line (which he wont) i see him getting all the goal-line carries

[Phazool]

IMO, I think Lamont is capable of leading the Tier 3 RB category.

 

I think he and Curtis will have similar numbers by the end of the season.

 

14-1600yds 12-15 Td's Combined rush and pass

 

 

 

 

(what do you guys think of the Jets adding Blaylock as their backup to Martin? New Topic maybe?)

[Return Of S&B]

Consider the rushing stats for the 4 leading rushers in 2004 for the Raiders

 

Zereoue--112-425-3.8

Wheatley-085-327-3.8

Crockett-048-232-4.8

Fargas---035-126-3.6

 

If you take a look at the last numbers listed you see that 3 out of the top 4 Raider RBs in 2004 averaged 3.6-3.8 yards per carry while the lone RB that averaged over 4.0 was a FULLBACK, that is terrible. From the stats above it should be clear that the Raiders abandoned the run primarily because their running game was simply INEFFECTIVE.

 

I am not saying the Jordan will be savior to the running game but for people to make statements like Norv abandoned the run last year because they were always behind is not completely true. Norv often had to abandon the run last year because he clearly did not have a running back that could produce.

 

Unlike last year, the Raiders have a true "workhorse" back in Lamont Jordan.

[Big Score 1]

Zereoue--112-425-3.8

Wheatley-085-327-3.8

Crockett-048-232-4.8

Fargas---035-126-3.6

 

If you take a look at the last numbers listed you see that 3 out of the top 4 Raider RBs in 2004 averaged 3.6-3.8 yards per carry while the lone RB that averaged over 4.0 was a FULLBACK, that is terrible.  From the stats above it should be clear that the Raiders abandoned the run primarily because their running game was simply INEFFECTIVE. 

 

I am not saying the Jordan will be savior to the running game but for people to make statements like Norv abandoned the run last year because they were always behind is not completely true.  Norv often had to abandon the run last year because he clearly did not have a running back that could produce.

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I'm kinda going with you here....except for one thing.

 

When you're down by two or more TD's in the 2nd half and you've got a Swiss Cheese D, you can't afford to stay with the run game.

 

It wouldn't have mattered if Norv had a back averaging what Clinton Portis did in Denver (5.3?), that Swiss Cheese D is a killer.

 

Look what happened with Green Bay last year. They had an awesome run game with Green, Davenport & Fisher. But their play calling favored the passing game.

 

Why?

 

Their D was their achilles heel and far to often the Pack had to abondon the run for the pass, while playing catch up.

 

Here's a hypothetical but very plausible game scenario.

 

Raiders ~ vs ~ Chiefs

 

2nd half opens with KC getting the ball already up by 14. They go down and score chewing up 8 minutes of the 3rd qtr. Raiders come back with Jordan & the ground attack themselves and score, but now there's only 2 minutes left in the third and they're still down by two TD's. KC gets the ball back and scores again. Quick drive this time and the 3rd qtr ends. End result...Raiders still down by 14 and the 3rd qtr gone.

 

Raiders get the ball to open the 4th qtr and go to the ground game again getting in Field Goal range before being stopped. Sea Bass splits the uprights but now there's only 10 minutes left in the game. KC goes to their excellent ball control, clock eating ground game with Preist Holmes / Larry Johnson and score again.

 

Hmmmmm........now there's 3 minutes left with the Raiders now down by 18.

 

The point is, to be able to afford the luxury of sticking with the ground game, you've got to have at least an average D.

 

An example of a team that was able to stick with their run game despite an awful ypc, was the Washington Redskins from last year.

 

The reason Washington was usually in all their games, despite poor QB play and Gibbs using the snot out of Portis, even though he was only chugging along at a 3.8 clip, was because they had one heckuva D.

 

The Raiders, in no way shape or form, have anything closely resembling a decent D....let alone an average D.

 

I just don't see how Norv is going to get Jordan enough carries to produce some of the numbers people are projecting here.

 

And I really don't see Al Davis signing off on acquiring Randy Moss to pair with Jerry Porter / Ronald Curry and have strong armed Captain Cocktail tossing the pill, but all of a sudden Jordan becomes the focal point of the Raiders offense.

 

I just don't see the logic here.

[Big Score 1]

Don't get me wrong now. I'm not saying Jordan isn't capable of being a productive, to even very productive back.

 

I just don't think the situation he is in, will allow for him to produce the numbers some are projecting.

[Rovers]

Your scenario says that Oaklnad doesnt score much in the first half.... unlikely, I think. The best way to improve yer defense is to keep them off the field. Turner knows that, and this team should be able to keep up in shootouts.... he'll still run to keep the safeties up. He abandoned the run last year because it didn't work.... with a safty doubling on Moss alla time, it should open some things up for Jordan.

 

I still figure Jordan as a shoe-in for top 15, with a shot at top ten.

[Avernus]

Your scenario says that Oaklnad doesnt score much in the first half.... unlikely, I think. The best way to improve yer defense is to keep them off the field. Turner knows that, and this team should be able to keep up in shootouts.... he'll still run to keep the safeties up. He abandoned the run last year because it didn't work.... with a safty doubling on Moss alla time, it should open some things up for Jordan.

 

I still figure Jordan as a shoe-in for top 15, with a shot at top ten.

 

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with all the RBBC going on...I was thinking a likely top 10 with an outside chance at breaking top 5 if certain backs go down....

 

but an 8th overall RB ranking is right around where I have him finishing...

[Big Score 1]

Your scenario says that Oaklnad doesnt score much in the first half.... unlikely, I think.

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No it didn't Rovers. My scenario had Oakland down by 2 TD's at the beginning of the 3rd qtr. The score could've been 28 to 14.

this team should be able to keep up in shootouts....

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Uhhhhh...exactly how does a team keep up in shoot outs.....with the ground game?

He abandoned the run last year because it didn't work

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Nope! He abonded the run because the Raiders D put the O in the position of having to come from behind a lot.

he'll still run to keep the safeties up

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Agreed 100%. This of course will open it up for Moss, Porter, Curry, Gabriel and Teyo Johnson

with a safty doubling on Moss alla time, it should open some things up for Jordan.

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Wait a minute.......I thought you just said Norv would still run, to keep the Safties up.

I still figure Jordan as a shoe-in for top 15, with a shot at top ten.

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I'm pretty sure that Jordan has top 10+ talent in him. Again....I just don't think the team he's landed with, is going to allow him to showcase it this year.

[Big Score 1]

with all the RBBC going on...I was thinking a likely top 10 with an outside chance at breaking top 5 if certain backs go down....

 

but an 8th overall RB ranking is right around where I have him finishing...

 

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Certainly anything is possible....but holy smokes...that's one ballsy prediction Avernus

[Return Of S&B]

Raiders ~ vs ~ Chiefs

 

2nd half opens with KC getting the ball already up by 14.

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This is where i have a problem with your logic. Why is KC up by 14 when the 2nd half is open when the Raiders arguably have an offense that can score with the best of them this year. Everybody knows KC can score some points, but they have no defense....I see Oakland in the same scenerio....so logically, the Raiders should be able to match KCs points TD with TD, FG with FG. I dont see the Raiders falling behind by 14 in any game this year and in some games they may be ahead by 14.

 

Did Minnesota abandon the run all the time last year? Their defense was ranked close to the 30s as well...similar situation you would think...but yet their starting RBs (whoever the RB of the month was) would consistently put up solid fantasy points....i dont see how the Oakland situation will be different then the Minnesota scenerio last year. Sure Moss will be the primary target in high scoring games, but because of Moss, the running game will be wide open, and Lamont will be eating up yards (whether running or receiving) up the middle and down the sideline.

 

What about Indianapolis....another team with a high powered offense but terrible defense....have you ever heard of Edgerrin James? Isnt he going top-5 in most drafts this year? Indi is another situation that is similar to Oakland's this year, they have to outscore their opponents to win games....and they do that with both the passing and running games.

 

The simple fact that RBs like Priest and James are taken in the 1st round of all fantasy football drafts completely negates your point about a team with a high powered offense and low powered defense will abandon the run and RB fantasy points on such a team will suffer...quite the contrary happens on many cases because of all the scoring going on, the primary RB cashes in on the fantasy points as well as QBs , WRs and TEs.

Edited July 29, 2005 by Return Of S&B

[Avernus]

Certainly anything is possible....but holy smokes...that's one ballsy prediction Avernus 

 

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nah, top 5 can mean alot of things...sometimes you'll see a player in the top 5 that really didn't play like a top 5 back...but played every single game...

 

especially WR's...

 

I always end up looking at the previous years top 5 and be like....wait..he was a top 5 back???...

 

It would be something like that...and when I say top 5...I really mean the 5th best

[Big Score 1]

This is where i have a problem with your logic.  Why is KC up by 14 when the 2nd half is open when the Raiders arguably have an offense that can score with the best of them this year.

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Ok....to begin with, I said this;

 

Here's a hypothetical but very plausible game scenario.

 

Raiders ~ vs ~ Chiefs

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Please take note of the word hypothetical. When you quoted me, you decided to leave that sentence out. Don't try and twist my posts you bad boy.

 

While I agree that the Raiders will have a decent to very good offense this year, you can't overlook the fact that their D was absolutely atrocious last year....and they did nothiong to improve it, aside from trading away their starting MLB & one of their starting CB's (although trading away Buchannon could end up being addition by subtraction, depending on how the Rook, Fabian Washington, pans out).

 

So if the team they're playing against stops them on a few series in the first half and they have a high powered offense, the likelihood is strong that the Raiders D will give up a score or two.

 

Everybody knows KC can score some points,  but they have no defense

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Somebody hasn't been paying attention to who the Chiefs drafted with their 1st pick and what FA's they've signed, have they?

 

But if you've got a bone to pick with KC being used in the hypothetical situation I described.....if it'll make you feel better, go ahead and substitute Philly or the Pats, for KC.

 

I dont see the Raiders falling behind by 14 in any game this year

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I can see you're a homer and all, by your board name, but I hope you're kidding. But if you really, really believe that, I hope you handle disappointment well. I'm about 99.99% certain that there will be at least one game where are they down by a couple of TD's and I'm about 98.99% certain, that there'll be more than just one.

 

Did Minnesota abandon the run all the time last year?  Their defense was ranked close to the 30s as well...similar situation you would think...but yet their starting RBs (whoever the RB of the month was) would consistently put up solid fantasy points

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You need to check your facts here. To begin with their D, while by no stretch of the imagination good, was definitely ahead of Oakland's D. In the games Minny did fall behind in, they heavily favored the pass ~ vs ~ the run. Check the game logs.

 

What about Indianapolis....another team with a high powered offense but terrible defense

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Again check your facts. Indy had a middling D last year.....not putrid....ala the Oakland's, San Fran's or Tennessee's of the NFL.

 

The simple fact that RBs like Priest and James are taken in the 1st round of all fantasy football drafts completely negates your point about a team with a high powered offense and low powered defense will abandon the run and RB fantasy points on such a team will suffer...quite the contrary happens on many cases because of all the scoring going on, the primary RB cashes in on the fantasy points as well as QBs , WRs and TEs.

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Hmmmm......going with that, how do we explain last years offense for Green Bay? Stud(s) at RB, but awful D. What did we see?

 

Lastly, you're not seriously trying to compare Jordan to Priest / Edge are you? While I think Jordan is probably going to end up being a very good back, I'm not ready to put him in the same class as Edge & Priest, until he's proven he belongs there.

 

Also, the lines that both those backs run behind, are superior to Oaklands O'line.

 

Especially KC's.

 

In Indy you've got one of the best in the business at QB. Manning can read a D in the blink of an eye. He'll check out of a pass play to a run play, to take advantage of what he sees and Edge has the skills to make good on it.

 

While Captain Cocktail has a fine deep ball, he ain't never gonna be confused with having the grey matter like Peyton Manning.

 

When it comes right down to it, we each have different view points and each of sees opposite oportunities / directions for Oakland's O. I don't think either one of us is going to change their thoughts. But that's fine, because that's what message boards are for. Open discussion with differing opinions.

 

We will just have to agree, to disagree...........

 

until the season is over that is...........and then one of us will have bragging rights.

[Chavez]

When it comes right down to it, we each have different view points and each of sees opposite oportunities / directions for Oakland's O. I don't think either one of us is going to change their thoughts. But that's fine, because that's what message boards are for. Open discussion with differing opinions. 

 

We will just have to agree, to disagree...........

 

until the season is over that is...........and then one of us will have bragging rights. 

 

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BigScore gets it.

 

IMO, I have my ideas set already; but the MBs make me really hash out why I have player x ranked where I do - and often it makes me take a second look at someone else based on somebody's opinion of them.

 

For that alone, it's worth the time spent here.

[Big Score 1]

 

BigScore gets it.

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Even a Blind Squirrel finds a nut every now & then

[Rovers]

Even a Blind Squirrel finds a nut every now & then

 

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just make sure it's a nut, not a nugget!

[Chavez]

I just recall when Keyshawn got traded to the Bucs and there was discussion about what he #s he was going to end up with; I said I thought he'd be good for 60-70 catches, 900ish yds and about 8 tds; some dude, for some reason, took it utterly personally and basically called me an ass hole for projecting him that low. Didn't see much of the guy after the season ended and Keyshawn had 71-874-8.