I'm tired of the Belicheck apologists

[Grits and Shins]

Almost every ex-coach in the sports media won't come out and say that BB made a bone head call. They all (even Gruden) want to make excuses for him and then finish up by saying 'I would have punted the ball'.

 

Geez guys have a sac and man up ... either say it was a bone head call or say you support it .. none of this wish washy crap

[crazysob]

Almost every ex-coach in the sports media won't come out and say that BB made a bone head call. They all (even Gruden) want to make excuses for him and then finish up by saying 'I would have punted the ball'.

 

Geez guys have a sac and man up ... either say it was a bone head call or say you support it .. none of this wish washy crap

 

He did what he felt was right at the time, it didn't work out... move on.

[Czarina]

If they'd have converted, NE holds the ball and wins the game. He's an arrogant genius.

 

If they punt, chances are Indy finds a way to win, because that's what they do, game over.

 

If it turns out like it did and Belichick blows it, he's an arrogant genius that took a daring shot and missed.

 

Did I like the call? Not so much, but hey, they don't pay me the big bucks. He's done precisely the same type of thing before and they've converted.

['canes2004]

I know I'm in the minority, but I still think it was a good call. Hero or Zero move. Very very rarely will you hear a coach or ex-coach criticize another coach on their game decisions whether it be college, pro, football , hoops or whatever. They just give each other the secret handshake and move on.

[Jackass]

Almost every ex-coach in the sports media won't come out and say that BB made a bone head call. They all (even Gruden) want to make excuses for him and then finish up by saying 'I would have punted the ball'.

 

Geez guys have a sac and man up ... either say it was a bone head call or say you support it .. none of this wish washy crap

 

Maybe the decision's not as obvious as you think.

[Bring Back Pat!!!]

If they'd have converted, NE holds the ball and wins the game. He's an arrogant genius.

 

If they punt, chances are Indy finds a way to win, because that's what they do, game over.

 

If it turns out like it did and Belichick blows it, he's an arrogant genius that took a daring shot and missed.

 

Did I like the call? Not so much, but hey, they don't pay me the big bucks. He's done precisely the same type of thing before and they've converted.

 

 

I can stomach the first part of this answer, but the bolded part is crap. Never. Ever. EVER! Please show me where the Patriots have gone for a 4th and 2 (not 1 or inches) inside their own 30, when leading by less than a TD, with such little time on the clock. Please, please find when they did this.

 

Fact is, it's never been done. I don't think it's been done in football by anyone. Why would you? 100 out of 100 other times a similar situation has come up the team punts.

 

It was the wrong decison before the play was run, and it's the wrong decision now. I don't care what you think will happen if you punt, you must make the other team beat you! The Colts punted 7 times to that point, and was intercepted twice, so stopping them on a 60+ yard drive was possible. This was a cowardly call made out of fear and I can only hope the fact that it failed will prevent him from trying it in the future.

[BeeR]

If they'd have converted, NE holds the ball and wins the game. He's an arrogant genius.

 

If they punt, chances are Indy finds a way to win, because that's what they do, game over.

 

If it turns out like it did and Belichick blows it, he's an arrogant genius that took a daring shot and missed.

 

Strike three yer outta there.

 

He's a great coach but no "genius" and it was a VERY stupid call. Also water is wet. Even if I wasn't a Colts fan and BB hater, I love that they didn't convert because if he had made it, even more people would be excusing his bad call away. As said above, make the other team beat you. Manning is great but not perfect (the 2 INTs in that game in fact being the most recent and obvious example) and it would not have been such a shock if NE had stopped them.

 

lol @ BB. It was like his early little Christmas present to us.

[ced1001]

Fact is, it's never been done. I don't think it's been done in football by anyone. Why would you? 100 out of 100 other times a similar situation has come up the team punts.

 

Ahem... did you see them play Atlanta earlier this season? I was there. They went for it on 4th and 2 from their own 30 with 5 mins left and got it. Iced the game and sealed the W.

[SMF]

Ahem... did you see them play Atlanta earlier this season? I was there. They went for it on 4th and 2 from their own 30 with 5 mins left and got it. Iced the game and sealed the W.

 

I looked and this is the only play I can find that slightly fits your description

 

4-1-ATL 33 (2:00) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 81-R.Moss to ATL 25 for 8 yards (23-C.Houston).

 

first it was 4-1. Second they were up by 16 points when they ran this play not 6. and third they were on ATL 33 yard line not on their own 33 yard line. Please let me know if there is another play you are talking about.

[keggerz]

Ahem... did you see them play Atlanta earlier this season? I was there. They went for it on 4th and 2 from their own 30 with 5 mins left and got it. Iced the game and sealed the W.

 

1-10-NE22 (6:52) F.Taylor up the middle to NE 23 for 1 yard (C.Davis).

2-9-NE23 (6:09) F.Taylor up the middle to NE 30 for 7 yards (T.Lewis, S.Nicholas).

3-2-NE30 (5:26) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short right to R.Moss to NE 41 for 11 yards (B.Grimes). NE 81-Moss 61st career 100-yard game, 2nd in NFL history.

1-10-NE41 (4:43) T.Brady pass short left to S.Morris to ATL 42 for 17 yards (E.Coleman).

1-10-ATL42 (3:57) F.Taylor left guard to ATL 39 for 3 yards (T.Lewis, C.Houston). NE 21-Taylor 49th career 100-yard game.

2-7-ATL39 (3:15) F.Taylor left end to ATL 36 for 3 yards (E.Coleman, K.Biermann).

3-4-ATL36 (2:31) F.Taylor left guard to ATL 33 for 3 yards (C.Lofton, M.Peterson).

4-1-ATL33 (2:00) T.Brady pass short left to R.Moss to ATL 25 for 8 yards (C.Houston).

1-10-ATL25 (1:17) F.Taylor up the middle to ATL 27 for -2 yards (M.Peterson, C.Houston).

2-12-ATL27 (1:12) T.Brady kneels to ATL 28 for -1 yards.

3-13-ATL28 (:39) T.Brady kneels to ATL 29 for -1 yards.

[keggerz]

I looked and this is the only play I can find that slightly fits your description

 

4-1-ATL 33 (2:00) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 81-R.Moss to ATL 25 for 8 yards (23-C.Houston).

 

first it was 4-1. Second they were up by 16 points when they ran this play not 6. and third they were on ATL 33 yard line not on their own 33 yard line. Please let me know if there is another play you are talking about.

you beat me to it..and yeah being up by 16 with 2:00 go is a big difference and even then I remember thinking he should have kicked the FG...but I guess the good guy that he is he didn't want to run up the score :oldrolleyes:

[WaterMan]

He did what he felt was right at the time, it didn't work out... move on.

 

+1

 

He has more haters than Super Bowl rings.

[Savage Beatings]

I don't think it was a horrible call, but I think it was kind of a dick move in regards to how he treats his tream. For good or for bad, those players were giving their all on the field. His decision basically said F U to his own Defense. Maybe they deserved to lose for the way they were playing in the 4th quarter, but give them a freaking chance at least. I would think that they would rather lose by trying their best and getting beat by better players, than by trying their best and getting beat by their own coach's decision.

[policyvote]

If they'd have converted, NE holds the ball and wins the game. He's an arrogant genius.

 

If they punt, chances are Indy finds a way to win, because that's what they do, game over.

 

Everyone came out and said "you have to have faith in your defense", but his defense had just conclusively proven that they had no ability to stop the Colts whatsoever. Putting them back out there and asking them to stop Peyton on a short field was probably a dumber call. If Faulk catches that cleanly (when he was over the line), the Pats win and we pin yet another gold star in Belicheck's chest.

 

Peace

policy

[Bring Back Pat!!!]

Ahem... did you see them play Atlanta earlier this season? I was there. They went for it on 4th and 2 from their own 30 with 5 mins left and got it. Iced the game and sealed the W.

 

 

Ahem, remove head from ass, then speak.

 

The play you're referencing was in the 3RD QUARTER, with 4:40 left. It was also a 4th and 1 (which they ran up the middle with Sammy Morris) It was from their own 24 and they were leading by 6. But, if it failed, they had 19 minutes to score again to win the game.

 

VERY different circumstances. VERY.

 

Try again. You won't find one.

Edited November 17, 2009 by Bring Back Pat!!!

[detlef]

Ahem, remove head from ass, then speak.

 

The play you're referencing was in the 3RD QUARTER, with 4:40 left. It was also a 4th and 1 (which they ran up the middle with Sammy Morris) It was from their own 24 and they were leading by 6. But, if it failed, they had 19 minutes to score again to win the game.

 

VERY different circumstances. VERY.

 

Try again. You won't find one.

I think you and others are making far too big a deal about how much impact the specific circumstances have on how likely they are to convert. The notion keeps coming up of the gravity of having to make it or lose the game. First off, it's not convert or lose. It's convert or then you have only a 40% chance of winning. That is, unless you think that Indy's offense was more potent than normal at that moment, which only makes the decision to try and keep the ball out of their hands better.

 

Regardless, this is the freaking Pats we're talking about. It's not some some upstart team with a rookie QB gripping because they might be pulling off some David v Goliath. These are the bastages who make other teams grip. Of course, Indy is no new kid on the block either, so I think it's fair to say that neither side was gripping any harder than the other. Because, don't forget, Indy had as much reason to be nervous as NE did. Unlike NE, it was do or die for them. NE couldn't lose the game on that play, but Indy could.

[Mello]

Fact is, it's never been done. I don't think it's been done in football by anyone. Why would you? 100 out of 100 other times a similar situation has come up the team punts.

 

Doesn't matter to your argument, but it's happened before. Switzer's Cowboys vs. Eagles in '95. Slightly different situation, it was tied, 4th-1 on the 29. It was an even worse in that he ran the play and failed, but the play didn't count because the 2 minute warning hit right before the snap. Then after the timeout, he ran the same exact play and failed again.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/1995/12/11/sports/p...falls-flat.html

 

 

Personally, I think, based on the odds, Belichick made the right decision. It's just so against football culture and history that people can't accept it. Problem is, any new coach would get run out of town for playing the odds correctly in football so only tenured coaches like Belichick can even think about trying it. What I would question, other than the play call, is if he is going to make this call here, why is he punting the ball in most situations in the game? If he's going to coach like that, he needs to be going for almost every 4th and 1 in any game situation and 4th and much longer near the middle of the field. Similar to this chart (based on NFL averages. NE should probably go for it more than this shows because they are probably more likely to make it than the NFL average)

 

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2618/368851...7450826e5_o.png

 

From this 4-part article: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4t...udy-part-1.html

[detlef]

Unrelated to how I feel about the call, I'm more annoyed by many of the talking heads bashing him and feeling the need to stretch facts to justify their case. Hell, considering the fact that the majority of people tend to agree with them, I can't see why they have to.

 

Yesterday Cowheard and Dilfer were having a mutual admiration fest in bashing him and these little nuggets came out.

 

Cowherd said, in so many words, that this blunder may have cost NE home field in the play-offs forcing them to go on the road in Ohio or Pitt where the bad weather could affect their style of play. Um, unlike balmy NE? And the crappy weather sure didn't slow them down a few weeks back vs Tenn.

 

He then asked Dilfer if either of the HOF coaches he played for (Dungy or Holmgren) would have ever tolerated a QB trying to convince him to go for it on 4th. "If anyone even tried, they'd get an ear full." Really? So that time a few years back when Manning sent the punt team off the field on 4th down doesn't count? That wasn't even suggesting to the coach they go for it. That was brazenly telling the coach "We're going for it."

 

And then there's the guy around here who kept on saying, "If you punt, you make him go 70-80 yards". or "At least 70 yards" He used both. Listen, if you want to say 70 yards, that's cool. That seems to be what averages would bear out. Certainly dude could punt the thing 50 yds with no return. Then again, they could run it back. Let's just try to limit the what-ifs and stick with the averages. Dude kicks 45 and the guy runs it back 5. Seems reasonable enough. But you can't say 80 unless you say 60-80. And you certainly can't say "at least 70" because otherwise you're simply being disingenuous. Just make your point.

[Bring Back Pat!!!]

I think you and others are making far too big a deal about how much impact the specific circumstances have on how likely they are to convert. The notion keeps coming up of the gravity of having to make it or lose the game. First off, it's not convert or lose. It's convert or then you have only a 40% chance of winning. That is, unless you think that Indy's offense was more potent than normal at that moment, which only makes the decision to try and keep the ball out of their hands better.

 

Regardless, this is the freaking Pats we're talking about. It's not some some upstart team with a rookie QB gripping because they might be pulling off some David v Goliath. These are the bastages who make other teams grip. Of course, Indy is no new kid on the block either, so I think it's fair to say that neither side was gripping any harder than the other. Because, don't forget, Indy had as much reason to be nervous as NE did. Unlike NE, it was do or die for them. NE couldn't lose the game on that play, but Indy could.

 

I think the circumstances have everything to do with it, especially in this case. Reason being, is how the defense is going to play you. The Colts sent the house to mpressure Brady into a quick throw against this play becasue they felt stopping it was their best chance to win the game. They stop that one play and they knew they were going to score. As opposed to preparing for a punt return and a much lower chance to score from 60+ yards away. So the chances of converting are lessened because of the defense you are facing.

 

Where are you pulling that number from? Please show me somewhere the total number of drives the Colts have had when they started at the opponents 29 yard line. I'm willing to bet they score touchdowns on those possessions at a far greater rate than 60%.

[Bring Back Pat!!!]

Doesn't matter to your argument, but it's happened before. Switzer's Cowboys vs. Eagles in '95. Slightly different situation, it was tied, 4th-1 on the 29. It was an even worse in that he ran the play and failed, but the play didn't count because the 2 minute warning hit right before the snap. Then after the timeout, he ran the same exact play and failed again.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/1995/12/11/sports/p...falls-flat.html

 

 

Personally, I think, based on the odds, Belichick made the right decision. It's just so against football culture and history that people can't accept it. Problem is, any new coach would get run out of town for playing the odds correctly in football so only tenured coaches like Belichick can even think about trying it. What I would question, other than the play call, is if he is going to make this call here, why is he punting the ball in most situations in the game? If he's going to coach like that, he needs to be going for almost every 4th and 1 in any game situation and 4th and much longer near the middle of the field. Similar to this chart (based on NFL averages. NE should probably go for it more than this shows because they are probably more likely to make it than the NFL average)

 

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2618/368851...7450826e5_o.png

 

From this 4-part article: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4t...udy-part-1.html

 

 

Tied score and 4th and 1 are definitely different situations. If the Cowboys punt and the Eagles get the ball at their, say 35, they have 2 minutes to go 30 yards to get into field goal position to win the game. Whereas the Colts would have had to go 65 yards to score a touchdown to win the game. Very different alternative choices the coaches were facing.

[detlef]

I think the circumstances have everything to do with it, especially in this case. Reason being, is how the defense is going to play you. The Colts sent the house to mpressure Brady into a quick throw against this play becasue they felt stopping it was their best chance to win the game. They stop that one play and they knew they were going to score. As opposed to preparing for a punt return and a much lower chance to score from 60+ yards away. So the chances of converting are lessened because of the defense you are facing.

 

Where are you pulling that number from? Please show me somewhere the total number of drives the Colts have had when they started at the opponents 29 yard line. I'm willing to bet they score touchdowns on those possessions at a far greater rate than 60%.

For starters, here's the linkNote that, since 2001, the Colts are among the leaders in red zone efficiency but that also factors in how often they at least get 3 pts. If you divide the number of TDs into the number of trips there, you get 59%. Mind you, that's from inside the 20, not the 30. I'm just giving them the benefit of the doubt that it's no worse from there.

 

As for the rest of your point. I think that's speculative at best. Regardless of the situation, Indy is going going to do what they think is the best thing to keep NE from gaining 2 yards. Saying they wanted it more given the situation is silly. Wouldn't the fact that NE's offense knew that they were two yards away from salting away the victory count for just as much? Specifically, are you implying that Ds typically don't bring the house on 4th and 2? Even in the middle of a game, when it's not do or die, you often see a guy bust a huge gain if he manages to get through the line. Why? Because teams typically bring the house on 4th and short.

 

Throughout this entire debate, which I have conducted on, now three separate threads, I've maintained total objectivity and relied exclusively on measurable facts, even giving the other side of the argument the benefit of the doubt many times. You guys keep throwing things out like "Indy knew they had it won if they stopped them", which you simply can't say without also giving up the fact that NE knew the same. And again, it's far more true in NE's case than Indy's. I

[WaterMan]

He then asked Dilfer if either of the HOF coaches he played for (Dungy or Holmgren) would have ever tolerated a QB trying to convince him to go for it on 4th. "If anyone even tried, they'd get an ear full." Really? So that time a few years back when Manning sent the punt team off the field on 4th down doesn't count? That wasn't even suggesting to the coach they go for it. That was brazenly telling the coach "We're going for it."

 

I don't know what Dungy has said about it, but he's one of a few coaches who should keep quiet on that matter.

[ljbrun]

I didn't like the call because it goes against my natural intuition. So I thought would see how I might justify it. This is just the opinion of a NE homer, based on impressions from watching all their games.

 

Punting puts the ball in Manning's hands. This isn't the Manning of 4-5 years ago who, while killing most teams, seemed to struggle against the NE defense when the game is on the line. Manning is arguably the top passer in the NFL and has weapons like Wayne, Clark etc., that can really punish a team with a mediocre pass rush and a defensive backfield that is beatable. The 4th quarter has shown that NE really can't defend a long field against this kind of passing attack. There's simply too much space and time for receivers to get open, and too little pressure on Manning. I wouldn't be surprised that, if NE punts, even without a run back, Indy would have the ball inside the 30 in <6 plays.

 

The chance of converting a 4th isn't an exact number. Every time it's tried it's a unique situation with different teams involved. I thought their chance was good. If they make it - it's pretty much game over. If not, they're defending a short field which is where I think they would be if they punted anyway.

 

One question I have. If they thought ahead and knew (prior to the 3rd down play) that, if needed, they would go for it on 4th. Would it have made more sense to run it on 3rd?

[Grits and Shins]

Some of you missed the point of my post. Whether or not the call was good/bad I said I was tired of people in the sports media (especially prior coaches) who clearly thought it was a bad call stepping all over themselves to give props to Belicheck prior to saying they wouldn't have made the call.

 

Either man up and say Belicheck made a bad call, one that you wouldn't have made.

Or say that you support the decision he made.

[wildcat2334]

Some of you missed the point of my post. Whether or not the call was good/bad I said I was tired of people in the sports media (especially prior coaches) who clearly thought it was a bad call stepping all over themselves to give props to Belicheck prior to saying they wouldn't have made the call.

 

Either man up and say Belicheck made a bad call, one that you wouldn't have made.

Or say that you support the decision he made.

 

 

the coaching fraternity is pretty tight even when it involves Billy-boy

 

I dunno- I have heard plenty of analysts rip him pretty good- including his ex-supermen Bruschsi and Harrison

 

T Dilfer never wastes an opportunity to show you how smart he is, either