Superbowl Point Spread

[meanandgreene]

one last thing.....even though the spread (to some degree) is based on an uniformed public....over the course of history the favorite has won almost exactly 50% of the time against the spread so by and large the spread is right on........I feel for the most part the spread is basically very close to where it should be based on "how good the teams really are" (to put it simply) and that whether a favorite beats or loses to the spread for the most part comes down to totally unpredicable events such as turnovers, bad calls, injuries, the burger king running onto the field, etc. etc.

 

believe it or not

[Vet]

You can call me Aaron Burr - cuz I'm gonna be droppin' Hamiltons on this one!

 

I still like the Seahawks +10/Over 41 teaser.

 

Hawks are getting no respect. It's like people think Seattle is part of Canada or something. I know it's close, but c'mon!

[Gdawg]

You can call me Aaron Burr - cuz I'm gonna be droppin' Hamiltons on this one! 

 

I still like the Seahawks +10/Over 41 teaser.

 

Hawks are getting no respect.  It's like people think Seattle is part of Canada or something.  I know it's close, but c'mon!

 

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Nice Alexander Hamilton reference Quality work

[rattsass]

one last thing.....even though the spread (to some degree) is based on an uniformed public....over the course of history the favorite has won almost exactly 50% of the time against the spread so by and large the spread is right on........I feel for the most part the spread is basically very close to where it should be based on "how good the teams really are" (to put it simply) and that whether a favorite beats or loses to the spread for the most part comes down to totally unpredicable events such as turnovers,  bad calls, injuries, the burger king running onto the field, etc. etc.

 

believe it or not 

 

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Okay, fine. You are a spread kind of guy. You like to bet the favorite. That is your philosophy of life. It works for you.

 

But I'm a guy that likes to take the underdog. If the craps tables look cold I'm pouncing on the Don't Pass line. In a football game always looking for a way to take the points. Because I have found that most people bet like you do, with the favorite, and they seem to lose a lot.

 

If you had bet the favorite in the last 9 Superbowls you would be a few car payments lighter in the wallet than if you had followed my general philosophy of TAKING THE POINTS.

 

The NFL right now is a mixed up crazy ass league where the teams are so closely matched we don't really have a handle on what is going to happen.

 

In the 80's it was easy. Take the NFC favorite, drop the 14 points and pray that the term "prevent defense" doesn't crop up late in the game. And the NFC usually crushed the AFC 55-10. Those days are over.

 

You are entitled to your opinion, but it is a simple fact that some Steelers fans cannot grasp. This game is not going to be like the last 3 weeks.

 

The Seahawks match up with the Steelers well in every facet of the game. Yes, in the end the Seahawks could put the ball on the ground twice in the first quarter and let it get away from them.

 

If Pittsburgh was a 4 1/2 point underdog in this game my money would be on them. That's what I'm talking about.

 

And by the way, why don't you change your avy to someting less offensive, like say....... fresh roadkill or a steaming pile of diharrea. Nobody wants to see that. I know, that is why you have it. But for the love of God and all that is good in the world please ditch the flamer.

[steeler]

If you had bet the favorite in the last 9 Superbowls you would be a few car payments lighter in the wallet than if you had followed my general philosophy of TAKING THE POINTS.

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Isn't this year an abberation where the favorite has won a crazy amount of times... way above normal?

 

Maybe that will hold true in XL

[Jumpin Johnies]

Sorry for my meaningless post.  Thanks for the valuable lesson.  You obviously have a much better handle on this situation than I could ever hope to obtain.  Your spelling skill alone shows you to be of superior intellect and I bow to your  greatness.

 

BTW:  While writing for the Huddle this season I hit 62% against the number, and I'm 6-4 in the playffs so far.  I'll do the math for you (60%)

 

Jerkwad

 

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Easy on the newb Ratteree the guy started posting yesterday and seems ok. He didn't know you were an employee of this joint.

[rattsass]

Easy on the newb Ratteree the guy started posting yesterday and seems ok.  He didn't know you were an employee of this joint.

 

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Yeah, I know. We're past that now. I remember when I was 18 and knew everything there was to know. Those were fun times.

[meanandgreene]

ty jj ..im ok .... in case you didnt read carefully rattsass (APPROPRIATE NAME)... i suppose u didnt.. no offense or anything... but i did mention one bet that I made (my only significant bet since i was 19 ( i am now 38) was for the panthers against the bears a couple weeks ago who were btw UNDERDOGS by 3 points ( almost 500 big ones in my pocket ty)... so to say I am a favorite kind of guy is missing what i said...I will speak more slowly now so u can understand.... when in my numerous examples I spoke of betting on the " favorite" I was assuming u would realize u could do so with the underdog too......wth.......my God :doah: ........anyways...it's no big deal.......I was not trying to disrespect u rattsass......u are good at what u do.....I am just stating what has bugged me for years (since the pete axhelm days) was when he would say "Im taking the chargers today with the 7 1/2 points over the broncos today because they are 5-2 after home losses when they played the monday night b4 in the the first half of the season when they are playing the nfc west on odd numbered years!".....I'm sorry and I know a lot of people think the past can show them the future in sports but I just ain't buying it........maybe we can agree to disagree............I know I'm a noobie at the huddle message board but I have been a member of the huddle for the last 5 years and I'm not a newbee in life nor in football ..........i and I like my avi ty very much...i think I will stick with it... It gives me a chuckle evrytime I see it ..and no offense

again but if I were to guess who my avi looks the most like here at the huddle , I

would say it looks most like u rattsass ....no wonder u want me to take it down Go away little boy

Edited January 28, 2006 by meanandgreene

[bushwacked]

was not trying to disrespect u rattsass......u are good at what u do.....I am just stating what has bugged me for years (since the pete axhelm days) was  when he would say "Im taking the chargers today with the 7 1/2 points over the broncos today because they are 5-2 after home losses when they played the monday night b4 in the thes!".....I'm sorry and I know a lot of people think the past can show them the future in sports but I just ain't buying it......

 

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Okay, you are getting way too carried away with your little Jihad. Rat put up a trend from the last 9 years for superbowl games that is nowhere near the ridiculous crap you are spouting. There is also a weight of evidence approach for previous Superbowl champs ATS during the subsequent regular season. You can pretend it's like playing slot machines, but it isn't. If you could compare it to a knowledgeable Blackjack or Texas Hold Em player, you would get an idea.

 

Hit.

[Capt Skinman]

I predicted both of these teams to go all the way. I am a Steelers homer but have always liked the Seachickens.

 

That said, I hope this game is a great one and I believe its a coin flip. Its going to come down to who is fired up on the field at the onset. I feel this edge goes to the Steelers with the Bettis backdrop and more fans in the seats than any other potseason game this year. However, we've all known Cowher to get cautious when the team has a lead. I think it shows in the fire on the field once the play calling pulls up on the aggressiveness. If they let their guard down, this Seahawk team will take advantage fast.

 

I think the run game for both teams is going to be slow going and I like both QBs. They both show poise in the pocket this year. The difference here is the Ben is better on the run than Matt. These D's are gonna come after both QBs and I like Ben's chances of escaping better. Steelers need to keep the same intensity they've had for the last three games and they will win.

 

I will actually feel bad for the Seahwaks if they do lose because this is their first trip but I hope they are back more in the future.

[bushwacked]

I predicted both of these teams to go all the way. I am a Steelers homer but have always liked the Seachickens.

 

That said, I hope this game is a great one and I believe its a coin flip. Its going to come down to who is fired up on the field at the onset. I feel this edge goes to the Steelers with the Bettis backdrop and more fans in the seats than any other potseason game this year. However, we've all known Cowher to get cautious when the team has a lead. I think it shows in the fire on the field once the play calling pulls up on the aggressiveness.  If they let their guard down, this Seahawk team will take advantage fast.

 

I think the run game for both teams is going to be slow going and I like both QBs. They both show poise in the pocket this year. The difference here is the Ben is better on the run than Matt. These D's are gonna come after both QBs and I like Ben's chances of escaping better.  Steelers need to keep the same intensity they've had for the last three games and they will win.

 

I will actually feel bad for the Seahwaks if they do lose because this is their first trip but I hope they are back more in the future.

 

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I disagree about Ben's esacapibility vs. Hasselback's but that is a solid overview.

[Mark5]

I read this thread and took the Seahawks and getting 4 points. 'course we were at Friday night bowling league and were getting hammered so do drunk bets count?? I had Hassleback on my local team this year and was a little biased in my pick. Pretty even game IMO, Holmgren has been there a few times so his insight will help enough to cover the 4 points. PLUS, it was only for 10 bucks anyway, no biggie. I just watch it for the SUPER BOWL SQUARES ANYWAY

[meanandgreene]

Okay, you are getting way too carried away with your little Jihad.  Rat put up a trend from the last 9 years for superbowl games that is nowhere near the ridiculous crap you are spouting.  There is also a weight of evidence approach for previous Superbowl champs ATS during the subsequent regular season.  You can pretend it's like playing slot machines, but it isn't.  If you could compare it to a knowledgeable Blackjack or Texas Hold Em player, you would get an idea. 

 

Hit.

 

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Sorry for stating an opinion that some (maybe most) may disagree with but I happen to think i may be right.....If you dont agree with me then state the reason why and we can have a meaningful debate or just agree to disagree........but when people on here start calling names like little 5 year olds and getting personal (which unfortuanately happens quite often here on the huddle), this ticks me off .....u people need to grown up and try not acting like a rattsass.....I believe the term rattsass used was jerkwad when describing me after I posted a differing opinion from what he was alluding to in his original post....all I can say is rattsass deserves all the respect he may have since he is quite the class act

[fitzkek]

It's always a coin toss  against the spread no matter what u think......the better team (or the team most people think is the better team and will bet on) has to win by more points to beat the point spread.....STATS SHOW THAT OVER TIME THE FAVORATE WILL BEAT THE POINT SPREAD HALF THE TIME ( this allows bookies to make money with their 10% commission since usually half the money is on one team and half the money is on the other so they win either way)...if this isn't happening the point spread will change to make this happen..........and just becasue a favoraite has lost a disproportionate amount of time in the last 9 years has nothing to do with this year...over the long haul the stats will even out........just because u flip a coin and get head 5 times in a row does not make it any more likely the next flip will yeild a head....the very best prognosticators are lucky if they can get 6 out of 10 games right when going agianst the point spread....I have never seen ANYBODY who picks right over 60 % of the time agaisnt the spread (with a minimum of 50 picks) and if they say they can they are lying 

 

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Wow! Thanks for the gambling tips. I always wondered how it worked.

[Menudo]

I have absolutely NO problem with the Steelers failing to cover the spread, BUT winning the game. Since I've been old enough, I was five when they last won, where they are now, I've been through before. What hasn't happened since I've been old enough, is the Steeelers hoisting the Lombardi trophy. That is what I want to see, and I DO NOT CARE one bit how it happens, just get that trophy !!!!

[rattsass]

Sorry for stating an opinion that some (maybe most) may disagree with but I happen to think i may be right.....If you dont agree with me then state the reason why and we can have a meaningful debate or just agree to disagree........but when people on here start calling names like little 5 year olds and getting personal (which unfortuanately happens quite often here on the huddle), this ticks me off .....u people need to grown up and try not acting like a rattsass.....I believe the term rattsass used was jerkwad when describing me after I posted a differing opinion from what he was alluding to in his original post....all I can say is rattsass deserves all the respect he may have since he is quite the class act 

 

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Geez, this just won't end.

 

When I start a topic, which is rare, I write what I believe in my heart and head to be helpful information to the people that read this free forum.

 

Then, here comes the new guy to the board. Who not only feels compelled to disregard my post, but to then proceed to give me an unsolicited block long paragraph on Gambling 101.

 

You assume after reading my post that I know nothing about gambling strategy though my track record would prove otherwise. You assume I am an idiot, so that makes me think "jerkwad." That may prove wrong over time, but just a first impression.

 

Yes, you are correct. Every spin of roulette wheel is independent of the others.

 

Yes, people that try to predict patterns from the number boards at the roulette table are deluding themselves strictly from a statistical pont of view.

 

Yes, people that base their gambling decisions strictly on trends usually shoot themselves in the foot.

 

But every fool that has placed any number of bets knows that streaks happen. Have you ever been in the casino and you keep hearing shouts form the craps table for 15 or 30 minutes? That is the sign of a trend. Do you walk up to that table and start betting against the trend? Or do you join in the fun and line your pockets with the casino's money?

 

If you bet with the trend and you are wrong, you lose once. But if you bet against the trend you can get sucked into a losing streak that will kill you. Much like I am doing right now with the Steelers.

 

One could argue at this point that the Steelers have covered the spread 3 weeks in a row on the road in the playoffs. Therefore one could reasonably assume they will do it a 4th time.

 

I have no argument with someone that wants to think like that. It is perfectly logical to expect the Steelers to continue to steamroll like thay have been.

 

But that "trend" bucks against the one where the underdog covers the spread in the Superbowl. And discounts the Seahawks own impressive streak.

 

Good luck to all who place wagers this week. I'm taking the 4 points and I'm taking the over. And I really like the 6 point teaser as someone else has suggested. Very nice bet.

 

I usually win betting on the Superbowl and I look for that "trend" to continue.

[meanandgreene]

Geez, this just won't end.

 

When I start a topic, which is rare, I write what I believe in my heart and head to be helpful information to the people that read this free forum.

 

Then, here comes the new guy to the board.  Who not only feels compelled to disregard my post, but to then proceed to give me an unsolicited block long paragraph on Gambling 101.

 

You assume after reading my post that I know nothing about gambling strategy though my track record would prove otherwise.  You assume I am an idiot, so that makes me think "jerkwad."  That may prove wrong over time, but just a first impression.

 

Yes, you are correct. Every spin of roulette wheel is independent of the others. 

 

Yes, people that try to predict patterns from the number boards at the roulette table are deluding themselves strictly from a statistical pont of view.

 

Yes, people that base their gambling decisions strictly on trends usually shoot themselves in the foot. 

 

But every fool that has placed any number of bets knows that streaks happen.  Have you ever been in the casino and you keep hearing shouts form the craps table for 15 or 30 minutes?  That is the sign of a trend.  Do you walk up to that table and start betting against the trend?  Or do you join in the fun and line your pockets with the casino's money? 

 

If you bet with the trend and you are wrong, you lose once.  But if you bet against the trend you can get sucked into a losing streak that will kill you.  Much like I am doing right now with the Steelers.

 

One could argue at this point that the Steelers have covered the spread 3 weeks in a row on the road in the playoffs.  Therefore one could reasonably assume they will do it a 4th time. 

 

I have no argument with someone that wants to think like that.  It is perfectly logical to expect the Steelers to continue to steamroll like thay have been.

 

But that "trend" bucks against the one where the underdog covers the spread in the Superbowl.  And discounts the Seahawks own impressive streak.

 

Good luck to all who place wagers this week.  I'm taking the 4 points and I'm taking the over.  And I really like the 6 point teaser as someone else has suggested.  Very nice bet.

 

I usually win betting on the Superbowl and I look for that "trend" to continue.  

 

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i will speak no more on the subject...like i said.. we agree on some things .on others we can agree to disagree...no big woop...peace

Edited January 31, 2006 by meanandgreene