Atlanta Cracker Posted May 31, 2008 Share Posted May 31, 2008 i plan on bidding out of the gate but do i really want to bid 40% of my total one player. so many first rounders - alexander, johnson, jackson, etc. in redraft leagues become busts. i think i would be worried about pinning my season on one guy. In my local auction I have changed strategies every year on the fly. One year I was conservative. One year I bought 2 studs and filled gaps. One year I split the difference and every year I either won the league, made the playoffs, or was close. The key is your gut instinct for the players/season and having a great feel for the fill in guys you get for $1 or $2 that make or break you. If you blow your cap on 2 guys you dang well better have a good valuation of lower players who can really help... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 31, 2008 Share Posted May 31, 2008 that really happens? so a barber could fetch more value than a westbrook because of panic?! ick. shoot me if i get stuck in that position. It's a regular occurence in auctions. Some guys see a few players go in front of them, or they get outbid a couple of times, and they see their bankroll but no players on their rosters while other teams are being populated. Count on it happeneing, and make sure you don't end up being one of the suckers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 31, 2008 Share Posted May 31, 2008 i plan on bidding out of the gate but do i really want to bid 40% of my total one player. You may. 40% of your cap isn't out of line at all for a stud - and leagues get won with those guys at the right price. Determine what your squeal point is for players, and then don't talk yourself out of it getting caught up in the heat of bidding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tford Posted May 31, 2008 Share Posted May 31, 2008 One thing I like to do is throw out a mid range guy or two early. Generally, the studs get put up first. But where you can burn a couple guys who don't have their player caps set properly is to catch them off guard with this. One of two things usually happens. 1) You get your mid-range guy at a discount because guys are viewing the mid-range guy as inferior to the guys left on the board and they are saving cash. 2) Bidders go nuts in an effort to win a player and he gets overvalued. Either way, this serves your purpose. The only catch is that you need to be confident in your valuations of players. Don't fall victim to your own trap. I did this last year by putting up Jerricho Cotchery as the first WR auctioned off. He went for double what he should have and later WRs like Boldin and Burress went for much cheaper. Have fun in your auction league. I find they are a great way to spice up otherwise cookiecutter redraft leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted May 31, 2008 Share Posted May 31, 2008 As others have said, be flexible. My main league has been using an auction format for ten years and each year things turn out a little bit differently. Create/Use some sort of cheat-cheat so that you have what you consider to be the fair-market value of the players and allow you to determine when a player up for bid is either under- or over-valued. However, as others have indicated, be prepared to pay more than you had planned for players if their position/tier starts becoming scarce. Also, don't make the mistake of continuing to buy players just because according to your cheat-sheet they are undervalued if you already have enough players at that position. Bluffing and bidding up a player that you don't want in order to trick somebody into spending additional money for that player is a lot of fun (that is, until the guy you were bidding against finally says "you can have him".) Especially don't get into a fake bidding war when it is obvious to everybody that you don't really want the player--for example, a number of years ago, one of my league-mates already had two high-tier WRs and then started bidding on another top WR... after a few minutes everybody basically said "he's yours" and the guy ended up spending about 50% of his salary-cap on three WRs. He didn't do very well that season. Make sure that you keep track of what everybody else is doing so that you know where they are in terms of positions needed to be filled and salary still available. In my local we use a spreadsheet that gets updated with each new player bought and use a projector to display the spreadsheet on the wall. It's a nice way to do it if you have access to a computer projector and you are drafting in person. Also, with respect to organizing the auction, I would try to schedule a break half-way through the auction so that people can eat food or something similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted May 31, 2008 Share Posted May 31, 2008 I am starting in an auction league for the first time. How do I draft my team? Go for 2 high paying studs? An even well balanced team? Or Stay budget, avoid the studs, and try to get good value at the end when people run out of money? There is no definitive answer to any of those and people in all camps, FYI. This year, I happen to think a more balanced strat makes sense, esp w/RBs. OK DMD where are the Huddle "classic" articles/threads......i think we had a pretty good one going last year, in fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted May 31, 2008 Share Posted May 31, 2008 (edited) Spend $1 each on a QB2, RB5, WR5, TE2, K and Def. That's 37.5% of your roster spots for only 6% of your cap, leaving you $94 on QB1, RB1-4, WR1-4 and TE1...an average of $9.40 for each player. Unless fortume smiles on you and/or you make a deft QB move, I disagree with $1 on QB2. Few good-to-great QBs play all 16 games and if your "stud" goes down, you are likely stuck with somebody like Pennington or Harrington as your QB. No thx. Agree on the rest, although I might occasionally spend $2 (tops) on a top 5 D if it falls. It wouldn't surprise me to see the top 4 RBs draw 50% of a team's cap space or more as the winning bid.In a league full of morons. Seriously spending 50%+ on any one player is IMO stupid. Ditto 30%+ for a top WR. That fills your starting skill spots for around $80 to $85, and you'll have impact guys. That leaves you $15 to $20 to fill your other 11 spots....and that's one big reason why. Another is putting too many eggs in one basket (what if he disappoints, gets hurt, etc etc). OTOH, a top QB is easily worth $15 and probably go for more like $20ish. Edited May 31, 2008 by BeeR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted May 31, 2008 Share Posted May 31, 2008 (edited) The main thing - don't get emotionally involved in the bidding, such as getting into a bidding war for a player that someone is obviously willing to way overpay for, and don't get suckered into trying to play a bid-up game for those guys, trying to stick another owner with overpaying for a player, it may be you that gets stuck with the guy when the other owner gets cold feet or pulls out after running you up. That's a sure way to start your season in the bottom half of the league, and fighting an uphill battle just to break even by midyear.Good advice. Easier said than done sometimes though. that really happens? so a barber could fetch more value than a westbrook because of panic?!Well a guy ranked say 6th might fetch more than a guy ranked 4th, sure. But IMO it's rare for wider gaps, ie the 10th ranked guy costing more than 4th, that kind of thing. As others have said, be flexible. Also, don't make the mistake of continuing to buy players just because according to your cheat-sheet they are undervalued if you already have enough players at that position. These are both worth repeating. To add to the 2d, more generally, it's important to remind yourself that the point isn't necessarily getting the "best bargains" but fielding the best team. They often go hand in hand, but not necessarily - the point being don't bid on a guy just because the current bid is less than what you think he's worth. Make sure that you keep track of what everybody else is doing so that you know where they are in terms of positions needed to be filled and salary still available.If you have time to do this, great, but in our league (and I'm sure others) things go WAY too fast to have time to do much of this. Edited May 31, 2008 by BeeR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted May 31, 2008 Share Posted May 31, 2008 The Three Styles of Bidding David M. Dorey Before you ever get to the stage where you plan your strategy, you must already be armed with your personal cheatsheet of player values and the budget you will use (or not and probably regret). Once you are comfortable with those, then and only then should you move to the most important part of the equation - how will you turn that knowledge and those bidding dollars into a killer auction team? You have three basic choices to make and each produces very different sorts of teams. Your decision on which one to pursue should depend on your comfort level with the team you end up. This is a critical decision because it will allow you to control your destiny for the season. You need to choose before you show up and stick with the strategy or you will end up being controlled by the auction and end up with a team that is allowed you rather than one you created. Remember - making no decision is a decision itself and never the best one. Go Big - Going big means buying at least two if not three of the superstars. You know, going in, you want to snag Priest Holmes, Deuce McAllister and Randy Moss. And you can, possibly, do this. You can certainly get Holmes and McAllister. And like cherry vodka, it feels good in the early stages. I mean "whoa, baby! You single? I love you guys" kind of good. Upside - You get superstars! The main tenet in fantasy football is that you have to score better than the league's weekly average in order to win consistently. This is a great way to do just that. As long as you are able to fill in the rest of the roster with at least middle of the road players, you will likely win most games. Get a few sleepers to come through for you and you are sitting pretty. Often the league champs come from teams that take this risk. Often the cellar dwellers do this as well. Those power hitters only need mid-level talent to pull their weight and you will contend and land a sleeper or two and you'll look like the genius of the auction. Downside - You are one injury or star-turned dud from being the league dog. Just like the NFL, you have to make it unscathed all season and have to have those stars perform in relation to their paycheck. What if you had paid the cash for Boldin or Boston already? Marcel Shipp? Or the next dozen players that will be coming on the injury report this season. Plus you have to know that about half those top players do not meet expectations too. Do ya feel lucky? General Armstrong Custer was known to be very confident, arrogant even, up until that whole Little Big Horn thing. Draft Equivalent - This is like getting two #1 picks, plus maybe a #3 pick and then the rest of the team is from round eight or deeper. Go Wide - This plan is the most common. It entails normally getting one top stud player, one really good player, a few good ones and then backups and filler. This strategy allows you to target individual players you really want (within reason) and be flexible to pick up good values. This is a natural plan for someone who is confident in all his valuations of players and knows when someone is a good value and when he is not. This person bids - a lot. A very active player since he will be involved in establishing the bid value of most players. Upside - You do not get killed by one injury and produce solid numbers as long as overall your team stays intact. While you normally have few stars, you do not have many duds. It is a great way to remain competitive at all times. No one ever laughs at this strategy. It can be played very well with an astute bidder that can use a game plan mixed with value picks to produce a solid team with most all money spent on the top half of their roster with an eye to filling out those starter spots the best possible. This is safe and effective. This is the standard formation from those who are used to picking players, one per round, all their lives. This is oten a team owner in one of their first auctions but who is comfortable with player value. Downside - This is most often a ticket to ending up at about .500 on the year. These type teams normally fill the final standings between the 3rd best and 3rd worst teams. No stars and no come-through sleepers normally. The biggest qualifier to how well the team does is the fortunes of the two costliest players and how the hit for the season. If they meet expectations and remain healthy, should produce a team in the upper half of the standings but likely not the top spot. Draft Equivalent - Focusing the majority of a cap towards the starting slots only with far less for back-ups will produce a traditional looking fantasy team. They will usually have about one player that would have been picked from each round of a draft. This is applying a draft strategy to an auction. Go Deep - This strategy is not for the feint of heart. It entails waiting, normally for the first 40 players to be taken before finally winning a bid. There are no obvious superstars but no duds either. Your picks are all upside players with an eye for getting as many sleepers as possible and hoping to land a full set of starters out of them. This is the guy that waits patiently while everyone takes all the big-name players. And then, about 40 or 50 players into the auction he will rule because he has all the cash to take any player he wants for a good while. Upside - No injury, or even a couple injuries, really hurt this team. It is has solid, maybe not spectacular yet, talent and has the best depth and likely the best trading position as well. This plan also contributes it share of championships. This is a plan that maximizes player value and allows the greatest "working" of an auction as it unfolds. Downside - You have to manage this team like a mad man. Trade, free agency and always tracking all your players to see who is stepping up and who needs to be shipped out. Unless you land several sleeper types, this is also a ticket to the standing’s cellar. This takes the most amount of skill and a nice dose of luck does not hurt here either. You have to know when to pull the trigger and when to put the gun down. Can end up facing another team owner with the same strategy and become locked into bidding wars that escalate the value of a deep player far above his relative value because you've let the tiers drain until your options become limited. Watching those top players all fly off for values well above your budget is painful and scary. Draft Equivalent - Think of it this way, it is like having all your picks come between the fourth and tenth round of a normal draft. Could you field a good team like this? Think you can create a great one? Armed with knowledge and prepared for anything, you need to decide if you want to go big, wide or deep. And you have to know that before the auction starts. You'll see soon enough which of the three plans other teams will follow. Assess the risk and make that play. Knowing player values, tiers and your budget will allow you to see the value picks that make a big difference. Every strategy of bidding had its own unique upside and downside, it all points back to being able to value the players correctly before the auction starts. Auction neophytes often like to “Go Big” since they are getting their first opportunity to select from all super stud players unlike in a traditional draft. The most common approach will be the “Go Wide” which is safe, effective and usually results in a solid yet unspectacular team. Many of the “Go Wide” bidders have not fully come to understand the difference between an auction and a draft. Lastly, the “Go Deep” crowd is the smallest and invariably involves the team owners that are the most knowledgeable (ask them, they will likely gladly confirm it). It is the riskiest strategy but one that best addresses the hunt for player value in an auction. There is no single method that ensures success because each should be matched to the bidder’s strengths and weaknesses. Decide what suits you best and devise your game plan accordingly. After the first 30 or so players are awarded, you will know what style each bidder is using. And the more astute will see your plan as well – you do have a plan, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted May 31, 2008 Share Posted May 31, 2008 Make sure that you keep track of what everybody else is doing so that you know where they are in terms of positions needed to be filled and salary still available. If you have time to do this, great, but in our league (and I'm sure others) things go WAY too fast to have time to do much of this. If you bring a laptop with you and set up a spreadsheet ahead of time, it is not hard at all to fill it in in real time--I actually did it myself last year because I couldn't attend my draft in person and had to draft over the telephone (well, actually over the internet using skype, but it is the same thing). (of course, I think it is better if you can hook up a laptop to a projector so that everyone can see what is going on in real time) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted June 1, 2008 Share Posted June 1, 2008 If you have time to do this, great, but in our league (and I'm sure others) things go WAY too fast to have time to do much of this. If you bring a laptop with you and set up a spreadsheet ahead of time, it is not hard at all to fill it in in real time--I actually did it myself last year because I couldn't attend my draft in person and had to draft over the telephone (well, actually over the internet using skype, but it is the same thing). I did this last year (drafted via phone). Still goes too fast to analyze much re. the other teams. PS: thx DMD. GB the Dorey classics. Still waiting for you to set up a Huddle auction draft though, fn wuss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 2, 2008 Share Posted June 2, 2008 Still waiting for you to set up a Huddle auction draft though, fn wuss. :banned: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 2, 2008 Share Posted June 2, 2008 In a league full of morons. Seriously spending 50%+ on any one player is IMO stupid. Ditto 30%+ for a top WR. Agreed. But I'll bet you've seen it happen more than a few times.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted June 2, 2008 Share Posted June 2, 2008 Nope. Even our league isn't that stupid. Hell last year LT went for $40 and that was the highest for any player ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theprofessor Posted June 2, 2008 Share Posted June 2, 2008 it sounds like i should be very careful not to overbid. isn't $100 for a 16 player team standard? i think that is what sportsline uses. There is no real "standard". My auction league has a 23 player roster with a $300 Cap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Scorp Posted June 2, 2008 Share Posted June 2, 2008 Been doing an auction for 8 years now and I have used every one of the strategies listed. We have had mostly the same owners so everyone knows the players each owner likes, if they like rookies, studs, etc. I usually wait a few players to see how the auction will play out that year. Since this is new to your league yo are going in blindfolded as to how to "play the game". Think of the first Survivior, Hatch developed the "alliance theory" and won so the next few years everyone copied it. Rest assured what every stratagy wins the legue this year will be copied next year. Here are a couple of suggestions Supply and Demand rules the auction!!! Know your CAP and roster spots needed AND all of the other owners too!!!!! (If you need a 2nd RB, know what other owners need a a #1 or #2 and what they have to spend) They may bid up your #2 because they have to have a #1! Also if you have your #1 RB and need a #1WR throw out other #1RB's to make the other owners bid on them and deplete their $$$. Again knowing your CAP room and roster AND the other owners helps give you an edge. Be ready to change your stategy on the fly! If you have budgeted 40% of your cap on RB's and the top backs are selling high, you may need to borrow from your TE/WR/QB money to get the top RB(s) you targeted or decide you are not going to get two top RBS but get 3 mid tier ones instead. Then shift the savings to WR or QB. The earlier a player comes out the more the bargain. (USUALLY) I see this in RB and WR a lot. Last year LT was the 5th most expensive RB even though everyone had him #1 on their lists. LT was thrown out first over all. Nobody wanted to over pay for him (LJ burned an owner the year before and everyone knew it). Once LT was gone everyone went after the remaining studs and eventually ended up paying more for them. (Supply and Demand!) This will be the most fun draft you have had, enjoy it!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Cid Posted June 2, 2008 Share Posted June 2, 2008 One thing you should be aware of is that the first Stud at any position pretty much sets the value bar for studs at that position. In other words, the first stud RB will most likely be the cheapest of the the Stud RBs. Same with other positions. If you're grabbing for a stud, it is most likely the best course of action to go after the first one unless you have some reservation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cunning Runt Posted June 2, 2008 Share Posted June 2, 2008 I haven't read much of the responses but I'll jump in with my own. I personally spend what it takes early on the 2-3 guys I really, really want. Then try to get some value in the middle rounds while not overspending - sitting out the bidding on a number of good players. I try to hold some money back for the end when you get a major league bargain since everyone else is out of money. I also think that a $100 amount is too low. It's usually an arbitrary number anyway so why not inflate the number to allow people more flexibility. One league we do $200 which happens to be the amount of our entry fee, so it's in essence "real dollars" being auctioned. Minimum increments are $1. The other league is $100,000,000 which is more reflective of an NFL salary cap. Minimum increments in that are $100k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted June 2, 2008 Share Posted June 2, 2008 I also think that a $100 amount is too low. It's usually an arbitrary number anyway so why not inflate the number to allow people more flexibility.Sounds good in theory but IMO because it's a royal paininthebutt that makes the auction drag too much (or it can), esp if you get a couple dorks going "$20.....21....22.....23........24........25.............26................................." etc etc etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 2, 2008 Share Posted June 2, 2008 Sounds good in theory but IMO because it's a royal paininthebutt that makes the auction drag too much (or it can), esp if you get a couple dorks going "$20.....21....22.....23........24........25.............26................................." etc etc etc I agree with BR. Looks like its time for more therapy... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Scorp Posted June 2, 2008 Share Posted June 2, 2008 Our Cap is $10 per player on the roster, 18 players equals $180 Cap. Works fine. You do get the $1 raises but it is not too bad. Dows give you a little more flexibilty. Top players still go for high percentage of cap but mid range players don't go for the minumim bid like they do with $100 Caps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cunning Runt Posted June 16, 2008 Share Posted June 16, 2008 Sounds good in theory but IMO because it's a royal paininthebutt that makes the auction drag too much (or it can), esp if you get a couple dorks going "$20.....21....22.....23........24........25.............26................................." etc etc etc That can happen sometimes, but it's not nearly as tedious as it may sound. Usually we get to the price pretty quick and especially so because most of the owners generally open the bidding at a reasonable number to start with. I run the auction and basically it's like a real auction - "going once, going twice, sold" type thing. Doesn't take nearly as long as you might think. Try it - you might like it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roo Posted June 16, 2008 Share Posted June 16, 2008 I like to bid high on a top prospect right out of the gate. People are still getting comfortable and they kind of look around like, "is this dude flippin crazy?" You can often end up with that top prospect at a relatively good bargain once you see the rest of the player values to compare. I also like to find the best bargains with the WR position, since it generally has the greatest depth in each tier. First - best move you ever made going to auction. You'll love it. Second - I tend to agree with the above strategy and it worked for me last year. Yes I spent a crapload on LT, but guys like LJ, Alexander, Addai, and Sjax ended up going for nearly as much as people started to freak out about their RB1 (and for good reason). The couple bucks difference is neglible by the time you start bidding on WR3s. And to his other point, I was able to get Braylan and Marshall for under $5 last year (out of $200 budget) - WR value can often be found late, or even on the waiver wire, so don't spend money on those iffy positions. Spend it where you know it'll pay off. I didn't bother buying a kicker last year - I used that $1 on A. Gonzalez. Some other pointers: 1. Don't get caught as the guy who's holidng out. Because usually there will be one other guy in a similar boat who is going to jack up your prices. You won't have the control you'd think you'd have. And, crafty coaches will raise you just because they can and they can see that you're desperate. 2. Target players. I know some people don't agree with this and it's generally frowned upon in snake format - but I find that knowing exactly who you want, and then layering several variations of a "golden" roster makes things go much more smoothly. If you really like Calvin Johnson - get him. Unless the prices goes to the moon, then slide to your next favorite. 3. If the time is right, nominate a player who you know several other coaches will scramble for. I did this last year with Brandon Jacobs and 3 coaches (NYG fans) went bonkers, effectively making one coach overspend early. Play other coaches against each other. 4. Don't worry about spending early. If Addai and Westy are the backfield you want, and they just so happen to be the first two nominated players, just go after them. Don't adjust a gameplan just because you "feel" overly ambitious. You'll regret it. Every year will be different, and since your league is new to it I would highly suggest doing some mock auctions. A couple dumb coaches can really mess up/skew an auction. Hope this was helpful - have fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted June 16, 2008 Share Posted June 16, 2008 I agree with BR. Looks like its time for more therapy... Just glad you made sure to say "more" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danny Zuko Posted June 18, 2008 Author Share Posted June 18, 2008 I haven't found any good publications that give auction prices for players in a PPR league. Any recommendations? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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