Holmes or Manning?

[Dowzer]

I have the third round pick and figure that LT and SA will be gone first.

 

Preist has risk, but was on a record pace last season before injury.

 

Manning had a record year is unlikely to repeat, plus picking a QB in the first round usually screws up your draft later.

 

Any thoughts? Maybe I'll just take Edge and be safe...

 

 

 

Standard 6 pt TD league; 1 point = 30 passing, 10 rushing, 10 receiving

[Piranha]

I would take Edge 3rd.

Manning is a good value at 3rd, but that does hurt the rest of your draft.

Priest, IMO, is a risk.

[Roo]

In a 10 team, maybe take Manning. Depends on the skill of the other coaches. Not in a 12. You'll be hurting too much at RB.

 

If you happen to be in a 2 QB league, that changes everything, and he's definately a good pick at 3.

[Dowzer]

10 man league. 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1D

 

I'm actually the new guy in this league, but I've been playing fantasy for 5 years now. So I don't know their skill yet.

[Roo]

I'd honestly try to get a feel for their skill and any potential homers, who might take TO or McNabb or Holt (or whomever).

 

I am very familiar with the 3 hole in a 10-team (I have the same pick, but with 2 QBS).

 

If you mock it out, it gets very touchy, in regards to what RB talent is left for your 2nd and 3rd picks. If you assume that Manning/Pepper/Moss are taken prior to your second pick, that leaves you with choices like Cmart and Ahman as your #1 RB.

 

If any other non-RBs are taken prior to your second pick, you will have a good shot at guys like Rudi Tiki or Julius.

 

You have to make a call. What RBs do you feel comfortable with as your #1? And then, do you think they will fall to you?

[ebartender]

I am in a simialr situation, but not exactly the same. I have the 3rd pick but it is in a 12 team league. Scoring is 6pts per any TD and 1 point per 10 pass/rush/rec yards. I am trying to decide between Manning, Holmes, and Edge. Due to the scoring system I am heavily leaning toward Manning.

[Doc Holliday]

The number 3 pick is the worst pick in the draft this year to me(which means I will end up getting it next week probably) I right now would take Priest Holmes and then come around in the 5th or 6th round and get Larry Johnson.

[gowest]

Glad to see this post, 'cause I'm in the same spot (number 3 pick), though I'm in a 12 team league. I've pretty much ruled out Manning, because it messes up your RB situation too bad, IMO. If I was at #4 or #5, I'd maybe take him, but not at #3.

 

The choice in my view is b/w Edge and Priest. The smaller the league, the more heavily I'd recommend Priest over Edge, because you're gonna have to take a chance to win. With larger leagues, like a 14+ team league, I'd lean more toward Edge, because you need someone to rely on, even though he may not be the best (not as many TDs, etc.). In the middle -- my league, a 12 teamer -- it's more difficult. I'm still leaning toward Priest. The main downside is I know I'll end up grabbing LJ with my fifth round (or so) pick. You can't win leagues without taking a chance. When Priest is on, he's freakin' ridiculous. When he's not, well, that's why you handcuff LJ. I look forward to hearing from others. (By the way, there's a lengthy post already about Edge vs. Priest, with folks pretty much split, with maybe a few extra votes for Edge. You might want to check it out.)

[NavinRJohnson]

Glad to see this post, 'cause I'm in the same spot (number 3 pick), though I'm in a 12 team league.  I've pretty much ruled out Manning, because it messes up your RB situation too bad, IMO.  If I was at #4 or #5, I'd maybe take him, but not at #3.

 

This is my strategy as well in a 12 team league with PaTDs = 6pts. LT, SAlex, Priest, Manning.

 

In your 10 team league, I think you can feel safe taking Manning at #3 cause you should still be able to get good serviceable RBs to compliment Mannings 10,000,000 points.

[Roo]

It is true too, that KC has a brutal schedule to run against - normally I wouldn't put much stock in that, but they are seriously dead last in the Huddle article for ease of schedule.

[kwolf68]

Take Manning. There are only 2 other QBs who will score near as much as Manning. There is a far greater drop off from Manning to the 10th Quarterback than from Holmes/any RB to the 10th running back.

Edited August 23, 2005 by kwolf68

[Kung-fu Midgets]

Take Manning. There are only 2 other QBs who will score near as much as Manning. There is a far greater drop off from Manning to the 10th Quarterback than from Holmes/any RB to the 10th running back.

 

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Take Priest and ride that touchdown scoring machine as long as you can till he gets hurt. Make sure to grab LJ as well. In a 10 team league you still might get someone like J. Jones, K. Jones, etc. in the 2nd round... and a QB like McNabb or Bulger... or a Tier 1 WR.

[blips]

I am in a simialr situation, but not exactly the same.  I have the 3rd pick but it is in a 12 team league.  Scoring is 6pts per any TD and 1 point per 10 pass/rush/rec yards.  I am trying to decide between Manning, Holmes, and Edge.  Due to the scoring system I am heavily leaning toward Manning.

 

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With that scoring system I would go with Manning. 1 POINT per 10 yards PASSING!!!! That and 6 point TD's heavily favors the QB.

 

 

With a 10 team league I would go with Manning. With a 12, it depends on the point system. I saw what Manning could do for 4pts TD and 1pt / 25 yards passing. I cleaned up my league last year. And I even traded for Manning after week 3. I am a firm believer of drafting RB, RB and rarely differentiate from that. But after picking up Manning last year I might change my tune.

Edited August 24, 2005 by blips

[SuperBalla]

 

Manning...is this a joke? Manning is a point machine.

Edited August 24, 2005 by SuperBalla

[gowest]

It's certainly not clear cut enough to ask whether this is a joke, SB. Sure Manning scores a ton of points based on his scoring system, but so will the other QBs. It's all about relative value. I still say he should go with the RB.

[T_bone65]

10 man league.  1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1D

 

I'm actually the new guy in this league, but I've been playing fantasy for 5 years now. So I don't know their skill yet.

 

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I joined a new 10 team league last year and had the 4th pick, I took A Green and then believe it or not Manning made it back to me in round 2. It all depends on your scoring system and how much everyone in your league likes RB's. I tlloks like they may even go WR heavy since you need to start 3 of them. Just my .02 if it is even worth that

[gowest]

For what it's worth, since yesterday I've been more strongly considering taking Manning over Priest. The main thing that irks me with Priest is the need to take LJ. Knowing the guys in my league, someone very well may reach to take LJ just ahead of me. I was looking at the RBs who would be available for my 2nd and 3rd picks, and there should be some decent guys there like Rudi Johnson, Lamont Jordan, Westbrook, C-Mart, etc. If I end up taking Manning, I'll probably draft a ton of RBs (esp. guys with upside) in the hopes that a couple of them will pan out as studs.

[AO]

Take Edge or Manning....cant go wrong with either. Please answer mine

[Skrappy1]

Take Priest and ride that touchdown scoring machine as long as you can till he gets hurt.  Make sure to grab LJ as well.  In a 10 team league you still might get someone like J. Jones, K. Jones, etc. in the 2nd round... and a QB like McNabb or Bulger... or a Tier 1 WR.

 

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I cut and pasted this, it's my post from the other forum dealing with this exact situation. It's a tough call for sure. And I am hoping and crossing my fingers I can get one of the Jones boys in the 2nd round too KungFu.

 

"I had the #3 pick in one of my drafts - a 10 team league - where we just started drafting today. I really didn't want the pick and tried trading down (hoping to swap 1st and 2nd round picks with someone) but to no avail.

 

I considered Priest, Edge, Peyton Manning and even Deuce McAllister a bit. I almost pulled the trigger on Petyon but relented and went with Priest. I hate the fact that I'll have to spend another high pick to grab LJ, but the upside with the KC running game was just too good to pass up. How it pans out will almost undoubtedly make or break my season but I felt I had to do it.

 

The only thing I'm hoping is that since it's a 10-teamer, and most of the guys in that league are the fantasy magazine reading types - meaning I don't think they're probably online reading current mocks seeing how high LJ is going - I'm hoping that I can hold off until the 6th or 7th round to grab Johnson. We'll see, but that was my thought process."

[insideout33]

i'm in a 12 team high performance(+pts increase for longer tds incl. QBs;recpts)

going back and forth

was thinking edge

but am now thinking manning

STILL thinking about holmes or deuce!

 

if you're reading this, then you know how i'm feelin

 

with my pt system,

manning/the REST dropoff vs RB ratio,

seeing mocks and along gowest above, the RBs at the 20-26 paired with manning looks like the way to go

 

is this too bad?

manning

rudi/tiki or

green/steve jackson or

jordan/cmart

 

maybe a jjones

maybe dillion

 

just as many questions as with holmes,edge,deuce. a rung higher but you won't have a manning either

 

i'll take myt advice and go with manning

[emandg]

Holmes has to much upside to pass. I personally think he is an every other year player. Hurt last year and crushed the year before that. Same with the 2 years before that. He can handle one solid season at a time and then breaks down. This year he should be a gem and is very much worth the gamble. The slop you pick up after taking Manning first will make you wish you never picked him. And hearing Edge comparisons to Holmes is a joke. Consistency yes - pure fantasy numbers no!