rattsass Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 The favorites in the Superbowl are 19-18-2 overall. But over the last 9 years the favorite has covered the spread only 2 times, with 2 pushes, and I believe 3 underdogs winning outright with the Buccaneers, Ravens, and Patriots over the Rams. Just food for thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meanandgreene Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 (edited) The favorites in the Superbowl are 19-18-2 overall. But over the last 9 years the favorite has covered the spread only 2 times, with 2 pushes, and I believe 3 underdogs winning outright with the Buccaneers, Ravens, and Patriots over the Rams. Just food for thought. 1286794[/snapback] It's always a coin toss against the spread no matter what u think......the better team (or the team most people think is the better team and will bet on) has to win by more points to beat the point spread.....STATS SHOW THAT OVER TIME THE FAVORATE WILL BEAT THE POINT SPREAD HALF THE TIME ( this allows bookies to make money with their 10% commission since usually half the money is on one team and half the money is on the other so they win either way)...if this isn't happening the point spread will change to make this happen..........and just becasue a favoraite has lost a disproportionate amount of time in the last 9 years has nothing to do with this year...over the long haul the stats will even out........just because u flip a coin and get head 5 times in a row does not make it any more likely the next flip will yeild a head....the very best prognosticators are lucky if they can get 6 out of 10 games right when going agianst the point spread....I have never seen ANYBODY who picks right over 60 % of the time agaisnt the spread (with a minimum of 50 picks) and if they say they can they are lying Edited January 25, 2006 by meanandgreene Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menudo Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 The favorites in the Superbowl are 19-18-2 overall. But over the last 9 years the favorite has covered the spread only 2 times, with 2 pushes, and I believe 3 underdogs winning outright with the Buccaneers, Ravens, and Patriots over the Rams. Just food for thought. 1286794[/snapback] Good news Pittsburgh fans. Ratsass is going to lose money betting against the Steelers AGAIN !!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 25, 2006 Author Share Posted January 25, 2006 (edited) It's always a coin toss against the spread no matter what u think......the better team (or the team most people think is the better team and will bet on) has to win by more points to beat the point spread.....STATS SHOW THAT OVER TIME THE FAVORATE WILL BEAT THE POINT SPREAD HALF THE TIME ( this allows bookies to make money with their 10% commission since usually half the money is on one team and half the money is on the other so they win either way)...if this isn't happening the point spread will change to make this happen..........and just becasue a favoraite has lost a disproportionate amount of time in the last 9 years has nothing to do with this year...over the long haul the stats will even out........just because u flip a coin and get head 5 times in a row does not make it any more likely the next flip will yeild a head....the very best prognosticators are lucky if they can get 6 out of 10 games right when going agianst the point spread....I have never seen ANYBODY who picks right over 60 % of the time agaisnt the spread (with a minimum of 50 picks) and if they say they can they are lying 1286964[/snapback] Sorry for my meaningless post. Thanks for the valuable lesson. You obviously have a much better handle on this situation than I could ever hope to obtain. Your spelling skill alone shows you to be of superior intellect and I bow to your greatness. BTW: While writing for the Huddle this season I hit 62% against the number, and I'm 6-4 in the playffs so far. I'll do the math for you (60%) Jerkwad Edited January 25, 2006 by rattsass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 25, 2006 Author Share Posted January 25, 2006 Good news Pittsburgh fans. Ratsass is going to lose money betting against the Steelers AGAIN !!!!! 1287027[/snapback] Yeah, but this time I get 4 points too!! It's all coming right back to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menudo Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 Yeah, but this time I get 4 points too!! It's all coming right back to me. 1287085[/snapback] You can win your silly little bet, as long as the Steelers win the game..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 25, 2006 Author Share Posted January 25, 2006 You can win your silly little bet, as long as the Steelers win the game..... 1287088[/snapback] True. Hey, I'm not convinced on any level that the Seahawks can win this game. The Steelers have the mojo. Big Ben looks like Montana. But then again, so does Hasselbeck. I wouldn't bet on either team winning by more than 3 so I'll take the points. The Seahawks are getting 4 points plus based simply on the fact that the Steelers are a far more popular team, and more money will be bet on them. This is a pick'em game if I ever saw one. 4 points is a gift. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menudo Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 True. Hey, I'm not convinced on any level that the Seahawks can win this game. The Steelers have the mojo. Big Ben looks like Montana. But then again, so does Hasselbeck. I wouldn't bet on either team winning by more than 3 so I'll take the points. The Seahawks are getting 4 points plus based simply on the fact that the Steelers are a far more popular team, and more money will be bet on them. This is a pick'em game if I ever saw one. 4 points is a gift. 1287107[/snapback] I actually agree 100% with what you are saying about the line, and the game being a pick'em, but, I still see the Steeelrs by 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 The Seahawks are getting 4 points plus based simply on the fact that the Steelers are a far more popular team, and more money will be bet on them. This is a pick'em game if I ever saw one. 4 points is a gift. 1287107[/snapback] That's good info. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meanandgreene Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 Sorry for my meaningless post. Thanks for the valuable lesson. You obviously have a much better handle on this situation than I could ever hope to obtain. Your spelling skill alone shows you to be of superior intellect and I bow to your greatness. BTW: While writing for the Huddle this season I hit 62% against the number, and I'm 6-4 in the playffs so far. I'll do the math for you (60%) Jerkwad 1287049[/snapback] touchy touchy .....like I said, 60 % is the best u are gonna do (and you should be commended for doing that) however, let me put this in simpler terms for u. ...the 2-9 win loss record of the favorite is an aberation and has nuthing (excuse me nothing) to do with what will happen this year And ur right about me being smarter than u so another good pick by u Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 True. Hey, I'm not convinced on any level that the Seahawks can win this game. The Steelers have the mojo. Big Ben looks like Montana. But then again, so does Hasselbeck. I wouldn't bet on either team winning by more than 3 so I'll take the points. The Seahawks are getting 4 points plus based simply on the fact that the Steelers are a far more popular team, and more money will be bet on them. This is a pick'em game if I ever saw one. 4 points is a gift. 1287107[/snapback] Right on the Money. I am a Sea homer so of course I am all over the +4. As a neutral, objective gambler- the +4 is a total value play- this is completely a pick em, maybe Pitt-1 game. I was surprised at the opening line- but hey whatever let my Hawks have the best record in the NFL, take care of Wash & Car, not to mention there D is stepping up huge- I love their speed advantange on D- Pitt is NOT gonna be able to run the ball- period. Bus & Parker might combine for 50 yds. Pitt WR- solid, quick guys, but certainly not playmakers. Should be a good one! Let's all get real on Roth, great young QB- everyone is on his nutz- Hasselbeck is a MUCH better QB than Roth- PERIOD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt. Ryan Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 Im picking Pittsburgh for obvious reasons. I just hope someone calls me out Sunday night for being so wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menudo Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 Bus & Parker might combine for 50 yds. Pitt WR- solid, quick guys, but certainly not playmakers. Should be a good one! Let's all get real on Roth, great young QB- everyone is on his nutz- Hasselbeck is a MUCH better QB than Roth- PERIOD. 1287367[/snapback] Bus and Parker MIGHT combine for 50 yards. No playmakers at WR - What have I been watching that Hines Ward guy do for years then. Hines Ward will be the best WR on the field next Sunday, and it isn't even close. Hasselbeck is a MUCH better QB than Roth- PERIOD. - since you said PERIOD, I can't even argue. Playoff Passer Rating: Roethlisberger - 124.8 Hasselbeck - 109.6 Regular Season Rating: Roethlisberger - 98.6 Hasselbeck - 98.2 Oh, that's right, you said PERIOD. :doah: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menudo Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 Im picking Pittsburgh for obvious reasons. I just hope someone calls me out Sunday night for being so wrong. 1287385[/snapback] Yes, what you picked has a BIG impact on what will happen next Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 Bus and Parker MIGHT combine for 50 yards. No playmakers at WR - What have I been watching that Hines Ward guy do for years then. Hines Ward will be the best WR on the field next Sunday, and it isn't even close. Hasselbeck is a MUCH better QB than Roth- PERIOD. - since you said PERIOD, I can't even argue. Playoff Passer Rating: Roethlisberger - 124.8 Hasselbeck - 109.6 Regular Season Rating: Roethlisberger - 98.6 Hasselbeck - 98.2 Menudo- I am not hating on Roth- I think he is a good QB, and his playoff #'s are ridiculous, just tired of all the love for him really, and I think Hasselbeck is a better,more complete QB- with more weapons to work with- which you will see in XL. As for Bus/Parker- maybe give them 75- not much more- Sea has SHUT DOWN the run of late- don't see Bus/Parker doing anything of note to be honest with ya- I have alot of resoect for Ward- but he is not a gamebreaker. Sea just took S. Moss/ S.Smith compleley out of the game- 2 of the most explosive WR in fball. Ward?- please. Trufant will lock him up. The Sea has shown they can control offenses that are one dimensional very well- to me- Pitt looks pretty one dimensional of late- passing game is clicking- the running game?? and a quick FYI- DJax is a better WR than H. Ward at this stage of their careers. The more more I think about Pitt -4, and all the love they are getting- such a perfect set up for Seatttle- really is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steeler Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 The Steelers D just handled three of the best offenses in the league.... so I don't expect Seattle to march up and down the field against them, although it could happen. It will be interesting to see if Seattle brings a safety into the box in an attempt to stop the Steelers running game. Ben has been able take advantage of this situation early in the INDY and DEN games, so I'm wondering if Seattle will start out playing against the pass, or the run The Steelers can usually run the ball if their opponents don't bring a saftey into the box, so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 It will be interesting to see if Seattle brings a safety into the box in an attempt to stop the Steelers running game. Ben has been able take advantage of this situation early in the INDY and DEN games, so I'm wondering if Seattle will start out playing against the pass, or the run The Steelers can usually run the ball if their opponents don't bring a saftey into the box, so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. 1287536[/snapback] My guess is they play against the pass until/if the run starts beating them. Seattle is very tough against the run and Ben has been hot. Parker has been MIA and Bettis should not break long runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 The Steelers D just handled three of the best offenses in the league.... so I don't expect Seattle to march up and down the field against them, although it could happen. It will be interesting to see if Seattle brings a safety into the box in an attempt to stop the Steelers running game. Ben has been able take advantage of this situation early in the INDY and DEN games, so I'm wondering if Seattle will start out playing against the pass, or the run The Steelers can usually run the ball if their opponents don't bring a saftey into the box, so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. 1287536[/snapback] Good point- will be interesting to watch. I think Sea will play em honest to start- and try and make Pitt run the ball. Will be key for sure- how the coordinators for each side make correct calls/matchups. I think of late- the Pitt passing game is much more of a threat than the running game. Sea run D has been pretty stout. The Sea O? wow- I mean you can almost put em down for 28- I mean it is the most balanced O in the NFL- They shredded a solid Car D. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justin Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 (edited) The favorites in the Superbowl are 19-18-2 overall. But over the last 9 years the favorite has covered the spread only 2 times, with 2 pushes, and I believe 3 underdogs winning outright with the Buccaneers, Ravens, and Patriots over the Rams. Just food for thought. 1286794[/snapback] The Ravens were 3 point favorites and covered. Actually it was the Broncos who were an underdog and won against GB in SBXXXII (like the Bucs in 37 and Pats in 36). http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/superbowl/history/ Edited January 26, 2006 by justin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guggs Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 The point spread doesn't mean much in the Super Bowl. See Justin's post on the win loss records. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 26, 2006 Author Share Posted January 26, 2006 The point spread doesn't mean much in the Super Bowl. See Justin's post on the win loss records. 1290446[/snapback] Well, the point spread means absolutely nothing to someone who isn't betting the game. And as MeanandGreene has pointed out apparently trends and tendencies are meaningless in this pursuit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meanandgreene Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 (edited) Well, the point spread means absolutely nothing to someone who isn't betting the game. And as MeanandGreene has pointed out apparently trends and tendencies are meaningless in this pursuit. 1290460[/snapback] they are meaningless just like the casinos make lots of money putting the last 20 or so numbers that come up on a display at the reulette (prob spelled wrong) wheel so that morons who think they are smarter than everyone else can see a pattern and then make a prediction on future numbers (the numbers are 100% random! ) .......teams are different every year so what has happened in the past has little relevance on what happens today!!!!! .....u may not believe me but tis true ...ask pete axhelm (the king of past trends and the worst predictor against the spread I ever did see). God have mercy on his soul! P.S. Glad i didn't bet against the steelers this playoff year since the "tendency" was for a 6th seed to never.. ever...go to the super bowl (seems like a strong tendency any way u look at ...perhaps the strongest ever) ...u could have used this "tendency" not once but for 3 games but would have lost your bet every time Edited January 27, 2006 by meanandgreene Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 they are meaningless just like the casinos make lots of money putting the last 20 or so numbers that come up on a display at the reulette (prob spelled wrong) wheel so that morons who think they are smarter than everyone else can see a pattern and then make a prediction on future numbers (the numbers are 100% random! ) .......teams are different every year so what has happened in the past has little relevance on what happens today!!!!! .....u may not believe me but tis true ...ask pete axhelm (the king of past trends and the worst predictor against the spread I ever did see). God have mercy on his soul! 1291148[/snapback] While your "gambler's fallacy" has some merit, I call BS on the comparison to things like roulette. Oddsmakers don't make picking a game pure luck or pure 50/50. They set a line for an uniformed public, and adjust it accordingly in an attempt to get equal money on both sides. An educated football gambler has an edge relative to the general betting public. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 27, 2006 Author Share Posted January 27, 2006 While your "gambler's fallacy" has some merit, I call BS on the comparison to things like roulette. Oddsmakers don't make picking a game pure luck or pure 50/50. They set a line for an uniformed public, and adjust it accordingly in an attempt to get equal money on both sides. An educated football gambler has an edge relative to the general betting public. 1291225[/snapback] DIN DING DING Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meanandgreene Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 While your "gambler's fallacy" has some merit, I call BS on the comparison to things like roulette. Oddsmakers don't make picking a game pure luck or pure 50/50. They set a line for an uniformed public, and adjust it accordingly in an attempt to get equal money on both sides. An educated football gambler has an edge relative to the general betting public. 1291225[/snapback] ok.....I agree with u to a point.....in fact the steelers are probably favored by a few extra points simply because they are the more popular team and more people will bet on them ( I feel knowing this can give u an edge) .... however, I dont consider this a tendency which is the main subject I was arguing about earlier ...the beginning of this thread was talking about the fact that the favorite in the super bowl has lost against the spread 7 of the last 9 times.....I simply feel that that info in itself has nothing to do with this year and thus my analogy to the roulette wheel is valid........ having said that.....if u are an "educated football gambler" u can tilt the odds in your favor slightly (be right 60% of the time against the spread) by knowing this years teams (not previous years) thoroughly and realizing that public perception may have it wrong.... As an example, I bet $500 on carolina when they played the bears since I felt the public perception was wrong thinking the bears d was so great........I actually knew this thanks to fantasy football and owning the bear D and realizing they played weak offenses about 80% of the time...thus I felt their defense was highly over rated (good .. but over rated)..... this is just my opinion and i could be wrong.....but it doesnt happen often Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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