Menudo Posted February 26, 2009 Share Posted February 26, 2009 I know that a lot of people got burned by Santonio's inconsistency last season. I think his break-out fantasy season is going to happen a year later than most people thought. I am predicting that Santonio becomes a top-tier fantasy WR next season. I know it is a bold prediction, but, he has the talent, and I think things are following in place for him for the following reasons. 1. Nate Washington will almost definitely walk. I think that someone is going to offer Nate starting WR money, and with Sweed in waiting, the Steelers won't come close to matching that. 2. With Sweed replacing Washington, Holmes will get the majority of Washington's looks. Sweed is not ready to produce the opportunities that Nate did, not yet anyway. Hines Ward's production will remain the same as last year (at best), at this point of his career, which is just fine. In the end Holmes sees an up-tick with Washington leaving. 3. Holmes has always had the talent, and his playoff run and Super Bowl performance will bring the confidence up to par with the talent. Not only Santonio's confidence in himself, but, Roethlisberger's confidence in him as well. These are my thoughts. If you are in a keeper or dynasty league and on the fence about Holmes, my suggestion is to hang onto him like grim death. I think you will be happy with the results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WashingtonD Posted February 26, 2009 Share Posted February 26, 2009 I believe his upside is similar to a healthy Santana Moss...one week he will light up the scoreboard to the tune of 3 TDs and 167 yards, the next week he'll catch 2 passes for -10 yards. You won't be able to take him out of your line up for fear of missing the big games (which will come fairly frequently), but you'll be kicking yourself those weeks where he offers nothing. WashD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted February 26, 2009 Share Posted February 26, 2009 Too inconsistent of a personality. Fantasy STUDS do it more often than not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted February 26, 2009 Share Posted February 26, 2009 Are the Steelers becoming a passing team? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted February 26, 2009 Share Posted February 26, 2009 I think he definitely has the talent, but I'm not sure if that offense will give him enough consistent opportunities ech week. I have no stats to back that up... just a gut feeling on my part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted February 26, 2009 Share Posted February 26, 2009 (edited) I have problems with the prediction that Holmes will be a "stud": 1) I always have concerns when a #2 WR shifts to the #1 WR on a team. The attention of the #1 CB on the opposing D and often the FS shading in his direction put a much greater burden on the WR to create a window. A lot of WRs struggle in this transition. 2) Is anyone expecting better numbers from Holmes than they got from Ward? Because with a couple of exceptions, Ward was a fair #2 WR and a good #3 WR. Hardly studly for the greater portion of his career. Holmes would have to bypass Ward's numbers by a 10% to 15% margin to make it to #1 WR range, much less being considered a stud. 3) If Holmes is going to improve into a stud, he's going to have to get a lot of opportunities. That means Roethlisberger will have to throw the ball a lot more than he does now. If Roethlisbrger throws the ball more and the way he holds onto the ball too long in the pocket, odds would seem to indicate that he's going to get hurt - he's already taking a beating right now. To even make it into being a top 10 QB in pass attempts, Roethlisberger is going to have to throw the ball 12% +/- more than he's doing right now under Tomlin. I have some real difficulty with this in particular, which limits Holmes. I just can't see Holmes being anything more than a decent #2 FF WR - and some of that is not attributable to Holmes himself, though I would seriously question whether he would fit into the top 10 WRs as far as capability/physical ability goes. Edited February 26, 2009 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted February 26, 2009 Share Posted February 26, 2009 all I know is he'll be a "stud" for someone else's fantasy team. I'm done with him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efi4eye Posted February 26, 2009 Share Posted February 26, 2009 I tend to agree about the inconsistent part. He's a deep threat, not the kind of WR who will catch 100 passes in a year IMO. Lee Evans, Santana Moss for example - great talents, but you can't bank on a good game at any given time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menudo Posted February 26, 2009 Author Share Posted February 26, 2009 I have problems with the prediction that Holmes will be a "stud": 1) I always have concerns when a #2 WR shifts to the #1 WR on a team. The attention of the #1 CB on the opposing D and often the FS shading in his direction put a much greater burden on the WR to create a window. A lot of WRs struggle in this transition. 2) Is anyone expecting better numbers from Holmes than they got from Ward? Because with a couple of exceptions, Ward was a fair #2 WR and a good #3 WR. Hardly studly for the greater portion of his career. Holmes would have to bypass Ward's numbers by a 10% to 15% margin to make it to #1 WR range, much less being considered a stud. 3) If Holmes is going to improve into a stud, he's going to have to get a lot of opportunities. That means Roethlisberger will have to throw the ball a lot more than he does now. If Roethlisbrger throws the ball more and the way he holds onto the ball too long in the pocket, odds would seem to indicate that he's going to get hurt - he's already taking a beating right now. To even make it into being a top 10 QB in pass attempts, Roethlisberger is going to have to throw the ball 12% +/- more than he's doing right now under Tomlin. I have some real difficulty with this in particular, which limits Holmes. I just can't see Holmes being anything more than a decent #2 FF WR - and some of that is not attributable to Holmes himself, though I would seriously question whether he would fit into the top 10 WRs as far as capability/physical ability goes. Very good points BB. I do enjoy talking football with you. I guess Stud may have been too strong of an argument. I just think, due to the reasons I gave that he will be far more consistent and see many more opportunities starting in 2009. Obviously everyone disagrees with me thus far, but, I'm sticking to my thought. I think he can be a Top 10 fantasy producing WR. Time will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted February 26, 2009 Share Posted February 26, 2009 If the Steelers can get a better O line than I think you'll see an uptick in Holmes production. He is good, but a deep ball threat is only good when the QB has time to let him run his routes. I don't have the stats in front of me, but I've always thought the Steelers have thrown more than people give them credit for the last few years. All deep ball guys are risky, but I think that IF the O line gets better this offseason (FA or draft or both) than Holmes could be a much better option next year than he was this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted February 26, 2009 Share Posted February 26, 2009 I don't have the stats in front of me, but I've always thought the Steelers have thrown more than people give them credit for the last few years. PIT pass O rankings: 2008 20th pass attempts 2007 31st pass attempts (Tomlin's first year) 2006 14th pass attempts 2005 32nd pass attempts 2004 32nd pass attempts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss Cheezhead Posted February 26, 2009 Share Posted February 26, 2009 The rule: Players who follow a mediocre regular season with a huge postseason usually follow with another mediocre regular season. I'll let someone else try to draft the exceptions to the rule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Puddy Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 I don't think he'll ever be great. I truly think he doesn't have the 'brains'. Plus I still think he's an off field incident away from really tarnishing his rep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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