Divisional Weekend Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[whomper]

Just to spice things up a bit, going with a parlay of GB -6.5, IND Money Line, NE Money Line.

 

 

My office doesnt offer NE money lines

Edited January 12, 2008 by whomper

[whomper]

I put a nice play on Sea/GB over 42.5 and I pounded Sea team total over 17.5

[Gdawg]

WAYNE ALLEN ROOT

 

Chairman - New England

Millionaire - Houston Cougars

Money Maker - Boise St

No Limit - Green Bay

Insiders Circle - Boston College

Billionaire - St Louis

[Steeltown Dre]

Good stuff guys and thanks for the weather update Randall.

 

I've got the 2 overs today and leaning strongly at taking GB -7 (will continue comparing that vs. 6.5, but I don't want to spend too much). But, if I do that and have the NE over, my card mirrors Lang, which is a very, very scary thought...

 

Unfortunately, here's Loser Lang w/ his plays:

 

Brandon Lang

 

25 Dime Packers

 

- I know everyone keeps talking about playoff experience, and how much it will make a difference, but you know, since the start of the season I’ve been hearing about Green Bay’s experience – or lack thereof – and how it would be its Achilles’ heel. But three key ingredients have brought this team this far: 1. Brett Favre. 2. Ryan Grant. 3. Defense.

 

 

 

That’s all the experience I need in this game, as I don’t care about Seattle being in the postseason five consecutive seasons and the Packers having been absent from the playoffs since the 2004 season. What matters is the here and now, and the fact remains that quarterback Brett Favre has appeared in 20 playoff games, and will guide this young squad today with no problem.

 

 

 

Remember, this game is on the Frozen Tundra, where the Packers are 14-2 all time in the playoffs, while Seattle’s mark away from home is a bleak 1-7. Need more experience … how about the fact Favre ranks second in postseason history with 34 touchdowns.

 

 

 

As for Grant, he proved critics wrong by showing everyone the Packers do indeed have a rushing game this season, and between the 40s, can be extremely dangerous in taking the pressure off of Favre’s shoulders. In its last game, Green Bay tallied 217 yards on the ground and a modest 177 via air mail, the first time the team gained more rushing yards than passing yards all season. Grant emerged midway through the season and has had five 100-yard games and collected 929 yards since Week 8.

 

 

 

As for the defense, this team has held 10 opponents to 17 points or less, including three of its last four. At home this team is giving up just 14.3 points per game, and I highly doubt we’ll see a letdown with what’s at stake here. Remember, Washington’s defense stepped up last week to stymie Seattle – it wasn’t the offense that got the ‘Hawks all of those 35 points. And that was in Seattle. Let’s lay the chalk in this one, Green Bay rolls here.

 

 

 

5 Dime Jags Over

 

- I’m not going to waste your time singing the praises of the Patriots’ record-setting, fast-break offense. We all know that Brady, Moss and company put up points about as frequently as Pac-Man Jones runs afoul of the law (New England scored 589 points this year, topping the 30-point barrier in 12 of its 16 contests.) So we know the Patriots are going find the end zone multiple times in this game.

 

 

 

What you probably don’t realize is how prolific the Jaguars’ offense has been. Jacksonville has scored at least 24 points in 11 consecutive games, averaging 30.5 points during that stretch. And what do you know, the over is 10-0-1 in those 11 games, with the last seven topping the posted price. The over is also 10-1 in Jacksonville’s last 11 road games, 8-0 in its last eight as a road underdog, 13-3-1 in its last 17 against the AFC, and 4-1 in its last five playoff games.

 

 

 

Meanwhile, for the Patriots, the over is on runs of 16-6 overall, 8-3 at home, 13-5 as a favorite, and 10-3 as a double-digit favorite.

 

 

 

As for this specific total, it is a big one, no question about it. However, eight of Jacksonville’s 17 games have hit at least 50 combined points, including six of the last seven overall and four in a row on the road. Also, New England’s games have reached the 50-point plateau 10 times this year, including that 38-35 season-ending shootout against the Giants on the road two weeks ago.

 

 

 

With no indications of bad weather on the horizon, this has all the makings of what I like to call a Brothel Game: lots of back-and-forth action with little defense and lots of scoring.

[rattsass]

Hmmm. Maybe Lang is desperate and has been reading our thread to help him get out of his slump.

[rattsass]

$$$ pouring in on the Giants. Spread is now down to 7 in some books.

 

Dre, you might get GB -7 if you wait a bit longer too I would think.

[wildcat2334]

snow coming down- bodog has the o/u at 44.5............. think I may have to jump on the under

[Randall]

snow coming down- bodog has the o/u at 44.5............. think I may have to jump on the under

 

 

Yeah but it's very light. No wind. More like drizzle but cold enough to be snow.

[bizkit34]

gb/ sea o/u is up to 44 and hook in nyc already

[Steeltown Dre]

I am very large in the O39.5

 

In games w/ this type of total, here are the avg %s of final scores:

 

37 5.6%

34 4.1%

45 3.9%

51 3.6%

41 3.3%

33 3.3%

30 3.2%

48 3.2%

44 3.2%

29 2.8%

27 2.8%

43 2.6%

38 2.5%

23 2.4%

35 2.4%

49 2.4%

47 2.4%

31 2.3%

55 2.2%

54 2.2%

40 2.1%

 

I'm really contemplating taking about 1/4 of my play and putting it on the U 45.5 (I'm seeing U45 for -110 at some outlets, so I would buy .5 points).

 

I still like the over, even w/ the mild flurries, but as you can see, quite frequently these games land on 45, 41, 44 or 43. This way, I'm really, really hoping for an over, but if by some chance we don't have an over, I'm only losing 1/2 of my huge play.

 

And there would be a very good chance to see a middle. Not made up my mind yet....

 

So for right now, I've got my GB and NE overs at very good numbers, and I also did make a play on GB -7.

 

For my competition, I have both overs but haven't made a play on GB, because you can't buy points and the only play is GB -9 or Sea -9. I think GB -9 will hit, but not willing to make the play and would feel burned should GB win by 7 or 8 and I lose the play. I probably will be playing NE in the contest but not putting other plays on NE.

 

Good luck today guys, I really hope we all do well. If not, we've always got tomorrow and the CC. But let's think positive and get paid tonight!

[Steeltown Dre]

As far as teasers, I did add Budin's teaser and put a 7 point 2 teamer on GB/Ind, and I'm on both about medium.

[budlitebrad]

Good call on the over today.

[xMRogers]

Dre - not sure what your system is, but I LOVE IT.....

 

19-1 - heck, Lang makes a million a year on 1-19, so you could should be able to sell that for about 5 Mill....

[Randall]

Good call on the over today.

 

 

No kiddng. 45 points in the 1st half.

[Gopher]

Glad I stayed away from the O/U.... Now I just need the Pack to hold on and win by 8 or more.

[Steeltown Dre]

Glad I stayed away from the O/U....

 

Why stay away when there's free money to be had?

 

I am glad I didn't find a good price on the middle attempt, so I left my play as it was.

 

Never had such an easy winner in the playoffs in quite some time. Everyone, regardless if you had O 39.5 or 44.5, should have winning tickets before the half.

 

To be honest, I just made a TON of $$. I'm going to be up huge even if all my other plays lose, I put that much on it. And I'm very glad to help everyone else out who followed. Good luck the rest of the day and week!

[broncosn05]

What do you guys think about NE (-13)?

[whomper]

I had the Pats -3 for the motherfecking first Q..Stopped at the 1 fuggin inch line as time expires

[whomper]

I love Vancouver/ St Louis under 1.5 first period tonight. I also like San Jose/ Anaheim under 1.5 first but I feel very strong about Vacouver/ St Louis under 1.5 first period.

[Steeltown Dre]

I think if you like the Jags, you need to be on the 1st half. You can have game and half bets going, that's fine too. But this setup is good for a 1st half in my opinion. I see + juice at Jags +7.5 first half, see if you can get 8.

...

If NE is up by at least 10 at the half, I figure w/ halftime adjustments, NE can and should win by 13+. If this game is close at the half, I still think NE should win, but may not get the cover. That's why those on Jac should take some on the 1st half, and those on NE might as well lay the number and pray for a cover. This is probably my least favorite game of the weekend to pick a side on.

 

OK guys - went 3-0 yesterday including 1-0 on my huge over in GB/Sea that was over by halftime.

 

If you liked Jac, you should have gotten -11.5 or better, so you would have covered, but if you took my advice, you would have gotten Jac +7.5 or more in the 1st half which was an easy winner as it was tied.

 

So 3-0 on plays I made, 4-0 including that Jac posted play (as advice) on 1st half.

 

I've also got 2 pending teasers, which one needs Ind to win, the other needs them to win by 3.

 

Onto today.

 

I've already got in the Under on Ind/SD and took it for U 48 (bought).

 

Yesterday public lost on Sea but won on Jac and both overs meant public winnings.

 

As you know, Ind is a public play, be even more of a public play is NYG. They are the most lopside play of the day. 69% on Dal, and 60% on Ind.

 

Currently the NYG over is at 66% and Ind over is at 67%.

 

I've got the Under in Ind already, and have these 2 teasers which are working off of Ind. I will go ahead and take Ind -9.5 (buy 0.5) although for not as much as I had on GB last night. It would make sense to reduce exposure on Ind and take SD +10, however I feel Ind is the right side here.

 

Budin's crew is back w/ another teaser today:

 

Steven Budin-CEO

SUNDAY'S PICK

50 DIME 3-TEAM TEASER

 

INDIANAPOLIS

NEW YORK

NEW YORK-DALLAS OVER (after reducing the total by 10 points)

 

 

I think giving NY 10 points should get it done, but I'm not 100% sure if I'm taking this play yet.

 

I really don't see both Ind and NYG covering today. If Ind covers today, I will be taking Dal -6.5.

 

Right now I've got in the Under on Ind/SD (I have it at 48), and Ind -9.5. And the 2 pending teasers.

 

Have not made up my mind yet on the 3rd teaser, and will take Dal -6.5 if Ind covers.

 

Good luck today guys! Will be back if I have anything else to add. Also remember, after going 9-1 thus far in the postseason in posted plays, I would not tail as hard as you can. I usually post my large plays early in the week. The fact that I am playing Ind and possibly Dal but not putting the plays in until today should tell you I'm not as confident in these plays as I was in the Overs last night. But let's think positive!

[Steeltown Dre]

Just saw Lang is on Colts and Cowboys... he tailed me on GB and the NE Over last night, why not the Colts too...

 

Brandon Lang

SUNDAY

 

30 DIME - Colts

 

5 DIME - Cowboys

5 DIME - Lakers

 

Free Picks - Cowboys-Giants Over the Total and West Virginia

 

NOTE: Excited to watch Indy hammer the Chargers today.

Excited about closing the book on winning week #3 in the last 4.

Excited about being just 2 games away from my 16th straight super bowl winner after today.

Lastly, I am excited about the opportunity to keep this winning streak going making 2008 my biggest year

ever.

It is only going to get better. Simple as that and if you stay here, play here, I will make you money long term.

There will be some tough times along the way as there is with anything in life but you can rest assured, if

given the right amount of time, you will be successful with me.

My money management and discipline are second to none and as this year progresses, you will see just how good it is as 2008 will be one of my greatest years ever.

Bottom line, I can't make you go all in long term with me. That is something you have to decide to do on your own.

However, my winning track record speaks for itself backed by an honesty and integrity unmatched by anyone in this industry.

I have never been more excited about a year as I am here in 2008. I mean never.

Considering all I have done in my life, that is a scary statement of confidence there. A scary statement but you know what, that's another thing that separates me from everybody else.

I don't live my life in fear. I live my life seizing every moment of everyday and every opportunity that presents itself and I attack it.....FEARLESS

Now let's go attack this winning Sunday fearless together.

 

30 DIME - Colts

 

Is there a reason we haven’t heard much about the team that has dominated the regular season the past few campaigns, prior to this year, and happened to win the Super Bowl in 2007? I know the Patriots are undefeated, I know that “no one wants to play the Jaguars right now,” and I know all about Romo and Jessica. I also know Eli Manning is out to prove he is a late-season winner. But is there anyone else out there that thinks the Colts are receiving absolutely no respect by being ignored right now?

I watched the Sunday night game between these two, and I can tell you right now that if Indianapolis does the exact same thing on defense – where it is has improved dramatically since the first meeting – San Diego could struggle to get in the end zone. The Bolts’ offense managed just one touchdown back in November, as return man Darren Sproles gave San Diego that win. And that was against a dinged-up offensive line, a team adapting to missing Marvin Harrison and a game that saw rain falling in three of the four quarters.

The Colts are healthy once again, and their defense is much stronger than it was that night, when it limited LaDanian Tomlinson and company to a mere 177 offensive yards. Now it’s time for the rematch, in Indianapolis, where the Colts are 7-3 ATS.

And if there’s ever been a more competitive quarterback in this game since John Elway (all due respect to Brett Favre), it has to be Peyton Manning, who will be looking to right the ship after throwing six interceptions in the first meeting. Indianapolis finished in the top six offensively in the league in scoring (28.1 ppg, 3rd), total yards (358.7, 5th) and passing yardage (252.1 ypg, 6th), while Manning connected on 65.4 percent of his passes for 4,040 yards with 31 touchdown strikes.

You take those numbers and crunch ‘em with a defense that led the league in points allowed (16.4 ppg.) and third overall (279.7) and I smell a revenge factor taking shape in this one.

 

5 DIME Cowboys - Dallas was too comfortable in a pair of wins of the Jints during the regular season for me to believe it will struggle tonight at home. Dallas has won the last three meetings - both on the court and at the window. The Cowboys will have too much offense in this game, as I believe Terrel Owens is playing possum with that ankle and will be just fine in today's game. Quarterback Tony Romo completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 4,211 yards with a team-record 36 touchdowns this season, and Owens was on the receiving end of 15. And believe me, the Giants' D won't have the personnel to slow Dallas' offfense. And with the favorite riding a 6-1 ATS mark in this series, I don't see how we ignore the home team here.

[Trots]

Nice work Dre!

[Gdawg]

Did petty well yesterday, just need IND to win and two parlays and a teaser come through for me.

 

Did lose on NE yesterday, but no complaints. It was a good game, hats off to JAX for hanging in there.

 

Today I'm on IND -9.5, and probably DAL but not sure, I can't get a feel for that game. Owen makes this one a real question mark to me, how healthy is he? How effective will he be? May stay away.

 

ANOTHER teaser from Budin? You guys going to tail it?

Edited January 13, 2008 by Gdawg

[fairwarning]

Just saw Lang is on Colts and Cowboys... he tailed me on GB and the NE Over last night, why not the Colts too...

 

Brandon Lang

SUNDAY

 

30 DIME - Colts

 

5 DIME - Cowboys

5 DIME - Lakers

 

Free Picks - Cowboys-Giants Over the Total and West Virginia

 

NOTE: Excited to watch Indy hammer the Chargers today.

Excited about closing the book on winning week #3 in the last 4.

Excited about being just 2 games away from my 16th straight super bowl winner after today.

Lastly, I am excited about the opportunity to keep this winning streak going making 2008 my biggest year

ever.

It is only going to get better. Simple as that and if you stay here, play here, I will make you money long term.

There will be some tough times along the way as there is with anything in life but you can rest assured, if

given the right amount of time, you will be successful with me.

My money management and discipline are second to none and as this year progresses, you will see just how good it is as 2008 will be one of my greatest years ever.

Bottom line, I can't make you go all in long term with me. That is something you have to decide to do on your own.

However, my winning track record speaks for itself backed by an honesty and integrity unmatched by anyone in this industry.

I have never been more excited about a year as I am here in 2008. I mean never.

Considering all I have done in my life, that is a scary statement of confidence there. A scary statement but you know what, that's another thing that separates me from everybody else.

I don't live my life in fear. I live my life seizing every moment of everyday and every opportunity that presents itself and I attack it.....FEARLESS

Now let's go attack this winning Sunday fearless together.

 

30 DIME - Colts

 

Is there a reason we haven’t heard much about the team that has dominated the regular season the past few campaigns, prior to this year, and happened to win the Super Bowl in 2007? I know the Patriots are undefeated, I know that “no one wants to play the Jaguars right now,” and I know all about Romo and Jessica. I also know Eli Manning is out to prove he is a late-season winner. But is there anyone else out there that thinks the Colts are receiving absolutely no respect by being ignored right now?

I watched the Sunday night game between these two, and I can tell you right now that if Indianapolis does the exact same thing on defense – where it is has improved dramatically since the first meeting – San Diego could struggle to get in the end zone. The Bolts’ offense managed just one touchdown back in November, as return man Darren Sproles gave San Diego that win. And that was against a dinged-up offensive line, a team adapting to missing Marvin Harrison and a game that saw rain falling in three of the four quarters.

The Colts are healthy once again, and their defense is much stronger than it was that night, when it limited LaDanian Tomlinson and company to a mere 177 offensive yards. Now it’s time for the rematch, in Indianapolis, where the Colts are 7-3 ATS.

And if there’s ever been a more competitive quarterback in this game since John Elway (all due respect to Brett Favre), it has to be Peyton Manning, who will be looking to right the ship after throwing six interceptions in the first meeting. Indianapolis finished in the top six offensively in the league in scoring (28.1 ppg, 3rd), total yards (358.7, 5th) and passing yardage (252.1 ypg, 6th), while Manning connected on 65.4 percent of his passes for 4,040 yards with 31 touchdown strikes.

You take those numbers and crunch ‘em with a defense that led the league in points allowed (16.4 ppg.) and third overall (279.7) and I smell a revenge factor taking shape in this one.

 

5 DIME Cowboys - Dallas was too comfortable in a pair of wins of the Jints during the regular season for me to believe it will struggle tonight at home. Dallas has won the last three meetings - both on the court and at the window. The Cowboys will have too much offense in this game, as I believe Terrel Owens is playing possum with that ankle and will be just fine in today's game. Quarterback Tony Romo completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 4,211 yards with a team-record 36 touchdowns this season, and Owens was on the receiving end of 15. And believe me, the Giants' D won't have the personnel to slow Dallas' offfense. And with the favorite riding a 6-1 ATS mark in this series, I don't see how we ignore the home team here.

 

 

Thanks Dre !

[Gopher]

Why stay away when there's free money to be had?

 

I am glad I didn't find a good price on the middle attempt, so I left my play as it was.

 

Never had such an easy winner in the playoffs in quite some time. Everyone, regardless if you had O 39.5 or 44.5, should have winning tickets before the half.

 

To be honest, I just made a TON of $$. I'm going to be up huge even if all my other plays lose, I put that much on it. And I'm very glad to help everyone else out who followed. Good luck the rest of the day and week!

Because once the over moved up to 44, I was thinking of taking the under... Not so sure the game wouldn't have stayed under 44 had the Packers not turned it over twice deep in their own territory in the first 70 seconds of the game. Seattle was never able to put together a true scoring drive (other than one FG). No way to tell what would have happened, but my point was that those two turnovers may have cost me the under bet had I taken it. I was actually afraid that the early fumbles may have cost me my GB -7.5 bet, but the Packers obviously recovered quickly to cover.