Looking for a few more prop bet opinions

[whomper]

I have a very strong opinion on all of these..I just want to throw them out there and get some opinions

 

 

Thomas Jones total Rec yds over/ under 10.5 yds

 

Cedric Bensons total rec yards over/ under 4.5 yds

 

Shortest TD over/ under is 1.5 ( if you take the over the only thing that can beat you is a 1 yard td )

 

Addai total rec yards over / under 22.5

 

Bears total Sacks over / under 1

 

what do you think ?

Edited February 1, 2007 by whomper

[isleseeya]

Tough whomp ...I like addai to grab more than 22.5 yards in receiving ....I think with bears pass rush , peyton may have to dump off a bit more ..and I also like shortest td to be over 1.5 yards

 

Good luck

[whomper]

urto

 

help a fellow degenerate

[Caveman_Nick]

 

Thomas Jones total Rec yds over/ under 10.5 yds

 

Cedric Bensons total rec yards over/ under 4.5 yds n/a

 

Shortest TD over/ under is 1.5 ( if you take the over the only thing that can beat you is a 1 yard td )

 

Addai total rec yards over / under 22.5 n/a

 

Bears total Sacks over / under 1

 

what do you think ?

 

[rattsass]

The shortest TD one is interesting, but I wouldn't mess with it. Didn't the Bears have a couple of 1st and goal situations against the Saints? I think they had at least one if not 2 or 3.

 

With a bet like that you can get burned by a pass interference call, or any number of ways. I expect there will be a fair number of posessions in this game. It is a tempting bet, I know. But I think there are better options. (if such a thing is possible with prop bets)

 

I would advise people to take it easy on the props. Bet a couple for a little, but don't go hog wild. You don't want your winning side bet eaten up, which is exactly what prop bets do.

 

That being said, I did see a prop bet play that I liked. Not sure I would play it myself, but it is an interesting idea. Take Manning at +105 to win MVP. And take the Bears ML at +200.

 

It seems like the ultimate insurance for those betting on the Colts Sunday. Granted, Manning isn't a lock to win the MVP......but come on now, if the Colts win, the league wants their Golden Boy hoisting the trophy.

 

It is almost like a free +100 bet on the Bears.

Edited February 1, 2007 by rattsass

[xMRogers]

Ones I put some jack on so far:

 

Coin Toss (always do....in theory, it's the only true 50-50 bet you ever get)

 

Longest KO return - although I like Hester to possibly break one, Colts were getting 160 on this - for something like this, seemed like good value considering they do a pretty good job on returning kicks themselves.

 

First Interception - bears were getting good odds - they made it a Rex vs Peyton bet, but Peyton's thrown a few in the playoffs and more importantly the Bears D shouldn't be getting +185 on that...

 

First to score - I always pick 5 guys with decent odds - had Roeth last year (20 to 1) and Branch year before (10 to 1). This year on both QB's, Rhodes, Desmond Clark and field.

 

 

Of the ones above, I like the Bears Sacks and Benson's rec yds over.

[whomper]

Ones I put some jack on so far:

 

Coin Toss (always do....in theory, it's the only true 50-50 bet you ever get)

 

Longest KO return - although I like Hester to possibly break one, Colts were getting 160 on this - for something like this, seemed like good value considering they do a pretty good job on returning kicks themselves.

 

First Interception - bears were getting good odds - they made it a Rex vs Peyton bet, but Peyton's thrown a few in the playoffs and more importantly the Bears D shouldn't be getting +185 on that...

 

First to score - I always pick 5 guys with decent odds - had Roeth last year (20 to 1) and Branch year before (10 to 1). This year on both QB's, Rhodes, Desmond Clark and field.

Of the ones above, I like the Bears Sacks and Benson's rec yds over.

 

 

I had Roth last year..It was sweet

Edited February 1, 2007 by whomper

[Bronco Billy]

Thomas Jones total Rec yds over/ under 10.5 yds

 

Jones has exceeded 10.5 yds receiving in only 7 of 16 games this season, and has had 2 yds or less receiving in 6 of 16 games. IND has allowed more than 10.5 yds receiving to the primary catching RB in 8 of 16 games. When you look at teams that have O philosophies similar to CHI regarding throwing to RBs (I looked at TEN, DEN, CIN, HOU, BUF, & MIA) the primary receiving RB exceeded 4.5 yds in 2 of 8 games.

 

Looks to dicey to play to me. If I had to lean on this one it would be the under.

 

Cedric Bensons total rec yards over/ under 4.5 yds

 

Benson has only exceeded 4.5 yds receiving in 4 of 16 games this year, while having 0 or less receiving yards in 10 of 16 games. IND has allowed more than 4.5 yds receiving to the secondary catching RB in 6 of 16 games. When you look at teams that have O philosophies similar to CHI regarding throwing to RBs (I looked at TEN, DEN, CIN, HOU, BUF, & MIA) the secondary receiving RB exceeded 4.5 yds in 2 of 8 games.

 

The under looks like a much better bet here. The only thing that would make me hesitate is that CHI has been throwing the ball to Benson more lately. He’s exceeded 4.5 yds receiving in 3 of his last 4 games, but the caveat being he was shut out against NO. I don’t think I’d touch this one.

 

Shortest TD over/ under is 1.5 ( if you take the over the only thing that can beat you is a 1 yard td )

 

Complete toss up. Will CHI have the ball on the 1 ever? If so, will they run it in – most probably. This is a sucker play. Toss a coin for money instead. There’s no edge either way that I can see.

 

Addai total rec yards over / under 22.5

 

Addai had only exceeded 22.5 yds receiving in 5 of 16 games. He has hit 22 yds twice & 20 yds once, so he was damn close in 3 more. CHI allowed more than 22.5 yd receiving to the primary receiving RB in 9 of 16 games, and also gave up more than 22.5 rec yds to RBs to 2 RBs vs NE. Teams that throw a bit to their RBs (GB, DET, MIN, NYG, NYJ, NE, & TB) had more than 22.5 yds receiving in 8 of 10 games, again with a double dip by NE.

 

I think given the O philosophy of IND that Addai gaining more than 22.5 yds receiving is a pretty good bet - especially since IND is sure to try to burn CHI early to try to reduce the pass rush they'll be bringing.

 

Bears total Sacks over / under 1

 

This looks like an easy one. CHI averaged 2.5 sacks per game regular season, while IND gave up just under 1.0 sacks per game regular season. However, in the post season IND is averaging giving up 1.6 sacks per game while CHI is averaging 3.0 sacks per game. Add to that CHI knowing it has to rough up Manning to get him off his game, so they figure to bring a ton of pressure early, and I’d say this is one of the best bets on the board for the over.

Edited February 1, 2007 by Bronco Billy

[Bronco Billy]

PS - do a little homework yourself before you make any bets.

[crispirons]

in a game where most figure the bears will run, on the rb props for under yardage i would go with OVER on JONES and UNDER on BENSON. the sacks total might be a push but i would take the over. the bears will get one for sure. like rat said, a PI penalty could squat that 1.5 yd touchdown prop in a heartbeat. might not be one, but pretty chancey. i posted it in another thread, but look at the berrian props. i think he will catch a bomb or two and exploit those numbers.

[whomper]

Thomas Jones total Rec yds over/ under 10.5 yds

 

Jones has exceeded 10.5 yds receiving in only 7 of 16 games this season, and has had 2 yds or less receiving in 6 of 16 games. IND has allowed more than 10.5 yds receiving to the primary catching RB in 8 of 16 games. When you look at teams that have O philosophies similar to CHI regarding throwing to RBs (I looked at TEN, DEN, CIN, HOU, BUF, & MIA) the primary receiving RB exceeded 4.5 yds in 2 of 8 games.

 

Looks to dicey to play to me. If I had to lean on this one it would be the under.

 

Cedric Bensons total rec yards over/ under 4.5 yds

 

Benson has only exceeded 4.5 yds receiving in 4 of 16 games this year, while having 0 or less receiving yards in 10 of 16 games. IND has allowed more than 4.5 yds receiving to the secondary catching RB in 6 of 16 games. When you look at teams that have O philosophies similar to CHI regarding throwing to RBs (I looked at TEN, DEN, CIN, HOU, BUF, & MIA) the secondary receiving RB exceeded 4.5 yds in 2 of 8 games.

 

The under looks like a much better bet here. The only thing that would make me hesitate is that CHI has been throwing the ball to Benson more lately. He’s exceeded 4.5 yds receiving in 3 of his last 4 games, but the caveat being he was shut out against NO. I don’t think I’d touch this one.

 

Shortest TD over/ under is 1.5 ( if you take the over the only thing that can beat you is a 1 yard td )

 

Complete toss up. Will CHI have the ball on the 1 ever? If so, will they run it in – most probably. This is a sucker play. Toss a coin for money instead. There’s no edge either way that I can see.

 

Addai total rec yards over / under 22.5

 

Addai had only exceeded 22.5 yds receiving in 5 of 16 games. He has hit 22 yds twice & 20 yds once, so he was damn close in 3 more. CHI allowed more than 22.5 yd receiving to the primary receiving RB in 9 of 16 games, and also gave up more than 22.5 rec yds to RBs to 2 RBs vs NE. Teams that throw a bit to their RBs (GB, DET, MIN, NYG, NYJ, NE, & TB) had more than 22.5 yds receiving in 8 of 10 games, again with a double dip by NE.

 

I think given the O philosophy of IND that Addai gaining more than 22.5 yds receiving is a pretty good bet - especially since IND is sure to try to burn CHI early to try to reduce the pass rush they'll be bringing.

 

Bears total Sacks over / under 1

 

This looks like an easy one. CHI averaged 2.5 sacks per game regular season, while IND gave up just under 1.0 sacks per game regular season. However, in the post season IND is averaging giving up 1.6 sacks per game while CHI is averaging 3.0 sacks per game. Add to that CHI knowing it has to rough up Manning to get him off his game, so they figure to bring a ton of pressure early, and I’d say this is one of the best bets on the board for the over.

 

 

 

Thanks a million

 

PS - do a little homework yourself before you make any bets.

 

 

 

[Bronco Billy]