Jackass Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Actually with how it is playing out I think it is the easiest of all situations that they could have been presented with...well short of them saying that medically he will never play again...I don't think anyone, fan or not will be able to fault them if and when they part ways. was thinking the same thing. they have the opportunity to draft the most nfl ready qb since Manning, from all accounts. Colts are luckiest team ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 (edited) $7 million dollars per year of the roster bonus will count against the cap for four years. If he is cut/traded/released before the end of the year, the rest is accelerated on to the next year's cap. For example, if the Colts pay him the roster bonus, Manning's hit against the cap will be his base salary ($7.4 million) + prorated signing bonus (approximately $4 million per year) + prorated roster bonus (approximately $7 million per year.) That's over $18 million hit in 2012. If they cut/trade him after one year, his hit against the cap will be the remainder of his signing bonus ($12 million) + the remainder of his roster bonus ($21 million). That's a $33 million cap hit to risk to find out if he can play or not. If they cut/trade him after two years it's the remainder of his signing bonus ($8 million) + the remainder of his roster bonus ($14 million). That's a $22 million cap hit. Are you really going to sit Andrew Luck for two years? And then be in cap hell in the third year to purge Manning's bonuses? Now you've got to sign the first pick in the draft too and give him a healthy signing bonus. Cam Newton got a $14 million+ signing bonus. That's a lot of money for a "mentor" than may or may not be healthy enough to play. The Colts are going to have a crazy amount of cap space if they let Manning, Wayne, and Mathis all walk. Edited January 4, 2012 by CaptainHook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Re: trading him. Since his bonus is due *before* the season... are they allowed to restructure and/or negotiate a trade with another team? Does the league "shut down" at some point until the new league year strts? They can't trade him before March 8. And they won't be able to take the cap hit if they trade him after. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I hear ya but I think it's worth trying to do. The rest of the team is mostly crap anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 $7 million dollars per year of the roster bonus will count against the cap for four years. If he is cut/traded/released before the end of the year, the rest is accelerated on to the next year's cap. For example, if the Colts pay him the roster bonus, Manning's hit against the cap will be his base salary ($7.4 million)+ prorated signing bonus (approximately $4 million per year) + prorated roster bonus (approximately $7 million per year.) That's over $18 million hit this year. If they cut him after one year, his hit against the cap will be the remainder of his signing bonus ($12 million) + the remainder of his roster bonus ($21 million). That's a $33 million cap hit to risk if he can't play. If they cut him after two years it's the remainder of his signing bonus ($8 million) + the remainder of his roster bonus ($14 million). That's a $22 million cap hit. Now you've got to sign the first pick in the draft too and give him a healthy signing bonus. That's a lot of money for a "mentor" than may or may not be healthy enough to play. Wait, so are they on the hook for none of that if they cut him before the bonus hits? Also, I'm kind of curious about what Opie said. Can you eat the 7 million over 4 years, and just trade him to a team on the hook for his base salary? I assume you can't, but cap stuff gets confusing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 $7 million dollars per year of the roster bonus will count against the cap for four years. If he is cut/traded/released before the end of the year, the rest is accelerated on to the next year's cap. For example, if the Colts pay him the roster bonus, Manning's hit against the cap will be his base salary ($7.4 million)+ prorated signing bonus (approximately $4 million per year) + prorated roster bonus (approximately $7 million per year.) That's over $18 million hit this year. If they cut him after one year, his hit against the cap will be the remainder of his signing bonus ($12 million) + the remainder of his roster bonus ($21 million). That's a $33 million cap hit to risk if he can't play. If they cut him after two years it's the remainder of his signing bonus ($8 million) + the remainder of his roster bonus ($14 million). That's a $22 million cap hit. Now you've got to sign the first pick in the draft too and give him a healthy signing bonus. That's a lot of money for a "mentor" than may or may not be healthy enough to play. I don't think this is about the CAP HIT they would take for releasing him....I think it is about paying out 28 million REAL dollars for someone that might not be able to ever play the game again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 I don't think this is about the CAP HIT they would take for releasing him....I think it is about paying out 28 million REAL dollars for someone that might not be able to ever play the game again. It's both. I think Irsay might be loyal enough to write that check. But the ramifications on the Colts future if Manning is done . . . Plus, he would also then have to pay ANOTHER $14 million+ to Luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's both. I think Irsay might be loyal enough to write that check. But the ramifications on the Colts future if Manning is done . . . Plus, he would also then have to pay ANOTHER $14 million+ to Luck. Man that is a lot of loyalty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I have little doubt Irsay has enough loyalty to pay Manning w/o blinking. It's the cap situation IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 (edited) Wait, so are they on the hook for none of that if they cut him before the bonus hits? Also, I'm kind of curious about what Opie said. Can you eat the 7 million over 4 years, and just trade him to a team on the hook for his base salary? I assume you can't, but cap stuff gets confusing... Yes, they can trade him to another team, but the Colts would have to absorb the cap hit immediately. Whatever is left of his bonuses goes immediately on the Colts cap. If they cut him before March 8, they still have to take a cap hit for his signing bonus (and a $3 million roster bonus this year), but none of that $28 million roster bonus will ever have to be applied, since they didn't pay it. Edited January 4, 2012 by CaptainHook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Man that is a lot of loyalty. I know. That's why I said "might". He loves Peyton though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I know. That's why I said "might". He loves Peyton though. So it is Peyton vs Benji, who does Irsay love more, me I would have a bunch of love for 28 million benjis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 (edited) So it is Peyton vs Benji, who does Irsay love more, me I would have a bunch of love for 28 million benjis That's why I think the Colts are going to release him. Even if he's fine. Even if he can play for two more years. The salary cap ramifications are daunting. Edited January 4, 2012 by CaptainHook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 The Colts could draft Luck and keep some combination of Wayne, Mathis, Garçon if they cut Manning. If they keep Manning and draft Luck, Wayne et al are gone. Irsay won't have enough money left for any other signing bonuses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 They don't need Wayne or Mathis that badly IMO. Again hear what you're saying it may be too hard money wise but worth trying. Nobody else on that team (least on all on D) is so critical that they need them to make a run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Manning contract: 7/30/2011: Signed five-year, $90 million contract. The deal contains $54.4 million guaranteed, including a $20 million signing bonus. 2011: $3.4 million (+ $3 million roster bonus), 2012: $7.4 million (+ $28 million option bonus due 3/8), 2013: $8.4 million, 2014: $9.4 million, 2015: $10.4 million, 2016: Free Agent Cap implications: The $20M signing bonus is split equally at $4M per year each year. No team in the league will trade with IND and absorb that contract given Manning's current injury status. Therefore, the following scenarios are in place: 1) IND cuts Manning before 3/8/12 $16M of the signing bonus accelerates against the 2012 cap. IND saves $7.4M in salary and the $28M option bonus. IND has to absorb the $16M cap hit but actually saves $19.4M net by not paying the 2012 salary and option bonus. 2) IND cuts Manning after 6/1/12 The $16M remaining signing bonus is split evenly between 2012 and 2013. IND does not have to pay the $7.4M in salary but would have to pay the $28M option bonus which would then accelerate and be split between 2012 and 2013. IND has to absorb $22M against the cap in 2012 but saves $7.4M on his salary. IND then has to absorb $22M in a 2013 cap hit. 3) IND keeps Manning on at the terms above. 2012 cap hit: $18.4M; 2013 cap hit: $19.4M; 2014 cap hit: $20.4M; 2015 cap hit: $21.4M 4) IND keeps Manning and cuts him after 6/1/13: 2012 cap hit: $18.4M; 2013 cap hit: $16.5M; 2014 cap hit: $16.5M IND's option is pretty obvious, IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 If Joe Montana can be let go, so can Manning. Wasn't Montana traded to the Chiefs? Yes he was let go, after some years plagued by injury and then Young taking over. Similar situation, but still pretty big differences. I'm just wondering how the average Joe Colts (or NFL in general) fan will respond if he is released, and of course the media frenzie including "he was dumped, how unfair, what a bad team, etc." I know that intelligent fans will understand, but they are the minority. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 ...I don't think anyone, fan or not will be able to fault them if and when they part ways. mark this post and get back to me if they send Manning packing and Luck sucks for the 1st 10-12 games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CowboyGal2011 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I have little doubt Irsay has enough loyalty to pay Manning w/o blinking. You don't seem to understand how this business works. You don't pay someone that kind of dough cause you're nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Never said otherwise. I wasn't talking about "the business" in general, but Irsay in particular. From everything I've seen and heard his loyalty to Manning is exceptionally high and understandably so. I'm not saying he'll do it but would not be surprised if he does and I think he will try hard to find a way. That said he may see the financial realities and do otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Looking at the contract and all the cap implications you have to think the Colts management had some idea how they were going to handle this. While nobody really knew he'd be out the whole year, there had to be some concern of whether he'd be ok and be the same guy. Thus the $28 million roster bonus for 2012. As this year progressed horribly and they seemed likely to end up with the #1 pick and Luck, you'd think the picture became more clear to them. Does the firing of the Polians provide any insight? Were they going to fight to keep Manning or not release him to avoid fan backlash? Or were they more inclined to want to release him and Isray is against that? Or just a general changing of the guard, and no real impact on the Manning decision? Interesting predicament, and seems that from the beginning the structure of the contract had to show some outline of their future plans contingent on Manning's status. Since he's unknown, the prudent choice would be to release him. However if they don't that doesn't mean they aren't still drafting Luck (but may be more willing to trade that pick). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Never said otherwise. I wasn't talking about "the business" in general, but Irsay in particular. From everything I've seen and heard his loyalty to Manning is exceptionally high and understandably so. I'm not saying he'll do it but would not be surprised if he does and I think he will try hard to find a way. That said he may see the financial realities and do otherwise. Yeah, there's loyalty, as in Irsay already scratched him a check for $20M 6 months ago, and loyalty as in ANOTHER $28M without knowing if he can even play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TripleW64 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Financially speaking and long-term cap ramifications, the Colts would be smart to release him. Even if he passes a physical later on, with that type of injury, he is one hit away from being on IR again. It's a lot of money to risk on an injured and older player (36 next season). There is no guarantee that he will be able to perform up to $28million standards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furd Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 36 years old. 2 neck surgeries last year, one a cervical fusion, that caused him to miss an entire season. You can't count on him lasting a year. If he lasts next year, you can't count on him to be as good as he was in 2010. Throw in a sh*tty team that isn't going to seriously contend for the Super Bowl next year even if Manning plays every game. I think that the answer is obvious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 36 years old. 2 neck surgeries last year, one a cervical fusion, that caused him to miss an entire season. You can't count on him lasting a year. If he lasts next year, you can't count on him to be as good as he was in 2010.If he plays, I think you probably can. Remember who we're talking about and I'm not trying to just "gush" about him, but he is very much the Ironman type, plus he rarely gets hit, plus this is his neck, not his knee or shoulder. His age is IMO a modest factor at most again because of who we are talking about. If his neck is good enough to play, there's no reason to think he won't be at or very near the same levels. Throw in a sh*tty team that isn't going to seriously contend for the Super Bowl next year even if Manning plays every game.Because.......? You mean the same team that contends every year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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