Wooters Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 Caveman, you are completely forgetting that any player can be a bust. Did you happen to peak at the NYG's schedule this year? Eli Manning is going to have a heck of a time trying to even get to the numbers he produced last year because of that schedule. Drafting Eli in the 4th round, coming off of 1 good season, when you could have gotten a QB 3 rounds later that will produce almost the same exact numbers was a mistake anyway you look at it. Unless you predict Eli to throw for 30+ TD's and 4,000+ yards, it was a mistake any way you slice it. I hope it works out for you, but again, you could have draft a QB with the same numbers 4 rounds later AND had a chance at a starting RB- instead you chose a QB with an impossible schedule and some chump RB 4 rounds later. You do the math. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted August 24, 2006 Author Share Posted August 24, 2006 Caveman, you are completely forgetting that any player can be a bust. Did you happen to peak at the NYG's schedule this year? Eli Manning is going to have a heck of a time trying to even get to the numbers he produced last year because of that schedule. Drafting Eli in the 4th round, coming off of 1 good season, when you could have gotten a QB 3 rounds later that will produce almost the same exact numbers was a mistake anyway you look at it. Unless you predict Eli to throw for 30+ TD's and 4,000+ yards, it was a mistake any way you slice it. I hope it works out for you, but again, you could have draft a QB with the same numbers 4 rounds later AND had a chance at a starting RB- instead you chose a QB with an impossible schedule and some chump RB 4 rounds later. You do the math. No...I am not forgetting that at all. What I am saying is that some players are much, much more likely to bust than others. I know, because I have drafted many of them. What I have learned is to avoid as many big risk, big upside players in rounds 1-3 as possible, because there are planty of (relatively) reliable players available. Nobody can predict what happened to a player like McAllister last year, but I don't call that a bust. That's bad luck. Kevin and Julius Jones were busts. Hey, roll the dice if it works for you. Taking players I think I can depend on to perform works for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 If someone in one of my leagues drafts Frank Gore, or Al Gore for that matter, ahead of Peyton Manning, he will make the draft pick while deservingly getting a reach-around from the remaining league members. He has 14 freaking CAREER NFL carries for 127 CAREER yards. Are you guys freaking kidding me? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 H1- a little more yards and carries than that- but yeah, I am with you on punishing anyone who does that. If it happened at my draft, the dude would pay for it for a long long time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 H1- a little more yards and carries than that- but yeah, I am with you on punishing anyone who does that. If it happened at my draft, the dude would pay for it for a long long time A little sarcasm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted August 24, 2006 Author Share Posted August 24, 2006 H1- a little more yards and carries than that- but yeah, I am with you on punishing anyone who does that. If it happened at my draft, the dude would pay for it for a long long time Ahh...the distinct whiffing sound of sarcasm going over someone's head... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 Ahh...the distinct whiffing sound of sarcasm going over someone's head... Yep, missed that one. I was too eager to pull a Big John on Hugh and drop some knowledge on his azz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wooters Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 Seems more like the sound of the "what have you done for me lately" whiff...or perhaps the "I don't know how to predict players' value" sound...or perhaps the "Frank Gore isn't a know commodity yet, so I'll say he sucks until he shows up top 15 on cheatsheets so I can just read off names and pretend that I have a clue" sound. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitpdub Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 Nice SF logo there On what non-homerism basis can you claim that Gore is a stud? What has he done to earn a 'stud' label? Is he more valuable on a fantasy team than Peyton Manning? Definently some homerism on my part, but at least I'm not going into hiding even if my team has been beaten silly these past few years. I did attempt to shed some light on the improvement of the Oline over last year, since I doubt most huddlers would waste any time watching any bit of a niners game. On your question, I don't know if even a blind homer would take Gore over Peyton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted August 24, 2006 Author Share Posted August 24, 2006 (edited) Yep, missed that one. I was too eager to pull a Big John on Hugh and drop some knowledge on his azz It's not easy to step into Big John's shoes... Hugh's got the right of it, though. Gore has not earned a high draft ranking, nor has the starting RB spot in SF been worthy of one since sliced bread was invented*. There are certainly moments in a draft when it is necessary to take a risk. In like 6 of my 7 drafts last year I jumped on LJ in round 4. I was even chastised in a mock by DMD for picking LJ early. All of those teams did well, though, as you can imagine. There is also drafting around a planned handcuff, where you might take some players at higher than normal draft values just for the sake of sewing up a team's backfield. I am just saying that every year people fall in love with unproven players, and every year they are wrong. Look what a few games by William Green a few years back did to so many of us.** *Note: More sarcasm here. FYI. ** Sorry DMD...couldn't resist Edited August 24, 2006 by Caveman_Nick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted August 24, 2006 Author Share Posted August 24, 2006 Seems more like the sound of the "what have you done for me lately" whiff...or perhaps the "I don't know how to predict players' value" sound...or perhaps the "Frank Gore isn't a know commodity yet, so I'll say he sucks until he shows up top 15 on cheatsheets so I can just read off names and pretend that I have a clue" sound. Riiiiiiight, because I have no clue. Or maybe it's because the SF backfield has been a consistantly low value spot for years on end, and that they not only have not built a consistant running game in the last several seasons, but they have no passing game to balance it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 Seems more like the sound of the "what have you done for me lately" whiff...or perhaps the "I don't know how to predict players' value" sound...or perhaps the "Frank Gore isn't a know commodity yet, so I'll say he sucks until he shows up top 15 on cheatsheets so I can just read off names and pretend that I have a clue" sound. Or perhaps the "I haven't done anything in the NFL yet and until I do I shouldn't be over-valued" or perhaps the "gee, he's the starting RB so he must be good so I'll pick him because I'm clueless". Probably more like that. Known commodity. Lol. You crack me up. We're talking about a Miami RB that's been on everyone's charts since he came to the NFL, but couldn't take the job from Kevan Barlow. He also happens to have an injury history. But hey, if you think he's going to be good, you must know what you're talking about, I mean, you base it on so many facts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wooters Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 Riiiiiiight, because I have no clue. Or maybe it's because the SF backfield has been a consistantly low value spot for years on end, and that they not only have not built a consistant running game in the last several seasons, but they have no passing game to balance it out. I wasn't talking about you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wooters Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 Or perhaps the "I haven't done anything in the NFL yet and until I do I shouldn't be over-valued" or perhaps the "gee, he's the starting RB so he must be good so I'll pick him because I'm clueless". Probably more like that. Known commodity. Lol. You crack me up. We're talking about a Miami RB that's been on everyone's charts since he came to the NFL, but couldn't take the job from Kevan Barlow. He also happens to have an injury history. But hey, if you think he's going to be good, you must know what you're talking about, I mean, you base it on so many facts. Wow. Overvalued? This thread was talking about taking him in the 4th round. How is that overvaluation? He didn't (not couldn't) take the job from Barlow because Barlow was the one making the money genius. Learn how the NFL works. If you get paid big bucks you are going to get every chance to earn that money. And no, not basing it on nothing. How about his 4.8 yards per carry last year. He racked up over 600 yards in limited work, on only 128 carries, on a team that is worse than this years team. Not to mention 131 receiving yards on only 15 receptions. If you fail to see the significance of taking a potential top 15 starting RB in the 4th round (and the LAST one available mind you) over a mediocre, run of the mill, I can get the same stats from that position several rounds later, QB- then I can't help you, however I would love to be in your league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 Wow. Overvalued? This thread was talking about taking him in the 4th round. How is that overvaluation? He didn't (not couldn't) take the job from Barlow because Barlow was the one making the money genius. Learn how the NFL works. If you get paid big bucks you are going to get every chance to earn that money. And no, not basing it on nothing. How about his 4.8 yards per carry last year. He racked up over 600 yards in limited work, on only 128 carries, on a team that is worse than this years team. Not to mention 131 receiving yards on only 15 receptions. If you fail to see the significance of taking a potential top 15 starting RB in the 4th round (and the LAST one available mind you) over a mediocre, run of the mill, I can get the same stats from that position several rounds later, QB- then I can't help you, however I would love to be in your league. Ahhh yes, when all else fails, the "I'd love to be in your league" line gets dropped. When you can make an argument based on some facts or insight, as opposed to "learn how the NFL works" which is about the lamest argument I've heard this year, although it is early, come back and see me. And as far as I'm concerned, which you would have noticed if you had any reading comprehension skills, the argument I'm making is about taking Peyton Manning over Frank Gore. Unless of course you consider Peyton a "mediocre, run of the mill, I can get the same stats from that position several rounds later, QB" QB. Good work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted August 25, 2006 Author Share Posted August 25, 2006 (edited) And no, not basing it on nothing. How about his 4.8 yards per carry last year. He racked up over 600 yards in limited work, on only 128 carries, on a team that is worse than this years team. Not to mention 131 receiving yards on only 15 receptions. Wooters, that is basing your opinion on nothing. It's anomally data. Here's some info for you that over the past few seasons has caused many FF experts to fall flat on their faces. Down the stretch numbers... William Green 2002 had a 6 game stretch to close the season in which he rushed for 632 yards on 148 carries for a 4.3 YPC average. He had 5 TDs in that stretch. Lee Suggs had a 4 game stretch to end the 2003 season in which he rushed for 441 yards on 102 carries for a 4.3 YPC average. No TDs, but still very good yardage. Kevan Barlow in 2003 rushed for 673 yards down the stretch over an 8 game span on 117 carries for a 5.8 YPC average. He also rushed for 5 TDs in that span Kevin Jones in 2004 rushed for a whopping 906 yards down the stretch over 8 games with 172 carries for a 5.3 YPC average. He had 4 TDs over that span. And these RBs have what in common? They were all significantly over valued in the following draft and ended up being worth less than a bag of wet footballs. Put whatever numbers you like to Frank Gore, but there is a very good, easily better than 50% chance that he will burn whoever picks him just like William Green, Lee Suggs, Kevin Jones, and Kevan Barlow (who Gore still couldn't beat out for a starting gig...) EDIT: FWIW, I am not saying that people don't need to make guesses and reach for predictions in FF. I am saying that in my drafts I put these players after ones that I think have a high percentage chance to score consistantly for my team. Edited August 25, 2006 by Caveman_Nick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted August 26, 2006 Share Posted August 26, 2006 I just don't draft Eli ... ever. San Diego Homerism kicks in here ... sorry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitpdub Posted September 10, 2006 Share Posted September 10, 2006 Is it too early to revisit this thread? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitpdub Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 Put whatever numbers you like to Frank Gore, but there is a very good, easily better than 50% chance that he will burn whoever picks him just like William Green, Lee Suggs, Kevin Jones, and Kevan Barlow (who Gore still couldn't beat out for a starting gig...) Well its safe to say that Gore did help a few people to wins this week and if you picked him up in the late rounds I would say he'll be a success. I have him as a 12th rounder in one league(keeper) and 4th rounder in another p.s Gore did beat out Barlow last year and this year as well. Maybe only a homer would know this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 but do you really think Gore has a chance to get near the top 10 in RBs running for the 9ers? You guys are forgetting that Norv Turner is in town. While he's not a great head coach, he may be the best cordinator in the league. Second, Mike Nolan has expressed that he wants to run the ball 60 percent of the time. Add together that they both love Frank Gore... I'd pick Al Gore before I ever took Frank Gore. The 49ers are the only team us Jets fans can make fun of! No, Jets and Packer fans are not allowed to make fun of any other team in the league. So again I'll point out that Frank Gore is not a top RB. He's an injury prone RB running on 2 reconstructed knees on the worst offense in the NFL. Sure, he's now 'the starter'. How did Kevin Jones work out last year? Or Julius? Jamal Lewis? Ahman Green? Look at the top 50 picks and see how many busts there were last year, particularly relative to the player's draft position. 25% + of the top 20 picks were busts including Peyton Manning (only of course because too many people went wacky greedy and expected 50 TDs). 1. Gore hasnt had a severe injury in over two years. Modern medicine is changing things, if you need more proof, look at Carson Palmer-his knee was torn up so bad, the doctor used the word amputate. 2. Kevin Jones lack of production was Mooches fault. His outlandish idea of rotating backs and abandoning the runninggame early was the cause. Julius Jones was injured, Jamal Lewis was out of shape, and Ahman Green BLEW OUT HIS QUAD. Frank Gore is hungry. Its still not too late to jump on the bandwagon. Im not projecting 30 points a game, but I do beleive he's a top ten back. If you watched the game, you'd know this. He has a chip on his shoulder and reminds me of Larry Johnson last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 Or maybe it's because the SF backfield has been a consistantly low value spot for years on end, and that they not only have not built a consistant running game in the last several seasons, but they have no passing game to balance it out. I think a lot of us get caught up in traditional thinking and fail to see when a team is clearly headed in the right direction. Mike Nolan will get the niners back to the respected franchise that it is. Over the past few years, they have not had a defensive minded coach or a good draft class. Nolan is the freaking man. They have a lot of depth on that offensive line, some receivers and tight ends that can make things happen, and Alex Smith looked vastly improved. If im a niner fan, im exstatic. Bryant went for 114, Gore went for 160 and 2td, and Vernon Davis is already showing that he is the real deal. I think this team will be not only good, but extremley good in a few years. Im on board the bandwagon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgcoach Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 yeah...gore is a #3 RB type...no higher then that. The niner offense won't be very good this year..they are still learning with Alex smith. #3, because he's on a team that has a bad off? There are r/bs that do well in spite of their teams bad O. I know one r/b in the hall if fame that played most of his career with a terrible line. Besides, the O didn't look that bad last night. I know it was Ariz. but, they have some bad def. left to deal with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 It was against the Cards. Let's hold off on handing him the Rushing title just yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDFFFreak Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 It was against the Cards. Let's hold off on handing him the Rushing title just yet. Agreed, but even though it was the Cards, the SF offense didn't look half bad. Barring injury, I think it's not a reach to say gore will be a top 10 back this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitpdub Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 Its nice to find old, "I told you so" threads. I wonder how many people are going with Eli over Frank Gore now. Hopefully the writer of this thread didn't convince too many against going with Frank and the opinion of a homer. Thanks Frank for a great season and leading the NFC in rushing and setting the all time niners rushing and combined yardage records Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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