Easy n Dirty Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 This is not a WDIS thread, just wanted to share some analysis I did, may or may not be helpful to other Fitz owners. I'm heading into my local league's semifinals, and like alot of Fitz owners, I'm wondering if he's a good start against Denver and a potential Champ Bailey matchup (see this thread also for discussion). On the one hand, Fitz is in a groove right now - he's the 4th highest scoring WR in the league over the past 3 weeks using conventional scoring. On the other hand, Bailey is probably the best shutdown corner in the league right now. I'm agonizing over this one, and I have some time on my hands, so I went back and took a look at how WRs have done in general against Denver so far this season. Answer? Not well at all. Through 13 games, only 3 WRs have hit double figures in fantasy points against Denver: Jurevicius with a 10.0 in week 7, Hines Ward with a 12.7 in week 9, and Reggie Wayne lit them up for 33.8 fantasy points in week 8. Also, if you make some judgment calls and identify a WR1 for each of their opponents, the WR1 position is averaging just under 6 fantasy points per game against Denver through 13 weeks (doesn't include Wayne's performance, my judgment call there was to call Harrison WR1 for Indy - admittedly arguable, but I'm fairly certain that Bailey would have been on Harrison for most if not all of that game as Harrison usually lines up to the right with Wayne to the left). Some of this may be skewed because Denver has played alot of teams that just don't get alot of production out of the WR position (Oakland, KC and SD twice each, as well as NE and Baltimore), but still they have been extremely stingy it seems against opposing wideouts. I'm gonna' have a tough time sitting Fitz this weekend, but this is definitely giving me pause for thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 ASYS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daboz Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 I'm gonna' have a tough time sitting Fitz this weekend, but this is definitely giving me pause for thought. Brave.... You sit him,,, Ill start him I go with the theory START UR STUDS Buy hay, maybe you benching him will piss of the FF-Gods and he'll go off for the rest of us Fitz owners. Good LUCK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T_bone65 Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 (edited) Brave.... You sit him,,, Ill start him I go with the theory START UR STUDS Buy hay, maybe you benching him will piss of the FF-Gods and he'll go off for the rest of us Fitz owners. Good LUCK I have Fitz on 2 of my 3 playoff teams this weekend. I also play against LT2 in 2 of my 3 playoffs this weekend. Edited December 13, 2006 by T_bone65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junebugz Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 Don't forget that T Holt had 7 receptions for 80 yards in Week 1 and also DJax had 6 receptions for 91 yards two weeks ago. Granted, no td's were given up to either, but not bad performances. Problem is, I wouldn't say that Leinart is in the same category of QB's of Bulger and Hasselbeck (although it wasn't the best game from Hass). Another interesting note is that in the SEA/DEN game Hass threw a long pass intended for DJax in the 3rd Q and Bailey intercepted it for a touchback. Denver's D can be beat, but I don't seem to think that Arizona is the team that can do it ... but then again I played KC's D against the Brownies a few weeks ago figuring they would do well What other options would you have? (Hope that doesn't turn this into a WDIS thread) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Easy n Dirty Posted December 13, 2006 Author Share Posted December 13, 2006 So far this season Fitz is averaging 9.83 fantasy points per game played - does that qualify him for ASYS status? If so, then the following are also every week starters, regardless of matchup - Lee Evans, Marty Booker, TJ Houshmandzadeh, and about 13 other guys. And guys like Lavernaeus Coles, Jerricho Crotchery and Reggie Brown are not far off. I'd have thought that ASYS was reserved for the top 5 or so at each position, I'm not sure that rule applies to Fitz right now - I suspect many of us have WRs on the bench who are not far behind him at all in terms of production, so playing matchups does become relevant. But it's close, that's why I'm doing the legwork. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 So far this season Fitz is averaging 9.83 fantasy points per game played - does that qualify him for ASYS status? If so, then the following are also every week starters, regardless of matchup - Lee Evans, Marty Booker, TJ Houshmandzadeh, and about 13 other guys. And guys like Lavernaeus Coles, Jerricho Crotchery and Reggie Brown are not far off. I'd have thought that ASYS was reserved for the top 5 or so at each position, I'm not sure that rule applies to Fitz right now - I suspect many of us have WRs on the bench who are not far behind him at all in terms of production, so playing matchups does become relevant. But it's close, that's why I'm doing the legwork. I'm reading Easy. I have Fitz in my big money league where I am currently in first place. We start 3 WRs and I am currently starting Fitz, Roy Williams, Colston. However, I have Bryant and Furry on the bench. I kind of want to go with Furry instead of Fitz, but I'm scared. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TC_Ute Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 So far this season Fitz is averaging 9.83 fantasy points per game played - does that qualify him for ASYS status? If so, then the following are also every week starters, regardless of matchup - Lee Evans, Marty Booker, TJ Houshmandzadeh, and about 13 other guys. And guys like Lavernaeus Coles, Jerricho Crotchery and Reggie Brown are not far off. I'd have thought that ASYS was reserved for the top 5 or so at each position, I'm not sure that rule applies to Fitz right now - I suspect many of us have WRs on the bench who are not far behind him at all in terms of production, so playing matchups does become relevant. But it's close, that's why I'm doing the legwork. I think many here would agree that Housh is tough to sit right now, as is Fitz. I've been agonizing about the Fitz vs. Bailey matchup this week as well. Problem is I have Boldin on my bench and just can't bring myself to substitute him for Fitz. Leinart seems to be locked in on Fitz as of late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NAUgrad Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 I'm still not completely sure that Fitz is going to lineup against Bailey. I think Boldin will have that luxury this week, which is why I've benched him for Booker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H8tank Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 Never, EVER bench your studs. EVER. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daboz Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 So far this season Fitz is averaging 9.83 fantasy points per game played - does that qualify him for ASYS status? For me he's averaged 14 for the last three games. Fitz was injured for while, didn't play some games and wasn't 100% in a few others. Hamstrings hurt WR's numbers for weeks, tuff to get over when accelerating and cutting. NOW he's fresh, the last three games he posted just under 300ys and 2 TDs. He's heatin up!!! IMHO he's a must start every week until he re-injures his hammy or shows me otherwise... Don’t sit ya Fitzzzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexgaddis Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 So far this season Fitz is averaging 9.83 fantasy points per game played - does that qualify him for ASYS status? what was CJ doing before his explosion?....now he's (I think) leading all WR's in yds... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Easy n Dirty Posted December 13, 2006 Author Share Posted December 13, 2006 what was CJ doing before his explosion?....now he's (I think) leading all WR's in yds... Do you consider Randy Moss a must start every week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H8tank Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 Do you consider Randy Moss a must start every week? Uhhmm, this isn't 1999. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonorator Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 (edited) most of this stuff comes back to the norm. if denver's D has been stingy, they are due to give up some points. remember, oakland had the #3 defense going into the cincy game and they moved the ball like a hot knife through butter ... (laughing at myself that i used that analogy) start fitz. Edited December 13, 2006 by tonorator Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 Do you consider Randy Moss a must start every week? different scenario's, though... at least fitz has Boldin and Johnson....oh and Edge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 also, I didn't have Moss in my top 10 by the time draft day came... he was about 17th... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DexterDew Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 very brave to post this topic since you will get the standard ASYS argument. which begs the question: what is the definition of a Stud? i think now that Fitz is healthy, he qualifies. and his numbers the last four weeks help to validate it. i was not looking forward to this weeks matchup for Fitz, but i got knocked out of my playoffs with the Fitz team. i think you have to start him because: he's been on a roll the QB is improving ARI will not be able to run on DEN he has the size, speed and talent to produce no matter who covers him he might not get Bailey on him, and if he does, he will probably be used in motion to create mismatches with that bum on the other side he will get his looks Good Luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furd Posted December 13, 2006 Share Posted December 13, 2006 Fitz, Caddy, Housh etc. . . I don't see how you can sit Fitzgerald, unless you have a really fine set of WRs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelerMurf Posted December 14, 2006 Share Posted December 14, 2006 ASYS.....OK who the heck do I bench this week out of these guys Fitz vs. Denver TJ Housh. vs. Indy Driver vs. Detroit I love having great WRs but picking the one to sit this week is just unbearable. Ironically in my other playoff league, I am going against TJ and Fitz (talk about a conflict of emotions) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daboz Posted December 14, 2006 Share Posted December 14, 2006 ASYS.....OK who the heck do I bench this week out of these guys Fitz vs. Denver TJ Housh. vs. Indy Driver vs. Detroit I love having great WRs but picking the one to sit this week is just unbearable. Ironically in my other playoff league, I am going against TJ and Fitz (talk about a conflict of emotions) That’s easy,,,, DRIVER he's injured! I would watch his status and if it doesn’t change much bench him... On Wednesday, the Packers listed WR Donald Driver (shoulder) as questionable for Week 15 vs. the Lions. Driver did not practice on Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice717 Posted December 14, 2006 Share Posted December 14, 2006 I have the same problem as I'm sure most everyone who has read this thread has. I have Stallworth and Furry to pick from as well. Furry has been a beast on the road and Garcia has been able to throw the ball deep...deeper than expected. Still I don't think I am going to sit Fitzy, his capabilities are too high. Besides I'm playin Boldin this week so I would love to see Champ on Boldin even though i dont think its going to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Easy n Dirty Posted December 14, 2006 Author Share Posted December 14, 2006 which begs the question: what is the definition of a Stud? i think now that Fitz is healthy, he qualifies. and his numbers the last four weeks help to validate it. Exactly, that's the question in a nutshell. Who qualifies for stud status, as in every week starter. I think this is a question that is most difficult to answer at WR. At QB, there are only a few guys now that demand to be started every week - McNabb when he was healthy, Brees, Manning and Palmer for sure, maybe Vick and Bulger. I'm not sure Brady makes this list at this point, as with everything else it's a function of who else you have. At RB, in most leagues of 12 or more teams it's kinda' moot because not too many teams have the luxury of going three deep at RB. Even a Chester taylor or Edge qualify as must starts every week just because you're unlikely to have depth at RB. At WR, I think it's alot fuzzier. Fitz probabbly qualifies based on what he's done last season as well as what he's done the past 3 weeks - but for me personally, Furrey against the Packers is tempting (I have Holt at WR1). As of now, I'm starting Fitz and I'm likely to stay that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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