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Detroit - like having the Lions isn't bad enough....


Hugh 0ne
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boy those are some ground breaking stats you dug up their hugh. next you are going to tell me that Detroit, St.Louis and DC have high murder rates.

 

but the point about puddy is right on. :wacko:

Edited by chiefjay
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Dropout statistics are highly inaccurate. A kid transferring to a new high school and graduating over the summer count as drop outs.

:wacko: So, that accounts for how many kids? Enough to make it like 30% graduate instead of only 25%?

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:D So, that accounts for how many kids? Enough to make it like 30% graduate instead of only 25%?

 

 

Well ok then, no story here folks, Detroit is doing great! :wacko:

Obviously Detroit has problems. Using bogus numbers doesn't help.

Edited by Egret
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Obviously Detroit has problems. Using bogus numbers doesn't help.

Not so much bogus unless every other city in the country is counting them differently. To be honest, it does seem strange that the type of kid you mentioned is thought of as a drop-out but maybe they just put them in with drop outs because there aren't enough to change the numbers in any meaningful manner.

 

If that is the case, then it would seem more "bogus" to point to that as an excuse for why the numbers are so bad. I mean, really, what would the numbers be if they were not counted as drop outs, 25.2%? 27%?

 

Now, if you can point to some data that shows that there's a disproportional amount of kids who move from one school to the next in Detroit, your claim would matter.

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Is Denny McLain still king of Macomb Mall?

 

Thats what is most important

 

I know that mall. I'm a Real Estate Manager for a national retail chain and I just presented a deal this past Monday to relocate out of that mall.

 

Small world.

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Obviously Detroit has problems. Using bogus numbers doesn't help.

 

 

That's the truth. Academia has all kinds of stupid rules for calculating graduation apparently.

 

That was part of the problem with Huggins and the Cincinnati Bearcats with the 0% graduation rate that ESPN loved to shout about years ago. Transfers into or out of a program don't count towards graduation numbers even if they graduate on time. Players that go play ball and then graduate a couple years later don't count. Its like someone made a system up back in 1930, and nobody ever looked to see if it was giving them useful information.

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Not so much bogus unless every other city in the country is counting them differently. To be honest, it does seem strange that the type of kid you mentioned is thought of as a drop-out but maybe they just put them in with drop outs because there aren't enough to change the numbers in any meaningful manner.

 

If that is the case, then it would seem more "bogus" to point to that as an excuse for why the numbers are so bad. I mean, really, what would the numbers be if they were not counted as drop outs, 25.2%? 27%?

 

Now, if you can point to some data that shows that there's a disproportional amount of kids who move from one school to the next in Detroit, your claim would matter.

 

Trut but it might be difficult or too much trouble to figure out if a kid dropped out or merely trasnferred to a white school district. :wacko:

Edited by chiefjay
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Not so much bogus unless every other city in the country is counting them differently. To be honest, it does seem strange that the type of kid you mentioned is thought of as a drop-out but maybe they just put them in with drop outs because there aren't enough to change the numbers in any meaningful manner.

 

If that is the case, then it would seem more "bogus" to point to that as an excuse for why the numbers are so bad. I mean, really, what would the numbers be if they were not counted as drop outs, 25.2%? 27%?

 

Now, if you can point to some data that shows that there's a disproportional amount of kids who move from one school to the next in Detroit, your claim would matter.

Here you go. Transfer outs count against the formula too. The formula is on page two of this report.

 

Basically if a kid moves away, dies, or does anything that does not allow him to graduate with the class he starts with in 9th grade, it counts against the graduation rate. People in poverty tend to move more than people out of poverty. It affects the graduation rate.

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Here you go. Transfer outs count against the formula too. The formula is on page two of this report.

 

Basically if a kid moves away, dies, or does anything that does not allow him to graduate with the class he starts with in 9th grade, it counts against the graduation rate. People in poverty tend to move more than people out of poverty. It affects the graduation rate.

Do they move out of the Detroit area? It seems that the formula you gave me subtracts those that leave but adds those that arrive from other districts. So, provided these kids are moving from one district in Detroit to another. Hell provided there's not some significant migration of kids from Detroit, etc to places that have higher graduation rates, then it should be a wash. With the exception of kids who die (which I might add is fair to consider as a negative in areas that have a higher than normal death rate), this is a net zero situation. You rate goes down for all who leave and goes up for all who arrive.

 

So, to show that this data is flawed, it needs to be proven that, not only do kids in Detroit move more often than others, more are moving away than moving to the district. Maybe this is true. Is it?

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Do they move out of the Detroit area? It seems that the formula you gave me subtracts those that leave but adds those that arrive from other districts. So, provided these kids are moving from one district in Detroit to another. Hell provided there's not some significant migration of kids from Detroit, etc to places that have higher graduation rates, then it should be a wash. With the exception of kids who die (which I might add is fair to consider as a negative in areas that have a higher than normal death rate), this is a net zero situation. You rate goes down for all who leave and goes up for all who arrive.

 

So, to show that this data is flawed, it needs to be proven that, not only do kids in Detroit move more often than others, more are moving away than moving to the district. Maybe this is true. Is it?

From what I was told by my special education director, if a student moves within the district it counts as a dropout as well. I'd wager to guess that there's not too many folks moving into Detroit for high school. The city of Detroit lost ~80,000 people between 2000 and 2005. I would guess a portion of those people were in school. I know that the Detroit schools are a mess. That doesn't take a rocket engineer to figure out.

 

My point was that if you're going to say it's bad that the data should accurately reflect the problem, not exaggerate it.

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From what I was told by my special education director, if a student moves within the district it counts as a dropout as well. I'd wager to guess that there's not too many folks moving into Detroit for high school. The city of Detroit lost ~80,000 people between 2000 and 2005. I would guess a portion of those people were in school. I know that the Detroit schools are a mess. That doesn't take a rocket engineer to figure out.

 

My point was that if you're going to say it's bad that the data should accurately reflect the problem, not exaggerate it.

Based on the formula you gave me that showed transfers in as part of the equation, my guess is the only reason transfers out count against graduation rates are to not allow transfers in to inflate how good the numbers are. In essence to create an overall net zero in terms of at least that portion of the variables.

 

OK then, so 2000 census shows Detroit's population at 951,000 and you say the population dropped 80,000 over the last 5 years. That means the population went down 1.7% each year. I can't think of any reason why a disproportional number of those people were in High School, so let's just assume that 1.7% of High School kids left the city each year.

 

So, as I imagined, the data goes from 25% graduation rate to a whopping 26.7% graduation rate when you take into account these kids (assuming that 100% of those who moved away would have graduated had they stayed which rather obviously would not have happened).

 

Sorry if this seems like piling on but, again, I really feel that bringing this up as some significant reason for why the numbers are as bad as they are is less genuine than posting data that might paint a slightly worse picture than there really is.

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Based on the formula you gave me that showed transfers in as part of the equation, my guess is the only reason transfers out count against graduation rates are to not allow transfers in to inflate how good the numbers are. In essence to create an overall net zero in terms of at least that portion of the variables.

 

OK then, so 2000 census shows Detroit's population at 951,000 and you say the population dropped 80,000 over the last 5 years. That means the population went down 1.7% each year. I can't think of any reason why a disproportional number of those people were in High School, so let's just assume that 1.7% of High School kids left the city each year.

 

So, as I imagined, the data goes from 25% graduation rate to a whopping 26.7% graduation rate when you take into account these kids (assuming that 100% of those who moved away would have graduated had they stayed which rather obviously would not have happened).

 

Sorry if this seems like piling on but, again, I really feel that bringing this up as some significant reason for why the numbers are as bad as they are is less genuine than posting data that might paint a slightly worse picture than there really is.

Well, if what Egret is saying is true, and they are making the statistics look a little worse than they really are, how can that possibly hurt? Hey... :wacko: , you've got an f'n problem in Detroit with graduation rates no matter how you like to sugar coat it...lets do something about it. Maybe that is why they inflate the numbers, if that is in fact, what is happening.

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