Tim Hightower

[Brentastic]

I can't help but think we're like rats to the cheese here. Shanahan's such a dork, running full-on wham blocks and trap plays and springing RBs in fake games against exhibition defenses that didn't really game plan... I'm resisting the Hightower hype with every bone in my body.

-1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JUMbotron]

I respectfully disagree. Shanny has been eyeing Hightower for some time and it appears that Hightower found a coach who believes in him and a system that he can excel in. It's pre-season I know and while I agree some positions aren't worth following (WR for one), there have been RBs who have hinted at success during the pre-season. Most recently was Arian Foster last year.

 

There are several reasons I'm so high on Hightower and one is because I've owned him the last 2 years and I've seen what he is capable of on a team that didn't give him their full endorsement. He had some quality starts for ARI, I just think for whatever reason, Whisenhunt didn't see the potential that Shanny has seen. This happens in the NFL - see P. Holmes, C. Benson for recentish examples (I'm probably missing some). Another reason to be optimistic is that Timmy H is still a young guy - just turned 25 in May. Hightower has averaged 4.5 ypc in his last 2 seasons and is now entering his prime in a system that has proven successful for RBs - Arian Foster runs in the same system and came from more obscure history.

 

You can't win fantasy leagues by following ADP exclusively. Like usual, I will be loading up on WRs in the first 2-3 rounds and then looking for value in Hightower and DeAngelo later in the draft. My only challenge now is trying to predict what round I can guarantee both of these guys will end up on my roster.

 

"Another reason to be optimistic is that Tatum Bell is still a young guy - just turned 25 in May. Bell has averaged 4.5 ypc in his last 2 seasons and is now entering his prime in a system that has proven successful for RBs."

[Azazello1313]

this year's ron dayne!

[OCSkins]

He's some info on Shanahan and how he distributed carries to his RBs 2003-2008....

 

2003--Clinton Portis-290 carries Quentin Griffin-94 carries Mike Anderson-70 carries Jake Plummer-37 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 59% (290/491 carries)

2004--Reuben Droughns-275 carries Quentin Griffin-85 carries Tatum Bell-75 carries Jake Plummer-62 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 55% (275/497 carries)

2005--Mike Anderson-239 carries Tatum Bell-173 carries Ron Dayne-53 carries---Top Dog Percentage: 51% (239/465 carries)

2006--Tatum Bell-233 carries Mike Bell-157 carries Jake Plummer-36 carries Damien Nash-16 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 52% (233/442 carries)

2007--Travis Henry-167 carries Selvin Young-140 carries Andre Hall-44 carries Jay Cutler-44 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 42% (167/395 carries)

2008--Michael Pittman-76 carries Peyton Hillis-68 carries Selvin Young-61 carries Jay Cutler-57 carries Tatum Bell-44 carries Andre Hall-35 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 22% (76/341 carries)

 

This data is completely MISLEADING because:

 

1. You chose a small sample size (5 yrs) instead of the full sample size (Shanny's entire Denver tenure)

2. You have included QB rushes in your data, the majority of which were probably initially planned as passing plays but resulted in the QB having to run instead, thus making each one become a rushing statistic.

 

This lil' chart tells you a few facts: Shanahan has NEVER EVER given anyone over 66% of the carries in a season. Even when he is given beauts like Clinton Portis at age 22 in 2003 where he rushed for 1500+ yards and over 5.5 yards per carry he only gave him 59% of the rushes.

 

1998--Terrell Davis-392 carries-Derek Loville 53 carries-John Elway 37 carries-Bubby Brister 19 carries---Top Dog Percentage: 78.2% (392/501)

If you remove the 56 QB carries, (392/445), Top Dog Percentage: 88.1%

 

2003--removing Plummer's 37 carries moves Top Dog's Percentage from 59% up to 64%

2004--removing Plummer's 62 carries moves Top Dog's Percentage from 55% up to 63.2%

 

etc, etc, etc.

 

You get the point......ENTIRELY MISLEADING POST, shame on you bostonsoxandy!

Edited August 27, 2011 by OCSkins

[bushwacked]

You can't win fantasy leagues by following ADP exclusively. Like usual, I will be loading up on WRs in the first 2-3 rounds and then looking for value in Hightower and DeAngelo later in the draft. My only challenge now is trying to predict what round I can guarantee both of these guys will end up on my roster.

 

 

You've changed your tune a bit from last year then?

 

Other people don't affect my draft

 

 

 

Huh. So, if there are guys who you think can be top scorers at their position, you're still going to reach for them, say anywhere from 2 to 6 rounds early then...right? Because after all, other people don't effect how you draft.

 

 

That's exactly what I am saying. This strategy has served me well in my 17 years of FF. If I think a guy will produce 1st round talent but others think 4th round, why would I pattern my draft after their thoughts? That's just stupid.

 

So if I'm dumb enough to pick Dwayne Bowe in the first round this year and he becomes a top 10 WR, I'm actually a smart drafter?

 

I had Bowe on every single one of my teams last year, based on my perceived value vs. eveyone else's. Bowe was a top 5 WR in almost every format, I suspected that might happen but I waited to draft him until Round 5 or later, but didn't target him as the overall #5 WR, because there was better value.

 

Other people's perception of value matters. Whether you reach a bit early or become more aggressive later during later rounds.

[Avernus]

This data is completely MISLEADING because:

 

1. You chose a small sample size (5 yrs) instead of the full sample size (Shanny's entire Denver tenure)

2. You have included QB rushes in your data, the majority of which were probably initially planned as passing plays but resulted in the QB having to run instead, thus making each one become a rushing statistic.

 

This lil' chart tells you a few facts: Shanahan has NEVER EVER given anyone over 66% of the carries in a season. Even when he is given beauts like Clinton Portis at age 22 in 2003 where he rushed for 1500+ yards and over 5.5 yards per carry he only gave him 59% of the rushes.

 

1998--Terrell Davis-392 carries-Derek Loville 53 carries-John Elway 37 carries-Bubby Brister 19 carries---Top Dog Percentage: 78.2% (392/501)

If you remove the 56 QB carries, (392/445), Top Dog Percentage: 88.1%

 

2003--removing Plummer's 37 carries moves Top Dog's Percentage from 59% up to 64%

2004--removing Plummer's 62 carries moves Top Dog's Percentage from 55% up to 63.2%

 

etc, etc, etc.

 

You get the point......ENTIRELY MISLEADING POST, shame on you bostonsoxandy!

 

not to mention his RB's usually get hurt unless they are ineffective....and Portis numbers from 2003 I don't recall but even in 02 he didn't really start until week 4 or 5....I'm not sure if Portis got hurt in 03 because I took the year off from fantasy in 03...

[Brentastic]

You've changed your tune a bit from last year then?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I had Bowe on every single one of my teams last year, based on my perceived value vs. eveyone else's. Bowe was a top 5 WR in almost every format, I suspected that might happen but I waited to draft him until Round 5 or later, but didn't target him as the overall #5 WR, because there was better value.

 

Other people's perception of value matters. Whether you reach a bit early or become more aggressive later during later rounds.

 

Way to take that YEAR OLD conversation completely out of context. We were talking specifically about guys who I thought would be "TOP SCORERS" at their position, i.e... top 5 guys.

 

I'm willing to reach for a guy 1, 2 or even 3 rounds early no doubt, especially if I have them ranked in my top 5 at their position - and that's what I was talking about in that thread from LAST YEAR. If you read the whole thread, the discussion was about Miles Austin and his ADP. I was arguing that I'd take him in round 1 since I had him ranked as the #4 WR. His ADP was 10 and you were arguing that I should wait to draft him in round 2 - so I was talking about reaching for him just 1 round early. That was my point in that thread from LAST YEAR - that I couldn't care less about where everyone else had him ranked because I was going to draft him in round 1 regardless. Of course I still look to get value when I can and it's silly to suggest otherwise or pretend I don't care about value.

 

I'm honored that you put so much stock into every word I type on here - I wish my wife listened so intently. You're kind of like my superfan but you act like a school boy who doesn't know how to handle his crush, so you react by teasing me and acting like you don't like me.

[bushwacked]

I asked a specific question to which you gave an absolute answer. There was nothing "taken out of context." I fail to see how reaching for someone who will almost certainly be available several rounds later and blatnatly ignoring value in a draft is a good strategy, let alone something to puff your chest out about. The statement stuck in my head because it was probably the most Kookoo for Cocoa Puff rationale I've ever heard from an experienced fantasy football player.

Edited August 27, 2011 by bushwacked

[Brentastic]

I asked a specific question to which you gave an absolute answer. There was nothing "taken out of context." I fail to see how reaching for someone who will almost certainly be available several rounds later and blatnatly ignoring value in a draft is a good strategy, let alone something to puff your chest out about. The statement stuck in my head because it was probably the most Kookoo for Cocoa Puff rationale I've ever heard from an experienced fantasy football player.

Right, the specific question was regarding a 'TOP 5' player. If I think a guy is a top 5 at his position, I will draft him several rounds early EVERY SINGLE TIME without hesitation. Exceptional people don't follow the same laws or rules that everyone else does - that's why we're exceptional.

 

That still doesn't equate to me not trying to find value in late rounds. For being a 'scientist' you sure make large un-verifiable leaps from A to Z.

[bushwacked]

So drafting Bowe in the first round was the smart move last year, but it's imperative to find the right value for Tim Hightower this year. Got it. That's so exceptional

Edited August 27, 2011 by bushwacked

[damageinc]

i like hightower and from reading my post u can see i am high on him but its where u can draft him. i see he is going in mocks from late 6 to round 8. i think 6 is way too soon. 7-8 i think fits him. you got the fact that torain is finally healthy. shanahan loves torain. u got the hightower fumble issues and the rookie has been very good. got to be smart. i still want Hightower as my #3 who xan step in incase my #2 gets injured. i see some folks saying they will take him round 5 . thats not smart. his value is round 7 in my opinion. high up side but some issues.

[bpwallace49]

Right, the specific question was regarding a 'TOP 5' player. If I think a guy is a top 5 at his position, I will draft him several rounds early EVERY SINGLE TIME without hesitation. Exceptional people don't follow the same laws or rules that everyone else does - that's why we're exceptional. That still doesn't equate to me not trying to find value in late rounds. For being a 'scientist' you sure make large un-verifiable leaps from A to Z.

 

 

I :heart: Brent.

 

Are nominations for post of the year open yet?

[SLAYER]

another pissing match. this place is really going downhill, forum wise.

[bushwacked]

another pissing match. this place is really going downhill, forum wise.

 

Yup, sorry bout that. Me trying to wrap my head around apparent contradictory opinions for drafting value was out of genuine curiosity.

 

Back to this year's Arian Foster.

Edited August 27, 2011 by bushwacked

[Zooty]

Yup, sorry bout that. Me trying to wrap my head around apparent contradictory opinions for drafting value was out of genuine curiosity.

 

Back to this year's Arian Foster.

 

 

fixed

 

keep waste your picks and ignore the Shanahanagins

[Brentastic]

So drafting Bowe in the first round was the smart move last year, but it's imperative to find the right value for Tim Hightower this year. Got it. That's so exceptional

Ok dickhead. Go back and read the post from LAST YEAR and tell me if we were talking about ALL fantasy players or guys that we believe to be top 5. I expect an apology for your dickheadedness when you report back.

 

TIA

 

Nevermind, I'll do it for you:

 

Other people don't affect my draft unless they take the guy I want before I do.

 

If I have a guy (Austin) as my #4 WR but his ADP is #10 - I'm still taking him as the 4th WR. Even if I'm drafting say from the 10 spot in round 1 (if I'm planning on going WR), I'm grabbing him in round 1, no way I'm waiting until round 2 because I might be able to get him there. I draft based on my own perceptions and I don't take chances with ADP especially if I like a guy. If it's a guy on the fence about sure, but that's not really what we're talking about.

 

Huh. So, if there are guys who you think can be top scorers at their position, you're still going to reach for them, say anywhere from 2 to 6 rounds early then...right? Because after all, other people don't effect how you draft.

 

That's exactly what I am saying. This strategy has served me well in my 17 years of FF. If I think a guy will produce 1st round talent but others think 4th round, why would I pattern my draft after their thoughts? That's just stupid.

 

Then Delicious_bass stepped in and said:

I hear what you are saying, but you would agree that part of assembling a good fantasy team is getting good value, wouldnt you? It feels good to get the player(s) you want, but if you're consistently reaching for those players you could be hamstringing yourself in the long run...

 

My reply on which I further explained my position:

 

Getting valued players are essential, like when I drafted Colston in the last round his rookie year. But if you only concentrate on 'value' you lose, just like if you always 'reach' you lose. There's a balance for sure. I draft based on MY board and value is already factored in by draft day. Last year was the perfect example, I had Vincent Jackson in my top 15, the huddle had him at 40 (I even started a thread about it or contributed to an already started thread). I drafted Vjax in the 3rd round in my big money draft regardless of whether or not I could have had him in round 5 or greater.

 

In 2008 I drafted Roddy White in the 2nd round after selecting Larry Fitzgerald in round 1 - EVERYBODY in my league laughed at me. Roddy White ended up being the 4th best WR that year. My point stands, I draft on my perceived value, nobody elses.

 

Link to thread: http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?showtopic=327683

 

Keep trolling, prick.

Signed,

The most exceptional huddler

[Puddy]

No the Helu didn't!

[SLAYER]

My ignore list grows larger by the day.

[Brentastic]

My ignore list grows larger by the day.

Sorry I took the bait in this thread. You're one of the good guys

[bushwacked]

[MTSuper7]

People are getting ahead of themselves dreaming that Hightower could be this year's Foster. I think Hightower makes a darn good RB4 in the late 7th-8th round. He's not the kind of guy to reach for IMO simply because this offense is in flux, the preseason is not the regular season, and Shanahan can't be predicted. In other words, there is a fair amount of risk picking him. I don't like to reach for a high risk pick. I'd rather reach for someone like Mike Tolbert who can be had at a similar spot to Hightower (within a round of him, perhaps). At least with Tolbert, you have a guy who proved his value last year, signed a nice extension (I think it was an extension, but he might have been an RFA or something), and has a clearer role on the offense (RBBC, but on a dangerous offense, and seemingly has the goalline and 3rd down stuff sewn up - plus Mathews just doesn't strike me as a threat to somehow outplay Tolbert into a feature back role). It seems likely that Hightower will be sharing the load with Helu and/or Torain in some kind of RBBC, but Washington's offense is less proven, has a much worse QB/WR situation, and Hightower's role is not proven.

 

I understand the hype about Hightower (they traded for him knowing they had Torain and Helu on the roster, right?), but if his ADP keeps creeping up beyond the early 7th into the late 6th, mid 6th, etc., it means a better value is probably slipping at the same time. In the end, you go with your gut after weighing all the facts of the matter, but the facts don't exactly support a reach for Hightower, do they?

Edited August 28, 2011 by MTSuper7

[detlef]

Brentastic, if I may...

 

For starters, the next time you whine about the apparent bullseye on your back, would you mind if I quote the "that's what we exceptional people do" act a few posts up?

 

At any rate, this is what I think you're missing: Not about whether or not Hightower is going to be great, but about recognizing the limits to our ability to prognosticate. Anyone's ability to prognosticate. Sure, go ahead and give us the 2008 Roddy White deal and wherever you took VJax, but you're sounding like that guy who remembers all his gambling wins and none of his gambling losses. Because, when you hear dude talk, you wonder why he's still rolling in a 94 Civic and living at mom and dad's house.

 

In short, each of us has guys we're targeting each year. But, ultimately, we really don't know. Honestly, there are two types of people; those who realize that they don't actually know all of this and those who think they know but really don't. But the one thing we all have in common is that predicting the success of these guys is hardly an exact science. Which is where the market comes in.

 

Congrats on R White in 2008, but you know who really profited from that knowledge? Those of us who actually waited a few more rounds, grabbed guys that both us and everyone else realized would be good and then got him as well. You, on the other hand, wasted your insight by drafting him in the 2nd. What's the success in that? That set you back maybe 3 positions because you were pushed back a round for those picks. See, I wasn't waiting on him because I thought he wasn't good. Like you, I had him circled on my draft list. However, I was more confident that he'd be there several rounds later than the 2nd than I was that he'd be a top 5 WR. Because the first was proving to be well documented through ADP and the second, I realized was just as strong a hunch as I'd had so many other times, but missed on.

 

Because, I do remember the times when I drafted A Gates at the end of the draft in his breakout year. And when I got AP at pick 50 of his rookie year. However, I also remember the times when I took Aaron Hayden and William Green early. When I let some other a-hole waste a pick on Randy Moss when he came to NE from Oakland.

 

So, the lesson I gleaned from that is not to take a guy way sooner than I have to because I'm not good enough at this game to ignore the market and still win. I want the guys I want, but I need the guys that everyone else wants as well. And I can't get those guys if I reach too far for my pet picks.

 

That's the thing. For a guy who loves to talk about how "exceptional" he is. That the rest of us are just sheep following the herd, you lack the discipline to check your ego and take advantage of our alleged sheep-like behavior. And it's a shame to see such genius not reach its full potential.

Edited August 28, 2011 by detlef

[Brentastic]

Detlef - I was contributing to the topic of this thread when 'likes to fight' guy came in and tried to call me out AND he used a thread from LAST YEAR to do it. That's a troll. And you're trying to call ME out?? Doush move.

 

Back to the O.T. discussion I tried to end (and didn't even start) - nice work Det

 

If I had guys ranked higher than say White (back in 2008) or Hightower presumably in round 4 or 5 this year, I would be taking those guys in their respective rounds and then grab my targeted guys in a later round. Trust me, I fully recognize the parameters of forecasting, I always use probability on my side when drafting but I'm not going to draft other guys who are 'supposed to get drafted in said round if those players are not on my targeted players list . Why do I 'need' the guys everyone else wants as you quip? That just doesn't make sense to me unless I also want those players. I mean seriously, think about that silly statement - you're saying you need to draft guys that other people want

 

I have a relatively slim list of players I want on my team in any given year and I go after those players - that's the part that isn't obvious from my posts I guess. I'm not happy taking a Shon Greene say in round 4-5 but I'm ecstatic about Hightower, so I'm going to take Timmy H. every time in that situation, regardless of whether or not he can be had in round 7. I mean, why would anyone just take a player they're not even targeting just because the player they really want can be had later?? I still can't wrap my head around that bass ackwards philosophy. No one is pretending to have all the answers but I have had a lot of success in fantasy and it's because I grab the players I have targeted - sometimes that's a few rounds early and sometimes it's not. And of course some years I have better success than others but I have really fine-tuned my fantasy prognostication formula so in the big picture of my teams in any given year, I usually hit - at least in the last decade. But please, keep trying to convince me I should take players I don't want

[theeohiostate]

Cheatsheets updated and no movement for Hightower

 

stays at #41 ? but Felix Jones gets a bump up

Edited August 28, 2011 by theeohiostate

[detlef]

But please, keep trying to convince me I should take players I don't want

Yep, that's exactly what I'm trying to say.

Edited August 28, 2011 by detlef