muck Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 I humbly suggest that the events of the past three months or so have caused me pause with this assessment and wish to revise that to say that (i) previously, I thought it was probable that the AIG investment would be a hugh boon to the US Taxpayer ... and ... (ii) now, I think that it is probable that the investment will recover less than the amount originally invested by the US Taxpayer. NOTE: Probable > 50.1%, but not anywhere near certainty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtomicCEO Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Is there going to be a new treasury secretary in a week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Irish Doggy Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 this economy and world are fubar'd. things will get much worse before they get better. spend wisely. good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted September 30, 2010 Author Share Posted September 30, 2010 It appears that my original prognostication may be more accurate than my revised one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted September 30, 2010 Share Posted September 30, 2010 Oh no, bait and switch!11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted September 30, 2010 Author Share Posted September 30, 2010 Debt / equity swaps happen all the time; the stock jumped about 3% on the news (and since the taxpayers will become shareholders, a higher stock price is a good thing). Said another way, and to shorten the linked-to text, the story indicates that if the USG is able to sell its AIG shares at an average price of $29, the taxpayers will break even. AIGs stock closed today at $39.10 (up +4.4% on the day, while the S&P500 was down about -0.3%). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted September 30, 2010 Share Posted September 30, 2010 Debt / equity swaps happen all the time; the stock jumped about 3% on the news (and since the taxpayers will become shareholders, a higher stock price is a good thing). Said another way, and to shorten the linked-to text, the story indicates that if the USG is able to sell its AIG shares at an average price of $29, the taxpayers will break even. AIGs stock closed today at $39.10 (up +4.4% on the day, while the S&P500 was down about -0.3%). If that is the case they need to sell right now. The government has no business owning a business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted September 30, 2010 Author Share Posted September 30, 2010 If that is the case they need to sell right now. The government has no business owning a business. The taxpayer will be better off with an orderly sale. According to the article, we (taxpayer) will own 1.66 billion shares of AIG. FWIW, the average daily volume of AIG over the past three months is 4 million shares / day. If we doubled that (i.e., the US Treasury sold an average of 4 million shares / day), it'd take 415 trading days (or about 20 months) ... excactly what the article says we should expect regarding the liquidation. Selling too quickly will roil markets. Please stick to building buildings. PS - If we make too much money doing this, I will be concerned that someone will get the bright idea to privatize other businesses only to resell them later at a profit to the US Treasury. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted September 30, 2010 Share Posted September 30, 2010 If that is the case they need to sell right now. The government has no business owning a business. Nothing says "free markets" like limiting who can participate in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted October 1, 2010 Share Posted October 1, 2010 Nothing says "free markets" like limiting who can participate in it. wurd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted October 1, 2010 Share Posted October 1, 2010 Please stick to building buildings. + ∞ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted October 1, 2010 Share Posted October 1, 2010 The taxpayer will be better off with an orderly sale. According to the article, we (taxpayer) will own 1.66 billion shares of AIG. FWIW, the average daily volume of AIG over the past three months is 4 million shares / day. If we doubled that (i.e., the US Treasury sold an average of 4 million shares / day), it'd take 415 trading days (or about 20 months) ... excactly what the article says we should expect regarding the liquidation. Selling too quickly will roil markets. Please stick to building buildings. PS - If we make too much money doing this, I will be concerned that someone will get the bright idea to privatize other businesses only to resell them later at a profit to the US Treasury. I'm not that big of a dumb ass. I didn't mean to dump it all at once. What I mean is we need to get rid of it as soon as possible without causing it to tank. Having said that I have a very small account I manage myself to get my "gambling fix", most of my funds are taken care of by a money manager. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted October 1, 2010 Share Posted October 1, 2010 no way they sell this on the open market. i cant bid or offer 1000 shares without getting carped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 1, 2010 Author Share Posted October 1, 2010 First, explain what you mean by "carped"; I'm pretty sure not everyone knows the term. Second, they will absolutely sell at least some in the open market. As the float increases, the liquidity will increase, making it incrementally easier to sell more shares. Related to this, there is NO way they start selling 4 million shares / day out of the box ... maybe a few hundred thousand shares, increasing it on higher volume days and increasing it as the float increases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt770 Posted October 1, 2010 Share Posted October 1, 2010 this economy and world are fubar'd. things will get much worse before they get better. spend wisely. good luck. Thanks, happy Friday to ya. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 (edited) Things are looking much better for AIG and the US taxpayers (at least as it regards the AIG deal) Edited January 14, 2011 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Things are looking much better for AIG and the US taxpayers (at least as it regards the AIG deal) Pretty sure that won't be on Limbaugh or O'Reilly's talking point list any time soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redrumjuice Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Pretty sure that won't be on Limbaugh or O'Reilly's talking point list any time soon. Yeah, really. Hey, how are fannie and freddie doing? What about the loss they just took on GM? Any comment on the million foreclosures forecast? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Pretty sure that won't be on Limbaugh or O'Reilly's talking point list any time soon. Target audience member. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Pretty sure that won't be on Limbaugh or O'Reilly's talking point list any time soon. Limbaugh is busy gearing up for his "2012 is the year Jesus is coming back so we have to make sure Republicans are the only ones holding jobs in D.C." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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