Wild Card Weekend Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Guys - I'm back w/ my selections for Saturday. I just to let you know, I will be posting a very long message detailing the myths fabricated by ESPN. If you want the cliff notes version, you can read the bold.

 

I know reading a lot is not as fun - people just want the picks. But there is a lot of good info in there, so I encourage you to check it out and comment - agree or disagree, any feedback is appreciated.

[Steeltown Dre]

Just wanted to share some info. Betting is all about public perception. And it helps when ESPN is constantly blabbing all day about how the Chiefs drew the perfect matchup against the Colts. Saying how great KC's run O is and how terrible Indy's is. That is, it helps if you plan on betting on Indy. Keeps the line down.

 

I wanted to see if all this hype is "shock" to get people to tune in, or if it is actual fact.

 

ESPN Myth #1 - Indy has the worst rushing D in the league

 

We all know that over the course of the season, Indy has the #32 ranked rush D. That is a truth.

 

But you want to know something? Over the last 3 games, KC's run D has been WORSE than Indy's. KC's D has allowed 5.8 ypr to Indy's 4.8 ypr over the last 3 games. Neither are good, but KC has been terrible. Now I realize that KC played the #2 and #4 teams in the league in ypr during that span. While the toughest Indy faced was the #11 ypr offense of the Dolphins. Which is why I am an "ask why" type of guy. So let's ask: "Why"

 

Let's look closer at how the rush D's of each team perform in recent games. We already looked at the last 3 overall. Now let's look at the last 4 home games for Indy, and the last 4 road games for KC.

 

Indy's 4 most recent home games were vs. Miami, Cincy, Philly and Buffalo

 

Indy allowed 4.8 ypr to these teams (which happens to be the same as they gave over the last 3).

 

Those teams have an average rank (for rush offense) of 16.5, smack in the middle of the league, and on the season rushed for a cum avg of 4.1 ypr

 

KC's 4 most recent road games were at Oak, SD, Cle and Mia

 

KC allowed 5.1 ypr to these teams

 

And those 4 teams have an average rank of 15.5, again, smack in the middle of the league, and on the season rushed for a cum avg of 4.2 ypr

 

Conclusion: Whether looking at the last 3 overall or the last 4 home/away, Indy's miserable rush D has been better than KC's.

 

Truth #1 - While neither rush D is respectable, KC has actually had a worse run D than Indy during the past month or two

 

===============================================================

 

ESPN Myth #2 - KC drew the perfect matchup, Indy couldn't have drawn a worse matchup

 

If you want to look at rush O to see if there is some drastic reason why KC will dominate more on the ground than Indy, let's look at the rush O for both teams.

 

Over the last 3 games, KC has rushed for an avg of 4.1 ypr and Indy has averaged 4.4 ypr. Again, suprising advantage to Indy. Let's ask "Why?"

 

Looking again to the most recent 4 road/home games:

 

KC ran for an average of 4.4 ypr in their last 4 road games. Those 4 teams they faced gave up an avg of 4.0 ypr on the season.

 

Indy ran for an average of 4.7 ypr in those last 4 home games. Those 4 teams they faced gave up an avg of 4.2 ypr on the season.

 

Conclusion A: Despite the fact that Indy is a passing team (#2 in the league), they have been running the ball better than KC recently (L3), and recently at home (L4 @ H).

 

Who else may have KC drawn in the WC? I realize not the Jets, but let's include both NYJ and NE shall we:

 

NYJ have allowed 4.5 ypr their last 3, and NE has allowed 5.6 ypr their last 3. Remember, Indy has allowed 4.8 ypr their L3. So it's not like Indy (lately) has been absolutely flat out terrible in run D compared to other AFC WC teams.

 

Looking more at Myth #2, why not see if Indy didn't draw the perfect matchup?

 

No AFC WC team has allowed more passing yards the L3 than KC, who is allowing 189 ypg in the air. They also are tied w/ NE for the most ypattempt. KC is also allowing 62% completions in the L3, despite facing the high powered passing offenses of Jac, Oak and SD!!! And as we said earlier, we know how KC's rushing D has been lately - terrible.

 

Conculsion B: Indy may have drawn a better matchup than KC.

 

Truth #2 - Indy drew as good if not a better matchup w/ KC's defense (both in the air and on the ground) than KC drew w/ Indy's D.

 

===============================================================

 

ESPN Myth #3: KC will easily control the clock, and keep Peyton off the field

 

The other thing to remember is Indy is the best in the league at converting on 3rd down. Converting on 56%. KC is only converting on 40% of 3rd downs. And that is 40% on the season, as well as 40% in their L3 road games. In their L3 overall, they have only converted on 33% of 3rd downs!

 

The hype is that KC will be able to control the clock w/ the run game and keep Peyton off the field. Of course KC will try to do this, many teams have as well. But often times it is Peyton who is converting those 3rd downs and leading his team on time consuming drives (and putting up points on the other end). In the Cincy game, Indy scored 14 points in the 2nd quarter after 11 minutes of offense and scored another 14 in the 3rd quarter after 9 minutes of offense.

 

Do I see KC running the ball a lot? Yes. Do I see KC sustaining several long, scoring drives? Yes. But do I see them doing it as effectively and as frequently as Indy? No.

 

Truth #3 - Due to Indy's ability to convert on 3rd downs, as well as KC's poor pass and run D of late, Indy should be keeping KC off the field.

 

===============================================================

 

 

Myth #4: Indy MUST jump out to a big lead, or they don't have a chance against KC's ability to control the game

 

This plays off of Myth #3 and actually Myth #1 as well.

 

I also don't buy into all this ESPN "Indy must jump out to a big lead" talk. Are they suggesting Indy strategize to go up early, quickly? Doesn't every single team try to go up early, quickly? If they are suggesting Indy must get overly risky just to get a lead, I find that hard to believe.

 

Indy will be able to throw and run on KC, so long as the play calling is effective and unpredictable. On Defense, why should they be scared of the Chiefs running game any more than other opponents they have faced at home? As I said earlier, they have faced teams that average 4.1 ypr, and now are facing KC who has averaged 4.4 ypr recently, and 4.2 ypr over the course of the season. Not that much different than what they are used to facing. Sure, LJ is a star in the league, so combining that w/ Indy having the #32 rush D on the season hypes up the media.

 

Truth #4 - Indy should at a minimum be "alive" in this game, even if they go don't jump out to an early lead, and even if they go down 1TD. Indy should be able to sustain drives and put up points on KC, and by no means will they need to overextend themselves and "force" things early in the game just to jump out to an early lead.

 

===============================================================

 

Review of Myth and Truth:

 

ESPN Myth #1 - Indy has the worst rushing D in the league

Truth #1 - While neither rush D is respectable, KC has actually had a worse run D than Indy during the past month or two

 

ESPN Myth #2 - KC drew the perfect matchup, Indy couldn't have drawn a worse matchup

Truth #2 - Considering potential AFC opponents, Indy drew as good if not a better matchup w/ KC's defense (both in the air and on the ground) than KC drew w/ Indy's D.

 

ESPN Myth #3: KC will easily control the clock, and keep Peyton off the field

Truth #3 - Due to Indy's ability to convert on 3rd downs, as well as KC's poor pass and run D of late, Indy should be keeping KC off the field.

 

ESPN Myth #4: Indy MUST jump out to a big lead, or they don't have a chance against KC's ability to control the game

Truth #4 - Indy should at a minimum be "alive" in this game, even if they go don't jump out to an early lead, and even if they go down 1TD. Indy should be able to sustain drives and put up points on KC, and by no means will they need to overextend themselves and "force" things early in the game just to jump out to an early lead.

 

Final Comments:

 

It will not surprise me to see Indy run (yes I said run, and also pass) the ball effectively against KC and control the game. Mixing it up, game planning and game management are of course the key. Indy has recently beaten Cincy and Philly at home by an average of 21 points. However they have had close victories over Buf and Mia by an average of 3 points. I see this game falling somewhere in between. By no means am I suggesting Indy -7 is a top play or a superb play. I simply feel it is the right side.

 

Does Indy have problems w/ their run D? Yes, that is true, they do. Will it cost them THIS game? I will bet that it does not.

 

As I state above: Do I see KC running the ball a lot? Yes. Do I see KC sustaining several long, scoring drives? Yes. But do I see them doing it as effectively and as frequently as Indy? No.

 

My system shows Indy by 5.1 points. The only real thing I have in KC's favor is fewer full season penalty yardage, but if you look closer at that number you will see in the last 5 road games, KC has averaged 78 penalty ypg and Indy's L5 @ H are only averaging 69 penalty ypg. So that swings back to Indy's favor.

 

When you dig deeper than the system (doing the hard part and capping the game), I find a higher probability of Indy covering 6.5 than I do KC covering 7. I don't like to lay 7 points, so I will only lay some on -6.5, and work w/ Indy on a few teasers for a larger amount.

 

I will plan on laying 6.5 w/ Indy and will also tease down to pickem and pair it with Dallas +10. I may also look at other potential matchups on Sunday to tease with Indy pickem.

Edited January 5, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[rattsass]

Wow. Could you dig a little deeper for us next time?

 

I'm probably not the best person to take advice from on this game. I am, after all wearing my homer goggles. The Colts could very well jump out to an early lead in this game, and keep it. They have everything on their side including home field and playoff experience. But if you throw out all the other analysis, you are still left with a Colts team that chokes in the playoffs like nobody's business. They have been the best regular season team in the league over the last decade,and yet they have won 3 games in the playoffs.

 

And I can tell you that I have been on the wrong side of the Colts in nearly every playoff game they have blown. Fool me once shame on you. Fool me 10 times. Shame on me. My brain has now blocked my ability to lay any amount of points on the Colts for self preservation purposes. FOR ME there is only one way to bet the Colts in the playoffs, and that is with the other team. Lately, the Colts have been prohibitive favorites in almost every playoff game they have blown, with the opposing team facing seemingly insurmountable odds.

 

I've seen the movie before, and it always ends the same way. If I lose on the Chiefs this week, I will be doubling up against the Colts next week and get it all back. I can be trained.

 

I am also seeing the Cowboys getting lots of play against Seattle. Early in the week, I was leaning toward Dallas +2.5. As the week wears on I am thinking differently. The Cowboys have seemingly tuned out their Hall of Fame coach. And while the Seahawks have their own problems, I think they have enough left to take out this Cowboys team that can't seem to get off the mat. It very well could be a close game between these two disappointing franchises. So I don't blame you if you want to take the Cowboys and the points. But on my service, I have the Cowboys at +2.5 (+105) If you are taking the Cowboys I would strongly urge you to buy the extra half point to get you to 3.

 

If you are playing Seattle it makes no sense to lay 2.5 points at (-125). Just take the moneyline at -140, it is a much better bargain.

 

For Sunday I still like the Jets +8.5. The spread started too high, and it is still too high The Jets could win this game outright, and the moneyline pays nicely if you want to take your shot. The Patriots are getting too much public perception respect in this game. But this is not the team they were 2 years ago. To me the Jets are the only way to play this one. The Jets won the last time they met. They could do so again.

 

I have not changed my opinion on the Eagles v Giants. I don't really think it will even be close. Red hot against ice cold. Eagles big at home.

[godtomsatan]

Dre, when's your wife coming home? I'm getting worried about you.

[xMRogers]

While I'm on the Chiefs partially because I think NE and Philly are going to cover and in a HUGE dog year, especially late, I don't see the trend in the playoffs changing, and partially cause Indy just isn't that great,(and cause i have a 20-1 ticket on KC to win the SB from preseason) some of what is said makes sense.

 

The one thing I never understand is the "they'll keep Peyton off the field"....umm, is there a new rule that if you run 15 times in a row and score, you get the ball back? Or maybe they've mastered the onside kick and we'll be doing it every time?

 

time of possession sometimes matters and sometimes doesn't. In a game like this, I (a) don't know who will win that (unless KC goes up early -then they will), and ( don't know if it'll matter.

 

Now, in saying all that - I'm definitely willing to bet KC runs for many more yards than Indy. YPC may be about even honestly, but it'll be 50 carries for 250 yds vs 20 for 100...

 

Right now, I have KC/Dal ML with the Eagles (6.5), and KC+7/NE-8.5/Philly-6.5, plus straight bets on Phi/Dal/KC and NE

 

probably done, although I like the over in every game this weekend - truth is, none of the defenses are "great". he11, Mike and Mike on ESPN rated the Eagles defense (due to matchup) as the one to performt he best. I love that, but if the Eagles D is going to be the best D this weekend, we got 4 overs coming....

[The Wolf]

Are the Jets, getting 9 or 8.5 depending on where you look, the "trap" game this weekend? I am a Jets homer and NOT a betting man but I cannot help but think that taking the Jets is the way to go here. People talk about trap games all the time, however.

[rattsass]

Are the Jets, getting 9 or 8.5 depending on where you look, the "trap" game this weekend? I am a Jets homer and NOT a betting man but I cannot help but think that taking the Jets is the way to go here. People talk about trap games all the time, however.

 

 

I see it the other way. The Pats are the "trap" bet.

[Steeltown Dre]

Are the Jets, getting 9 or 8.5 depending on where you look, the "trap" game this weekend? I am a Jets homer and NOT a betting man but I cannot help but think that taking the Jets is the way to go here. People talk about trap games all the time, however.

 

 

If it is a trap, then the public is going to get burned badly.

 

In the most lopsided wagering of any WC game this weekend, 63% of ATS bets and 69% of ML bets have been placed on NYJ.

[Steeltown Dre]

I saw this posted elsewhere.

 

Here is a great article from the WSJ on Dr. Bob:

 

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB1167...NTkwNjUwWj.html

 

Very good read. Just shows you how winning $ in the long run is important and very difficult. According to the article:

 

"Experts say there may be fewer than 100 people who can sustain these rates (53%-55% winning to make a profit) over time. Most of them belong to professional betting syndicates that hire teams of statisticians, wager millions every week and keep their operations secret."

 

Dr. Bob has been pretty poor in the NFL this year and is 1-4 in bowls according to the article. It's a up and down lifestyle - the key is to win $ each year...

[Steeltown Dre]

Dre, when's your wife coming home? I'm getting worried about you.

 

 

 

 

As well as these methods have worked, they have done nothing to cut his workload. In the months when basketball and football overlap, Mr. Stoll works 18 hours a day nearly every day, sleeping in bursts of no more than four hours. The carpet below his desk chair has been worn bald. "I tell him to stand up so he doesn't get blood clots in his legs," his wife says.Much of his time is spent making tiny adjustments. If a team lost 12 yards on a running play, he checks the game summary to make sure it wasn't a botched punt. He compensates for the strength of every team's opponents. It takes him eight hours just to calculate a rating he invented to measure special teams. Trivial as this seems, Mr. Stoll says the extra work makes his predictions 4% better.http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB116796079037267731-lMyQjAxMDE3NjA3NTkwNjUwWj.html

 

 

I guess the difference is he's making bank and I'm just an amatuer.

Edited January 5, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[rattsass]

The late money for todays games seems to be coming in on the Cowboys and Colts. Cowboys now +2 and Colts -7(-120) at my source.

 

Good news for those of you betting the other way. At this rate the Colts might make it to 7.5 point favorites before gametime, so if you are going K.C. you might wait it out and see if you can get that half point.

[Vet]

How many touchdown+ underdogs have won an NFL playoff game on the road?

 

You guys are putting yourselves out there as experts...surely you can help me out with this simple question.

[kerwin8]

For those of you who follow college basketball, what do you think of the UConn-LSU line?

 

It's currently showing UConn +5

 

UConn (11-1) is ranked 18/14 in the polls, while LSU (10-3) is ranked 14/19. UConn hasn't beaten anyone noteworthy yet this season, and their only loss came to West Virginia 2 games ago. I don't know really anything about the team this year, but UConn has a pretty consistently good basketball program lately. One more thing to add is that their only loss came in their only away game so far this season.

 

LSU, on the other hand, has lost only one home game, albeit it was to a Wichita State team that has drastically fallen off the rankings after losing 4 in a row. I was at the Washington-LSU game a few weeks back and I was definitely not impressed with them. Outside of Glen Davis, there just doesn't seem to be a whole lot of talent on the team (again though, I don't know too much about this program other than what I saw and what I'm looking at with their schedule).

 

One more thing I can add is that, during the UW-LSU game, the 6'11" Spencer Hawes absolutely dominated Glen Davis and Washington held him to 8 points on just 2 made field goals. If all it takes to shut down Davis (and LSU) is a big man with some talent, then UConn has all they need with freshman Hasheem Thabeet. The guy is 7'3", a top 10 center in his recruiting class, and is averaging 4.2 blocks per game so far with a single-game high of 10. From my perspective, the only thing LSU has going for them in this one is that they get to play at home.

 

For now, I'm planning to take UConn to win SU and possibly taking the 5 points on a smaller bet. Good luck to anyone else who follows suit.

Edited January 6, 2007 by kerwin8

[rattsass]

How many touchdown+ underdogs have won an NFL playoff game on the road?

 

You guys are putting yourselves out there as experts...surely you can help me out with this simple question.

 

 

I don't know where you get the idea we are putting ourselves out there as experts. We are just discussing our opinions. I have a 66% win rate with my weekly pick, so I feel somewhat qualified to offer opinions to try and help others beat the man. I don't think any of us consider ourselves experts. Just a little better than Joe Public and Shady Mcbookie.

 

Favorites of 7 points or more are 29-7 SU & 22-14 ATS (61.1%) in the last 14 playoff seasons, including 16-6 SU & 11-10-1 ATS (52.4%) from double-digit favorites.

 

I addition, double digit dogs have won only twice outright since the start of the decade.

Edited January 6, 2007 by rattsass

[Steeltown Dre]

Good stuff ratt.

 

In addition, some things that affect the Indy/KC game and the NE/NYJ game:

 

Playoff teams with a .10% or higher winning percentage are 22-9 ats if favored by less than dd s 94

 

Here's the betting % right now:

 

After almost 99K bets placed:

 

ATS:

Indy 60%

KC 40%

 

ML:

Indy 58%

KC 42%

 

ATS:

Dal 56%

Sea 44%

 

ML:

Dal 58%

Sea 42%

 

You know where I am on today's games. Indy -6.5, 7 point teaser: Indy pickem and Dallas +10

 

Not thrilled that I am on major public action, but it is what it is.

 

It's was like Christmas Eve last night... very ready for the playoff season to get started. Everyone post your picks and let's hope we all end up $ at the end of the night.

[Vet]

Favorites of 7 points or more are 29-7 SU & 22-14 ATS (61.1%) in the last 14 playoff seasons, including 16-6 SU & 11-10-1 ATS (52.4%) from double-digit favorites.

 

I addition, double digit dogs have won only twice outright since the start of the decade.

 

 

 

Thanks

 

 

Doesn't bode well for my Jets, though, does it?

[Vet]

I have a 66% win rate with my weekly pick, so I feel somewhat qualified to offer opinions to try and help others beat the man.

 

[rattsass]

 

 

You seem to like statistics, so I threw that one out there.

 

Here are a few more stastistics I found for those jumping on the Dallas bandwagon. This isn't pretty.

 

* SEATTLE is 12-2 against the money line when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons.

 

* Road teams (DALLAS) off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season are 41-15 since 1997. 

 

* Following line movements towards a road team (following the money -public betting the road team) would have resulted in just a 16-25-3 ATS record in the playoffs.

[rattsass]

You seem to like statistics, so I threw that one out there.

 

Here are a few more stastistics I found for those jumping on the Dallas bandwagon. This isn't pretty.

 

* SEATTLE is 12-2 against the money line when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons.

 

* Road teams (DALLAS) off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season are 41-15 since 1997. 

 

* Following line movements towards a road team (following the money -public betting the road team) would have resulted in just a 16-25-3 ATS record in the playoffs.

 

 

That middle stat is of course through the regular season, but still presents a strong case for Dallas. The other two stats present a strong case for Seattle. I've seldom been so unsure about a playoff game ever. I took Dallas +3 early in the week with some parlays, but also added a Seattle +3.5 with a teaser, so I am riding the fence, and hoping fopr a field goal game. Which is pretty much what I expect.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

i just took

 

KC +7

Jets + 8-1/2

[crispirons]

i still haven't decided how i'm throwing my money down. i'm leaving for the book in a few though. prolly take cheifs first half +4 with the under 26.5. maybe take a chance on the unders on both these games.

[Vet]

You seem to like statistics, so I threw that one out there.

 

Here are a few more stastistics I found for those jumping on the Dallas bandwagon. This isn't pretty.

 

* SEATTLE is 12-2 against the money line when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons.

 

* Road teams (DALLAS) off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season are 41-15 since 1997. 

 

* Following line movements towards a road team (following the money -public betting the road team) would have resulted in just a 16-25-3 ATS record in the playoffs.

 

 

 

Good stuff, thanks. None of this bodes well for my Jets, especially your third point there.

 

I put one unit on Indy -7 and Dallas +2 individually, and also parlayed the two.

 

I'll probably avoid the Jets game (can't let the heart interfere with the wallet). I think Philly will embarrass the Giants.

[wildcat2334]

Sea homer - but I rarelyy play them normally - I am all over Seattle -2 - I think this is a great spot for them -

 

- Sea at home, giving less than 3?

 

Dall - is a mess, Romo on the road in the loudest stadium in the NFL? over under for false starts is 7

 

Sea will get the Boys -

[kerwin8]

I'm going to go ahead and guess that I may have seen the last of that money I put on the OVER for this colts game...

[Steeltown Dre]

 

Review of Myth and Truth:

 

ESPN Myth #1 - Indy has the worst rushing D in the league

Truth #1 - While neither rush D is respectable, KC has actually had a worse run D than Indy during the past month or two

 

 

 

KC allowed Indy to rush for 188 yards and averaged 4.7 ypr.

 

ESPN Myth #2 - KC drew the perfect matchup, Indy couldn't have drawn a worse matchup

Truth #2 - Considering potential AFC opponents, Indy drew as good if not a better matchup w/ KC's defense (both in the air and on the ground) than KC drew w/ Indy's D.

 

Indy had exceptional balance, 40 rushes and 39 passes. KC couldn't do anything.

 

ESPN Myth #3: KC will easily control the clock, and keep Peyton off the field

Truth #3 - Due to Indy's ability to convert on 3rd downs, as well as KC's poor pass and run D of late, Indy should be keeping KC off the field.

 

Indy converted on 50% of thier 3rd downs and had twice the TOP as KC! 40 minutes for Indy to only 20 for KC.

 

ESPN Myth #4: Indy MUST jump out to a big lead, or they don't have a chance against KC's ability to control the game

Truth #4 - Indy should at a minimum be "alive" in this game, even if they go don't jump out to an early lead, and even if they go down 1TD. Indy should be able to sustain drives and put up points on KC, and by no means will they need to overextend themselves and "force" things early in the game just to jump out to an early lead.

 

Indy didn't force a single thing. I'd love to see a passing chart, but I don't remember a pass more than 20 yards, maybe one or two into the endzone. They controlled the clock & moved the ball down the field. Even when Peyton turned it over 3 times, they never got concerned or tried to force anything - the turnovers were just poorly read adjustments by either the WR or QB.

 

Hope you all cashed on this. Now we need Dallas +10. I've contemplated taking Sea on an alt line of -7.5 for +229, as I have a decent amount in the Indy/Dallas teaser. Not sure yet, but very happy about the Indy game and up some decent $ as of now...