xMRogers Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 I've had some conversations where everyone says "no question next year - clear cut LT is the pick". makes sense....except if I get the top slot, probably won't be picking him for the same reason I had him number one on my board this year (drafted 6th, so didn't matter, but told the guy at 1 to take him - he took SA instead). Reason is : people have career years and they are that - the best year of their career. For the top players, this means record breaking sorts of years. SA had his last year. LJ may or may not have had his last year. Manning had his that 49 TD year - eveyryone thought "next year, 50" - I said then...umm, isn't it much more likely he does 30 since 49 was a record" LT is having his this year - he's going to be worse next year. Now, his "worse" may still be the best player, but someone else will probably step up. (Possibly LJ again, or could be a young gun). Point is - just don't think it's that cut and dried. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 romo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Cut and dried for me: LT please. TIA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Tomlinson has now had several "career" seasons in a row. I don't see how you can argue against him as the best professional football player, let alone the best fantasy player, out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Pinner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Point is - just don't think it's that cut and dried. eh, it's about as cut and dried as you can get. of course, that's no guarantee LT actually performs as the #1 fantasy player. but he's got a better shot at it than anyone else, by quite a bit. hence, you'd have to basically be an idiot to take anyone OTHER than LT first overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 eh, it's about as cut and dried as you can get. of course, that's no guarantee LT actually performs as the #1 fantasy player. but he's got a better shot at it than anyone else, by quite a bit. hence, you'd have to basically be an idiot to take anyone OTHER than LT first overall. Well, he is an Eagles fan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RFFL Chump Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 LT and I really wish I had taken him this year with my first pick.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Next Generation Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 I hear ya, but it's LT. He has been the model of consistency for a fantasy RB since he got into the league. I think he's been top 5 for the last 5 years and top 7 his first year (something like that). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Point is - just don't think it's that cut and dried. Well, I had LT ranked as #1 going into this year. But, based on what I saw this year I'll have to really spend some time evaluating this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rebdog Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 the thing with LT2 is that his success has as much to do with his offense, his QB, and his TE. as long as there are no injuries or player losses then you can expect 20 TDs again next year. Rivers is fabulous at converting on 3rd down. its not like Tomlinson does it all on his own. Rivers doesn't get enough credit for SD's success. when defenses try to stack against the run, Rivers makes the throws downfield to back them off. i go Tomlinson for sure next year. and don't forget, Trent Green is getting older which doesn't help LJ and Alexander already got his contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 eh, it's about as cut and dried as you can get. of course, that's no guarantee LT actually performs as the #1 fantasy player. but he's got a better shot at it than anyone else, by quite a bit. hence, you'd have to basically be an idiot to take anyone OTHER than LT first overall. That's what people said after last year about SA. I think next season is going to be very interesting. LT is getting a lot of touches, and will probably have a Sb long season for the first time in his career. I think that will make a difference. LJ is getting too many carries, regardless of what he says. SA will be fresh after this season, but is getting older and could start to succumb to the injury bug. The point is that I think it will be as random as it was this year. I'll probably be leaning towards LJ, as my man-crush has yet to subside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 That's what people said after last year about SA. uhhh...no? just as many people had him ranked 2nd or 3rd as had him first. not remotely comparable to the clear-cut #1 status of LT going into next season. I think next season is going to be very interesting. LT is getting a lot of touches, and will probably have a Sb long season for the first time in his career. I think that will make a difference. LJ is getting too many carries, regardless of what he says. SA will be fresh after this season, but is getting older and could start to succumb to the injury bug. The point is that I think it will be as random as it was this year. I'll probably be leaning towards LJ, as my man-crush has yet to subside. it will not be like last year. barring anything unforeseen at this point, LT will go first in 90+% of fantasy drafts next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 11, 2006 Author Share Posted December 11, 2006 looks like only one person sees it the way I do (and beleive me, if I actually end up drafting number 1, not sure I won't take LT but will be looking at others hard to find someone ready to explode). Here's kindof a test - where would you bet $100 right now in this wager : Top FF Scorer next season will be : LT vs Anyone else (field) I'd bet field Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 11, 2006 Author Share Posted December 11, 2006 but I do agree it won't be quite like this year where the three guys were really bunched up. Next year, you got the 1, then a tier right below. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Here's kindof a test - where would you bet $100 right now in this wager : Top FF Scorer next season will be : LT vs Anyone else (field) I'd bet field yeah, i'd probably bet field too. but your choices with the first pick aren't "LT" and "everyone else". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 uhhh...no? just as many people had him ranked 2nd or 3rd as had him first. not remotely comparable to the clear-cut #1 status of LT going into next season. I was unaware you had this data available already. Mea Culpa. Your powers of precognition continue to impress me. it will not be like last year. barring anything unforeseen at this point, LT will go first in 90+% of fantasy drafts next year. So say we all. (not including me, of course) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 That's what people said after last year about SA. Was there not post after post after post about which one of the Big 3 should be taken #1? I don't think SA was a consenus by any means (in fact it seems as more people leaned to LJ). Next year's LT will be the #1 pick, just like the years of Priest Holmes/Marshall Faulk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 It is absolutely true that players that end up as #1 in their position rarely repeat the next year. But - approaching a draft is not so much trying to pick a player that you believe is a lock to be #1 but that offers the greatest combination of low risk and high production and it is hard to argue that even in a drop off year that LT won't perform very well and probably is as low risk of a player that you could possibly find next summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Next Generation Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 looks like only one person sees it the way I do (and beleive me, if I actually end up drafting number 1, not sure I won't take LT but will be looking at others hard to find someone ready to explode). Here's kindof a test - where would you bet $100 right now in this wager : Top FF Scorer next season will be : LT vs Anyone else (field) I'd bet field I can just see it now, with the #1 overall pick, I pick the field! You don't want to gamble with your first round pick. If you get the #1 pick, you're trying to pick a guy that will be top 5, not necessarily #1 overall (that would be a bonus). So, who has the best chance of anyone to be top 5? LT bar none. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Was there not post after post after post about which one of the Big 3 should be taken #1? I don't think SA was a consenus by any means (in fact it seems as more people leaned to LJ). Next year's LT will be the #1 pick, just like the years of Priest Holmes/Marshall Faulk. IIRC, that was later. This time last year it was all SA hype. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 I think that next year's draft will mirror this year's in a lot of ways... not the order of the players picked necessarily, but in the idea that the top 3 picks should be agreed upon by most owners, and after that its much more up in the air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 I was unaware you had this data available already. Mea Culpa. Your powers of precognition continue to impress me. well that data is sort of available everywhere how many debates were there here and everywhere about who was number 1 between LJ, LT, and SA? there was CLEARLY no consensus #1, and even if there was i don't think it was shaun alexander as you assert. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 11, 2006 Author Share Posted December 11, 2006 DMD's point is a good one, especially for next year - while I don't think LT repeats, I don't know who takes over (yet) and barring injury I do know that LT will be top 3-5, so LT would be the "safe" pick. But compared to last year, the LT angle is a bit accurate if you count SA and LJ combined as LT in that they both came off monster years and was hard to choose between the two, while LT had a "normal" for him year (and had the QB issue) so people saw him mostly as the 2/3 pick. Next year, a guy at the 2/3/4 pick could be the guy.....just gotta figure out who it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gremlyn Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 The real question should be... Would you still pick LT as the first pick if he ends up on the Madden cover? I'd think twice if that were to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.