Can Peyton throw 50+ TD's this year?

[Bill Swerski]

Not WaterMan (who is a Falcons fan instead of a Pats fan)

 

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I'm not so sure about that. WaterMan spends more time here bashing Manning and Republicans than being an actual fan of anything.

[Rovers]

I have to laugh at the Manning bashers, saying he and the coaching staff shouldn't "focus" on plays that didn't work last year. Who said, first off, that they were "focused" on this? This film review makes you think they haven't studied the NE game films? This is something that every team does, every year. Besides that, it was one of the coaches that brought it up, and Manning was questioned about it. Reviewing plays that didn't work is now something teams should NOT do? Studying the films also showed one play that was only called 20 times but resulted in 15 TD's. This is just another chance for people that hate Manning to take stupid pot shots.

 

Vet, I'm not even sure what the heck yer talkin about.

[Caveman_Nick]

It's not just the TDs.  He never misses games.  He isn't dependant on one stud WR for production, which makes his production less prone to a drop off if one specific WR gets hurt.  There is credible running threat in Edge that keeps defenses from playing against the pass all the time.  He threw only 10 INTs last year (one of the lowest number of any the QBs to play the whole season) in 497 attempts.  That's only about 2 in every hundred throws; less than 1 a game.  He had the 4th most completions (336) and 3rd most yards (4557).  So even if his TD totals don't tickle 50 this year, he's still an extraordinarily low-risk, consistent player.  It's just that he's got that 50 TD upside attached to him, as well. 

 

Simply put, there *might* be other 1st round pick candidates with more upside, but they all carry more risk than Manning (McGahee and Holmes are a good examples).  But no other 1st round pick candidate has lower risk, except perhaps Tomlinson.

 

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What you say about scoring dependability is true, and something I always consider very heavily in the first 3 rounds of a draft.

 

Here's the problem with taking a QB in the first half of round one, though...

 

Regardless of what the QB does, you have no sense of scoring depndability at the RB1 spot. I agree that there are players that are far riskier, and I tend to avoid big risk in my drafts as well. I just think that the risk from, say,

 

Proposed rough picks at the 5 spot #1: Jamal Lewis, Kevin Jones, Andre Johnson, A Gates, D Branch, T Green

 

Is less than

 

Proposed rough picks at the 5 spot #2: P Manning, D Foster, R Brown, D Mason, D Branch, J Witten

 

Or for consistency's sake: P Manning, Kevin Jones, R Brown*, A Gates, D Branch, Keary Colbert*

 

* Pick your own third round RB or 6th round WR crapshoot.

 

Of course these are totally hypothetical picks, but I don't think any of them are huge reaches (Except maybe Ronnie Brown...pick your own # 29 RB)

 

I guess my point is that you really need to have a good, hard sense of what you are doing if you are going to pick a QB that early, regardless of what he's going to do, That and you need a few good back-up plans.

 

I just feel better about having a depandable backfield and a pack QB than a stud QB and who knows what in the backfield.

 

This year I will almost certainly draft RB, RB, RB in the first three rounds in leagues that start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, PK, DEF

Edited June 9, 2005 by Caveman_Nick

[yo mama]

What you say about scoring dependability is true, and something I always consider very heavily in the first 3 rounds of a draft.

 

Here's the problem with taking a QB in the first half of round one, though...

 

Regardless of what the QB does, you have no sense of scoring depndability at the RB1 spot.  I agree that there are players that are far riskier, and I tend to avoid big risk in my drafts as well.  I just think that the risk from, say,

 

Proposed rough picks at the 5 spot #1: Jamal Lewis, Kevin Jones, Andre Johnson, A Gates, D Branch, T Green

 

Is less than 

 

Proposed rough picks at the 5 spot #2: P Manning, D Foster, R Brown, D Mason, D Branch, J Witten

 

Of course these are totally hypothetical picks, but I don't think any of them are huge reaches (Except maybe Ronnie Brown...pick your own # 29 RB)

 

I guess my point is that you really need to have a good, hard sense of what you are doing if you are going to pick a QB that early, regardless of what he's going to do,  That and you need a few good back-up plans.

 

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I've got no real argument with your logic, Nick.

 

My thinking is that I'd use my 2nd round pick on a RB, regardless. If I go RB in the first round he'd be my #2; if I went Manning in the 1st he'd be my #1. So the 2nd round is a push and irrelovant in my mind.

 

In a simplistic example, the correct analysis would be: is Manning + your #2 RB drafted in the 3rd round better than say Lewis in the 1st + Trent Green in the 3rd round? (I think we can agree Green will be there in the middle of the 3rd, though I concede that in many leagues he will slip farther).

 

I dunno, maybe something like: Manning, Rudi J., and Curtis Martin vs. Jamal Lewis, Rudi J., and Trent Green. (This part is very subjective, I realize).

 

Maybe, maybe not. But even if the projected aggregate points would be the same, I'd take the combo with Manning because I attribute less risk to him than Lewis, and feel that the crop of RBs is deeper this year than last.

 

Now, if you could be assured of finding Trent Green in an even later round, then perhaps Manning in the first makes less sense. But Green went in the mid 3rd in my local last year and early 4th in my BOTH league, and I don't see that changing after a very nice year on Green's part in 04.

[CaptainHook]

Call me crazy, but shouldn't the Colts focus on advancing through the playoffs rather than how many TD's manning throws.  Maybe they need to tweak their team philosophy just a tad and control the clock more so they're ready for those close games in January.

 

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Yes. I'm sure the entire coaching staff is just sitting around every day trying to come up with ways to get more TD's from Manning.

[Rovers]

I too, Nick won't argue the RB, RB logic either. In the draft I mentioned, taking Manning at 1.3, I came back with Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan in the next two rounds. Will the differential between Manning, and say T Green be more than the differential between Martin and Jordan vs. let's say Lewis or Portis and Martin? To simplify, it's really Manning vs. Green and Jordan vs. a Lewis or Portis. That depends a lot on what you think of Jordan, of course. I believe Jordan is good for 1400 combined and 8 to 10 TD's. I figure Lewis for 1700 combined and 10 to 12 TD's. Thats more or less 42 points.

 

Now, if one projects both Green and Manning to again pass for close to the same yardage (they were both near 4500 last year) it boils down to TD's. If Green passes for 30 (3 more than last year) and Manning gets 45 (4 less than last year) , even with 4 points per passing TD that is a differential of 60 points.

 

The overall point differential is 18 points. I believe it will be even more, as I think I've used some very conservative numbers, giving Green more TD's than last year, and Manning fewer. With the "improved" KC defense, it's quite likely that Green's passing yardage and TD's will take a dip. That would make the differential that much bigger.

 

The RB, RB strategy is tried and true, and is probably the safer way to go. I just felt that safe might not win that league, and went with Manning. Where I did get hurt later in that draft was when I waited too long for a third RB. I could have gotten Staley in the fifth, and ended up with Faulk in the sixth instead. But, that was a seperate mistake. I still like Manning where I took him.

[Caveman_Nick]

I dunno, maybe something like: Manning, Rudi J., and Curtis Martin vs. Jamal Lewis, Rudi J., and Trent Green.  (This part is very subjective, I realize).

 

.......

 

Now, if you could be assured of finding Trent Green in an even later round, then perhaps Manning in the first makes less sense.  But Green went in the mid 3rd in my local last year and early 4th in my BOTH league, and I don't see that changing after a very nice year on Green's part in 04.

 

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I too, Nick won't argue the RB, RB logic either. In the draft I mentioned, taking Manning at 1.3, I came back with Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan in the next two rounds. Will the differential between Manning, and say T Green be more than the differential between Martin and Jordan vs. let's say Lewis or Portis and Martin?  To simplify, it's really Manning vs. Green and Jordan vs. a Lewis or Portis. That depends a lot on what you think of Jordan, of course. I believe Jordan is good for 1400 combined and 8 to 10 TD's. I figure Lewis for 1700 combined and 10 to 12 TD's. Thats more or less 42 points.

 

......

 

The RB, RB strategy is tried and true, and is probably the safer way to go. I just felt that safe might not win that league, and went with Manning. Where I did get hurt later in that draft was when I waited too long for a third RB. I could have gotten Staley in the fifth, and ended up with Faulk in the sixth instead. But, that was a seperate mistake. I still like Manning where I took him.

 

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People in different leagues have different drafting styles for certain. There is absolutely no chance I am taking Trent Green in the third in any fantasy draft. I think I can do as well as green with a QBBC approach on my team with a few later round QBs.

 

I look at any draft and think that the pack QBs (5-12) will go in rounds 7-9. I am targeting one of those guys, and will hold off as long as I can if I can get a good skill player instead or a good risk/reward rookie RB. In this regard, I don't think comparing T Green and 2 RBs versus Peyton and 2 other RBs is a fair or accurate comparison. T Green would not make it onto my roster before Rd6, which is why I looked at this through a top 6 rounds POV.

 

Yo...don't forget as well that there is virtually no chance that Rudi Johnson will be around at 2.07. Heck, there's probably no chance that Kevin Jones is around at 2.07. You are probably picking at that point from a list like: D Foster, C Martin, R Brown, D Staley, L Suggs, C Brown, L Jordan, Tiki, Westbrook, M Bennett, C Benson, W Dunn, M Pittmann, K Barlow, C Anderson, M Shipp, T Bell. One of those guys will be your #1 RB for selecting Manning. Westbrook, martin, and Jordan stand out...but I am not betting my season on one of those guys.

 

Basically, you become the Colts by picking manning in the top 5 picks. Your whole season depends on him, and it will probably fall short. I played in 5 leagues last year. The manning owner did not win one. This is enormously significant IMHO because 1) Manning was a second round pick in almost every one of those drafts and 2) Manning had the best statistical season of a QB ever last year.

 

So this year he will get picked higher, and who knows if he will repeat the season that wasn't good enough in what I competed against last year. He's a late first round pick at best IMHO.

[Bill Swerski]

I agree that drafting Manning (who will go in the top 5 in most leagues this year) over a RB is not a good strategy. With RBBC becoming more and more of a problem in FF each season, most of the solid featured backs are gone by the end of the first round. The team that takes Manning at 1.03 would be lucky to have Duce Staley at 2.08. And that owner will almost certainly have a RBBC back as his #2. Even if Peyton throws 50 TDs this season, that lack of RB production is going to kill the owner at some point.

 

I hoped that it would never come to this, but it seems that the only way around this problem is for leagues to replace the #2 RB position with RB/WR flex or to use a "team RB."

[Skilly]

Manning is a great qb, there's no doubt about it. He will go to the HOF.

 

But he'd better learn how to play football in the snow.

[Rovers]

Here is the draft I was talking about.

 

1.01 1 Los Gigantes Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB

1.02 2 Gilthorp Alexander, Shaun SEA RB

1.03 3 Rovers Manning, Peyton IND QB

1.04 4 Frazia James, Edgerrin IND RB

1.05 5 Sarge Holmes, Priest KCC RB

1.06 6 Darin3 Dillon, Corey NEP RB

1.07 7 Spain Lewis, Jamal BAL RB

1.08 8 Steel Bunz McGahee, Willis BUF RB

1.09 9 Perchoutofwater Culpepper, Daunte MIN QB

1.10 10 Digital Dan McAllister, Deuce NOS RB

1.11 11 Keg Moss, Randy OAK WR

1.12 12 Rajncajn Barber, Tiki NYG RB

 

Round 2

 

2.01 13 Rajncajn Davis, Domanick HOU RB Fri May 13 1:18:12 p.m. ET 2005

2.02 14 Keg Portis, Clinton WAS RB Fri May 13 1:23:11 p.m. ET 2005

2.03 15 Digital Dan Jones, Kevin DET RB Fri May 13 1:23:11 p.m. ET 2005

2.04 16 Perchoutofwater Owens, Terrell PHI WR Fri May 13 1:23:11 p.m. ET 2005

2.05 17 Steel Bunz Westbrook, Brian PHI RB Fri May 13 1:48:05 p.m. ET 2005

2.06 18 Spain Green, Ahman GBP RB Fri May 13 1:48:05 p.m. ET 2005

2.07 19 Darin3 Jones, Julius DAL RB Fri May 13 1:48:59 p.m. ET 2005 Holy freakin moly.

2.08 20 Sarge Johnson, Rudi CIN RB Fri May 13 1:55:43 p.m. ET 2005 darn you Darin

2.09 21 Frazia Jackson, Steven STL RB Fri May 13 1:59:35 p.m. ET 2005

2.10 22 Rovers Martin, Curtis NYJ RB Fri May 13 2:12:02 p.m. ET 2005

2.11 23 Gilthorp Taylor, Fred JAC RB Fri May 13 2:12:02 p.m. ET 2005

2.12 24 Los Gigantes Johnson, Chad CIN WR Fri May 13 2:12:02 p.m. ET 2005

 

 

3.01 25 Los Gigantes Harrison, Marvin IND WR Fri May 13 2:12:02 p.m. ET 2005

3.02 26 Gilthorp Holt, Torry STL WR Fri May 13 2:15:10 p.m. ET 2005

3.03 27 Rovers Jordan, Lamont OAK RB Fri May 13 2:18:23 p.m. ET 2005

3.04 28 Frazia McNabb, Donovan PHI QB Fri May 13 2:22:11 p.m. ET 2005

3.05 29 Sarge Brown, Chris TEN RB Fri May 13 2:24:39 p.m. ET 2005

3.06 30 Darin3 Gates, Antonio SDC TE Fri May 13 2:25:51 p.m. ET 2005

3.07 31 Spain Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE Fri May 13 2:27:07 p.m. ET 2005

3.08 32 Steel Bunz Brown, Ronnie MIA RB Fri May 13 2:40:16 p.m. ET 2005 The reach of ALL reaches here....LOL. Actually...VERY nice upside....we are taking a chance on this kid! ;-)

3.09 33 Perchoutofwater Williams, Carnell TBB RB Fri May 13 2:40:16 p.m. ET 2005

3.10 34 Digital Dan Benson, Cedric CHI RB Fri May 13 3:12:43 p.m. ET 2005 for dan, per phone. and he knows hes taking 3 Rbs in 3 rounds. :P

3.11 35 Keg Bulluck, Keith TEN LB Fri May 13 3:12:43 p.m. ET 2005

3.12 36 Rajncajn Walker, Javon GBP WR Fri May 13 3:12:43 p.m. ET 2005

 

 

4.01 37 Rajncajn Johnson, Andre HOU WR Fri May 13 3:12:43 p.m. ET 2005

4.02 38 Keg Edwards, Donnie SDC LB Fri May 13 3:12:43 p.m. ET 2005

4.03 39 Digital Dan Lewis, Ray BAL LB Fri May 13 3:14:00 p.m. ET 2005 per Dan,

4.04 40 Perchoutofwater Arrington, J.J. ARI RB Fri May 13 3:14:00 p.m. ET 2005

4.05 41 Steel Bunz Ward, Hines PIT WR Fri May 13 3:26:55 p.m. ET 2005

4.06 42 Spain Horn, Joe NOS WR Fri May 13 3:26:55 p.m. ET 2005

4.07 43 Darin3 Wayne, Reggie IND WR Fri May 13 3:37:55 p.m. ET 2005

4.08 44 Sarge Jackson, Darrell SEA WR Fri May 13 3:48:34 p.m. ET 2005

4.09 45 Frazia Clayton, Michael TBB WR Fri May 13 3:49:26 p.m. ET 2005

4.10 46 Rovers Vilma, Jonathan NYJ LB Fri May 13 3:53:19 p.m. ET 2005

4.11 47 Gilthorp Harrison, Rodney NEP S Fri May 13 3:53:19 p.m. ET 2005

4.12 48 Los Gigantes Bell, Tatum DEN RB Fri May 13 3:53:19 p.m. ET 2005

 

I don't see either Martin or Jordan as RBBC. Secondly, if I had taken Holmes (scares me, injury risk w/ a solid backup) or Edge, or Portis, or Lewis, I still would have ended up with Martin as one of my RB's. So, it is fair, I think to make the T Green/Manning comparison vs. Jordan and say, Portis. Now, you can make the case that I could have used my third round pick for a WR? OK, I can see that as a part of this look at differentials.

 

Moss, Owens and Holt were gone. So, take your pick of the other WR's, and compare that to what I would have gotten a round later. We are talking about the difference say between M Harrison, J Walker or Reggie Wayne vs. a Burleson or Horn or Ward. I see these WR's are part of the same tier, or group. I don't see any real differential here.

 

Now, this was an IDP draft, and the the 4th and 5th rounds saw a huge run on defensive players. T Green most likely would have gone in the 4th round, if it weren't for the IDP run. There would have been a QB run in the 4th, when guys like Bulger, Green, maybe Plummer, Favre and Collins would have gone.

 

Manning to me, just stands out FF-wise this year as head and shoulders above all the other QB's. I took some heat for that pick, but felt somewhat vindicated when I saw this:

Round One

 

 

1.01 KFFL - LaDainian Tomlinson, SD RB Extra value in points-per-reception leagues.

 

1.02. Gregg Rosenthal, RotoWorld.com – Shaun Alexander, SEA RB - Trade rumors a concern.

 

1.03 The Sporting News – Priest Holmes, KC RB - Not falling as far as we thought.

 

1.04 The Huddle – Peyton Manning, IND QB - Expect him to go mid-first in most Drafts.

 

 

 

 

1.04 The Huddle – Peyton Manning, IND QB - Expect him to go mid-first in most Drafts.

 

Yep, DMD took Manning at 1.4. Nice to know I'm not alone in my thinking here. That might have been WW, but either way, I still think it was a gutsy pick, and I don't think I hurt my RB corp to the point where it will cost me as much as you guys seem to think it will. Since this draft started as a mock, but turned into a league, we'll see how it works out. In my local, and in my BOTH league, the Manning owner did in fact win the Supe. Doing this once was enough though, I hope I am not faced with the same tough choice in the rest of my leagues. I'd rather pick 1 or 2, or pick after Manning is off the board. I would not want to take this gamble on ALL of my FF rosters.

[Caveman_Nick]

Funny...the RBs available to you at that point are exactly what I was talking about.

 

C-Mart, L Jordan, F Taylor (done), C Brown, R Brown, C Benson, C Williams, T Bell, Etc..

 

Martin and Jordan could absolutely have great seasons, and there are no absolutes. I just personally wouldn't be comfortable with that as a start.

[Rovers]

Nick, yes, you were right about what RB's would still be there. I was very happy with Martin and Jordan there. I like both of them over quite a few RB's that went earlier..... Davis, Westbrook, Green, Jackson. Even maybe J Jones, with A Train and Barber in Dallas. Davis, Westbrook and Jackson will all share the ball more than Martin or Jordan IMHO. Geeze, even Taylor went before Jordan!

 

I'm still in the RB, RB camp, but I thought this was worth a shot. Yup, I'll live or die with Manning, but there are few players that can almost garantee being #1 in thier position in the whole NFL the way he can. The loss of Moss and the questionable status of Owens makes it a lock. I'll bring this back up, either way, later in the year. We'll see how it goes.

[WaterMan]

I'm not so sure about that.  WaterMan spends more time here bashing Manning and Republicans than being an actual fan of anything.

 

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Well I have kept those Michael Vick is God threads going strong.

[WaterMan]

Apparently WaterMan has resurfaced with another alias.  Nice try, dumbass.  What is this, your seventh or eigth now?  You're giving Jennifer Garner a run for her money.

 

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I've had 3.

 

But it feels like around here I'm in that episode of The Chappelle Show where a crack dealer goes through the same criminal system as a CEO of some big business.

[CaptainHook]

I've had 3.

 

But it feels like around here I'm in that episode of The Chappelle Show where a crack dealer goes through the same criminal system as a CEO of some big business.

 

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You're the crack dealer.

[Last Plane Out]

Well I have kept those Michael Vick is God threads going strong.

 

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Ron Mexico - God of Herpes

[WaterMan]

You're the crack dealer. 

 

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Oh man! Didn't see that one coming!

[Ron Mexico]

Ron Mexico - God of Herpes

 

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A God... really? I'm so flattered.

[Bill Swerski]

A God... really?  I'm so flattered.

 

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So, what is this? Number nine? Jennifer Garner's getting jealous.

[Jrick35]

Of course the Colts coaching staff and players are focusing on how to score more TD's. They obviously did not score enough the last 2 years. In fact 1 more TD at the right time in each of the past 2 Regular Seasons may have led the Colts to 2 Super Bowls.

 

For the past 2 seasons Indy has finished 12-4 to New Englands 14-2 and in both seasons the Colts lost a regular season game to the Pats by 4 points or less. Had the Colts won those 2 Games, with all else being equal then both teams would have finished 13-3 with the Tie Breaker for both seasons going to the Colts. Now I am not living on if's here, I am merely looking at what the Colts really need to focus on which is Homefield Advantage throughout the playoffs. that means having the best regular season record in the AFC, that means scoring more TD's and winning more games.

 

There are a few ways to accomplish that, 1 is to continue to improve their defense, another is to figure out which plays worked last year and which didn't and the other is to figure out a way for Edgerinn James to not cost them the game against the Pats in the regular season.

 

A lot of people like to say Manning doesn't play well in big games. Last year's season opener was a big game. Everyone knew that the winner of the week 1 Game between the Colts and the Pats would probably end up with Homefield Advantage in the playoffs, so even though it was week 1 it was a huge game. So was the Nov 30 game in 2003. That game was pretty much for Homefield advantage as well, another huge game.

 

But, you see it's not really Manning who played poorly in those games, it's James. In 2003 the Colts lost to the Pats 38-34, in the regular season. In that game Manning went 29 of 48 for 278 yds, 4 TD's and only 1 INT. James carried the ball 25 times for a measely 88 yds, that's only 3.5 yds per carry. The running game was non-existent and yet Manning still put up great stats and nearly won the game.

 

Then last year in New England the Colts lost another regular season game, this time 27-24. The defense played better and James was much more effective gaining over 140 yds on about 30 carries and Manning had another very good game connecting on 16 of 29 for 256 yds, 2 TD's and 1 INT. But if you remember James had two very costly fumbles in that game, 1 at the NE 18 yd line and the other at the NE 1.

 

If the Colts had won those games then the road to the Super Bowl would have gone through Indy and it is very likely that the Colts would have gone to the Super Bowl in at least 1 of those years if not both.

 

And it was not due to poor play by Manning that they lost those games. It was either the defense, as in 2003 giving up 38 points, or James turnovers as in 2004. But everyone just wants to say Manning can't play well in big games and that he is being selfish in trying to figure out how to score more TD's.

 

Get a clue people, Manning is an exceptional talent at QB, and he quite possibly has the greatest understanding of the game of anyone that has ever played QB in the NFL and as soon as the Defense catches up, and I think it will this year, then NE and the rest of the NFL had better watch out.

 

And just so you know I think Brady is exceptional as well. I just don't know if he has the understanding of the game that Manning has. I wonder if the receivers in NE would look better as a group if Manning were throwing to them? I think his understanding of the game and the Colts offense is why Stokely and Wayne have emerged the way they have. I'm not sure Wayne is really good enough to be a #1 WR on a lot of teams. I just think he is excelling because of the situation he is in. I think of Wayne as being kind of like Johnnie Morton when he was opposite Herman Moore in Detroit.

 

Mannings ability to find the open receiver and then to get him the ball is unmatched and for people to overlook that and make a generalized statement like, "Manning doesn't play well in big games" shows a lack of understanding of the game on their part.

 

Much the same as people who try to minimize what Tom Brady has done as QB of the Patriots. There have been a lot of QB's who have played for teams with better defenses than the Patriots have had without winning 3 super bowls in 4 years. The Ravens Defense was simply awesome for 4 - 5 years and they still only managed to win 1 super bowl.

 

These are two great QB's but they are great for different reasons. But before we decide which one is greater than the other let's let their careers play out and just enjoy the show.

Edited June 14, 2005 by Jrick35

[Bill Swerski]

Good post, Jrick.

[Jrick35]

Good post, Jrick. 

 

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Thanks Bill

[WaterMan]

Mannings ability to find the open receiver and then to get him the ball is unmatched and for people to overlook that and make a generalized statement like, "Manning doesn't play well in big games" shows a lack of understanding of the game on their part.

He plays well in big commercials though.

[Randall]

Possible? 50? Yup. I figure more like 42, but 50? doable.

 

 

 

The final tally is 31.

[kryptonite]

And I had no problem winning two fantasy bowls this year with PM as my QB.

 

And BTW, let us not forget the...I think it is....4 rushing TDs.....