2008 Week 11 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[rattsass]

Ok guys, changed my mind on the Thursday night game and came out on the right side with the Jets. I think that makes my record of single game picks 23-11. Here is where my chips are for Sunday.

 

Falcons -6 - You can come with all kinds of reasons to take the Broncos in this game. You can convince yourself that the Falcons are not as good as they seem, and the Broncos aren't as bad as they seem. You could easily talk yourself into taking those 6 juicy points right here. I'd rather not try to convince myself to assume all those things. The Falcons are as good as they have looked. The Broncos are as bad as they have looked. They come into this game seriously shorthanded in the RB department, and their secondary doesn't exactly reek of quality either. Ryan is going to do what he has been doing. Roddy White will eat them alive. Turner and Norwood will have their way. And Cutler might throw 60 passes trying to catch up. It won't happen. This is a Falcons blowout baby!

 

Chiefs +5.5 - Here is a very similar game Where I am going to believe what my eyes have been telling me. The Saints are defensively challenged, missing Reggie Bush, and the Chiefs offense is suddenly a juggernaut. The Saints can't stop the Chiefs. But the Chiefs will be able to stop the Saints from time to time with the help of the hometown faithful. Arrowhead stadium is a rough place to come in and win a game. The Chiefs have a very real possibility of winning this game outright. The Chiefs level of play over the last 3 weeks had been right on par with the play of the Saints. Very even looking teams over the last several weeks. I will gladly take the points here in a game that I consider a pick'em.

 

Titans -1 I'm not sure what is going on the with the lines for this game. It was -3 and now it is -1 in some places. I really don't care what money is coming in on who in this game. I don't care what kind of dirty little tricks the numbers guys are pulling. All I know is that the Jaguars got jacked up hard by the Bengals two weeks ago, and the Titans haven't lost yet. No way I am getting off the Titans streak. Not for a lousy point or even 3 points. Hell, I wouldn't bet against them in this game if the spread was 10. (granted I wouldn't bet ON them either, just saying) Ride the train until the train stops. Then get off if you want. Do not jump off the train while it is still moving. Very dangerous.

[whomper]

Ari -3 vs Seatle looking almost too tempting .Why do I feel like it is a sucker bet ?

[rattsass]

Other than New England, I have had the worst luck betting for/against the Seahawks. And not much better on the Cards I might add. Yeah, it does look tempting. Not touching it unless maybe I hit big in the early games and feel dangerous. Cards should roll, but do they ever cover the spread when everyone expects them to?

[Trots]

Titans -1 I'm not sure what is going on the with the lines for this game. It was -3 and now it is -1 in some places. I really don't care what money is coming in on who in this game. I don't care what kind of dirty little tricks the numbers guys are pulling. All I know is that the Jaguars got jacked up hard by the Bengals two weeks ago, and the Titans haven't lost yet. No way I am getting off the Titans streak. Not for a lousy point or even 3 points. Hell, I wouldn't bet against them in this game if the spread was 10. (granted I wouldn't bet ON them either, just saying) Ride the train until the train stops. Then get off if you want. Do not jump off the train while it is still moving. Very dangerous.

Titans are still -3.5 for me at BetUS. I would love -1.

[i_am_the_swammi]

2-3 last week, 0-1 Thursday...maybe I shouls keep my picks to myself...ugh!

 

This weekend:

 

carolina -14: statement game for Delhomme/Smith after last week's debacle.....31-10 looks right

 

under 40.5 NYG/BAL : if the winds weren't so bad today, I might stay away.....but with NY likely having to rely on the pass today to move the ball, mother nature may not let that happen. NYG 16, Bal 10

 

PHL/CIN over 41.5 : not sure the Eagles will cover the -9.5, but I do see them putting up 27-30, and the Bungles hanging around.

 

GB -3.5: begging you to take the Bears here with the hook...going the other way,

 

Houston +8.5 : they always seem to play the Colts tough, and should have beaten them last month if it weren't for a Rosenfels brain-cramp. I doubt he's forgotten that, and lets be honest...these aren't the Colts of old. They are overvalued here a bit,

[SheikYerbuti]

Ari -3 vs Seatle looking almost too tempting .Why do I feel like it is a sucker bet ?

 

Too many players coming back for Seattle. . I just don't know what kind of team we'll be looking at today. Maybe the same, maybe vastly improved. And Arizona won a squeaker last week against a truly bad team. Like the line too, but scared of it.

[xMRogers]

Went huge on the Eagles -9 (4x unit). Just can't see anyway they don't score 35+ and give up 14 or less. Barring something odd in special teams, they double to triple this line.

 

Also on:

 

NYG -6.5 (bought)

KC +6 (bought)

Titans -2.5 (bought)

Minn +4

Lions +14

 

Moneyline parlays including Chargers, Seahawks, Vikings, Chiefs and Broncos (I play these sort of 10 to 15x odds bets with quarter units - last year made a killing on them as hit like 4 out of 25, this year not so much - down just under 5 units overall and 4.5 of it is parlays as have only hit two out of almost 40)

[THE SIX KINGS]

Over 51 Den @ Atl

Carolina -14

Tampa Bay -4

Over 38.5 Min @ TB

Pittsburgh -5.5

[Gopher]

7 Point Teaser (4 Teams)

Pays 2 to 1

CHI/GBP Over 36

MIA/OAK Over 30.5

HOU/IND Over 43.5

MIN/TBB Over 31.5

 

Parlay (5 Teams - Money Line)

Pays 2 to 1

IND

PHI

ATL

CAR

MIA

 

7 Point Teaser (6 Teams)

Pays 5 to 1

Bears(Chicago) +10.5

Falcons(Atlanta) 0

Eagles(Philadelphia) -2

Panthers(Carolina) -7

Dolphins(Miami) -3

Giants(NewYork) 0

 

6 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

Pays 9 to 5

Chiefs(KansasCity) +12

Colts(Indianapolis) -2

Vikings(Minnesota) +11.5

 

7 Point Teaser (4 Teams)

Pays 2 to 1

Packers(GreenBay) +3.5

Panthers(Carolina) -7

Dolphins(Miami) -3

Ravens(Baltimore) +14

 

6 Point Teaser (5 Teams)

Pays 4.5 to 1

Steelers(Pittsburgh) +1

Redskins(Washington) +7.5

Giants(NewYork) -1

Chiefs(KansasCity) +11.5

Colts(Indianapolis) -2

 

6.5 Point Teaser (5 Teams)

Pays 4 to 1

Falcons(Atlanta) 0

Eagles(Philadelphia) -2.5

Patriots(NewEngland) +3.5

49ers(SanFrancisco) 0

Titans(Tennessee) +3.5

[rattsass]

Hmm. Tough day. After I missed on both the early games I went chasing doubled down on parlay:

 

Ten -3

Dal -2

 

Dallas hits I am ahead for the week. I see the spread has now moved to Dallas -3. Glad I did my chasing early.

[Trots]

Anyone else jump up and down for about 5 minutes at the end of the Steelers game during the impossible cover that was incorrectly reversed? How the booth can call either of those laterals an illegal forward pass borders on criminal activity. LT flipped the ball behind his back to Chambers, who lateraled the ball about 5 yards behind him. Unbelievable.

[Shakenbake]

I was jumping up and down on the TD run, gets called back, then again on the last play of the game. Was in shock, and even bigger shock when I found out I lost that game due to the replay.

 

300 swing for me, and not in a good way.

[Jackass]

Anyone else jump up and down for about 5 minutes at the end of the Steelers game during the impossible cover that was incorrectly reversed? How the booth can call either of those laterals an illegal forward pass borders on criminal activity. LT flipped the ball behind his back to Chambers, who lateraled the ball about 5 yards behind him. Unbelievable.

 

Think the first flip was forward but the point of contention is that the play should only be stopped if the ball hits the ground on the illegal lateral.

[Steeltown Dre]

One of the most egregious errors I have seen in all my years, especially when it came.

 

A. 10 minutes after the game was over

B. After the points were on the board

C. After an official review so they had a chance to make sure they were right

D. After decision from the booth which would allow the play to stand

E. After a 2nd officials huddle that then ignored booth review and provided a wrong ruling

 

Also factor the fact that they removed the points from the board and then seconds later, the official openly admitted that what he did was wrong and the TD should have stood.

 

Not to mention the questionable pass interference TD that gave SD their first and only TD, and the fact the Steelers had 13 penalties and well over 100+ yards in penalties and SD had 1 penalty.

 

I won't even call it a "bad beat" it was outright stolen by the official after the game was well over.

[SheikYerbuti]

One of the most egregious errors I have seen in all my years, especially when it came.

 

A. 10 minutes after the game was over

B. After the points were on the board

C. After an official review so they had a chance to make sure they were right

D. After decision from the booth which would allow the play to stand

E. After a 2nd officials huddle that then ignored booth review and provided a wrong ruling

 

Also factor the fact that they removed the points from the board and then seconds later, the official openly admitted that what he did was wrong and the TD should have stood.

 

Not to mention the questionable pass interference TD that gave SD their first and only TD, and the fact the Steelers had 13 penalties and well over 100+ yards in penalties and SD had 1 penalty.

 

I won't even call it a "bad beat" it was outright stolen by the official after the game was well over.

 

I get the feeling this was one of Dre's plays. .

[i_am_the_swammi]

I get the feeling this was one of Dre's plays. .

 

Anyone pay for his picks, and can now post them after-the-fact? Be interesting to see how he is doing now that he is a "fee" handicapper.

 

Hope biz is good, Dre!

[SheikYerbuti]

Anyone pay for his picks, and can now post them after-the-fact? Be interesting to see how he is doing now that he is a "fee" handicapper.

 

Hope biz is good, Dre!

 

He did send out 1 free play yesterday to his subscribers who haven't payed for picks

[Vinatieri Is God]

Not to belabor the point but anyone who had Pitts minus the points can't be that upset. No right covering that game anyway. Had they allowed it, it would have been one of the worst losses ever for SD bettors.

 

Although I am a proponent of getting it right so if the refs truly realized the mistake minutes later, they should have fixed it. Sounds to me like they didn't realize it until long after the game at which point nothing can be done.

[Steeltown Dre]

It was one of my ATS system plays and the only 4pm game on the card for me, so I was watching that game with a lot of interest. Now don't get me wrong, I never thought about the fact of being on the "right or wrong" side, all I saw was a game being dominated by penalties against the Steelers and a really close battle. The thing that makes me frustrated is the fact that this was not a "moose" or a bad beat. I'll explain a bad beat in a minute. But this was an after the game ruling that negated points for a totally wrong reason. I'm sure we've all seen some games decided by 1 controversial play. But this was a game that was decided by a referee after the game was over and points were on the board and teams were leaving the field, and they even had replay and a rule book and they still got it wrong, and then admitted moments later that THEY were wrong and that the points should have stood. I have never, ever seen that before. I heard the arguments "the refs just wanted to get it right, that's why they reviewed it in the first place" but I don't know if I buy that. Why then would they announce the right call (the play stands) after replay, then huddle, reverse it, then seconds later admit the TD was good?

 

As for a bad beat, let's talk about my Over play I sent out for free:

 

It was the Over in TB/Min. Over 38.5 If you didn't watch the game and only looked at the final score, of 19-13, you would think it was a defensive battle.

 

But the reality was TB marched the ball up the field with ease time and time again (I had TB as a play as well), getting inside the Minnesota 20 on five occasions, but walked away with only 1 TD to show for it. Want more proof the game was not a defensive battle? How about the fact that the teams COMBINED for THREE PUNTS!!! TB only punted once! Min only punted twice!

 

More to make you sick if you had the over: Here are drives where TB advanced the ball into Min territory only to kick FGs or fumble:

 

TB reached the -

Min 37 - TB turnover on downs

Min 17 - TB FG

Min 3 - TB FG

Min 30 - TB fumble

Min 10 - TB FG

Min 8 - TB FG

Min 23 - TB missed FG

Min 28 - TB kneel down - end of game

 

The game was closer than it ever should have been. TB dominated that game in every respect, but was totally worthless once in scoring range. Which was quite surprising, considering prior to this game, Minnesota's defense was in the bottom half of red zone efficiency, allowing a TD on 56% of trips inside the red zone. TB was inside the 20 five times and came away with only 1 TD, and was inside the 30 (for a 47 yd FG or closer) on three other occasions and walked away with zero points on both of those trips.

 

Now that was the definition of a "bad beat". They put up 32 points combined. Had they scored 1 single TD from any of those 3 drives inside the 10, we win, or any of the total 7 drives inside the 30, we win. Now that is the definition of a "bad beat". Converting 1 red zone TD out of 5 (20%) on a team that allows 50+% inside the red zone. It was just terrible.

 

That play came from my 22-1 Overs system of last year which was previously 7-2 on the year this season, so you know the computer isn't just making up games when the system has that much success.

 

But the Steelers game, that was something else, that was beyond a bad beat. I can't come up with the right word to describe it.

[Steeltown Dre]

Not to belabor the point but anyone who had Pitts minus the points can't be that upset. No right covering that game anyway. Had they allowed it, it would have been one of the worst losses ever for SD bettors.

 

Although I am a proponent of getting it right so if the refs truly realized the mistake minutes later, they should have fixed it. Sounds to me like they didn't realize it until long after the game at which point nothing can be done.

 

To your second point first, the ref was interviewed immediately after the game and he admitted they got it wrong. So it wasn't as if it was a half a pizza later in his dressing room and walking to his bus. Also, the thing that is so difficult to understand is, they initially got it "right" after the replay, saying the penalty was declined and the play stands. But then the refs huddled again and overturned their own decision? Makes no sense.

 

As for the outcome of the game, I can't be 100% objective as I had the Steelers, but what I can share are the stats.

 

The Steelers had double the yards on the game (410 to 213) and had 13 more minutes in time of possession. They had double the rushing yards and 1.5 times more first downs. The only TD the Chargers scored was due to a 2nd and long outside the red zone which was called pass int on the Steelers and gave SD the ball 1st and goal on the 3, a call that the announcers and I disagreed with. Not saying I'm right, just stating my opinion. That was their first drive of the game, and the next time they put up points on the board was a FG on their last drive of the game before that play at the end of the game. The Steelers put up points in every single quarter except the 1st, and that's when they had the ball on the SD 1 yard line and went for it on 4th down.

 

So to say the Steelers don't "deserve" to cover is somewhat odd. Yes, their cover would have been a "bad beat" so to speak for SD backers, but the fact is, they "deserved" it because that's how the game ended. The team who didn't "deserve" to cover was the Chargers because they really didn't cover if the ref makes the proper ruling long after the game was over. For me to say that the TB/Min game "deserved to go over" would be wrong. It was a bad beat to be certain, but those are the breaks. The Steelers game is, as I said, something different. It "should have been" a bad beat for SD backers. But that's what happens sometimes. Regardless of my or your opinion on who "deserved" a cover, we probably can agree it most certainly should not have ended w/ the ref ruling like he did.

[rattsass]

I have plenty to say about that Pittsbugh fiasco in my column this week. I am only glad that I didn't play that game because I would have probably been on Pittsburgh. And despite the fact that Pitts had no business covering that game - the reality is that they DID cover that game and those holding Pittsburgh tickets got screwed. Case closed.

 

Hit the nice parlay with Ten and Dal in the late games so all ended well despite going 2-2. Putting up half the profits on the Browns +5 tonight. This is an easy play to me. After watching the Bills the last few weeks, I am pretty sure they shouldn't be a 5 point favorite against the Lions - let alone the Browns. Crennell is undefeated after the bye. Quinn has had 10 days to prepare. The Browns might fumble this one away like they did vs. the Broncos in that last game, but I just don't think the Bills will be able to exploit the Browns weaknesses as efficiently as the Broncs did in that game. To me this is a field goal game so I see lots of value in the +5 or +6 it will probably end up just before kickoff. Easy play. Hopefully an easy winner.

Edited November 17, 2008 by rattsass

[darin3]

Dre - I don't even need to read your past few posts to gather what's going on... and honestly, you don't have to explain yourself. Just my opinion.

[darin3]

Who's everyone leaning on tonight?

 

At first I liked the Brownies getting 5.5... thinking it's gonna be a game like 24-20... but the line has gone to -5... a move I just don't like.

 

Thoughts?

 

FYI, BUF is 1-4 ATS in their last 5, but 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games. Aaron Schobel is out again; less pressure on Quinn. CLE is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games but 1-3-1 ATS in last 5 (I think... Bodog says they're 1-3-1 SU in last 5, but that's not possible)

 

Huh, and it opened at -4.5. I'm gonna take a little leap and go with the Browns to keep it closer than a TD.

Edited November 17, 2008 by darin3